Iron Ore: Spot transactions improved and the market rebounded sharply.

Viewpoint and logic:

Yesterday, black series products rebounded sharply. After the main iron ore contract opened higher at night, it continued to rebound within the day. It had risen by 8.53% at the highest, and finally closed at 570.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.84%. In terms of spot, the port spot price of imported iron ore rose slightly in the afternoon, with a cumulative increase of 5-30 yuan/WT throughout the day. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 625 yuan/ WT, and SSF 400-405 yuan/ WT.

On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of long-process steel plants in Anhui Province this week decreased by 9% from the previous week, and the output of molten iron from the construction steel sample steel plants in Northeast China decreased by 16,000 tons from the previous week. Due to losses, individual steel mills actively curtailed their production plans. Due to the relaxation of production restrictions in Tangshan, the capacity utilization rate this week was 59.25%, an increase of 3.07% from the previous week. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of 45 ports this week once again stood above the 150 million tons, an increase of 3.02 million tons from the previous week. In the downstream, the balance sheet demand of thread increased by 156,400 tons, and the social warehouse is reduced by 316,700 tons. Demand has picked up slightly and market sentiment has picked up.

On the whole, iron ore port inventory remains high, and high supply pressure is difficult to change in the short term. However, the rebound in steel prices may increase steel mills' production enthusiasm and willingness to replenish inventories, and may provide certain support to iron ore prices in the short term. In addition, recent market rumors that the policy side may release a signal of loose margins on real estate, which has changed the pessimistic expectations of real estate, and the introduction of specific policies needs to be focused on.

Strategies:

Unilateral: Neutral

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: The market sentiment turns warmer, and the price of rubber fluctuates.

On November 11, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,145 (+65) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,575 (+75) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -945 yuan/ton (+35); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 68,514 (-1,374) lots, the short position was 93,077 (+183) lots, and the net short position was 24,563 (+1,557) lots.

On November 11, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,175 (+100) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,735 (0) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,725 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,680 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -399 (-67) yuan/ton.

As of November 5: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 297,456 (+12,243) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 242,250 (+21,930) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.85 (+0.18), cup lump 47.65 (+0.2), latex 52 (+0.2), RSS3 56.18 (+0.23).

As of November 4, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 61% (+2.57%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 56.48% (+1.61%).

Opinion: Due to the news that the domestic real estate market is expected to relax, the commodity market atmosphere has turned warmer, which has supported the price of rubber. The current contradiction between supply and demand of rubber is still on the supply side. In the early stage, the market expected that domestic arrivals would ease with the decline in ocean freight rates. However, at present, the domestic arrivals have not increased significantly, and it is expected that the impact of logistics on the shipping schedule will continue for a long time, and the domestic arrivals pressure will hardly appear in the short term. Under the support of domestic raw material costs, prices are expected to have limited room for continued adjustment, but the upward drive is weaker due to the drag on the demand side. The short-term upward pressure is expected to be near the import arbitrage window. Before the supply has undergone major changes, it is recommended to maintain the idea that the market will remain range-bound. As the market is currently close to the price level where raw materials are supported, try to buy at a low price.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: OPEC lowered its forecast for demand growth in the fourth quarter.

From the demand side, there have been more and more views that the current oil demand has returned to the level of about 100 million barrels per day before the epidemic. Judging from the current high-frequency data such as the traffic congestion index, all major regions of the world have recovered to 90% or above before the epidemic. The European and American regions gradually recovered in the first half of this year. After September, the demand in other parts of the Asia-Pacific region rebounded rapidly, and the demand recovery continued following the path of China, Europe, America, and other Asia-Pacific regions. At present, the relatively backward ones are still consuming jet fuel. Since the number of cross-border flights is still low, jet fuel consumption is the last mile of oil demand recovery, and other consumption areas have returned to levels close to pre-epidemic levels.

