Iron Ore: Tangshan failed to resume production, and iron ore pulled back from high levels.

Viewpoint and logic:

Yesterday, this week's production, sales and inventory data was announced. The demand for rebar was 3.43 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons from last week; the output was 2.77 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from last week. This set of data shows the level that should be in the peak season. Affected by this, the black series market rebounded in the afternoon, and iron ore futures once approached their recent highs. Subsequently, it was reported in the market that some steel plants in Tangshan had implemented partial furnace shutdown, which subverted the previous expectation of resuming production. Affected by this news, iron ore futures experienced a sharp correction. At the close in the afternoon, the main iron ore futures 05 contract closed at 609 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore at Caofeidian Port dropped 4-23 yuan/ton yesterday. The current PB fines is 663 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous day; Carajás iron ore fines (SFCJ) is 870 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; SSF is 428 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of transactions, a total of 890,000 tons of iron ore mines in major ports nationwide were sold yesterday, a decrease of 20.9% from the previous month. A total of 570,000 tons of forward spot transactions (4 lots) were traded, a decrease of 37% from the previous month.

On the whole, driven by the high profits of steel mills, short-term stock replenishment activities have driven iron ore to a moderate rebound. In the long run, under the background that steel consumption is unlikely to reverse sharply, the supply will maintain an increase. However, demand will continue to decrease, iron ore is still suppressed by high inventories, and the price trend is relatively bearish. In the future, we will continue to focus on the outbreak of the epidemic and the resumption of production by downstream steel mills.

Strategies:

Unilateral: Neutral in the short-term, and tend to be bearish in the medium-term

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The state stimulates the economy.

2. The introduction of friendly real estate policy.

3. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: Raw material prices presented a mix of gains and losses.

On December 2, the most-active RU contract closed at 14745 (-475) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13,875 (-75) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -870 yuan/ton (+400); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 85344 (-2974) lots, the short position was 120162 (+261) lots, and the net short position was 34818 (+3235) lots.

On December 2, the most-active NR contract closed at 11615 (-365) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,795 (+25) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,790 (-25) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,760 (-30) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -400 (+178) yuan/ton.

As of November 26: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 188,350 (+8827) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 140,470 (+12,300) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 55.55 (0), cup lump 48.75 (+0.05), latex 59.5 (-0.5), RSS3 60.62 (-0.73).

As of November 25, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 65.96% (+0.48%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 62.25% (+0.99%).

Opinion: The opening and operation of old railways in the middle of this week has made the market expect that the import progress of domestic alternative indicators will accelerate, which will bring about an increase in short-term domestic supply rebound expectations. At the same time, the uncertainty of the mutant virus in South Africa has brought about an increase in demand-side concerns, and jointly promoted the fall of rubber prices this week. However, the current situation of tight domestic supply of rubber has not been effectively improved, and it is expected that the room for decline is limited. Wait for the market to stabilize.

Strategy: Neutral

Risks:

1. Epidemic recurring

2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen

3. Weak demand

Crude oil: OPEC maintains its production increase, but it should reserve measures to deal with the virus.

Last night, the OPEC Ministerial Meeting decided to maintain the 400,000 barrels per day production increase plan in January, but it also left a "back door" to deal with the virus, that is, if the market changes, the production policy can be temporarily adjusted. After OPEC announced the results of the meeting, oil prices plunged by 5%, but then recovered the decline because the market noticed that OPEC still prepared countermeasures against Omi Keron. We believe that the reason why OPEC did not choose to suspend production increases is that Omi Keron still lacks key information. Combining existing information, OPEC cannot make a reasonable response, and can only wait for the information to become clearer before responding. Similar to the second quarter of last year, OPEC's production policy will still play a role in underpinning oil prices, which is also the main reason why oil prices regained their downward trend yesterday. From the current point of view, the crude oil market will turn into an oversupply in the first quarter of next year. However, due to the impact of the virus, the current demand decline is highly uncertain. Some countries have begun new social isolation measures, and the crude oil market will still face high volatility in the short term.

Strategy: Neutrally bearish, go long of diesel crack spread

Risk:

1. Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

2. The impact of the variant virus is less than expected.

Copper: The epidemic continues to ferment, and the fluctuation of copper prices has intensified.

