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Daily morning for Crude oil, PTA, natural rubber, iron ore, copper Iro (ZH & EN) 2021.11.29

Fang submitted 2021-11-29 10:16:58

Iron Ore: Disturbing factors increase, and ore prices continue to be under pressure.

Iron ore prices rebounded significantly last week. Although shipments and arrivals have increased, and port inventories have continued to accumulate, as the profits of downstream steel mills are restored, and the news is that real estate credit may loosen the margins, the market generally expects that the resumption of production by steel mills will drive the demand for iron ore, and the price of iron ore will generally rebound. As of last Friday's close, the Iron Ore 01 contract closed at 575.5 yuan/ton, up 39.5 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis. In terms of spot, the lowest price of the four main ports is 666 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 104 yuan/ton on a weekly basis; the SSF is 428 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 66 yuan/ton on a weekly basis. In terms of basis, little change has been made. The Platts 62% U.S. dollar index was 103 U.S. dollars, a week-on-week increase of 16 U.S. dollars.

On the supply side, according to Mysteel's statistics, the total global shipment volume is 32.8 million tons, an increase of 5.66 million tons on a weekly basis. Among them, shipments from Australia increased by 2.72 million tons from the previous month to 18.19 million tons; shipments from Brazil increased by 1.5 million tons from the previous month to 6.09 million tons; non-mainstream shipments increased by 7.01 million tons, an increase of 1.43 million tons on a weekly basis.

On the demand side, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a 69.66% blast furnace operating rate, a decrease of 0.69% from the previous week and a year-on-year decrease of 16.67%. The average daily molten iron output was 2.0167 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3,100 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 444,600 tons.

In terms of inventory, this week Mysteel calculated that the total iron ore inventory of 45 ports in China was 152.5147 million tons, and the accumulated inventory was 1.4528 million tons compared with the previous month. The daily average port congestion volume was 2.8141 million tons, a decrease of 83,400 tons from the previous month. At present, the number of ships in the port has dropped by 9 to 158.

On the whole, last week's shipment volume and arrival volume both increased, and the overall supply side continued to be loose. On the demand side, although the profit restoration of steel mills has driven some steel mills to actively resume production, due to the increase in the maintenance of regional steel mills with limited production, the average daily molten iron output has reached a new low, and the actual increase in demand is not obvious. Global shipments may continue to increase next week, downstream steel mills still have new maintenance plans, and the medium-term supply and demand easing pattern will remain unchanged. In addition, the discovery of a new variant of the new crown virus strain in South Africa has aroused concern in the international community, and fluctuations in the external market may increase. Under the influence of multiple factors, iron ore prices continued to be under pressure this week.


Unilateral: tend to be neutrally bearish in the long term

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. China relaxes or stimulates economic or real estate policies

2. Large-scale production cuts in the mine

3. Risk of rising sea freight

Rubber: The mutated virus reappears, and demand concerns increase.

In the first half of last week, prices continued to rise under the support of tight domestic supply. In the second half of the week, as the spread between futures and spot prices continued to widen, hedging pressure increased and the rise was blocked. On Friday, when the domestic epidemic suddenly appeared and the global mutant virus reappeared, the market's worries about the demand side gradually increased, and the futures price dropped significantly.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of November 26 was 188,350 tons (+8827), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 140,470 tons (+12,300). The domestic main producing areas in Yunnan ceased delivery at the end of November, and the increase in warehouse receipts will slow down in the future. As of November 21, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, and the decline continued to increase month-on-month. This is mainly due to the increase in downstream purchases, and the arrivals at ports have always been small. In the future, we need to pay attention to the turning point of accumulated inventory.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of November 25, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 65.96% (+0.48%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 62.25% (+0.99%). Downstream tire factories increased production for the small peak of domestic demand in the future, which led to a continued recovery in operating rates last week. Based on concerns about future power restrictions, the short-term operating rate is expected to be maintained.

Opinion: At present, the fundamentals of rubber have not changed much, and the main focus is still on the supply side. The emergence of the mutant virus in South Africa last weekend brought some uncertainty to the market, and the worries on the demand side reappeared. If the infection level of the new virus will be higher than that of the mutated virus in India, it may bring about a renewed tightening of global control. In addition, the current increase in rubber futures due to the excessively rapid increase in futures prices has increased the short-term adjustment pressure on the market. In the future, the release of market sentiment needs to pay attention to the overall market atmosphere.

Strategy: Neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The virus mutation has caused market concerns, and oil prices have plummeted.

