Iron Ore: The downstream recovery is expected to heat up, and iron ore may fluctuate widely in the short term.

Viewpoint and logic:

Yesterday, the black series continued to rebound as a whole. The main iron ore contract rebounded strongly on Friday night. There was a slight adjustment in early trading on Monday, but continued to rebound in the afternoon, closing up 6.18% to close at 558 yuan/ton. In terms of spot, the port spot price of imported iron ore continued to rise in the afternoon, with a cumulative increase of 0-20 yuan/WT throughout the day. Qingdao Port PB fines is 590-595 yuan/ WT, and SSF is 390-395 yuan/ WT.

On the supply side, from November 15 to November 21, according to Mysteel statistics, Australia and Brazil shipped 25.783 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 4.224 million tons from the previous week. Australia shipped 18.191 million tons, an increase of 2.717 million tons from the previous week. Among them, Australia sent 15.296 million tons to China, an increase of 2.401 million tons from the previous week. Brazil shipped 7.592 million tons, an increase of 1.507 million tons from the previous week. From November 15 to 21, China’s 45 ports totaled 24.622 million tons, an increase of 1.081 million tons from the previous week. The total arrivals from at six northern ports were 11.272 million tons, a decrease of 495,000 tons from the previous week.

On the whole, shipments from Australia and Brazil increased this week, and arrivals at ports also picked up. The supply side continues to be loose, and iron ore port stocks have accumulated inventory for 8 consecutive weeks. On the demand side, the operating rate of the blast furnace dropped slightly last week, and the output of molten iron remained low. However, in the short term, as the profits of steel mills have picked up, Tangshan also lifted the secondary response to heavy pollution weather. In addition, there are frequent news from the downstream real estate market, and the market has increased expectations for the resumption of production of steel mills. Although it is difficult to change the medium-term loose supply and demand pattern, iron ore may stop falling and rebound in the short-term.

Strategies:

Unilateral: go short when prices hit high levels

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The state stimulates the economy.

2. The introduction of friendly real estate policy.

3. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: Raw material prices continued to rise.

On November 22, the most-active RU contract closed at 15,470 (+475) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13,350 (+250) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -995 yuan/ton (-175); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 65,634 (-1,711) lots, the short position was 83,541 (+54) lots, and the net short position was 17,907 (+1,657) lots.

On November 22, the most-active NR contract closed at 12,150 (+365) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,860 (+65) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,855 (+70) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,815 (+40) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -543 (-87) yuan/ton.

As of November 12: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 307,325 (+9,869) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 253,940 (+11,690) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 54.25 (0), cup lump 49 (+0.1), latex 58 (+2.3), RSS3 58.77 (+1.12).

As of November 18, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 65.48% (+1.48%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 61.26% (+1.26%).

Opinion: The continuous rainfall in Thailand's main producing areas and the continued lack of domestic arrivals have resulted in a substantial increase in the price of rubber due to the support of the domestic supply side. The main production area in Yunnan is approaching to stop delivery, and the growth of raw materials is limited, and the prices of raw materials at home and abroad continue to rise. After the cancellation of the RU warehouse receipt last week, the market inventory pressure further eased. The RU01 contract position has not been released for a long time, or it also shows some concerns about the delivery products. With the arrival of the peak season for domestic downstream terminal production and concerns about the impact of power curtailment that may occur in the later period, the phenomenon of factory rushing is obvious, which has brought a significant rebound in raw material procurement demand. Under tight supply and demand, rubber prices will remain strong.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: Some OPEC countries are dissatisfied with the SPR plan.

There have been two large-scale release of reserves in the history of the United States. One was in 2005 in response to a supply disruption caused by Hurricane Kaserina, and the other was in 2011 in response to a supply disruption caused by the civil war in Libya. The scale of the two SPR was 30 million barrels. Judging from the impact of previous SPR, the average drop in oil prices after the release of the reserves was 12%, but within the next three months, the decline before it was basically restored. Therefore, from the perspective of the United States alone, the release of reserves in the past was mainly in response to sudden supply interruptions. Although the effect of SPR on oil prices is significant, the effect is short-term. After the market gradually digested the negative effects of SPR, oil prices returned to the fundamentals, so the impact on oil prices in the medium term would be limited. From this point of view, if the United States can successfully combine Japan, South Korea, India, and China to release reserves in a coordinated manner, it will have a greater impact on short-term oil prices. But at the same time, OPEC may also cut production increases, and the drop in oil prices will also weaken the enthusiasm for shale oil production next year. Therefore, whether the SPR can play a role in stabilizing oil prices in the medium term is still uncertain, but it will play a certain role in alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand in the fourth quarter.