View:

From a macro perspective, the second and third cases of Omi Keron variant infection in the United States were confirmed. Biden said that the US government's plan to combat COVID-19 in the winter will not include a new lockdown plan. In terms of symptoms, the symptoms of the Omi Keron mutant strain will disappear within a few days. But so far, it is not clear how it will develop in people who have not been vaccinated, and the threat of the epidemic remains to be seen. The OPEC+ meeting decided to continue to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in January as originally planned, but did not suspend the increase as predicted by previous news. International crude oil futures and U.S. oil traded in intraday declines, but U.S. stocks turned up in intraday trading, out of the trough since late August. Gold fell significantly and fell to its lowest point since early October. There are comments that most traders believe that the Omi Keron virus will not cause catastrophic damage to the global economy, and they prefer to hedge in the stock market. With regard to the US debt issue, Democrats in the House of Representatives reached a spending agreement to provide the government with funds until February 18. The latest development, the House of Representatives of the United States Congress has voted to approve the extension of short-term government financing to February, which will be submitted to the Senate for a vote. In terms of data, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rebounded slightly from a historical low in the week of November 27, which was better than market expectations. At the same time, the number of continuous applications for unemployment benefits fell below 2 million for the first time since the epidemic. Yellen said yesterday that the Fed cannot influence supply factors and that the strong US economy may prompt interest rate hikes, which is beneficial to the world and emerging markets as a whole. She emphasized that interest rate hikes are determined by the Federal Reserve.

From a fundamental point of view, according to SMM surveys, major ports in northern China are still affected to varying degrees under the interference of the epidemic. Among them, Alashankou Port and Erlianhaote Port were more affected. Although the Alashankou port has not closed, the speed of customs clearance has slowed significantly due to the epidemic prevention and control, and a large number of copper concentrates and electrolytic copper are stranded at the port. The Erlianhaote port has completely suspended the import and access of non-container cargo from November 28, and the specific recovery time has not yet been determined. Ganqimaodu Port was closed for a week at the end of November. Although customs clearance is expected to resume on December 3, it is expected that the speed of customs clearance and shipment will hardly pick up significantly in the short term. Generally speaking, since the fourth quarter of this year, the import volume of northern China ports has been significantly affected by the interference of epidemic prevention and control. China's imports from Kazakhstan in October decreased by 87.52% year-on-year to only 13,200 physical tons. The northern smelter was forced to turn its attention to the sea floating spot, which caused the copper concentrate import processing fee TC to show a slight decline in the fourth quarter. On the consumption side, although market prices have fallen, the back structure supports them, which encourages the sentiment of supporting price by holders. Shanghai copper premiums and discounts remained flat, Guangdong inventories continued to decline, and are now approaching the lowest level in history. South China copper premiums and discounts rose by 195 yuan/ton. In terms of copper scrap, the spread between refined copper and copper scrap dropped by 138 yuan/ton to 1,186.89 yuan/ton from the previous day, falling below a reasonable range. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons to 78,225 tons, the proportion of registered warrants rose to 89%, and the proportion of cancelled warrants fell to 11%. SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 649 tons to 10,488 tons.

On the whole, the epidemic continues to ferment, and the volatility of copper prices has intensified.

Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: The performance of terminal orders was still insipid.

1. Zhejiang Petrochemical's inventory equipment increased production load and newly increased production capacity began to be put into production.

(1) Zhejiang Petrochemical PX continues to increase production load. The total operating rate of Zhejiang Petrochemical has risen to 85% to 90%, and the production load of the second phase of the second production line of 2.5 million tons will be gradually increased. Asia PX has entered a cycle of continuous and rapid accumulation of inventory. In the future, after the second phase 2#2.5 million tons production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company increases the production load, another 2 million tons production line will experience an overhaul. The PX processing fee has been compressed to a low level on the left before, and the price is currently being adjusted at the bottom.

2. Expected maintenance of PTA factory

(1) Crude oil consolidated at the bottom, driving PTA to oscillate in the bottom range. (2) After the PTA processing fee was compressed to a low level on Tuesday, it rebounded at the bottom. (3) Shenghong's 2.5 million tons production line will be overhauled for 2 weeks. Future maintenance is expected to be concentrated. Yisheng Dahua 1# 2.25 million tons and Hengli 4# 2.2 million tons have maintenance plans in December.

