Iron Ore: The downstream recovery is expected to heat up, and iron ore may fluctuate widely in the short term.
Viewpoint and logic:
Yesterday, the black series continued to rebound as a whole. The main iron ore contract rebounded strongly on Friday night. There was a slight adjustment in early trading on Monday, but continued to rebound in the afternoon, closing up 6.18% to close at 558 yuan/ton. In terms of spot, the port spot price of imported iron ore continued to rise in the afternoon, with a cumulative increase of 0-20 yuan/WT throughout the day. Qingdao Port PB fines is 590-595 yuan/ WT, and SSF is 390-395 yuan/ WT.
On the supply side, from November 15 to November 21, according to Mysteel statistics, Australia and Brazil shipped 25.783 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 4.224 million tons from the previous week. Australia shipped 18.191 million tons, an increase of 2.717 million tons from the previous week. Among them, Australia sent 15.296 million tons to China, an increase of 2.401 million tons from the previous week. Brazil shipped 7.592 million tons, an increase of 1.507 million tons from the previous week. From November 15 to 21, China’s 45 ports totaled 24.622 million tons, an increase of 1.081 million tons from the previous week. The total arrivals from at six northern ports were 11.272 million tons, a decrease of 495,000 tons from the previous week.
On the whole, shipments from Australia and Brazil increased this week, and arrivals at ports also picked up. The supply side continues to be loose, and iron ore port stocks have accumulated inventory for 8 consecutive weeks. On the demand side, the operating rate of the blast furnace dropped slightly last week, and the output of molten iron remained low. However, in the short term, as the profits of steel mills have picked up, Tangshan also lifted the secondary response to heavy pollution weather. In addition, there are frequent news from the downstream real estate market, and the market has increased expectations for the resumption of production of steel mills. Although it is difficult to change the medium-term loose supply and demand pattern, iron ore may stop falling and rebound in the short-term.
Unilateral: go short when prices hit high levels
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks:
1. The state stimulates the economy.
2. The introduction of friendly real estate policy.
3. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.
Rubber: Raw material prices continued to rise.
On November 22, the most-active RU contract closed at 15,470 (+475) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13,350 (+250) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -995 yuan/ton (-175); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 65,634 (-1,711) lots, the short position was 83,541 (+54) lots, and the net short position was 17,907 (+1,657) lots.
On November 22, the most-active NR contract closed at 12,150 (+365) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,860 (+65) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,855 (+70) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,815 (+40) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -543 (-87) yuan/ton.
As of November 12: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 307,325 (+9,869) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 253,940 (+11,690) tons.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 54.25 (0), cup lump 49 (+0.1), latex 58 (+2.3), RSS3 58.77 (+1.12).
As of November 18, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 65.48% (+1.48%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 61.26% (+1.26%).
Opinion: The continuous rainfall in Thailand's main producing areas and the continued lack of domestic arrivals have resulted in a substantial increase in the price of rubber due to the support of the domestic supply side. The main production area in Yunnan is approaching to stop delivery, and the growth of raw materials is limited, and the prices of raw materials at home and abroad continue to rise. After the cancellation of the RU warehouse receipt last week, the market inventory pressure further eased. The RU01 contract position has not been released for a long time, or it also shows some concerns about the delivery products. With the arrival of the peak season for domestic downstream terminal production and concerns about the impact of power curtailment that may occur in the later period, the phenomenon of factory rushing is obvious, which has brought a significant rebound in raw material procurement demand. Under tight supply and demand, rubber prices will remain strong.
Strategy: Cautiously bullish
Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.
Crude oil: Some OPEC countries are dissatisfied with the SPR plan.
There have been two large-scale release of reserves in the history of the United States. One was in 2005 in response to a supply disruption caused by Hurricane Kaserina, and the other was in 2011 in response to a supply disruption caused by the civil war in Libya. The scale of the two SPR was 30 million barrels. Judging from the impact of previous SPR, the average drop in oil prices after the release of the reserves was 12%, but within the next three months, the decline before it was basically restored. Therefore, from the perspective of the United States alone, the release of reserves in the past was mainly in response to sudden supply interruptions. Although the effect of SPR on oil prices is significant, the effect is short-term. After the market gradually digested the negative effects of SPR, oil prices returned to the fundamentals, so the impact on oil prices in the medium term would be limited. From this point of view, if the United States can successfully combine Japan, South Korea, India, and China to release reserves in a coordinated manner, it will have a greater impact on short-term oil prices. But at the same time, OPEC may also cut production increases, and the drop in oil prices will also weaken the enthusiasm for shale oil production next year. Therefore, whether the SPR can play a role in stabilizing oil prices in the medium term is still uncertain, but it will play a certain role in alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand in the fourth quarter.