Strategy: Neutrally bearish, go long of diesel crack spread (Gasoil-Brent）

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves or adopts other policies to curb oil prices.

Copper: News of production cuts reappeared, and copper prices rose overnight.

Spot: According to SMM, after experiencing two consecutive days of crazy surge in the spot market last week, due to the large amount of copper storage on the weekend, and the market basis once again expanded to around BACK500 yuan/ton, the market returned to rationality. As a result, the premium and discount fell sharply and fell below 1,000 yuan. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copperbegan to offer a premium of more than 1,500 yuan/ton in an attempt to continue the high supporting price sentiment of last week, but there were few inquiries in the market. Coupled with the increase in market offers, some holders quickly adjusted their prices to a premium of around 1,200 yuan/ton, but it was almost impossible to make transactions in the market, and it was even harder to see any purchase in the downstream. The overall market quotation showed a rapid decline, and the offer from the holders fell below 1,000 yuan at around 10 o'clock. After the second period, some holders' quotations reached a premium of 800-850 yuan/ton before the transaction improved slightly. The premium at the end of the afternoon session has dropped to around a premium of 700 yuan/ton. Due to the influx of imported goods, the market quotation of High-Grade Copper quickly fell following the level of Standard-Grade Copper, from a premium of 1,400 yuan/ton to a premium of 950 yuan/ton. However, the market favor was limited, and there were few actual transactions in the market. There were few options for Hydro-Copper sources, and a small number of holders intended to raise the price. This made it difficult to see the spread between High-Grade Copper and Standard-Grade Copper. The quotation of High-Grade Copperdropped to 700 yuan/ton from a premium of 900 yuan/ton in a straight line. At the end of the afternoon market, there were signs of falling below the premium of 600 yuan/ton, and the downstream showed a cautious wait-and-see attitude.

View:

Yesterday, the daily copper price fluctuated, and the night copper price rose. On the macro front, Biden nominated Powell for re-election as the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell's re-election has a continuity effect on the Fed's policy and eliminates unstable factors. Traders expect the Fed to speed up Taper, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields rose intraday. Yesterday, US officials' speeches once again released hawkish signals. The Fed Bostic said that it is reasonable to consider speeding up the Fed's reduction in debt purchases. Former US Treasury Secretary Summers urged the Fed to start raising interest rates as soon as possible after the New Year. The Glencore Group said yesterday that due to high energy prices, the company will close part of its zinc production in Italy. In addition, Glencore's Portovesme zinc sulfide production line will begin maintenance at the end of next month, involving an annual output of 100,000 tons. In October, Trafigura’s Nyrstar and Glencore both cut production due to the soaring prices of natural gas and electricity in Europe. While the current gas supply problems in Europe are still continuing, Germany will suspend the certification of the "Beixi-2" project, which once again casts a shadow over the European energy problem. In terms of the epidemic, German Chancellor Merkel said that the fourth wave of epidemics is more serious than any epidemic experienced by Germany so far, and called for stricter restrictions to curb the further spread of the epidemic. At present, the incidence rate in eastern Saxony has risen to 1,000 per 100,000 people in 7 days, and it is expected that 6 million doses of Pfizer’s new crown vaccine will be urgently distributed early this week.

On the whole, news of production cuts reappeared, and copper prices rose overnight. Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Cautiously bearish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. Policy risks may increase.

PTA: Crude oil led to a fall in PTA, and processing fees rebounded slightly.

1. PX processing fees rebounded from low levels.

(1) The third line of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX started to increase the load, but Qingdao Lidong was still at a low load of 65%. Asia PX has a limited accumulation of inventory in November-December. The early PX processing fee has been compressed in the early stage, and a low rebound may be possible.

2. The PTA processing fee maintains a range consolidation.

(1) Crude oil led to a fall in PTA, but processing fees rebounded slightly. (2) Yisheng Dahua 225 and Hengli 250 are expected to be repaired in the future, and the PTA processing fee rebounds slightly to more than 500.