Strategy: Neutral, go long of diesel crack spread (Gasoil-Brent）

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: It is expected that the operating rate will improve in November, and the price of copper will remain in a fluctuating range.

In terms of spot: According to SMM, the inter-month spread was stable at 400-500 yuan/ton range yesterday. In the morning market, holders began to quote at a premium of 120 yuan/ton for Standard-Grade Copper and a premium of 230 yuan/ton for High-Grade Copper. However, due to few inquiries, holders took the initiative to cut prices. But even if the quotation drops to a premium of 100-110 yuan/ton, it was still difficult to have a concentrated transaction volume. After entering the second trading session, some holders took the lead in reducing the price to about a premium of 90 yuan/ton, and it was still difficult to have a certain degree of activity. High-Grade Copper quotation was stable at a premium of 200-220 yuan/ton, and only Peruvian slabs can be sold directly to downstream processing companies at a premium of 180-190 yuan/ton. Hydro-Copper was still in short supply, but the difference between Hydro-Copper was huge. NORISLK quoted at a discount of 180-150 yuan/ton, and BIRLA was stable at a premium of 30-50 yuan/ton, which was still the preferred brand for downstream bargain-hunting replenishment.

On the macro front, OPEC’s latest monthly report shows that global crude oil demand may decrease due to soaring energy prices. OPEC lowered its 2022 crude oil demand forecast for OPEC by 100,000 barrels per day to 28.7 million barrels per day. After the White House said the day before that it would not announce plans to release the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and would continue to cooperate with OPCE to increase oil supply, hawkish Democrats urged Biden to act quickly. Specifically, it includes the release of oil from the national strategic reserve, and even more radical measures to ban U.S. crude oil exports to solve the problem of rising gasoline prices. According to data from the market intelligence company Kpler, in October, approximately 1.6 million barrels of crude oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve were shipped out, a monthly record. A number of important results were achieved at the COP26 meeting held in Glasgow on October 31. Countries have updated their independent contribution commitments (NDC), and 84% of countries have increased their NDC targets. More than one hundred countries, including China, have pledged to end deforestation by 2030. From the perspective of global carbon neutral progress tracking, Suriname and Bhutan have achieved carbon neutrality. 13 countries and regions including Germany have completed legislation on carbon neutrality. 3 countries and regions including Ireland are in the process of legislation, and China and others. 50 countries and regions have formed a policy oath. However, the updated version of the NDC and other commitments reported by various countries have only reduced the annual greenhouse gas emissions by 7.5% on the basis of the original forecast in 2030. The "2021 Emission Gap Report" report predicts that by the end of this century, the global temperature will rise by 2.7°C, which is still far behind the 2/1.5°C target. The US inflation data released the day before hit a 31-year high. At the same time, the Baltic Dry Bulk Index BDI, often used by economists as a leading indicator of inflation, has fallen by 50% since October, reaching its lowest level since June on November 5.

Recently, there have been frequent positive news that the industry is expected to pick up on the issue of debt financing by real estate companies. At a symposium of representatives of real estate companies held by the China Interbank Market Dealers Association on November 9, companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Development, and Country Garden stated that they have plans to register and issue debt financing instruments in the interbank market in the near future. According to the latest data released by the People's Bank of China, financial institutions have seen a significant increase in real estate loans recently. The market has released the risk sentiment of the mainland real estate, and the risk appetite has rebounded.

On the whole, it is expected that the operating rate will improve in November, and the copper price will remain in a shock range. Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: The performance of terminal orders is insipid, and the willingness to restock is weak.

1. PX processing fees continue to be low.

(1) The production load has been reduced to 20% on November 8, and it is planned to start maintenance for 2 months on November 10.

(2) On October 25, Rongsheng issued an announcement that the Ministry of Commerce agreed to arrange the import allowance of 12 million tons of crude oil for non-state-owned trade in the second phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Refining and Chemical Project in 2021. On November 1, the two PX lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical have been upgraded to full capacity, the supply of PX has gradually recovered, and the subsequent third production line is expected to increase the load, and the PX processing fee has been reduced to a low level on the left.