Strategy: Neutrally bearish, go long of diesel crack spread (Gasoil-Brent）
Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves or adopts other policies to curb oil prices.
Copper: News of production cuts reappeared, and copper prices rose overnight.
Spot: According to SMM, after experiencing two consecutive days of crazy surge in the spot market last week, due to the large amount of copper storage on the weekend, and the market basis once again expanded to around BACK500 yuan/ton, the market returned to rationality. As a result, the premium and discount fell sharply and fell below 1,000 yuan. In the morning market, Standard-Grade Copperbegan to offer a premium of more than 1,500 yuan/ton in an attempt to continue the high supporting price sentiment of last week, but there were few inquiries in the market. Coupled with the increase in market offers, some holders quickly adjusted their prices to a premium of around 1,200 yuan/ton, but it was almost impossible to make transactions in the market, and it was even harder to see any purchase in the downstream. The overall market quotation showed a rapid decline, and the offer from the holders fell below 1,000 yuan at around 10 o'clock. After the second period, some holders' quotations reached a premium of 800-850 yuan/ton before the transaction improved slightly. The premium at the end of the afternoon session has dropped to around a premium of 700 yuan/ton. Due to the influx of imported goods, the market quotation of High-Grade Copper quickly fell following the level of Standard-Grade Copper, from a premium of 1,400 yuan/ton to a premium of 950 yuan/ton. However, the market favor was limited, and there were few actual transactions in the market. There were few options for Hydro-Copper sources, and a small number of holders intended to raise the price. This made it difficult to see the spread between High-Grade Copper and Standard-Grade Copper. The quotation of High-Grade Copperdropped to 700 yuan/ton from a premium of 900 yuan/ton in a straight line. At the end of the afternoon market, there were signs of falling below the premium of 600 yuan/ton, and the downstream showed a cautious wait-and-see attitude.
Yesterday, the daily copper price fluctuated, and the night copper price rose. On the macro front, Biden nominated Powell for re-election as the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell's re-election has a continuity effect on the Fed's policy and eliminates unstable factors. Traders expect the Fed to speed up Taper, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields rose intraday. Yesterday, US officials' speeches once again released hawkish signals. The Fed Bostic said that it is reasonable to consider speeding up the Fed's reduction in debt purchases. Former US Treasury Secretary Summers urged the Fed to start raising interest rates as soon as possible after the New Year. The Glencore Group said yesterday that due to high energy prices, the company will close part of its zinc production in Italy. In addition, Glencore's Portovesme zinc sulfide production line will begin maintenance at the end of next month, involving an annual output of 100,000 tons. In October, Trafigura’s Nyrstar and Glencore both cut production due to the soaring prices of natural gas and electricity in Europe. While the current gas supply problems in Europe are still continuing, Germany will suspend the certification of the "Beixi-2" project, which once again casts a shadow over the European energy problem. In terms of the epidemic, German Chancellor Merkel said that the fourth wave of epidemics is more serious than any epidemic experienced by Germany so far, and called for stricter restrictions to curb the further spread of the epidemic. At present, the incidence rate in eastern Saxony has risen to 1,000 per 100,000 people in 7 days, and it is expected that 6 million doses of Pfizer’s new crown vaccine will be urgently distributed early this week.
On the whole, news of production cuts reappeared, and copper prices rose overnight. Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks.
1. Unilateral: Cautiously bearish
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. Policy risks may increase.
PTA: Crude oil led to a fall in PTA, and processing fees rebounded slightly.
1. PX processing fees rebounded from low levels.
(1) The third line of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX started to increase the load, but Qingdao Lidong was still at a low load of 65%. Asia PX has a limited accumulation of inventory in November-December. The early PX processing fee has been compressed in the early stage, and a low rebound may be possible.
2. The PTA processing fee maintains a range consolidation.
(1) Crude oil led to a fall in PTA, but processing fees rebounded slightly. (2) Yisheng Dahua 225 and Hengli 250 are expected to be repaired in the future, and the PTA processing fee rebounds slightly to more than 500.
3. Filament production and sales are still weak.
(1) Under the background of filament inventory pressure, prices were cut again to make profits, but filament production and sales only rose to 70%.
Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of full implementation of PTA maintenance, December will end the inventory accumulation cycle and enter a small destocking phase. Pay attention to the implementation of follow-up PTA enterprise maintenance.
(1) Unilateral: PTA and PX processing fees are basically compressed in place, and the correction of crude oil benchmarks is expected to be limited. It is recommended that on unilateral prices, taking a wait-and-see attitude.
(2) Intertemporal: After the PTA maintenance was implemented in December, the inventory could not be accumulated continuously, and the 1-5 spread reverse strategy ended.
Risks: Implementation progress of PTA factory maintenance under the background of low processing fees; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.
1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.政策风险加剧