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Daily morning for Crude oil, PTA, natural rubber, iron ore, copper Iro (ZH & EN) 2021.11.19

Fang submitted 2021-11-19 10:51:45

Iron Ore: Steel consumption is weak, and the iron ore futures and spot markets will experience another cold winter.

Logic and perspective:

Yesterday, the Steel Union announced the production, sales and inventory of five building materials commonly used in construction this week. The data shows that the total consumption of the five major materials is 9.47 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons on a weekly basis. Among them, the thread consumption decreased by 30,000 tons, and the hot-rolled coil consumption decreased by 40,000 tons.The current time is an absolute peak season, but the performance of this group of data is significantly lower than market expectations, leading to an increase in the weak trend of iron ore in the afternoon. At the close, iron ore futures closed at 511.5 yuan/ton, down by 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and hit a new low. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore at Caofeidian Port: PB fines was 567 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous day; SSF was 362 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day; market trading sentiment was relatively insipid. In terms of transactions, a total of 865,000 tons of iron ore mines in major ports nationwide were traded, up 25.4% month-on-month. A total of 340,000 tons of forward spot transactions (2 transactions), a month-on-month decrease of 38.2%. In terms of basis, PB fines was around RMB 120/ton, and SSF was around RMB 40/ton. The overall change was little.

On the whole, due to the country's strict control over the real estate industry, steel consumption has experienced a cliff-like decline since the third quarter. With the rapid decline in steel prices, the profits of the long-term process are rapidly compressed until they fall near the cost of the steel plant, and even losses occur, resulting in extremely bearish raw material prices. Due to the decline in the full variety of spot products, the delivery grade of iron ore may be switched from the original SSF to JMBF, PB, or Newman. The brand premium of iron ore is the spread between the medium-to-high grade and the low grade, which is about 70-80 yuan/ton. As a result, JMBF is about to become the best delivery grade of iron ore, which further opens up the downside for iron ore.

Strategies:

Unilateral: go short when prices hit high levels

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The state stimulates the economy.

2. The introduction of friendly real estate policy.

3. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: The market atmosphere is weak and rubber prices are under pressure.

On November 18, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,390 (-225) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12,875 (-75) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -815 yuan/ton (0); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 63,619 (-587) lots, the short position was 87,711 (+1,385) lots, and the net short position was 24,092 (+1,972) lots.

On November 18, the most-active NR contract closed at 11,375 (-205) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,780 (-15) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,775 (-15) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,755 (-15) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -178 (+86) yuan/ton.

As of November 12: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 307,325 (+9,869) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 253,940 (+11,690) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 54.25 (-0.1), cup lump 48.8 (-0.4), latex 55.5 (+1), RSS3 57.19 (-0.46).

As of November 11, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 64% (+3%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 60% (+3.52%).

Opinion: The weakening of copper yesterday may indicate a pessimistic outlook on the future. The weak market atmosphere has hindered the further rebound of rubber prices. At the same time, the weakness of crude oil prices will also drag down the future expectations of synthetic rubber prices, making the support of the strong synthetic rubber prices in the early stage for rubber gradually disappearing. From the perspective of the supply side, the recent re-entry of index rubber has mainly eased the expectation of tight domestic supply. However, port logistics has not yet been resolved, and inventory continues to be destocked. It is expected that the room for adjustment of rubber prices is limited.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The United States may coordinate multi-country joint release of reserves, but the outlook is still uncertain.

Although the United States has proposed a joint release of strategic reserves to many countries, the attitude of Japan, South Korea and other countries is still unclear. The IEA stated that its coordination of member states to release strategic reserves is more for responding to emergency supply disruptions than for regulating oil prices. Japan and South Korea have also expressed similar demands. It is still ambiguous whether to agree to the proposal of the United States to release reserves in the future. Both China and India have released reserves this year. According to market sources, in the future, China may conduct a second round of State Reserve auctions at the end of this year, with potential releases ranging from 10 to 15 million barrels. However, we believe that China's release of national reserve stocks needs to be replenished next year or in the future, so the impact on prices is relatively short-term. In the medium term, China still needs a new round of inventory replenishment. On the whole, we believe that the United States still has many difficulties in coordinating the multi-country joint release of reserves. Even if it is actually implemented in the future, the intensity may be lower than market expectations.

Strategy: Neutral, go long of diesel crack spread (Gasoil-Brent

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves or adopts other policies to curb oil prices.

Copper: The shortage of stocks intensified, and the LME ushered in the inventory again, which led to a rebound in copper prices.

