Iron Ore: Vale lowered its iron ore output expectations, and iron ore prices fluctuated widely.
Viewpoint and logic:
Yesterday, iron ore futures fluctuated widely throughout the day. The 01 contract closed at 614.5 yuan/ton, up 2.44% from the closing price of the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore at Qingdao Port dropped 8-10 yuan/ton throughout the day. The market sentiment was poor and transactions were insipid. PB fines is 660 yuan/ton, SSF is 425 yuan/ton, and Yangdi fines is 500 yuan/ton.
On the news, Vale expects this year's iron ore output to be 315 million to 320 million tons, compared with previous expectations of 315 million to 335 million tons. At the same time, Vale is expected to produce 320 million to 335 million tons next year, which is lower than the 346 million tons commonly expected by analysts.
On the whole, affected by the decline in steel consumption, iron elements will face a long-term surplus. Port inventories continue to be accumulated, 45 ports’ total inventory has accumulated to 154,241,700 tons. In the short term, driven by the high profits of steel mills, short-term stock replenishment activities have driven iron ore to a moderate rebound. However, under the background that steel consumption is unlikely to reverse sharply, supply will continue to increase in the long run. However, demand will continue to decrease, iron ore is still suppressed by high inventories, and the price trend is relatively bearish. In the future, we will continue to focus on the outbreak of the epidemic and the resumption of production by downstream steel mills.
Unilateral: Short-term rebound
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks:
1. The state stimulates the economy.
2. The introduction of friendly real estate policy.
3. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.
Rubber: Port inventories continued to decline, and the decline has slowed down.
On November 30, the most-active RU contract closed at 14,935 (-500) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13,225 (-225) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -835 yuan/ton (+350); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 76407 (-843) lots, the short position was 111661 (+131) lots, and the net short position was 35254 (+974) lots.
On November 30, the most-active NR contract closed at 11800 (-415) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,815 (-30) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,815 (-30) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,790 (-20) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -381 (+273) yuan/ton.
As of November 26: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 188,350 (+8827) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 140,470 (+12,300) tons.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 55.2 (0), cup lump 48.7 (+0.05), latex 60 (-0.5), RSS3 61.55 (+0.45).
As of November 25, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 65.96% (+0.48%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 62.25% (+0.99%).
Opinion: Under the drag of the market sentiment, the price of rubber also dropped significantly yesterday. The market still has concerns about mutated viruses, and the cautious state of various countries may have an impact on the demand side of rubber in the short term. As of last week, domestic port inventories continued to decline, but the decline slowed. This is mainly due to the slowdown in the demand for raw materials after the centralized downstream procurement in the early stage. The issue of postponed sailing schedule has not been resolved, and the number of arrivals in the port is still limited. The fundamentals of rubber itself have not changed much, and the logic of the supply side is still there, but the short-term market focus is still about the risk of the mutant virus.
1. Epidemic recurring
2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen
3. Weak demand
Crude oil: Modena expects the existing vaccines to be difficult to deal with Omi Keron.
Yesterday, the CEO of vaccine company Modena said that it is expected that existing vaccines will be far less effective in dealing with Omi Keron than in dealing with early new coronavirus strains. He warned that it would take several months for pharmaceutical companies to mass-produce new vaccines against the strain. Modena's statement on the effectiveness of the vaccine has increased market concerns about the new virus. If the vaccine needs to be re-made, it means that the anti-epidemic work made by countries in the early stage needs to be re-implemented. Moreover, herd immunity cannot resist new viruses, which will significantly increase the possibility of countries tightening epidemic prevention measures. Although it said that more data is needed to test how much the effectiveness of the vaccine has actually fallen, its statement will undoubtedly make the market even more pessimistic. In addition, Omi Keron was also found in Japan, which means that the new virus has begun to spread globally.
Strategy: Neutrally bearish, go long of diesel crack spread
1. Geopolitical risk in the Middle East
2. The impact of the variant virus is less than expected.
Copper: Market panic has revived, and copper prices have declined significantly.
