Iron Ore: Shipments have declined compared with the previous month, and the weakness of iron ore is difficult to change.

Logic and perspective:

Yesterday, the Steel Union announced last week's iron ore shipment data. 27.14 million tons were shipped globally, a week-on-week decrease of 3.48 million tons. Australia shipped 15.47 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.7 million tons. Brazil shipped 6.09 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 230,000 tons. Non-mainstream shipments amounted to 5.58 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 550,000 tons. The arrivals of 45 ports reached 23.54 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 660,000 tons. Due to the cliff-like decline in steel consumption, and the profit of steel mills almost falling to the cost line, some even suffered losses, resulting in a sharp decline in iron ore demand, and futures and spot prices are easy to fall but difficult to rise. At the close yesterday, iron ore futures closed at 539 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore at Caofeidian Port fluctuated down in the afternoon; PB fines was 593 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from the previous day; SSF was 380 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of basis, PB fines was around RMB 130/ton, and SSF was around RMB 30/ton. The overall change was little.

On the whole, due to the country's strict control over the real estate industry, steel consumption has experienced a cliff-like decline since the third quarter. With the rapid decline in steel prices, the profits of the long-term process are rapidly compressed until they fall near the cost of the steel plant, and even losses occur, resulting in extremely bearish raw material prices. At present, the iron ore is not driven by a little bit of bullishness, but is frequently falling. However, since iron ore has fallen below US$80 and has strong support, further decline requires greater accumulation of contradictions. Therefore, in the short term, there is an interval trend, ranging from 500 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton.

Strategies:

Unilateral: go short when prices hit high levels

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: Demand improved from the previous month, and rubber prices fluctuated at high levels.

On November 15, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,540 (+145) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,925 (+100) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -890 yuan/ton (+55); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 65,630 (-949) lots, the short position was 86,131 (-1,836) lots, and the net short position was 20,501 (-887) lots.

On November 15, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,615 (+235) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,775 (+25) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,765 (+25) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,710 (+20) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -689 (-136) yuan/ton.

As of November 12: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 307,325 (+9,869) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 253,940 (+11,690) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.85 (+0.18), cup lump 47.65 (+0.2), latex 52 (+0.2), RSS3 56.18 (+0.23).

As of November 11, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 64% (+3%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 60% (+3.52%).

Opinion: The tire factory operating rate has continued to rise recently, mainly in preparation for the peak domestic terminal sales at the end of the year. At the same time, due to the transfer of part of the finished product inventory to the distributor, the pressure on the finished product inventory of the tire factory has slowed down. The recent increase in the purchase of downstream raw materials has brought support for rubber prices. Domestic inventories continue the pattern of differentiation of dark and light colored rubber stocks, but the main production area in Yunnan is approaching to stop delivery, and it is expected that the increase in warehouse receipts will slow down in the later period. The port inventory is affected by logistics, and it is expected that the arrivals to the port are still limited, which will bring less pressure on domestic supply, and the price of rubber is expected to continue to fluctuate at high levels.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: U.S. shale oil production continued to recover.

In the context of the pending U.S. release of reserves, oil prices have been in a shock range recently. On the one hand, Biden has clarified the upper limit of the US's tolerance for oil prices, and the release of reserves is expected to suppress the oil price. On the other hand, the current global crude oil and refined oil inventories are at a low level in recent years, driven by the completion of refinery overhauls, the rebound in heating demand, and the recovery of jet fuel demand, the fundamental situation remains good, so oil prices also lack a significant downward drive. However, from a more medium-term perspective, the supply and demand situation of oil prices next year is not optimistic. On the one hand, the demand recovery is close to the top. On the other hand, the recovery of shale oil production in the United States will accelerate, and Iranian oil will return to the market with a high probability. The balance sheets of the three major institutions all point to a shift from a shortage of supply to an oversupply of crude oil. As the epidemic approaches the middle and late stages, the oil market will gradually return to normalization.

Strategy: Neutral, go long of diesel crack spread (Gasoil-Brent）

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: Interest rate hikes are expected to suppress copper prices.