2. PTA processing fees are compressed.

(1) The PTA processing fee was once again reduced to below 500, and the terminal load dropped again.

3. The terminal operating rate dropped, and the orders were insipid.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle from November to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: PTA and PX processing fees are basically compressed in place, and the correction of crude oil benchmarks is expected to be limited. It is recommended that on unilateral prices, taking a wait-and-see attitude.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿石：现货成交好转，盘面大幅反弹

观点与逻辑：

昨天，黑色系商品大幅反弹，铁矿石主力合约夜盘高开后，日内持续反弹，最高一度上涨8.53%，最终收于570.5元/吨，大涨6.84%。现货方面，进口铁矿港口现货午后价格小幅上涨，全天累计上涨5-30元/湿吨；现青岛港PB粉625元/湿吨，超特粉400-405元/湿吨。

需求端，本周安徽省长流程钢厂产能利用率环比下降9%，东北地区建筑钢材样本钢厂铁水产量环比减少1.6万吨，个别钢厂因面临亏损，主动压减生产计划。唐山地区因限产放松，本周产能利用率59.25%，环比上升3.07%。库存方面来看，本周45港库存总量再度站上1.5亿吨关口，较上周环比增加302万吨。下游方面，螺纹表需增15.64万吨，社库降31.67万吨，需求略有回暖，市场情绪有所转暖。

综合来看，铁矿港口库存维持高位，高供给压力短期难改，但钢材价格反弹或将提高钢厂生产积极性和补库意愿，短期或将对铁矿价格形成一定的支撑；另外，近日市场传言政策端对房地产或有边际宽松的信号，使得房地产悲观的预期有所改观，具体政策出台情况需要重点关注。

单边：中性

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：

粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：市场氛围转暖，胶价震荡

11号，RU主力收盘14145（+65）元/吨，混合胶报价12575元/吨（+75），主力合约基差-945元/吨（+35）；前二十主力多头持仓68514（-1374），空头持仓93077（+183），净空持仓24563（+1557）。

11号，NR主力收盘价11175（+100）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1735（0）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1725美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1680（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-399（-67）元/吨。

截至11月5日：交易所总库存297456（+12243），交易所仓单242250（+21930）。

原料：生胶片52.85（+0.18），杯胶47.65（+0.2），胶水52（+0.2），烟片56.18（+0.23）。

截止11月4日，国内全钢胎开工率为61%（+2.57%），国内半钢胎开工率为56.48%(+1.61%）。

观点：受国内房地产市场预期放松的消息，商品市场氛围偏暖，使得胶价受支撑。目前橡胶的供需矛盾仍在供应端，前期市场预期国内到港量将随着海运费的下降之后有所缓解，但目前国内到港量仍未明显增加，预计物流对于船期的影响还将延续较长时间，国内到港压力短期难以显现，价格在国内原料成本支撑下，预计继续调整空间有限，但上涨的驱动基于需求端的拖累而偏弱，预计短期上方压力在进口套利窗口附近。在供应没有发生大的变化之前，建议区间震荡思路对待，因接近下方原料支撑处，尝试低位买入。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存大幅累积，需求示弱等。

原油：欧佩克下调四季度需求增长预估

从需求端来看，已经有越来越多的观点认为当前的石油需求已经恢复至疫情前约1亿桶/日水平，从目前的交通拥堵指数等高频数据来看，全球各大地区均恢复至疫情前的90%分位或以上，欧美地区在今年上半年逐步复苏，而9月份之后亚太其他地区的需求快速回升，需求复苏按照中国、欧美、亚太其他的路径持续，而当前较为落后的仍在航煤消费，由于跨国航班数量仍旧偏低，因此航空煤油消费是石油需求复苏的最后一公里，其他消费领域已经恢复至接近疫情前的水平。

