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### Daily morning for Crude oil, PTA, natural rubber, iron ore, copper Iro (ZH & EN) 2021.11.17

submitted 2021-11-17 10:16:15

Iron Ore: The black series collectively rise and then fall back. Iron ore is easy to fall but hard to rise.

Logic and perspective:

Yesterday, the heads of China and the United States had a video meeting, and the whole process showed a little dovish signal. Black commodities in early trading were slightly stronger. In the afternoon, with the sharp correction of thread and hot-rolled coil, coking coal and coke, iron ore showed an inverted V pattern throughout the day. At the close, iron ore futures closed at 540 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore at Caofeidian Port fluctuated throughout the day; PB fines was 595 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous day; SSF was 380 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of transactions, a total of 923,000 tons of iron ore in major ports nationwide were traded, a decrease of 4.3% from the previous day, and a total of 1.06 million tons of forward spot transactions (9 transactions) were traded, an increase of 79.7% from the previous day. In terms of basis, PB fines was around RMB 130/ton, and SSF was around RMB 30/ton. The overall change was little.

On the whole, due to the country's strict control over the real estate industry, steel consumption has experienced a cliff-like decline since the third quarter. With the rapid decline in steel prices, the profits of the long-term process are rapidly compressed until they fall near the cost of the steel plant, and even losses occur, resulting in extremely bearish raw material prices. At present, the iron ore is not driven by a little bit of bullishness, but is frequently falling. However, since iron ore has fallen below US$80 and has strong support, further decline requires greater accumulation of contradictions. Therefore, in the short term, there is an interval trend, ranging from 500 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton. Strategies: Unilateral: go short when prices hit high levels Arbitrage: None Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None Options: None Inter-period: None Cross-species: None Concerns and risks: 1. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy. 2. Risk of rising sea freight, etc. Rubber: Port inventory continues to be destocked. On November 16, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,695 (+155) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,975 (+50) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -745 yuan/ton (+145); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 62,649 (-2,981) lots, the short position was 82,889 (-3,242) lots, and the net short position was 20,240 (-261) lots. On November 16, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,700 (+85) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,792.5 (+17.5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,790 (+25) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,770 (+60) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -385 (+303) yuan/ton. As of November 12: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 307,325 (+9,869) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 253,940 (+11,690) tons. Raw materials: Sheet rubber 53 (-0.83), cup lump 48.75 (+0.5), latex 53 (+0.5), RSS3 57.35 (-0.2). As of November 11, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 64% (+3%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 60% (+3.52%). Opinion: The latest port inventory data continued to decline, mainly due to insipid arrivals, while the increase in downstream purchases made the inventory further decline. At present, we have not seen the turning point of accumulated inventory, and we will focus on the situation of arrival at ports in the future. According to the current shipping situation, the postponement of the shipping schedule continues. It is expected that it will take a long time for concentrated arrivals at ports, and the inflection point of the accumulated inventory will be postponed, which will continue to support domestic rubber prices. The reopening of Yunnan Mohan Port yesterday will cause some short-term spot prices to loosen, and the overall impact is expected to be small. The tire factory operating rate has continued to rise recently, mainly in preparation for the peak domestic terminal sales at the end of the year. At the same time, due to the transfer of part of the pre-finished product inventory to the distributor, the pressure on the finished product inventory of the tire factory has slowed down. The increase in the purchase of downstream raw materials has brought support for rubber prices, making rubber prices expected to continue to fluctuate at high levels. Strategy: Cautiously bullish Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc. Crude oil: API crude oil inventories increased slightly, while gasoline inventories fell sharply. There are still big differences within the White House on releasing reserves to curb inflation. We mentioned in this week's weekly report that although releasing of reserves can curb oil prices, it has a short-term effect and is of little help to the current structural tightness of the US refined oil market. To improve the current gasoline shortage, refineries need to further increase the operating rate or increase the net gasoline imports. At present, the White House is considering ways to control oil prices, including releasing strategic reserves, adjusting the renewable energy policy (RINS), and prohibiting the export of crude oil and refined oil products. But no matter what kind of policy tool, there are certain side effects. This is also the biggest reason why Biden's policy has been unresolved on the issue of releasing reserves in the near future. However, the current inflation problem has already produced greater political pressure on the Biden administration. We believe that the introduction of relevant policies in the future is still a high probability event. Strategy: Neutral, go long of diesel crack spread (Gasoil-Brent Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves. Copper: The US economic data is improving, and the US dollar is strong and copper prices are falling. Spot: According to SMM, yesterday was the first day after the rolling over. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copper began to offer a premium of 600 yuan/ton, a premium of 800 yuan/ton for High-Grade Copper, and a premium of 450-500 yuan/ton for Hydro-Copper and Low-Quality Copper. However, the market was holding a wait-and-see attitude, and trade recipients and downstream were waiting for price cuts after the stalemate. However, the response of the holders surprised the market. After 9:30, as the market price rebounded from a low level, the quotation instantly surpassed the premium of 650-670 yuan/ton, and jumped directly to the premium of 700 yuan/ton. After being sold out in an instant with a premium of 750 yuan/ton in the early days of the market, the High-Grade CopperPeru slab stabilized at around a premium of 800 yuan/ton. Guixi Copper offered a high premium of 850 yuan/ton. Hydro-Copperfollowed the general market trend and rose sharply to around a premium of 550 yuan/ton. At its peak, it once exceeded 600 yuan/ton. View: Copper prices showed a downward trend as a whole yesterday. On the macro level, after Germany suspended approval of the Beixi No. 2 project, which was regarded by Russia as an important condition for increasing the supply of natural gas to Europe, Dutch natural gas futures rose by 11%. The speech by Democratic Leader Steny Hoyer of the US House of Representatives lowered the market's expectations of the Biden administration's release of strategic oil reserves. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that the increase in crude oil production will help ease global oil supply tensions. International crude oil continued to fluctuate, with U.S. oil falling and Brent oil rebounding. St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Brad gave a hawkish speech, arguing that the Fed should speed up Taper in order to combat inflation, not by the middle of next year, but by the first quarter of next year to end bond purchases. On the same day, San Francisco Fed President Daly continued to insist that inflation is temporary, saying that patience is the best way to deal with the current high inflation. U.S. retail sales grew faster than expected in October, setting the fastest month-on-month growth rate in seven months. Industrial output in October and the confidence of home builders in November were also better than expected. The positive economic data in the United States eased investors' demand for safe-haven, precious metals gold and silver closed down, and gold, which hit a five-month high during the session, turned down. As the US dollar strengthened, some base metals such as London Copper fell. Domestically, leaders of China and the United States held video meetings on Sino-US relations and related issues, and exchanged views on Sino-US relations and issues of mutual concern. The capitals of the two countries believe that the meeting was frank, constructive, substantive, and fruitful, which is conducive to enhancing mutual understanding between the two sides, increasing the positive expectations of the international community on Sino-US relations, and sending strong signals to China, the United States and the world. On the whole, the US economic data is improving, and the dollar is strengthening and copper prices are falling. Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks. Strategies: 1. Unilateral: neutral 2. Inter-market: postpone 3. Inter-period: postpone 4. Options: postpone Focus point: 1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation 2. The trend of the US dollar index 3. Policy risks may increase. PTA: TA processing fees rebounded from a low level. 1. PX processing fees continue to be low. (1) The third production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX still has not significantly increased the load. India OMPL started to overhaul. Asia's PX accumulated inventory rate in November-December was not large; The low level near PX processing fee of US$140-150/ton has been basically compressed in place.