3. The weaving terminal orders are still insipid.

(1) Terminal orders are still insufficient; the willingness to stock filaments is currently weak, and the inventory is mainly digested

(2) As the polyester plant has a joint production reduction plan, it is expected that the polyester operating rate will fall below 83%-85% from December to January.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the expectation of concentrated production cuts in polyester factories and the full implementation of PTA plant overhauls, inventories were accumulated slightly or flattened in December, but the room for further compression of PTA processing fees is also limited. The current absolute price drive comes from crude oil price fluctuations.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude; The PTA processing fee rebounded after being compressed to a low level, and the space below was limited. PX Zhejiang Petrochemical's new production capacity suppresses processing fees to a low level.

(2) Intertemporal: In December, the accumulation of inventory is expected again, and the 1-5 spread reverse strategy ended.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA plant maintenance progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿石：唐山复产落空，铁矿石冲高回落

观点与逻辑：

昨日，钢联公布了本周的产销存数据，螺纹表需343万吨，较上周增加24万吨，产量277万吨，较上周增加5万吨，该组数据表现了旺季该有的水平，受此影响，午后开盘黑色全面反弹，铁矿石期货一度逼近近日高点。随后，市场传出唐山部分钢厂实施部分闷炉停产，颠覆了之前复产的预期，受此消息影响，铁矿石期货出现大幅回调。至午后收盘，铁矿石期货主力05合约收于609元/吨，较上一交易日下跌25元/吨；现货方面，昨日曹妃甸港进口铁矿全天价格下跌4-23元/吨。市场交投情绪较好，成交尚可。现PB粉663元/吨，较前日下跌14元/吨，卡粉870元/吨，较前日下跌20元/吨，超特粉428元/吨，较前日下跌4元/吨。成交方面，昨日全国主港铁矿累计成交89万吨，环比下降20.9%；远期现货累计成交57万吨（4笔），环比下降37%。

整体来看，在钢厂高利润的驱动下，短期有补库行为，带动铁矿适度反弹。长期来看，在钢材消费难有大幅反转的背景下，供给维持增量，需求减少，叠加压产趋严，铁矿石仍受高库存压制，价格趋势偏空。后市继续重点关注疫情爆发情况及下游钢厂限、复产情况。

策略：

单边：短期中性，中期看空

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：国家对经济刺激，以及友好地产政策的出台，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：原料价格涨跌互现

2号，RU主力收盘14745（-475）元/吨，混合胶报价13875元/吨（-75），主力合约基差-870元/吨（+400）；前二十主力多头持仓85344（-2974），空头持仓120162（+261），净空持仓34818（+3235）。

2号，NR主力收盘价11615（-365）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1795（+25）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1790美元/吨（-25），印尼标胶1760（-30）美元/吨。主力合约基差-400（+178）元/吨。

截至11月26日：交易所总库存188350（+8827），交易所仓单140470（+12300）。

原料：生胶片55.55（0），杯胶48.75（+0.05），胶水59.5（-0.5），烟片60.62（-0.73）。

截止11月25日，国内全钢胎开工率为65.96%（+0.48%），国内半钢胎开工率为62.25%(+0.99%）。

观点：本周中老铁路的开通运营使得市场预期国内替代指标的进口进度将加快，带来短期国内供应回升预期增加，同时南非变异病毒的不确定性带来需求端担忧增加，共同推动本周橡胶价格的回落，但橡胶当前国内供应偏紧的格局仍未有效改善，预计回落空间有限。等待市场企稳。

策略：中性

风险：疫情反复，期现价差持续拉大，需求示弱等。

原油：欧佩克维持增产，但为应对病毒留下后手

昨晚欧佩克部长会议决定1月份维持40万桶/日的增产计划不变，但同时也为应对病毒留下一道“后门”，即如果市场发生变化，可以临时调整产量政策。在欧佩克公布会议结果之后，油价一度暴跌5%，但随后收复跌幅，因为市场注意到了欧佩克仍对奥密克戎留下后手，我们认为欧佩克之所以没有选择暂停增产，原因是奥密克戎关键信息仍旧缺乏，结合现有信息欧佩克无法做出合理应对，只能等待信息更为明确后在做出应对，类似去年二季度，欧佩克产量政策仍旧会对油价起到托底作用，这也是昨日油价收复跌势的主要原因。而就目前来看，明年一季度原油市场将转为供应过剩，但由于病毒影响，目前需求回落幅度高度不确定，部分国家已经开始新的社交隔离措施，原油市场短期内仍将面临较高的波动。