On the macro side, on the closing day in November, the market suffered a double blow. The CEO of Moderna said that the vaccine's effect on Omi Keron mutant strains will be far less effective than before, and the market has renewed concerns about Omi Keron. Most base metals such as international crude oil and LME copper fell. Crude oil fell by about 8% in intraday trading, reaching its lowest point since late August. Fed Chairman Powell released hawkish remarks at the hearing, saying that the increased risk of inflation and high inflation may not be temporary. This implies that the Fed may consider speeding up the removal of easing by Taper and others in response to high inflation risks, opening the door for interest rate hikes to begin in the first half of next year. Yellen urged in the congressional hearing to raise or suspend the federal debt ceiling as soon as possible, and there is no guarantee that the US government will not default after December 15. A severe economic recession may follow. Under the threat of new virus variants, she urged everyone to get the new crown vaccine, and said that stable currencies need to be "appropriate and adequate" supervision. In addition, good news came out of the supply chain. By tracking the AIS location data of approximately 6,000 container ships, the congestion in the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach has been significantly improved, and the queue of ships in line has been reduced by 25%. At the same time, the reduction of old cargo accumulated in the port also accelerates the unloading speed of port ships. Since the announcement of the charges, containers have accelerated their departure from the port, and the amount of old cargo piled up in the port has been reduced by 33%.
From a fundamental point of view, according to SMM, the final value of the PMI composite index of the copper downstream industry in November was 51.11, an increase of 0.74 percentage points from the previous month. In November, stimulated by the end of wide-scale staggered electricity consumption across the country, coupled with the country's slight relaxation of the real estate market, all industries benefited slightly and the comprehensive PMI increased. In terms of breakdown, the production index rose by 1.07 percentage points to 51.59, and the new order index rose by 0.8 percentage points to 50.97. The abolition of power restrictions and the fact that raw material prices remained low for most of November have stimulated many companies to actively produce to catch up with orders. In terms of scrap copper, the spread between refined copper and scrap copper fell by 135 yuan/ton to 1403.17 yuan/ton from the previous day, falling below a reasonable range. According to foreign media reports, the European Union intends to ban the export of waste to third-party countries that are not the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Due to China’s express ban on the import of solid waste, which is not consistent with the European Union’s waste management standards, the two parties have not reached a permit. This will affect the direct export of EU scrap metal to China. According to SMM's expectation, in the short term, Chinese buyers and EU suppliers will be on the sidelines of policy uncertainty, and scrap metal trade will decrease. But overall, the EU's new policy on waste exports has little effect on China's imports of recycled copper raw materials. According to China's copper scrap import data, copper scrap directly from Europe accounts for about 10-15% of the total. In terms of spot, market trading was insipid towards the end of the month, Shanghai copper premiums and discounts rose slightly, and South China copper premiums and discounts remained flat. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory decreased by 3,625 tons to 76,450 tons, the proportion of registered warrants rose to 86%, and the proportion of cancelled warrants fell to 14%. The SHFE copper warehouse receipt maintained 11786 tons. In terms of imports, LME's 0-3 premium was US$85/ton, imports were at a loss, and market transactions were insipid.
On the whole, market panic has revived, and copper prices have declined significantly. Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks.
1. Unilateral: Neutral
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.
PTA: Crude oil continued to drag down PTA; PTA processing fees narrowed.
1. The increase in the production load of Zhejiang Petrochemical's inventory equipment and the new production capacity have brought pressure to accumulate inventory.
(1) Zhejiang Petrochemical PX continues to increase its load. The total operating rate of Zhejiang Petrochemical has risen to 85% to 90%, and the second 2.5 million tons production line of the second phase is scheduled to start production next week. Asian PX has entered a period of continuous and rapid accumulation of inventory, but PX processing fees have been compressed to a low level on the left.
