Iron Ore: Tangshan failed to resume production, and iron ore pulled back from high levels.
Viewpoint and logic:
Yesterday, this week's production, sales and inventory data was announced. The demand for rebar was 3.43 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons from last week; the output was 2.77 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from last week. This set of data shows the level that should be in the peak season. Affected by this, the black series market rebounded in the afternoon, and iron ore futures once approached their recent highs. Subsequently, it was reported in the market that some steel plants in Tangshan had implemented partial furnace shutdown, which subverted the previous expectation of resuming production. Affected by this news, iron ore futures experienced a sharp correction. At the close in the afternoon, the main iron ore futures 05 contract closed at 609 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore at Caofeidian Port dropped 4-23 yuan/ton yesterday. The current PB fines is 663 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous day; Carajás iron ore fines (SFCJ) is 870 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; SSF is 428 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of transactions, a total of 890,000 tons of iron ore mines in major ports nationwide were sold yesterday, a decrease of 20.9% from the previous month. A total of 570,000 tons of forward spot transactions (4 lots) were traded, a decrease of 37% from the previous month.
On the whole, driven by the high profits of steel mills, short-term stock replenishment activities have driven iron ore to a moderate rebound. In the long run, under the background that steel consumption is unlikely to reverse sharply, the supply will maintain an increase. However, demand will continue to decrease, iron ore is still suppressed by high inventories, and the price trend is relatively bearish. In the future, we will continue to focus on the outbreak of the epidemic and the resumption of production by downstream steel mills.
Unilateral: Neutral in the short-term, and tend to be bearish in the medium-term
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks:
1. The state stimulates the economy.
2. The introduction of friendly real estate policy.
3. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.
Rubber: Raw material prices presented a mix of gains and losses.
On December 2, the most-active RU contract closed at 14745 (-475) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13,875 (-75) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -870 yuan/ton (+400); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 85344 (-2974) lots, the short position was 120162 (+261) lots, and the net short position was 34818 (+3235) lots.
On December 2, the most-active NR contract closed at 11615 (-365) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,795 (+25) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,790 (-25) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,760 (-30) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -400 (+178) yuan/ton.
As of November 26: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 188,350 (+8827) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 140,470 (+12,300) tons.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 55.55 (0), cup lump 48.75 (+0.05), latex 59.5 (-0.5), RSS3 60.62 (-0.73).
As of November 25, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 65.96% (+0.48%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 62.25% (+0.99%).
Opinion: The opening and operation of old railways in the middle of this week has made the market expect that the import progress of domestic alternative indicators will accelerate, which will bring about an increase in short-term domestic supply rebound expectations. At the same time, the uncertainty of the mutant virus in South Africa has brought about an increase in demand-side concerns, and jointly promoted the fall of rubber prices this week. However, the current situation of tight domestic supply of rubber has not been effectively improved, and it is expected that the room for decline is limited. Wait for the market to stabilize.
1. Epidemic recurring
2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen
3. Weak demand
Crude oil: OPEC maintains its production increase, but it should reserve measures to deal with the virus.
Last night, the OPEC Ministerial Meeting decided to maintain the 400,000 barrels per day production increase plan in January, but it also left a "back door" to deal with the virus, that is, if the market changes, the production policy can be temporarily adjusted. After OPEC announced the results of the meeting, oil prices plunged by 5%, but then recovered the decline because the market noticed that OPEC still prepared countermeasures against Omi Keron. We believe that the reason why OPEC did not choose to suspend production increases is that Omi Keron still lacks key information. Combining existing information, OPEC cannot make a reasonable response, and can only wait for the information to become clearer before responding. Similar to the second quarter of last year, OPEC's production policy will still play a role in underpinning oil prices, which is also the main reason why oil prices regained their downward trend yesterday. From the current point of view, the crude oil market will turn into an oversupply in the first quarter of next year. However, due to the impact of the virus, the current demand decline is highly uncertain. Some countries have begun new social isolation measures, and the crude oil market will still face high volatility in the short term.
Strategy: Neutrally bearish, go long of diesel crack spread
1. Geopolitical risk in the Middle East
2. The impact of the variant virus is less than expected.
Copper: The epidemic continues to ferment, and the fluctuation of copper prices has intensified.
