Iron Ore: The steel plant has increased overhaul and the iron ore is under pressure.

Logic and perspective:

The main iron ore contract opened lower at night. It continued to fall in the morning, hitting 518.5 yuan/ton, a record low since February 2019. It rebounded slightly in the afternoon, and finally closed down 4.62% to 536.5 yuan/ton. In terms of spot, the port spot price of imported iron ore kept falling in the afternoon, with a cumulative decline of 5-55 yuan/WT throughout the day. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 600-610 yuan/ WT, and SSF 375-380 yuan/ WT.

On the supply side, the total inventory of 45 ports this Monday was 14.9263 million tons, and last Monday figure was 146,496,300 tons. This week's port inventory increased by 2.767 million tons from the previous month. In terms of sub-regions, port inventories in all districts have increased. On the demand side, according to Mesteel's incomplete statistics, 28 steel mills across the country issued maintenance plans in November, including 10 sample steel mills in Shanxi. There are 2 steel plants in Zhejiang for maintenance and 16 steel plants in other regions. The increase in overhauls of steel plants has put pressure on iron ore demand. Downstream, the data released by Ganggu.com today showed that the national building materials production decreased by 95,500 tons this week, the hot coil production increased by 23,000 tons, and the steel output decreased overall.

On the whole, the expected increase in the supply of iron ore in the short and medium term remains unchanged, and the demand side remains weak. In addition, after the sharp drop in steel prices, the profit of steel mills has been severely compressed and the drive for restocking in winter is weak, making it difficult to change the pattern of loose supply and demand in the medium term. It is expected that the market will remain volatile in the short term. The recent decline has been too large, and it is recommended to wait and see strategically.

Strategies:

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: The price of raw materials went up and down.

On November 10, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,080 (+155) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,500 (+100) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1005 yuan/ton (-255); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 69,888 (-1,300) lots, the short position was 92,894 (-6,735) lots, and the net short position was 23,006 (-5,435) lots.

On November 10, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,075 (-10) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,735 (+25) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,725 (+15) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,680 (+5) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -332 (+50) yuan/ton.

As of November 5: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 297,456 (+12,243) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 242,250 (+21,930) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.67 (+0.17), cup lump 47.45 (-0.1), latex 51.8 (-0.5), RSS3 55.95 (+0.07).

As of November 4, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 61% (+2.57%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 56.48% (+1.61%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the price of rubber futures fluctuated at high levels, but the performance of NR was relatively weak, which may be mainly related to the recovery of overseas production in the later period and the gradual decrease of domestic production. Affected by the supply side, RU is expected to strengthen relative to NR without major fluctuations in demand in the later period. At present, the light-colored rubber represented by RU, due to the gradual decrease in the later stage of supply, the accumulation of inventory is expected to slow down, and the negative factors has been released. With the support of domestic raw material prices, the downward space is expected to be limited. The dark rubber represented by NR is under pressure due to the gradual increase in supply in the later period. However, due to logistics has not yet been fully relieved, domestic supply pressure is expected to be limited. The rubber price is expected to stabilize at this position, but the upper space is also limited. Investors are advised to be cautiously bullish in the short term, and the focus in the future is still on the supply side.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: Cushing inventories remained low, while refined oil inventories declined.

Yesterday EIA announced weekly data. Among them, crude oil inventories increased but the growth rate was less than expected, refined oil inventories fell sharply, and Cushing's inventory remained low. We mentioned in the previous daily report that although Cushing’s inventory was historically low, the closing of Cushing’s arbitrage window to the U.S. Gulf and the cut in the pipeline rate of the Centurion pipeline are expected to restrict the net outflow rate of Cushing crude oil. Recently, Cushing's inter-month spread structure has fallen from a high level. From the perspective of regional inventory, although the Cushing area inventory is low, the U.S. Gulf area inventory is still relatively abundant, and the probability of Cushing’s inventory reaching the true bottom of the tank is still relatively low. If the Biden government releases strategic reserve stocks in the future, it will further improve the fundamentals of crude oil supply and demand in the US Gulf region. It is expected that there is not much room for Cushing's inventory to continue to decline.

Strategy: Neutral, go long of diesel crack spread (Gasoil-Brent）

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: Inflation expectations have soared, and copper prices have temporarily stabilized.

