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### Daily morning for Crude oil, PTA, natural rubber, iron ore, copper Iro (ZH & EN) 2021.11.16

submitted 2021-11-16 10:17:59

Iron Ore: Shipments have declined compared with the previous month, and the weakness of iron ore is difficult to change.

Logic and perspective:

Yesterday, the Steel Union announced last week's iron ore shipment data. 27.14 million tons were shipped globally, a week-on-week decrease of 3.48 million tons. Australia shipped 15.47 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.7 million tons. Brazil shipped 6.09 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 230,000 tons. Non-mainstream shipments amounted to 5.58 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 550,000 tons. The arrivals of 45 ports reached 23.54 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 660,000 tons. Due to the cliff-like decline in steel consumption, and the profit of steel mills almost falling to the cost line, some even suffered losses, resulting in a sharp decline in iron ore demand, and futures and spot prices are easy to fall but difficult to rise. At the close yesterday, iron ore futures closed at 539 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore at Caofeidian Port fluctuated down in the afternoon; PB fines was 593 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from the previous day; SSF was 380 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of basis, PB fines was around RMB 130/ton, and SSF was around RMB 30/ton. The overall change was little.

On the whole, due to the country's strict control over the real estate industry, steel consumption has experienced a cliff-like decline since the third quarter. With the rapid decline in steel prices, the profits of the long-term process are rapidly compressed until they fall near the cost of the steel plant, and even losses occur, resulting in extremely bearish raw material prices. At present, the iron ore is not driven by a little bit of bullishness, but is frequently falling. However, since iron ore has fallen below US$80 and has strong support, further decline requires greater accumulation of contradictions. Therefore, in the short term, there is an interval trend, ranging from 500 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton. Strategies: Unilateral: go short when prices hit high levels Arbitrage: None Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None Options: None Inter-period: None Cross-species: None Concerns and risks: 1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy. 2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc. Rubber: Demand improved from the previous month, and rubber prices fluctuated at high levels. On November 15, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,540 (+145) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,925 (+100) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -890 yuan/ton (+55); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 65,630 (-949) lots, the short position was 86,131 (-1,836) lots, and the net short position was 20,501 (-887) lots. On November 15, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,615 (+235) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,775 (+25) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,765 (+25) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,710 (+20) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -689 (-136) yuan/ton. As of November 12: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 307,325 (+9,869) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 253,940 (+11,690) tons. Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.85 (+0.18), cup lump 47.65 (+0.2), latex 52 (+0.2), RSS3 56.18 (+0.23). As of November 11, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 64% (+3%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 60% (+3.52%). Opinion: The tire factory operating rate has continued to rise recently, mainly in preparation for the peak domestic terminal sales at the end of the year. At the same time, due to the transfer of part of the finished product inventory to the distributor, the pressure on the finished product inventory of the tire factory has slowed down. The recent increase in the purchase of downstream raw materials has brought support for rubber prices. Domestic inventories continue the pattern of differentiation of dark and light colored rubber stocks, but the main production area in Yunnan is approaching to stop delivery, and it is expected that the increase in warehouse receipts will slow down in the later period. The port inventory is affected by logistics, and it is expected that the arrivals to the port are still limited, which will bring less pressure on domestic supply, and the price of rubber is expected to continue to fluctuate at high levels. Strategy: Cautiously bullish Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc. Crude oil: U.S. shale oil production continued to recover. In the context of the pending U.S. release of reserves, oil prices have been in a shock range recently. On the one hand, Biden has clarified the upper limit of the US's tolerance for oil prices, and the release of reserves is expected to suppress the oil price. On the other hand, the current global crude oil and refined oil inventories are at a low level in recent years, driven by the completion of refinery overhauls, the rebound in heating demand, and the recovery of jet fuel demand, the fundamental situation remains good, so oil prices also lack a significant downward drive. However, from a more medium-term perspective, the supply and demand situation of oil prices next year is not optimistic. On the one hand, the demand recovery is close to the top. On the other hand, the recovery of shale oil production in the United States will accelerate, and Iranian oil will return to the market with a high probability. The balance sheets of the three major institutions all point to a shift from a shortage of supply to an oversupply of crude oil. As the epidemic approaches the middle and late stages, the oil market will gradually return to normalization. Strategy: Neutral, go long of diesel crack spread (Gasoil-Brent Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves. Copper: Interest rate hikes are expected to suppress copper prices. In terms of spot: According to SMM, the spot market yesterday showed that there was no market in price. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper began to offer a premium of 800 yuan/ton for the 12 contract, but there were few inquiries in the market. Upon seeing this, the holders took the initiative to quickly lower the premium and discount to 600-700 yuan/ton, but there were still few transactions in the market. Around 10 o'clock, the holders once again adjusted the price to a premium of 550-580 yuan/ton before gradually attracting market buying. After the second trading session, as the inter-month spread widened, some holders raised their quotations again to a premium of 580-600 yuan/ton, but the actual transactions were very few. High-Grade Copper and Hydro-Copper also follow the trend of Standard-Grade Copper. The quotation of High-Grade Copper for the 12 contract was gradually adjusted from a premium of 800 yuan/ton to a premium of 600 yuan/ton, but there were still few transactions. For Hydro-Copper, the premium had been adjusted from 600 yuan/ton all the way to around a premium of 400 yuan/ton. After the market rose slightly, the downstream maintained a cautious wait-and-see attitude, resulting in little buying interest in the market. View: The overall copper price remained volatile yesterday. On the macro front, the Bank of England and the United States are expected to raise interest rates. In November, the New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rose more than expected, which partially contributed to market interest rate hike expectations. The market expects the Fed to raise interest rates to a new high from next year to July. The survey shows that economists expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates in December. European Central Bank President Lagarde reiterated on Monday that although high inflation will last longer than expected, he will not raise interest rates next year. The CEO of Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest bank, refuted the European Central Bank's prediction that "inflation is temporary", warned that the ultra-loose monetary policy had failed, and called on the European Central Bank to tighten policy when inflation soared. Domestically, economic indicators such as industrial added value and consumption improved in October. The completion of the annual new employment target in cities and towns ahead of schedule indicates that the overall economic operation has resumed steadily and continuously, and development resilience continues to show. On the whole, the expectation of interest rate hikes will suppress copper prices. Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks. Strategies: 1. Unilateral: neutral 2. Inter-market: postpone 3. Inter-period: postpone 4. Options: postpone Focus point: 1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation 2. The trend of the US dollar index 3. Policy risks may increase. PTA: TA processing fees continue to be weak. 1. PX processing fees continue to be low. (1) The third production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX still has not significantly increased the load. India OMPL started to overhaul. Asia's PX accumulated inventory rate in November-December was not large; the low level of PX processing fee near US$140/ton has basically been compressed.