In terms of spot: According to SMM, some holders of Standard-Grade Copper in the morning market started to offer a premium of 980 yuan/ton, and this batch of sources was immediately sold out when they entered the market. Upon seeing this, the holders raised their quotations to more than 1,000 yuan, which quickly reached a premium of 1150 yuan/ton, but it was still difficult to discourage buying in the market. After the holders again raised the premium to 1,300 yuan/ton in the second period, market transactions slowed down, and the market's rising price sentiment eased. High-Grade Copper and Hydro-Copper also followed the quotations of Standard-Grade Copper all the way up. High-Grade Copper also offered a premium of 1,200-1250 yuan/ton in the morning market. After the second period, the quotation gradually rushed to a premium of 1,400-1450 yuan/ton, but the overall market favor was limited, and the market trading activity was obviously not as good as that of Standard-Grade Copper. A small amount of Hydro-Copper was quoted at a premium of 700 yuan/ton in the morning. After being sold out by the downstream, the premium remained at 900 yuan/ton. After the second period, Hydro-Copper also followed the rising price of Standard-Grade Copper and reported a premium of about 1150 yuan/ton, but the buying interest in the downstream dropped significantly under the high premium pattern, returning to a cautious wait-and-see attitude.

View:

On the macro front, traders bet that the European Central Bank will remain accommodative for the next two years, and the money market will postpone the ECB’s first interest rate hike until February 2023. Although there was news that the United States called on other countries to release strategic oil reserves to jointly suppress oil prices, the White House Press Secretary also confirmed that they had discussed working with other countries to meet the needs of the oil supply market. However, international crude oil rebounded, breaking away from the low since early October set on Wednesday. Recent manufacturing surveys conducted by the Philadelphia and New York Fed have shown that inflationary pressures continue to accumulate as demand continues to strengthen and further pressures the supply chain. New York Fed President Williams said that although some price increases are related to the epidemic and imbalances between supply and demand, there are also price increases in other areas such as housing. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that based on current forecasts, it is suitable to start raising interest rates next summer. The US House of Representatives will vote on Biden's $2 trillion economic plan today. After the House of Representatives passes, the bill will be submitted to the Senate, and there are still uncertainties in the scale and timing of its implementation.

On the whole, the shortage of goods has intensified, and the LME will usher in the inventory again and lead to a rebound in copper prices. Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Cautiously bearish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Crude oil drives the price of PTA to pull back.

1. PX processing fees rebounded from low levels.

(1) The third production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX still has not significantly increased the load. India OMPL started to overhaul. Asia's PX accumulated inventory rate in November-December was not large; The PX processing fee has been compressed in place on the left and rebounded from the low this week.

2. PTA processing fees continue to be weak.

Currently, there are not many PTA overhauls. PTA processing cost is lowered to 450 or less. Under the background of low processing costs, Yisheng Dahua 225 and Hengli 250 have follow-up maintenance plans.

3. The production and sales of filaments have fallen.

(1) Filament production and sales fell back to 40%. (2) The dual control policy still exists in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the terminal load is under pressure. Poor performance of terminal orders.

Balance sheet outlook: PTA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle from November to December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: PTA and PX processing fees are basically compressed in place, and the correction of crude oil benchmarks is expected to be limited. It is recommended that on unilateral prices, taking a wait-and-see attitude.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.

Risks: Potential overhauls of PTA factories under the background of low processing fees; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿:钢材消费遇冷,铁矿石期现再迎寒冬

逻辑和观点:

昨日,钢联公布了本周五大材的产销存情况,数据显示:五大材总体消费947万吨,周度环比增加2万吨,其中螺纹消费减少3万吨,热卷消费减少4万吨,当下属于绝对旺季,该组数据表现大幅低于市场预期,午后加剧了铁矿石的弱势走势。至收盘,铁矿石期货收511.5/吨,较上一交易日下跌26/吨,创收盘新低。现货方面,曹妃甸港进口铁矿价格:PB567/吨,较前日下跌23/吨,超特粉362/吨,较前日下跌13/吨,市场交投情绪较为一般。成交方面,全国主港铁矿累计成交86.5万吨,环比上涨25.4%,远期现货累计成交34万吨(2笔),环比下降38.2%。基差方面,PB120/吨附近,超特粉40/吨附近,整体变化不大。

整体来看,由于国家对地产行业的严厉管控,导致三季度以来,钢材消费出现断崖式下跌。随着钢价的快速下跌,长流程利润快速压缩,直至钢厂成本附近,甚至出现亏损,极大的利空原料价格。由于现货的全品种下跌,使得铁矿的交割品级,或将由原来的超特切换为金布巴、PB、麦克或纽曼,铁矿石的品牌溢价就是中高品和低品的价差,大概在7080/吨,由此金布巴即将有望成为铁矿石最佳交割品级,为此铁矿石进一步打开了下跌空间。

策略:

单边:逢高做空

套利:无

期现:无

期权:无

跨品种:无

关注及风险点:

国家对经济刺激,以及友好地产政策的出台,海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶:市场氛围偏弱,胶价承压

18号,RU主力收盘14390-225)元/吨,混合胶报价12875/吨(-75),主力合约基差-815/吨(0);前二十主力多头持仓63619-587),空头持仓87711+1385),净空持仓24092+1972)。

18号,NR主力收盘价11375-205)元/吨,青岛保税区泰国标胶1780-15)美元/吨,马来西亚标胶1775美元/吨(-15),印尼标胶1755-15)美元/吨。主力合约基差-178+86)元/吨。