The latest variant of the new coronavirus, Omicron, discovered in South Africa last Friday caused panic in the market, causing oil prices to fall by more than 10% on Friday. This black swan incident has made the market worry that future variants may spread rapidly around the world. The tightening of the national defense epidemic policy has led to a sharp drop in oil demand again, and what worries the market is that there is still greater uncertainty about whether the vaccine is effective against the new virus. Judging from the current situation, Omicron has spread rapidly in South Africa and other African countries, and related cases have been found in Europe, Hong Kong and other places. WHO recognizes Omicron as a variant of close attention (VOC). At the same time, the United States, Britain and other countries have taken swift actions to restrict entry into South Africa and other places. In addition, many pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer have begun to study and test the effectiveness of their vaccines against new variants. They stated that they could adjust the existing mRNA vaccines to the new virus within 6 weeks, and begin shipping the first batch of vaccines 100 days after the escape variant is identified. Up to now, the information about the virus itself is not sufficient, and further observation and official authoritative information are still needed. The market’s concerns about Omicron are mainly reflected in three aspects: infectiousness, vaccine effectiveness, and severe or fatalities. For now, Omicron has more mutations than Delta, so its high infectivity seems unavoidable. The current infection curve of the epidemic in South Africa also seems to confirm the high infectivity of the current virus, and the effectiveness of the vaccine and the fatality rate of severe cases need to wait for more data or the results of pharmaceutical companies to know.

In terms of the specific impact on the oil market, we believe that Friday’s decline was more due to the black swan incident in the epidemic and poor market liquidity during Thanksgiving. In the absence of key information about the variant virus, the market reacted slightly to overreaction. However, since all countries have announced travel restrictions on African epidemic hotspots including South Africa in the first time, this is a major negative for the jet fuel consumption that is currently recovering. And if subsequent countries’ anti-epidemic measures are further tightened, and cross-border business travel is tightened again, it is not ruled out that jet fuel consumption will turn down. And if the new virus spreads within the world's major economies, it will affect the oil transportation consumption of all countries. At present, the traffic congestion index in major regions of the world has recovered to a level above 90%. If there is the most pessimistic situation, that is, the current vaccines are less effective against the new virus and have a higher fatality rate, under the situation that the global epidemic prevention is tightened again, it is not ruled out that a repeat in April 2020 will occur. At that time, oil consumption plummeted by nearly 20% in one month. Although all countries have more experience in the prevention and control of the new crown, even if it affects 5% of oil consumption, the marginal impact on next year's supply and demand balance sheet will be very large. In addition, major countries including the United States have decided to release reserves, which makes oil prices next year more inclined to downside risks.

Taking into account the current epidemic situation, whether OPEC will respond is the focus of market attention. In the second half of this year, OPEC's production increase was not as expected. In addition to the demand for high oil prices and the possibility of Iran's return to the market, the uncertainty of the epidemic is also one of the main reasons. We believe that the current variants of the epidemic will allow OPEC to further review its own production increase plan, and we do not rule out reducing the scale of production increase or even reducing production again in the future. Therefore, we believe that it is difficult for oil prices to repeat the black swan market in the second quarter of last year, and more likely to fluctuate within a relatively reasonable range.

Strategy: Neutrally bearish, go long of diesel crack spread (Gasoil-Brent


1. Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

2. The impact of the variant virus is less than expected.

Copper: The epidemic hits again, and copper prices are also weakening.

Spot situation:

According to SMM, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic copper in the week of November 26 was at RMB 71,570/ton and RMB 72,570/ton. Last week showed a trend of first rising and then falling. The premium and discount offer hovered from 225 yuan/ton to 1,175 yuan/ton, showing a continued downward trend.


On the macro level, the epidemic has returned, and the epidemic in some European countries is severe. At present, Austria has implemented a nationwide blockade, and Germany has accumulated more than 100,000 deaths. It has almost implemented a nationwide blockade following Austria's footsteps. On November 25, the South African National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NICD) issued a statement stating that South Africa has detected a new variant of the new coronavirus strain called B.1.1.529. The UK called the newly discovered variant strain "the worst so far." The number of mutations is twice that of the current Delta variant strain, which can evade the immune response of the human body, and the existing new crown vaccine may be ineffective against it. At present, the United Kingdom has planned to include 6 African countries on the travel red list. The impact of the epidemic is gradually fermenting, and the decline in crude oil today is also partly due to this. The minutes of the Fed meeting this week signaled a willingness to speed up Taper and even raise interest rates ahead of schedule in order to suppress high inflation. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States announced before the minutes of the meeting dropped unexpectedly last week, hitting a single-week low since 1969. The PCE price index, an inflation indicator favored by the Fed, hit the highest year-on-year growth rate in 31 years in October. Inflation is currently high, and unemployment data has delivered good news for the job market. The market’s expectations for the Fed’s hawkish tendency to raise interest rates ahead of schedule are unabated. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission announced a symposium to study a long-term mechanism to prevent coal prices from rising and falling behind. The black products fell across the board on Thursday night, dragging down the non-ferrous sector. On Friday, again dragged down by the epidemic, thermal coal fell to a limit in the afternoon, and the non-ferrous sector fell significantly.