3. Filament production and sales are still weak.

(1) Under the background of filament inventory pressure, prices were cut again to make profits, but filament production and sales only rose to 70%.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of full implementation of PTA maintenance, December will end the inventory accumulation cycle and enter a small destocking phase. Pay attention to the implementation of follow-up PTA enterprise maintenance.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: PTA and PX processing fees are basically compressed in place, and the correction of crude oil benchmarks is expected to be limited. It is recommended that on unilateral prices, taking a wait-and-see attitude.

(2) Intertemporal: After the PTA maintenance was implemented in December, the inventory could not be accumulated continuously, and the 1-5 spread reverse strategy ended.

Risks: Implementation progress of PTA factory maintenance under the background of low processing fees; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿石：下游回暖预期升温，铁矿短期或宽幅震荡

观点与逻辑：

昨日黑色系整体延续反弹态势，铁矿石主力合约周五夜盘强势反弹，周一早盘略有调整，午后持续反弹，收盘涨6.18%，报收558元/吨。现货方面，进口铁矿港口现货午后价格持续上涨，全天累计上涨0-20元/湿吨；现青岛港PB粉590-595元/湿吨，超特粉390-395元/湿吨。

供给端来看，11月15日-11月21日本期Mysteel澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2578.3万吨，环比增加422.4万吨；澳洲发运量1819.1万吨，环比增加271.7万吨；其中澳洲发往中国的量1529.6万吨，环比增加240.1万吨；巴西发运量759.2万吨，环比增加150.7万吨。11月15日-21日，中国45港到港总量2462.2万吨，环比增加108.1万吨；北方六港到港总量为1127.2万吨，环比减少49.5万吨。

综合来看，本周澳巴发运转增，到港量也出现回升，供给端延续宽松状态，铁矿港口库存已连续8周累库；需求端上周高炉开工率小幅回落，铁水产量维持低位；但短期来看，随着钢厂利润有所回升，唐山地区也解除重污染天气二级相应，以及下游房地产市场消息频出，市场对钢厂复产预期增强。虽然中期供需宽松格局难改，但短期铁矿石或存在止跌反弹可能。

策略：

单边：逢高做空

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：

国家对经济刺激，以及友好地产政策的出台，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：原料价格延续上涨

22号，RU主力收盘15470（+475）元/吨，混合胶报价13350元/吨（+250），主力合约基差-995元/吨（-175）；前二十主力多头持仓65634（-1711），空头持仓83541（+54），净空持仓17907（+1657）。

22号，NR主力收盘价12150（+365）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1860（+65）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1855美元/吨（+70），印尼标胶1815（+40）美元/吨。主力合约基差-543（-87）元/吨。

截至11月12日：交易所总库存307325（+9869），交易所仓单253940（+11690）。

原料：生胶片54.25（0），杯胶49（+0.1），胶水58（+2.3），烟片58.77（+1.12）。

截止11月11日，国内全钢胎开工率为64%（+3%），国内半钢胎开工率为60%(+3.52%）。

观点：泰国主产区的持续降雨叠加国内到港持续偏少，国内供应端支撑带来胶价大幅上扬。国内云南主产区临近停割，原料增幅有限，国内外原料价格延续上涨。上周RU老胶仓单注销后，盘面库存压力进一步减缓，RU01合约持仓迟迟不下来，或也说明对于交割品的部分担忧。国内下游终端生产旺季来临以及担忧后期或有的限电影响，工厂赶工现象明显，带来原料采购需求明显回升。供需偏紧下，胶价将维持强势。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：产量大幅增加，库存大幅累积，需求示弱等。

原油：部分欧佩克国家对抛储计划不满

在美国历史上曾经两次较大规模的抛储，一次是在2005年为了应对卡瑟丽娜飓风导致的供应中断，另一次是在2011年为了应对利比亚内战导致的供应中断，两次抛储的规模均为3000万桶，从历次抛储影响来看，油价在抛储发布之后平均下跌幅度为12%，但在之后的三个月内基本修复之前跌幅，因此，单从美国自身来看，过往的抛储主要是为了应对突发性供应中断，抛储对于油价的影响虽然立竿见影，但时效偏短期，在市场逐步消化抛储利空之后，油价重新回到基本面主导，因此中期来看对于油价的影响有限，而就本次来看，如果美国能够成功联合日韩印中多国协同抛储，对于短期油价的影响会更大，但同时欧佩克可能也会削减增产，油价下跌也会削弱明年页岩油生产积极性，因此抛储是否能在中期时间内起到平抑油价的作用仍不确定，但对于四季度供需矛盾会起到一定的缓和作用。