截至1112日:交易所总库存307325+9869),交易所仓单253940+11690)。

原料:生胶片54.25-0.1),杯胶48.8-0.4),胶水55.5+1),烟片57.19-0.46)。

截止1111日,国内全钢胎开工率为64%+3%),国内半钢胎开工率为60%(+3.52%)。

观点:昨天铜的走弱,或预示着对于后期宏观的悲观,市场氛围的弱势,对于胶价的进一步反弹有所阻碍。同时原油价格的弱势,也会拖累合成胶价格的后市预期,使得前期合成胶价格强势对于橡胶的支撑在逐步消失。供应端来看,近期主要是指标胶的重新进入,缓解国内供应偏紧的预期,但港口物流仍未解决,库存持续去化。预计胶价调整的空间有限。

策略:中性

风险:产量大幅增加,库存大幅累积,需求示弱等。

原油:美国或协调多国联合抛储,但前景仍不明朗

虽然美国方面已经向多个国家提出了联合释放战略储备的提案,但目前日本、韩国等国家态度仍旧不明确,IEA表示其协调成员国释放战略储备更多是用于应对紧急的供应中断事件,而非调控油价,而日本、韩国也表达了类似的诉求,未来是否同意美国联合抛储这一提案态度仍旧暧昧,而中国和印度均在今年进行过抛储,据市场消息称未来中国可能在今年年底进行第二轮的国储拍卖,潜在的释放的量级在10001500万桶,但我们认为中国释放的国储库存需要在明年或者未来进行回补,因此对价格的影响相对偏短期,中期来看,中国仍然需要进行新一轮补库,总体来看,我们认为美国协调多国联合抛储的方案仍有诸多困难,未来即便是真正实施可能力度会低于市场预期。

策略:中性,做多柴油裂解价差(Gasoil-Brent

风险:美国释放战略储备或采取其他抑制油价政策

铜:缺货现象愈演愈烈,LME再迎去库铜价反弹

现货方面:据SMM讯,昨日现货市场随着盘面的快速回调,在低库存逻辑以及进口进项票缺票问题下持货商高挺升水。早市平水铜部分持货商始报于升水980/吨入市即秒,持货商见状纷纷上调报价至千元之上,报价迅速来到升水1150/吨,但依旧难阻市场买盘,持货商在第二时段再度上调至升水1300/吨之后,市场成交才有所放缓,市场高涨的挺价情绪才有所缓和。好铜和湿法铜也一路跟随平水铜报价一路走高,早市好铜还报至升水1200-1250/吨,第二时段后报价便逐渐冲至升水1400-1450/吨,但市场整体青睐度有限,市场交投活跃度明显不及平水铜。湿法铜早市少量升水700/吨被下游抢购一空后便挺价于升水900/吨,第二时段后也跟随平水铜报价水涨船高报至升水1150/吨左右,但下游在高升水格局下买兴明显回落,回归谨慎观望态度。

观点:

宏观方面,交易者押注欧洲央行近两年保持宽松,货币市场将欧洲央行首次加息的时间预期推迟至20232月。虽然前期传出美国呼吁其他国家释放战略油储共同打压油价的消息,白宫新闻秘书也确认讨论过和别国一起满足供应油市需求,但国际原油反弹,摆脱周三所创的10月初以来低谷。近日费城及纽约联储的制造业调查显示,在需求持续走强并进一步令供应链承压的情况下,通胀压力继续积聚。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示虽然一些价格上涨和疫情以及供需失衡有关,但也有住房等其他一些领域出现价格上涨。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克称,基于当前预测,适合明年夏季开始加息。今日美国众议院将表决拜登的2万亿美元经济计划,众议院通过后,该法案将提交参议院,规模及兑现时间上仍存不确定性。

整体看来,缺货现象愈演愈烈,LME再迎去库铜价反弹,单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

策略:

1. 单边:谨慎看空 2. 跨市:暂缓 3. 跨期:暂缓;4. 期权:暂缓

关注点:

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA:原油带动PTA成本型回调

一、PX加工费低位反弹

1)浙石化PX第三条线仍未明显提负,福海创80万吨停车至年底,福建联合85万吨11.10停车2个月,印度OMPL兑现检修。亚洲PX11-12月累库速率不大,前期PX加工费已左侧压缩到位。本周低位反弹。

二、PTA加工费持续偏弱

1)目前PTA检修量级不多,PTA加工费压至450以下。低加工费背景下,逸盛大化225以及恒力一套250后续有检修计划。

三、长丝产销仍偏弱

1)长丝产销仍偏弱在40%

平衡表展望:PTA11-12月持续逐步进入累库周期,关注后续PTA企业检修兑现情况。

策略建议:(1)单边:PTAPX加工费基本压缩到位,原油基准预期回调有限,单边价格观望。(2)跨期套利:累库预期背景下,1-5价差反套。

风险:低加工费背景下PTA工厂的潜在检修可能,浙石化PX提负进展,聚酯低负荷的持续时长

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