In terms of spot: According to SMM, the spot market yesterday showed that there was no market in price. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper began to offer a premium of 800 yuan/ton for the 12 contract, but there were few inquiries in the market. Upon seeing this, the holders took the initiative to quickly lower the premium and discount to 600-700 yuan/ton, but there were still few transactions in the market. Around 10 o'clock, the holders once again adjusted the price to a premium of 550-580 yuan/ton before gradually attracting market buying. After the second trading session, as the inter-month spread widened, some holders raised their quotations again to a premium of 580-600 yuan/ton, but the actual transactions were very few. High-Grade Copper and Hydro-Copper also follow the trend of Standard-Grade Copper. The quotation of High-Grade Copper for the 12 contract was gradually adjusted from a premium of 800 yuan/ton to a premium of 600 yuan/ton, but there were still few transactions. For Hydro-Copper, the premium had been adjusted from 600 yuan/ton all the way to around a premium of 400 yuan/ton. After the market rose slightly, the downstream maintained a cautious wait-and-see attitude, resulting in little buying interest in the market.

View:

The overall copper price remained volatile yesterday. On the macro front, the Bank of England and the United States are expected to raise interest rates. In November, the New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rose more than expected, which partially contributed to market interest rate hike expectations. The market expects the Fed to raise interest rates to a new high from next year to July. The survey shows that economists expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates in December. European Central Bank President Lagarde reiterated on Monday that although high inflation will last longer than expected, he will not raise interest rates next year. The CEO of Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest bank, refuted the European Central Bank's prediction that "inflation is temporary", warned that the ultra-loose monetary policy had failed, and called on the European Central Bank to tighten policy when inflation soared.

Domestically, economic indicators such as industrial added value and consumption improved in October. The completion of the annual new employment target in cities and towns ahead of schedule indicates that the overall economic operation has resumed steadily and continuously, and development resilience continues to show.

On the whole, the expectation of interest rate hikes will suppress copper prices. Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: TA processing fees continue to be weak.

1. PX processing fees continue to be low.

(1) The third production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX still has not significantly increased the load. India OMPL started to overhaul. Asia's PX accumulated inventory rate in November-December was not large; the low level of PX processing fee near US$140/ton has basically been compressed.

2. P TA processing fees continue to be weak.

Currently, there are not many PTA overhauls. In the context of terminal negative feedback, the PTA processing fee continued to stay below 500.

3. The price of filaments was reduced for promotion

(1) At the beginning of the week, the price of filaments was reduced for promotion, and the production and sales volume was increased to 175%. (2) The dual control policy still exists in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the terminal load is under pressure. Poor performance of terminal orders.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle from November to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: PTA and PX processing fees are basically compressed in place, and the correction of crude oil benchmarks is expected to be limited. It is recommended that on unilateral prices, taking a wait-and-see attitude.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.

Risks: Potential overhauls of PTA factories under the background of low processing fees; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿：发运环比下降，铁矿弱势难改

逻辑和观点：

昨日，钢联公布了上周铁矿石发运数据显示：新口径全球发运2714万吨，周度环比减少348万吨，新口径澳洲发运1547万吨，周度环比减少270万吨，新口径巴西发运609万吨，周度环比减少23万吨，新口径非主流发运558万吨，周度环比减少55万吨，45港到港量2354万吨，周度环比减少66万吨。由于钢材消费出现断崖式下跌，叠加钢厂利润处于成本边缘，部分甚至出现亏损，铁矿石需求大幅减弱，期、现货易跌难涨。昨日收盘，铁矿石期货收539元/吨，较上一交易日下跌7元/吨，现货方面，曹妃甸港进口铁矿午后价格震荡下行， PB粉593元/吨，较前日下跌17元/吨，超特粉380元/吨，与前日持平，市场交投情绪较为一般，成交尚可。基差方面，PB粉130元/吨附近，超特粉30元/吨附近，整体变化不大。

整体来看，由于国家对地产行业的严厉管控，导致三季度以来，钢材消费出现断崖式下跌。随着钢价的快速下跌，长流程利润快速压缩，直至钢厂成本附近，甚至出现亏损，极大的利空原料价格。目前，铁矿没有一点点利多驱动，反而是频繁向下。但由于铁矿已跌至80美金之下（连铁折算交割品），具有强支撑，进一步下跌需要更大的矛盾积累，所以短期看呈现区间走势，500元/吨-600元/吨之间。

策略：

单边：逢高做空

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：

粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：需求环比改善，胶价偏强震荡

15号，RU主力收盘14540（+145）元/吨，混合胶报价12925元/吨（+100），主力合约基差-890元/吨（+55）；前二十主力多头持仓65630（-949），空头持仓86131（-1836），净空持仓20501（-887）。

15号，NR主力收盘价11615（+235）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1775（+25）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1765美元/吨（+25），印尼标胶1710（+20）美元/吨。主力合约基差-689（-136）元/吨。