From a macro perspective, the second and third cases of Omi Keron variant infection in the United States were confirmed. Biden said that the US government's plan to combat COVID-19 in the winter will not include a new lockdown plan. In terms of symptoms, the symptoms of the Omi Keron mutant strain will disappear within a few days. But so far, it is not clear how it will develop in people who have not been vaccinated, and the threat of the epidemic remains to be seen. The OPEC+ meeting decided to continue to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in January as originally planned, but did not suspend the increase as predicted by previous news. International crude oil futures and U.S. oil traded in intraday declines, but U.S. stocks turned up in intraday trading, out of the trough since late August. Gold fell significantly and fell to its lowest point since early October. There are comments that most traders believe that the Omi Keron virus will not cause catastrophic damage to the global economy, and they prefer to hedge in the stock market. With regard to the US debt issue, Democrats in the House of Representatives reached a spending agreement to provide the government with funds until February 18. The latest development, the House of Representatives of the United States Congress has voted to approve the extension of short-term government financing to February, which will be submitted to the Senate for a vote. In terms of data, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rebounded slightly from a historical low in the week of November 27, which was better than market expectations. At the same time, the number of continuous applications for unemployment benefits fell below 2 million for the first time since the epidemic. Yellen said yesterday that the Fed cannot influence supply factors and that the strong US economy may prompt interest rate hikes, which is beneficial to the world and emerging markets as a whole. She emphasized that interest rate hikes are determined by the Federal Reserve.
From a fundamental point of view, according to SMM surveys, major ports in northern China are still affected to varying degrees under the interference of the epidemic. Among them, Alashankou Port and Erlianhaote Port were more affected. Although the Alashankou port has not closed, the speed of customs clearance has slowed significantly due to the epidemic prevention and control, and a large number of copper concentrates and electrolytic copper are stranded at the port. The Erlianhaote port has completely suspended the import and access of non-container cargo from November 28, and the specific recovery time has not yet been determined. Ganqimaodu Port was closed for a week at the end of November. Although customs clearance is expected to resume on December 3, it is expected that the speed of customs clearance and shipment will hardly pick up significantly in the short term. Generally speaking, since the fourth quarter of this year, the import volume of northern China ports has been significantly affected by the interference of epidemic prevention and control. China's imports from Kazakhstan in October decreased by 87.52% year-on-year to only 13,200 physical tons. The northern smelter was forced to turn its attention to the sea floating spot, which caused the copper concentrate import processing fee TC to show a slight decline in the fourth quarter. On the consumption side, although market prices have fallen, the back structure supports them, which encourages the sentiment of supporting price by holders. Shanghai copper premiums and discounts remained flat, Guangdong inventories continued to decline, and are now approaching the lowest level in history. South China copper premiums and discounts rose by 195 yuan/ton. In terms of copper scrap, the spread between refined copper and copper scrap dropped by 138 yuan/ton to 1,186.89 yuan/ton from the previous day, falling below a reasonable range. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons to 78,225 tons, the proportion of registered warrants rose to 89%, and the proportion of cancelled warrants fell to 11%. SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 649 tons to 10,488 tons.
On the whole, the epidemic continues to ferment, and the volatility of copper prices has intensified.
Unilaterally, we maintain the judgment that the market will fluctuate widely and there are downside risks.
1. Unilateral: Neutral
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.
PTA: The performance of terminal orders was still insipid.
1. Zhejiang Petrochemical's inventory equipment increased production load and newly increased production capacity began to be put into production.
(1) Zhejiang Petrochemical PX continues to increase production load. The total operating rate of Zhejiang Petrochemical has risen to 85% to 90%, and the production load of the second phase of the second production line of 2.5 million tons will be gradually increased. Asia PX has entered a cycle of continuous and rapid accumulation of inventory. In the future, after the second phase 2#2.5 million tons production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company increases the production load, another 2 million tons production line will experience an overhaul. The PX processing fee has been compressed to a low level on the left before, and the price is currently being adjusted at the bottom.
2. Expected maintenance of PTA factory
(1) Crude oil consolidated at the bottom, driving PTA to oscillate in the bottom range. (2) After the PTA processing fee was compressed to a low level on Tuesday, it rebounded at the bottom. (3) Shenghong's 2.5 million tons production line will be overhauled for 2 weeks. Future maintenance is expected to be concentrated. Yisheng Dahua 1# 2.25 million tons and Hengli 4# 2.2 million tons have maintenance plans in December.
3. The weaving terminal orders are still insipid.
(1) Terminal orders are still insufficient; the willingness to stock filaments is currently weak, and the inventory is mainly digested
(2) As the polyester plant has a joint production reduction plan, it is expected that the polyester operating rate will fall below 83%-85% from December to January.
Balance sheet outlook: Under the expectation of concentrated production cuts in polyester factories and the full implementation of PTA plant overhauls, inventories were accumulated slightly or flattened in December, but the room for further compression of PTA processing fees is also limited. The current absolute price drive comes from crude oil price fluctuations.
(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude; The PTA processing fee rebounded after being compressed to a low level, and the space below was limited. PX Zhejiang Petrochemical's new production capacity suppresses processing fees to a low level.
(2) Intertemporal: In December, the accumulation of inventory is expected again, and the 1-5 spread reverse strategy ended.
Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA plant maintenance progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.
1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
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