2. P TA processing fees continue to be weak.

Currently, there are not many PTA overhauls. In the context of terminal negative feedback, the PTA processing fee continued to stay below 500.

3. The price of filaments was reduced for promotion

(1) At the beginning of the week, the price of filaments was reduced for promotion, and the production and sales volume was increased to 175%. (2) The dual control policy still exists in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the terminal load is under pressure. Poor performance of terminal orders.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle from November to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: PTA and PX processing fees are basically compressed in place, and the correction of crude oil benchmarks is expected to be limited. It is recommended that on unilateral prices, taking a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: Potential overhauls of PTA factories under the background of low processing fees; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

15号，RU主力收盘14540+145）元/吨，混合胶报价12925/吨（+100），主力合约基差-890/吨（+55）；前二十主力多头持仓65630-949），空头持仓86131-1836），净空持仓20501-887）。

15号，NR主力收盘价11615+235）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1775+25）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1765美元/吨（+25），印尼标胶1710+20）美元/吨。主力合约基差-689-136）元/吨。

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTATA加工费持续偏弱

1）浙石化PX第三条线仍未明显提负，福海创80万吨停车至年底，福建联合85万吨11.10停车2个月，印度OMPL兑现检修。亚洲PX11-12月累库速率不大， PX加工费140美元/吨附近低位基本已压缩到位。

1）目前PTA检修量级不多，终端负反馈背景下，PTA加工费持续压在500以下。

1）周初长丝降价促销，产销放量至175%。（2）江浙地区双控政策仍存，终端负荷受压；终端订单表现不佳。