策略：中性偏空，做多柴油裂解价差（Gasoil-Brent）

风险：美国释放战略储备或采取其他抑制油价政策

铜：减产消息再传，铜价夜盘拉升

现货方面：据SMM讯，现货市场则在经历了上周连续两日疯狂性的飙涨后，由于周末有铜大量入库，外加盘面基差再度扩大至BACK500元/吨左右，让市场回归理性，升贴水直接腰斩大泄，回落到千元之下。早市平水铜始报于升水1500元/吨以上试图延续上周高涨的挺价情绪，无奈市场询盘者寥寥，外加市场报盘增多的情况下，部分持货商逢高换现意愿下快速调价至升水1200元/吨附近，但市场几难有成交，下游更是难见买兴，市场整体报价呈现快速下滑状，10点左右持货商报盘便跌破千元整数关口，第二时段后部分持货商报价至升水800-850元/吨后成交才略有好转，午市尾盘升水已降至升水700元/吨附近。好铜由于进口货源流入让市场报价整体跟随平水铜快速回落，从升水1400元/吨快速回落至升水950元/吨，但市场青睐度有限，市场难闻大量实际成交。湿法铜货源可选择余地较少，少量持货商有意挺价，和平水铜难见价差，整体自升水900元/吨一线直线降至700元元/吨，午市尾盘已有跌破升水600元/吨的迹象，下游呈现谨慎观望态度。

观点：

昨日日盘铜价表现震荡，夜盘铜价拉升。宏观方面，拜登提名鲍威尔连任美联储主席，鲍威尔的连任，对于美联储政策有延续性作用，消除不稳定因素。交易者预期美联储将加快速度Taper，美元指数和美国国债收益率盘中拉升。昨日美国官员讲话再度放鹰，美联储博斯蒂克表示考虑加快美联储缩减购债的速度是有道理的，美国前财长萨默斯敦促美联储新年过后尽快开始加息。昨日嘉能可表示，受高能源价格影响，公司将关闭在意大利的部分锌生产。此外，嘉能可Portovesme硫化锌生产线将于下月底开始保养和维护，涉及年产10万吨。10月间，托克集团旗下的Nyrstar和嘉能可均受欧洲天然气和电力价格飙升影响削减了产量。而当前欧洲供气问题还在延续，德国将暂停对“北溪-2”项目的认证，此举给欧洲能源问题再度蒙上阴影。疫情方面，德国总理默克尔表示，第四波疫情比德国迄今为止经历的任何疫情都要严重，并呼吁采取更严格的限制措施以遏制疫情进一步扩散。目前萨克森州东部每10万人7天发病率升至1000，并预计本周初紧急将分发600万剂辉瑞新冠疫苗。

整体看来，减产消息再传，铜价夜盘拉升，单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧

PTA：原油带动PTA成本型回落，加工费小幅反弹

一、PX加工费低位反弹

（1）浙石化PX第三条线开始提负，但青岛丽东低负荷6成5，福海创80万吨停车至年底，福建联合85万吨11.10停车2个月。亚洲PX11-12月累库速率有限，前期PX加工费前期已压缩到位，低位反弹可能。

二、PTA加工费区间盘整

（1）原油带动PTA成本型回落，但加工费小幅反弹。（2）逸盛大化225以及恒力一套250后续有检修预期，PTA加工费小幅反弹至500以上。

三、长丝产销仍偏弱

（1）长丝库存压力背景下再度降价让利，但长丝产销仅上升至70%。

平衡表展望：PTA检修全兑现背景下，12月将结束累库周期而进入小幅去库阶段，关注后续PTA企业检修兑现情况。

策略建议：（1）单边：PTA及PX加工费基本压缩到位，原油基准预期回调有限，单边价格观望。（2）跨期套利：12月PTA检修兑现后未能持续累库，1-5价差反套策略结束。

风险：低加工费背景下PTA工厂检修兑现进度，浙石化PX提负进展，聚酯提负空间