In terms of spot: According to SMM news, the inter-month basis yesterday rose first and then fell. Compared with yesterday, it expanded to around 500 yuan/ton in the morning market, but the holders were unwilling to lower prices because of the tight supply in the market. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper began to offer a premium of 120-130 yuan/ton. However, due to the strong atmosphere of stalemate, traders lowered the price at a premium of 100-120 yuan/ton. After the second trading period, as the market price rose back to around 70,500 yuan/ton, the inter-month basis narrowed to the 400-450 yuan/ton range. This made it more difficult for traders to keep prices down, and market transactions therefore appeared difficult and stalemate. In terms of High-Grade Copper, except for Guixi Copper's holders who firmly quoted at a premium of around 200 yuan/ton, most of the other brands offered a premium of 150-180 yuan/ton, but the market was also difficult to find low-priced sources. The quotations of Hydro-Copper brands such as Indonesia and India can stand at a premium of 50-70 yuan/ton, and the downstream maintained bargain-hunting and replenished inventory for rigid-demand.

View:

On the macro front, the US CPI report released on Wednesday showed that consumer prices rose the fastest since 1990 in October. The important thing is that the owner's equivalent rent continues to rise, indicating that the Fed is facing sticky inflation. This may to a certain extent negate the previous statement that Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that inflation is temporary. And Senate Manchin also stated that the threat posed by record inflation is not "temporary" and the "economic loss" caused by inflation cannot be ignored. Higher inflation expectations may be relatively beneficial for copper products with relatively strong financial attributes.

Domestically, due to the large-scale cold wave weather in recent days, rainfall or snowfall has occurred in many parts of China, and coal production and transportation have been affected to varying degrees. However, the National Development and Reform Commission recently made another move, showing a firm regulatory stance. The National Development and Reform Commission recently instructed Shanxi Province to issue a price-limiting order for the second time in nearly half a month.

On the whole, coal prices have adjusted back again, affecting the overall sector prices. Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Processing fees fluctuated and rebounded.

1. PX processing fees continue to be low.

(1) The production load has been reduced to 20% on November 8, and it is planned to start maintenance for 2 months on November 10.

(2) On October 25, Rongsheng issued an announcement that the Ministry of Commerce agreed to arrange the import allowance of 12 million tons of crude oil for non-state-owned trade in the second phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Refining and Chemical Project in 2021. On November 1, the two PX lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical have been upgraded to full capacity, the supply of PX has gradually recovered, and the subsequent third production line is expected to increase the load, and the PX processing fee has been reduced to a low level on the left.

2. PTA processing fees fluctuated and rebounded.

(1) Hengli 3# 2.2 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical will be overhauled from November 5 to November 25.

(2) PTA processing fees fluctuated in the range of 500-570.

3. The production and sales of filaments fell..

(1) The production and sales of filament yarn fell back to 35%.

(2) In October 2021, textile and apparel exports were 28.937 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 16.47%. Among them, textile exports were US$12.5 billion, an increase of 7.19%; clothing exports were US$16.437 billion, an increase of 24.68%.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle from November to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: PTA and PX processing fees are basically compressed in place, and the correction of crude oil benchmarks is expected to be limited. It is recommended that on unilateral prices, taking a wait-and-see attitude.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：钢厂检修增多，铁矿承压运行

逻辑和观点：

铁矿主力合约夜盘低开低走，早间继续下挫，一度触及518.5元/吨，创2019年2月以来新低，午后小幅回升，最终收跌4.62%，报收536.5元/吨。现货方面，进口铁矿港口现货午后价格持跌运行，全天累计下跌5-55元/湿吨，现青岛港PB粉600-610元/湿吨，超特粉375-380元/湿吨。

库存方面，本周一45港库存总量14926.3万吨，上周一14649.63万吨，本周港口库存环比增加276.67万吨，分区域来看，各区港口库存均有增量。需求端，据Mesteel不完全统计，11月全国有28家钢厂发布检修计划，其中山西有10家样本钢厂检修；浙江有2家钢厂检修，其他地区在检修钢厂16家，钢厂检修增多，铁矿需求承压。下游方面，今日钢谷网公布数据显示本周全国建材产量减少9.55万吨，热卷产量增加2.3万吨，钢材产量总体缩减。

综合来看，铁矿石短中期供给增加预期不变，需求端保持偏弱态势，叠加钢价大幅下跌后钢厂利润压缩严重以及冬季补库驱动较弱，中期供需宽松格局难改，预计短期内盘面仍将维持震荡，近期跌幅过大，策略上建议观望。

策略：

单边：中性

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：

粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：原料价格涨跌互现

10号，RU主力收盘14080（+155）元/吨，混合胶报价12500元/吨（+100），主力合约基差-1005元/吨（-255）；前二十主力多头持仓69888（-1300），空头持仓92894（-6735），净空持仓23006（-5435）。

10号，NR主力收盘价11075（-10）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1735（+25）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1725美元/吨（+15），印尼标胶1680（+5）美元/吨。主力合约基差-332（+50）元/吨。