2. Expected maintenance of PTA factory
(1) Crude oil fell again on Tuesday, dragging down the PTA. (2) Shenghong's 2.5 million tons production line will be overhauled for 2 weeks. Future maintenance is expected to be concentrated. Yisheng Dahua 1# 2.25 million tons and Hengli 4# 2.2 million tons have maintenance plans in December. The PTA processing fee is compressed again against the background of polyester maintenance expectations.
3. Polyester companies have plans for maintenance in the future.
(1) As the polyester plant has a joint production reduction plan, it is expected that the polyester operating rate will fall below 83%-85% from December to January.
Balance sheet outlook: Under the expectation of concentrated production cuts in polyester factories and the full implementation of PTA plant overhauls, inventories were accumulated slightly or flattened in December, but the room for further compression of PTA processing fees is also limited. The current absolute price drive comes from crude oil price fluctuations.
(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Crude oil dragged down PTA; PX Zhejiang Petrochemical’s new production capacity suppressed processing fees; PTA processing fees were overestimated in the short term, so there may be a correction demand.
(2) Intertemporal: In December, the accumulation of inventory is expected again, and the 1-5 spread reverse strategy ended.
Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA plant maintenance progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.
宏观方面，11月收官日，市场遭遇双重打击，Moderna CEO称该司疫苗对奥密克戎变异毒株的效果将远不如前，市场对奥密克戎的担忧重燃， 国际原油和伦铜等多数基础金属均下跌，原油盘中跌8%左右，跌至8月下旬以来低谷。美联储主席鲍威尔在听证会释放鹰派言论，称通胀风险增加、高通胀可能不是暂时的，暗示联储可能考虑为应对高通胀风险而加快Taper等撤除宽松的行动速度，为明年上半年开始加息敞开大门。耶伦在国会听证中敦促尽快提高或暂停联邦债务上限，不能确保12月15日以后美国政府不会违约，随之而来可能出现严重的经济衰退。在新病毒变种威胁下，她敦促所有人接种新冠疫苗和加强针，并称稳定币需要得到“适当且充分”的监管。另外，供应链端传出利好，通过跟踪约6000艘集装箱船只的AIS位置数据，洛杉矶港和长滩港的拥堵程度显著改善，排队的船舶队列减少了25%。同时，堆积在港口的旧货物减少也加速港口船只的卸货速度。自宣布收费以来，集装箱加速离开港口，堆积在港口的旧货物减少了33%。
基本面来看，据SMM，11月铜下游行业PMI综合指数终值为51.11，环比上升0.74个百分点；11月受全国结束大范围错峰用电刺激，再加上国家对房地产市场的调控略有放松，各行各业均略有获益综合PMI有所上升。细分来看，生产指数上升1.07个百分点至51.59，新订单指数上升0.8个百分点至50.97，取消限电再加上11月多数时间原材料价格都是维持在低位，刺激不少企业积极生产追赶订单。废铜方面，精废价差较前日下降135元/吨至1403.17元/吨，降至合理区间下方。据外媒报道，欧盟拟禁止向非经合组织(OECD)的第三方国家出口废物，由于中国明令禁止进口固体废物，与欧盟废物管理的标准不统一，双方没有达成许可，这影响欧盟的废金属直接出口到中国。据SMM预期，短期内，中国采购商和欧盟的供应商对政策的不明朗会有所观望，废金属贸易会有所减少，但总体而言，欧盟关于废物出口的新政策对中国的再生铜原料进口影响不大。根据中国的废铜进口数据，直接来自欧洲的废铜约在总量的10-15%左右。现货方面，临近月末市场交投平淡，沪铜升贴水微升，华南铜升贴水持平。库存方面，LME铜库存减少3625吨至76450吨，注册仓单比例上升至86%，注销仓单比例下降至14%；SHFE铜仓单维持11786吨。进口方面， LME 0-3升水85美元/吨，进口亏损，市场成交平淡。
1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.疫情风险加剧