截至11月12日：交易所总库存307325（+9869），交易所仓单253940（+11690）。

原料：生胶片52.85（+0.18），杯胶47.65（+0.2），胶水52（+0.2），烟片56.18（+0.23）。

截止11月11日，国内全钢胎开工率为64%（+3%），国内半钢胎开工率为60%(+3.52%）。

观点：近期轮胎厂开工率持续回升，主要为年底国内终端销售高峰做准备，同时，因前期成品库存部分转移到经销商，轮胎厂成品库存压力有所减缓，最近下游原料采购增加带来胶价支撑。国内库存延续深浅色胶库存分化的格局，但国内云南主产区临近停割，预计后期仓单增幅将放缓，而港口库存受物流影响，预计到港量仍有限，带来国内供应压力较小，胶价有望延续偏强震荡。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存大幅累积，需求示弱等。

原油：美国页岩油产量持续恢复

在美国抛储悬而未决的背景下，油价近期上下两难处于震荡区间，一方面，拜登已经明确了美国对于油价容忍的上限，抛储预期对油价上方的压制非常明显，而另一方面，当前全球原油、成品油库存处于近年低位，且在炼厂检修结束、取暖需求回升的拉动下，叠加航煤需求复苏，基本面形势依然良好，因此油价亦缺乏显著下行驱动。不过从更加中期的维度来看，明年油价的供需形势不容乐观，一方面需求复苏接近顶部，另一方面美国页岩油产量将加快复苏，伊朗石油大概率重返市场，三大机构平衡表均指向原油从供不应求转为供过于求，随着疫情接近中后期，石油市场也将逐步重返常态化。

策略：中性，做多柴油裂解价差（Gasoil-Brent）

风险：美国释放战略储备

铜：加息预期对铜价形成压制

现货方面：据SMM讯，现货市场昨日则凸显有价无市之态，早市平水铜对12合约始报于升水800元/吨，市场难闻询盘者，持货商见状纷纷主动快速调降升贴水至600-700元/吨，市场依旧难闻成交。10点前后，持货商再度调价至升水550-580元/吨后才逐渐吸引市场买盘，第二时段后，随着隔月价差的扩大，部分持货商重新调高报价至升水580-600元/吨使对当月票报价稳定在平水附近，但实际成交寥寥。好铜和湿法铜也同步跟随平水铜呈现调降之势。好铜对12合约从升水800元/吨逐渐调降至升水600元/吨依旧难闻成交，贵溪铜持货商则挺价于对当月票升水110元/吨的交易所补贴。湿法铜则从升水600元/吨一路调降至升水400元/吨左右，盘面小幅走高后，下游维持谨慎观望态度，市场难闻大量买兴。

观点：

昨日铜价整体维持震荡态势。宏观方面，英美央行加息预期升温，11月美国纽约联储制造业指数超预期上升，部分助长市场加息预期，市场预期美联储明年到7月时的加息次数创新高；调查显示经济学家预期英国央行12月加息。欧央行行长拉加德周一重申，尽管高通胀将比预期持续更长时间，但明年不会加息。德国最大银行德意志银行CEO反驳欧央行对“通胀是暂时”的预判，警告超宽松货币政策已经失灵，呼吁欧央行在通胀飙升之际收紧政策。

国内方面，10月份工业增加值、消费等经济指标有所改善，全年城镇新增就业目标提前完成，表明经济运行总体平稳持续恢复，发展韧性继续显现。

整体看来，加息预期对铜价形成压制，单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：TA加工费持续偏弱

一、PX加工费低位盘整

（1）浙石化PX第三条线仍未明显提负，福海创80万吨停车至年底，福建联合85万吨11.10停车2个月，印度OMPL兑现检修。亚洲PX11-12月累库速率不大， PX加工费140美元/吨附近低位基本已压缩到位。

二、PTA加工费仍偏弱

（1）目前PTA检修量级不多，终端负反馈背景下，PTA加工费持续压在500以下。

三、长丝降价促销

（1）周初长丝降价促销，产销放量至175%。（2）江浙地区双控政策仍存，终端负荷受压；终端订单表现不佳。

平衡表展望：PTA11-12月持续逐步进入累库周期。

策略建议：（1）单边：PTA及PX加工费基本压缩到位，原油基准预期回调有限，单边价格观望。（2）跨期套利：累库预期背景下，1-5价差反套。

风险：低加工费背景下PTA工厂的潜在检修可能，浙石化PX提负进展，聚酯低负荷的持续时长