截至11月5日：交易所总库存297456（+12243），交易所仓单242250（+21930）。

原料：生胶片52.67（+0.17），杯胶47.45（-0.1），胶水51.8（-0.5），烟片55.95（+0.07）。

截止11月4日，国内全钢胎开工率为61%（+2.57%），国内半钢胎开工率为56.48%(+1.61%）。

观点：昨天橡胶期价震荡偏强，但NR表现相对偏弱，或主要跟后期海外产量回升而国内产量逐步减少有关。受供应端的影响，在后期需求没有大的波动下，预计RU将相对NR走强。目前RU所代表的浅色胶，因供应后期的逐步减少，库存累积有望放缓，盘面利空有所释放，在国内原料价格支撑下，预计下方空间有限，而NR所代表的深色胶则因后期供应的逐步增加有所承压，但因物流尚未完全缓解，预计国内供应压力有限。预计胶价在此位置上有所企稳，但上方空间也有限，短期谨慎偏多。后期的焦点仍在供应端。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存大幅累积，需求示弱等。

原油：库欣库存维持低位，成品油库存下降

昨日EIA公布周度数据，其中原油库存增加但增幅不及预期，成品油库存降幅较大，库欣库存维持低位，我们在此前的日报中提到，虽然库欣库存历史低位，但由于库欣到美湾套利窗口关闭以及Centurion管道下调管道费率，预计将会制约库欣原油净流出速度，近期库欣的月差结构已经出现高位回落，从地区库存来看，虽然库欣地区库存低位，但美湾地区库存仍相对充裕，库欣库存达到真正罐底水平的概率仍相对偏低，如果未来拜登政府释放战略储备库存，将进一步改善美湾地区的原油供需基本面，预计库欣库存继续下降的空间并不大。

策略：中性，做多柴油裂解价差（Gasoil-Brent）

风险：美国释放战略储备

铜：通胀预期飙涨 铜价暂时维稳

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日隔月基差先扬后抑，早市与昨日相比扩至500元/吨附近，但持货商锚定市场货源偏紧的现状不愿降价，早市平水铜始报于升水120-130元/吨，但僵持气氛浓郁，贸易商询价压价之下集中成交于升水100-120元/吨，第二时段后，随着盘面低位返升于70500元/吨附近，月差随之缩窄于400-450元/吨区间，贸易商更不易压价，市场成交因此显得艰难而胶着。好铜除了贵溪铜持货商坚定于升水200元/吨附近，其余大部分品牌报至升水150-180元/吨，也难觅低价货源。湿法铜少而坚挺，少量的ESOX，CMCC整体围绕平水附近报价，甚至能小幅升水，其余如印尼、印度等品牌可挺于升水50-70元/吨，下游维持逢低刚需补库。

观点：

宏观方面，美国周三公布的CPI报告显示10月份消费者价格涨幅为1990年以来最快。重要的是，业主等价租金持续上升，表明美联储面对粘性通胀问题。这或许在一定程度上否定了此前美联储主席鲍威尔所强调的通胀暂时的言论，并且参议院曼钦也表示，创纪录的通货膨胀带来的威胁不是“暂时的”，不能忽视通货膨胀带来的“经济损失”。而通胀预期的走高对于金融属性相对较强的铜品种而言，或许相对有利。

国内方面，因近日大范围寒潮天气，全国多地出现降雨或降雪，煤炭生产和运输均受不同程度影响。但国家发改委最近再度出手，展示了坚定的调控立场。发改委近日指示山西省近半个月内第二次发出限价令，山西国有煤矿5500大卡市场坑口价已腰斩，中煤集团全面下调港口和坑口动力煤售价。

整体看来，煤炭价格再度回调，影响整体板块价格，单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：加工费震荡反弹

一、PX加工费持续低位

（1）福建联合11.8降负至2成，计划11.10检修2个月。（2）10月25日荣盛发公告，商务部同意安排浙江石油化工有限公司炼化二期项目2021年原油非国营贸易进口允许量1200万吨。11月1日，浙石化PX两条线已提升负荷，PX供应量逐步回升，后续第三条线亦有提负预期，PX加工费已左侧压至低位。

二、PTA加工费震荡反弹

（1）PTA加工费500-570区间震荡。（2）恒力3#220万吨恒力石化11.5-11.25兑现检修

三、长丝产销回落

（1）长丝产销回落至35%。（2）2021年10月纺织服装出口289.37亿美元，增长16.47%；其中纺织品出口125亿美元，增长7.19%；服装出口164.37亿美元，增长24.68%。

平衡表展望：PTA11-12月逐步进入累库周期。

策略建议：（1）单边：PTA及PX加工费基本压缩到位，原油基准预期回调有限，单边价格观望。（2）跨期套利：累库预期背景下，1-5价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间