On the whole, the impact of the decline in the black series on copper prices currently appears to be a short-term emotional shock, and the impact of the epidemic has now become a major factor. The decline in premiums and discounts and the convergence of spreads seem to have eased the tightness of the spot market, but the current inventory is still low. At the same time, there is a certain demand support for enterprises to rush to replenish goods at the end of the year. Considering that the epidemic will not only change demand expectations, it will also have an impact on the current supply chain. Therefore, we should continue to observe changes in inventory and the impact of the epidemic. If the low inventory status is maintained and the epidemic does not undergo further fermentation, it is judged that the price will remain volatile. If the impact of the epidemic appears, there may be a risk of breaking the price in the short term.


1. Unilateral: Neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Accumulated inventory turning point

2. Monetary policy orientation

3. Energy crisis risk

PTA: The sharp drop in crude oil dragged down the cost of PTA, and polyester plants concentrated on reducing production.

Last Friday compared with this Friday, TA2201 closed at 4796 yuan/ton, compared with -146 yuan/ton the previous week. In terms of spot, PTA is 4736 yuan/ton, which is -136 yuan/ton compared to last week; TA basis is -60 yuan/ton, which is +10 yuan/ton compared to last week; PTA processing fee is 557 yuan/ton, which is +87 yuan/ton compared to last week. Tons; PX 866 USD/ton, compared with last week -47 USD/ton; PX processing fee is 146 USD/ton, compared with last week -9 USD/ton.

In terms of PX supply, this week’s CCF’s PX China operating rate was 78.1% (+8.8%), and PX Asia’s operating rate was 75.9% (+4.8%). Zhejiang Petrochemical PX continues to increase the load, the total operating rate of Zhejiang Petrochemical rose to 85% to 90%, and the second 2.5 million tons production line of the second phase is scheduled to start next week. Asia PX has entered a period of continuous and rapid accumulation of inventory, but PX processing fees have been compressed to a low level on the left.

In terms of PTA supply, CCF's PTA operating rate was 82.8% (+1.6%) this week, which is still high. Shenghong recovered 1.5 million tons and Fuhaichuang recovered to 90%. The current PTA processing fee is higher than 550, but the compression space below is limited. In December, there are expectations for the maintenance of 2.5 million tons of Hengli and 2.25 million tons of Yisheng Dahua, focusing on the degree of implementation.

On the whole, crude oil fell sharply on November 26, dragging down the PTA cost-type decline. PX Zhejiang Petrochemical has added 2.5 million tons of new production capacity and put into production. PX has entered a cycle of continuous and rapid accumulation of inventory, and PX is expected to continue to run at the bottom. This week, the PTA processing fee was higher than 550, and the polyester factory was expected to reduce production and reduce the load. In December, the balance sheet changed from a small destocking to a continuous accumulation expectation. However, the space for further compression of PTA processing fees is also limited. If processing fees are low or attract loss-making overhauls to rebalance.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of full implementation of PTA maintenance, December will end the inventory accumulation cycle and enter a small destocking phase. Pay attention to the implementation of follow-up PTA enterprise maintenance.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Crude oil dragged down PTA prices; PX Zhejiang Petrochemical’s new production capacity suppressed processing fees; PTA processing fees were overestimated in the short-term and there was a correction demand.

(2) Intertemporal: In December, the accumulation of inventory was expected again, and the 1-5 spread reverse strategy ended.

Risks: Crude oil price fluctuations; Implementation progress of PTA factory maintenance under the background of low processing fees; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.



























铜:疫情再度来袭 铜价同样呈现走弱







1. 单边:中性 2. 跨市:暂缓 3. 跨期:暂缓;4. 期权:暂缓


1. 累库拐点 货币政策导向 能源危机风险













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