2. PTA processing fees rebounded from a low level.

Currently, there are not many PTA overhauls. In the context of terminal negative feedback, the early PTA processing fee continued to be held at around 450. However, it has rebounded from a low level recently.

3. The production and sales of filaments have fallen.

(1) Filament production and sales fell back to 35%. (2) The dual control policy still exists in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the terminal load is under pressure. Poor performance of terminal orders.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle from November to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: PTA and PX processing fees are basically compressed in place, and the correction of crude oil benchmarks is expected to be limited. It is recommended that on unilateral prices, taking a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: Potential overhauls of PTA factories under the background of low processing fees; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

16号，RU主力收盘14695+155）元/吨，混合胶报价12975/吨（+50），主力合约基差-745/吨（+145）；前二十主力多头持仓62649-2981），空头持仓82889-3242），净空持仓20240-261）。

16号，NR主力收盘价11700+85）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1792.5+17.5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1790美元/吨（+25），印尼标胶1770+60）美元/吨。主力合约基差-385+303）元/吨。

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTATA加工费低位反弹

1）浙石化PX第三条线仍未明显提负，福海创80万吨停车至年底，福建联合85万吨11.10停车2个月，印度OMPL兑现检修。亚洲PX11-12月累库速率不大， PX加工费140-150美元/吨附近低位基本已压缩到位。

1）目前PTA检修量级不多，终端负反馈背景下，前期PTA加工费持续压在450附近。近日低位反弹。

1）长丝产销回落至35%。（2）江浙地区双控政策仍存，终端负荷受压；终端订单表现不佳。