策略：中性偏空，做多柴油裂解价差

风险：中东地缘政治风险，变种病毒影响不及预期

铜：疫情持续发酵，铜价震荡加剧

观点：

宏观方面，美国第二例、第三类奥密克戎变异毒株感染者确诊，拜登表示，美国政府冬季抗击新冠肺炎的计划中不会包括新的封锁计划。从症状来看，奥密克戎变异毒株的症状在几天内就会消失，不过目前为止，尚不清楚它在未接种疫苗的人身上会如何发展，疫情威胁仍待观察。OPEC+会议决定按原计划1月继续增产40万桶/日，并未如此前消息所猜测的暂停增产，国际原油期货及美油盘中跌幅扩大，但美股盘中转涨，走出8月下旬以来低谷。黄金明显回落，跌至10月上旬以来最低谷。有评论认为大多数交易者认为奥密克戎病毒不会给全球经济造成灾难性重创，他们更青睐在股市避险。美国债务问题方面，众议院民主党人达成了一项支出协议，为政府提供资金至2月18日。最新进展，美国国会众议院已投票批准延长短期性政府融资至2月份，将递交给参议院表决。数据方面，美国11月27日当周初请失业金人数从历史低点小幅反弹，好于市场预期，同时持续申请失业救济人数自疫情以来首次降至200万人以下。耶伦昨日表示，美联储无法影响供应因素，美国经济强劲，可能会促使加息，这对世界和新兴市场总体来说是有利的。她强调加息由美联储决定。

基本面来看，据SMM调研了解，中国北方各重要口岸在疫情干扰下依旧不同程度受到影响。其中阿拉山口口岸和二连浩特口岸受到影响较大，阿拉山口口岸虽然并未关闭口岸，但是疫情防控下清关速度明显放缓，大量铜精矿以及电解铜滞留口岸；二连浩特口岸则是从11月28号起彻底暂停进口及接入非集装箱货物，具体恢复时间暂未确定；甘其毛都口岸在11月底关闭口岸一周，虽然预计从12月3日起恢复清关，但预计短期内清关发货速度难见明显回暖。总体看，今年四季度以来，受到防控疫情干扰下中国北方口岸进口量受到明显影响，中国10月从哈萨克斯坦进口量同比降低87.52%至仅剩1.32万实物吨，北方冶炼厂被迫将目光转向海飘现货，让铜精矿进口加工费TC在四季度呈现小幅回落之势。消费方面，盘面虽有所下跌，但back结构支撑，助长持货商挺价情绪，沪铜升贴水持平，广东库存持续下降，目前已经迫近历史最低位，华南铜升贴水上升195元/吨。废铜方面，精废价差较前日下降138元/吨至1186.89元/吨，降至合理区间下方。库存方面，LME铜库存减少400吨至78225吨，注册仓单比例上升至89%，注销仓单比例下降至11%；SHFE铜仓单减少649吨至10488吨。进口方面，随着外盘0-3升贴水回落至48美元/吨，近月比价继续转好，进口窗口再次打开。

整体看来，疫情持续发酵，铜价震荡加剧，单边上维持宽幅震荡并存在下行风险的判断。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.疫情风险加剧

PTA：终端订单表现仍一般

一、浙石化存量装置提负及新增产能投产

（1）浙石化PX继续提负，浙石化总开工率上升至85%至90%，且二期第二条250万吨投产后逐步提负，亚洲PX进入持续快速累库周期。后续浙石化二期2#250万吨提负后，另一条200万吨线有检修计划。前期PX加工费已左侧压缩至低位，底部盘整。

二、PTA工厂检修预期

（1）原油底部盘整，带动PTA底部区间震荡。（2）PTA加工费周二压缩至低位后，底部反弹。（3）检修情况：盛虹250万吨检修2周。逸盛大化1#225万吨（可能不兑现）、恒力4#220万吨12月有检修计划

三、织造终端订单仍一般

（1）终端订单仍不足，对长丝备货意愿偏淡，消化库存为主。（2）由于聚酯工厂有联合减产计划，预期12-1月聚酯开工率降至83%到85%附近。

平衡表展望：聚酯工厂集中减产降负预期下，PTA工厂检修预期全兑现背景下，12月微幅累库或库存走平。但PTA加工费再压缩空间亦有限，若加工费低位或吸引亏损性检修以再平衡。目前绝对价格驱动来源于原油价格波动。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望，原油有所探底，PTA加工费压缩至低位后反弹，下方空间有限，PX浙石化新增产能压制加工费亦已到低位。（2）跨期套利：12月再度累库预期，1-5价差反套。

风险：原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂检修兑现进度，浙石化PX新装置提负进度，聚酯工厂联合减产进度。