策略：中性，做多柴油裂解价差（Gasoil-Brent）

风险：美国释放战略储备

铜：预计11月开工率有所改善，铜价维持震荡区间

现货方面：据SMM讯，昨日月差稳定于400-500元/吨区间，持货商早市始报于平水铜升水120元/吨，好铜升水230元/吨左右，但因少人询价压价，持货商主动降价，在升水100-110元/吨徘徊良久，也难有集中成交量，进入第二时段后，有持货商带头降至升水90元/吨左右，也难有一定活跃度。好铜持稳于升水200-220元/吨，仅有秘鲁大板可在升水180-190元/吨直接销于下游加工企业。湿法铜依然货缺，然而差铜之间差异化巨大，NORISLK报价于贴水180-150元/吨区间，BIRLA早市平水被秒收，然后稳定于升水30-50元/吨，依然属于下游逢低补货的首选品牌。

宏观方面，欧佩克最新月度报告显示，由于能源价格飙升，全球原油需求可能会降低，欧佩克将其2022年对欧佩克的原油需求预测下调10万桶/日，至2870万桶/日。在前日白宫表示不会宣布释放战略石油储备（SPR）的计划，将继续与OPCE合作提高石油供应之后，鹰派民主党人敦促拜登迅速采取行动，包括从国家战略储备中释放石油，甚至采用更激进的禁止美国原油出口手段，以解决汽油价格上涨的问题。根据市场情报公司Kpler的数据，在10月份，美国战略石油储备中约有160万桶原油被运出，创下月度纪录。于10月31日在格拉斯哥召开的COP26会议上达成了多项重要成果。各国更新自主贡献承诺（NDC），且84%的国家提高了NDC目标，包括中国在内的百余国承诺2030前终结森林滥伐等。从全球碳中和进展追踪来看，目前苏里南和不丹已实现碳中和，德国等13个国家和地区已就碳中和完成立法，爱尔兰等3个国家和地区正处于立法进程，中国等50个国家和地区形成了政策宣誓。但各国上报的更新版NDC等承诺，仅在原先预测的2030年温室气体年排放量基础上减少了7.5%。《2021年排放差距报告》报告预测到本世纪末全球气温将上升2.7℃，与2/1.5℃目标仍存差距。前日公布的美国通胀数据创31年新高，同时，常被经济学家用作通胀领先指标的波罗的海干散货指数BDI自10月以来下降了50%，11月5日触及6月以来的最低水平。

近日关于房企发债融资有望回暖的积极讯息频频传来。在中国银行间市场交易商协会11月9日举行的房地产企业代表座谈会上，招商蛇口、保利发展、碧桂园等公司表示，近期有计划在银行间市场注册发行债务融资工具。根据人民银行最新公布的数据，近期金融机构房地产贷款投放明显提速。市场对内地房地产风险情绪有所释放，风险偏好有所回升。

整体看来，预计11月开工率有所改善，铜价维持震荡区间，单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：终端订单表现一般，再库存意愿弱

一、PX加工费持续低位

（1）福建联合11.8降负至2成，计划11.10检修2个月。（2）10月25日荣盛发公告，商务部同意安排浙江石油化工有限公司炼化二期项目2021年原油非国营贸易进口允许量1200万吨。11月1日，浙石化PX两条线已提升负荷，PX供应量逐步回升，后续第三条线亦有提负预期，PX加工费已左侧压至低位。

二、PTA加工费压缩

（1）PTA加工费再度压缩至500以下，终端负荷再度回落。

三、终端开工率回落，订单一般

平衡表展望：PTA11-12月逐步进入累库周期。

策略建议：（1）单边：PTA及PX加工费基本压缩到位，原油基准预期回调有限，单边价格观望。（2）跨期套利：累库预期背景下，1-5价差反套。

风险：PTA工厂对检修节奏的把控，浙石化PX负荷情况，聚酯降负的维持时间