Iron Ore: Supply shrinks, and steel consumption will become the baton for the trend in 2022.

In 2021, domestic iron ore futures and spot prices experienced sharp fluctuations. In the first half of the year, under the strong domestic and overseas demand, the iron futures in May rose to 1,358 yuan/ton, a record high in the eight years since listing. The Platts spot price simultaneously hit a record high of 233.1 US dollars/ton. The price of 61.5% PB fines at Jingtang Port rose from RMB 1,230/ton at the beginning of the year to RMB 1,625/ton, the highest in early May, an increase of more than 32%. In the second half of the year, under the double blow of the national crude steel production restriction policy and the collapse of real estate consumption, the price of iron ore collapsed. The lowest price of Platts was 87.2 US dollars/ton, and 61.5% PB fines of Jingtang Port was 610 yuan/ton on November 23.

Supply side: According to the global shipping volume data of the Steel Union, the cumulative global shipping volume from January to November was 1.479 billion tons, an increase of 52.06 million tons year-on-year. Australia shipped a total of 842 million tons, basically the same as last year. Brazil shipped a total of 328 million tons, an increase of 19.22 million tons from last year. Non-mainstream shipments totaled 310 million tons, an increase of 30+ million tons compared with last year. The increase in iron ore shipments was basically in the first half of the year. The cumulative output of domestically produced mines from January to October was 222 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.6%.

Demand side: overseas demand has slowed down, and domestic demand has fallen sharply. With the decline in overseas crude steel production and sales, overseas total iron output showed a continuous downward trend after peaking in March. In October, overseas total iron output was 46.95 million tons, an increase of 6.31% year-on-year, and the growth rate was further reduced. Domestic demand: Affected by the domestic policy of suppressing production and the decline in consumption, domestic pig iron production fell by 6.16% year-on-year from January to October, and China's iron ore demand has fallen sharply. China's annual pig iron output is expected to be 827 million tons in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%. The sharp drop in Chinese demand has caused iron ore prices to fall precipitously.

In terms of inventory: steel mills and ports have diversified inventory, and the overall inventory has reached a historical high level over the same period. This year, the inventory of 45 ports closely follow the domestic crude steel production restriction policy, showing a pattern of low before and high afterwards. In the first half of the year, it remained at around 120 million tons, and its performance remained stable and changed little. In the second half of the year, after the average daily molten iron decreased significantly, the inventory continued to accumulate to a historical high of 150 million tons over the same period. The trend of steel mill inventories and port inventories is exactly the opposite, showing a pattern of high before and then low. In the first half of the year, due to the high level of pig iron production, steel mills actively replenish inventory, which kept the inventory high. In the second half of the year, pig iron production dropped sharply, and iron ore prices plummeted. The northern region was also affected by environmental protection restrictions in autumn and winter and the Winter Olympics, which led to the continued low willingness of steel mills to purchase sinter.

Looking forward to 2022, on the supply side, the four major mines will increase, while non-mainstream mines need to pay attention to prices. With the sharp drop in the price of iron ore, the four major mines have successively revised down their output in different ranges this year. Looking forward to next year, Vale is expected to increase its production by 15 million tons, Rio Tinto by 10 million tons, FMG by 5 million tons, BHP Billiton by 2 million tons. The combined output of the four major mines will increase by 32 million tons year-on-year. For non-mainstream mines, due to the scattered distribution of non-mainstream mines, the volume is small, and the cost generally varies greatly. Coupled with the epidemic and changes in demand that have led to increased volatility in ocean freight costs this year, non-mainstream mines have become the easiest subject to be forced to reduce production in the process of falling iron ore prices. According to the calculation of the CRU global iron ore shipping cost and domestic ore cost curve, when the Platts price drops from 140 US dollars/ton to 80 US dollars/ton, it will cause non-mainstream mines such as India and Russia to touch the production cost line. This will trigger a reduction in production, which will be about 90 million tons. When the Platts price drops from US$80/ton to US$60/ton, it will trigger a reduction in output in non-mainstream mines such as Australia, reducing output by about 80 million tons. When the price fell to $60, it was already close to the cost of FMG.

In terms of demand, overseas demand peaked and then declined, while domestic demand was determined by the real estate industry. In 2021, the overseas steel industry is in a period of economic recovery after the epidemic, and demand for iron ore is strong. Looking forward to 2022, the overseas steel industry has been close to full production after the resumption of production this year, especially in Europe and the United States, where the upper part is restricted by capacity bottlenecks, and there is insufficient room for subsequent production increases. At the same time, the epidemic is still continuously impacting overseas industrial production. It is expected that overseas iron ore demand for the whole year of next year will drop by 17 million tons or 1.9% year-on-year.

Domestic: (1) From the current point of view, in the context of the sharp decline in various real estate industry data, the real estate industry is expected to improve marginally, and domestic steel consumption next year is not optimistic. Under these conditions, considering the slowdown in overseas demand, it is expected that iron ore port inventories will accumulate to a high level in the first half of the year, while domestic demand will rebound rapidly in the second half of the year, resulting in a decline in domestic port inventory, and iron ore inventories will maintain a slight positive growth throughout the year. (2) If the country has high demand for economic growth next year, it will inevitably increase the stimulus policies for the real estate industry. Under these conditions, due to the high base in the first half of 2021, iron ore consumption in the first half of next year will still fall sharply year-on-year, but the decline has been significantly narrowed. The high point of iron ore port inventory will appear in March next year. Subsequently, there will be a continuous de-stocking trend, and it is expected that the domestic port iron ore inventory will decline to a certain extent in 2022.

Rubber: The supply growth rate drops, and the bottom of the price may move up.

Combined with the current low car inventory, with the ease of chips, the production side will further increase. In the next year, China will be more inclined to use infrastructure to boost the economy. We expect that the domestic supporting and replacement markets are expected to improve in 2022. With the gradual withdrawal of the overseas monetary easing policy in 2022 and the improvement of the epidemic situation, it is expected that domestic tire exports will return to before the epidemic, and the high-prosperity tire export demand will gradually decline.

From the perspective of upstream and processing end, the current valuation of rubber is not low, at an intermediate level. In 2022, the global natural rubber may show a pattern of rising supply and demand, but the supply growth rate is in a downward stage. On the demand side, due to the slow process of overseas loose exit policies and the possibility of domestic macroeconomic policies supporting the economy, global supply is expected to approach the growth rate of demand in 2021. This may bring about a further improvement in the global rubber supply and demand pattern in 2022, supporting the bottom of rubber prices to continue to rise.

In terms of rhythm, focus on the turning point of domestic structural contradictions early next year. At present, there is still uncertainty about the mutant virus in South Africa, and countries are still on alert. As the impact of the epidemic is difficult to dissipate in the short-term, ocean freight is still high, and it is difficult to see the ease of shipping schedules in Southeast Asia in 2021. Therefore, domestic supply will continue to be tight at the beginning of 2022, and a new round of downstream restocking requirements around the Spring Festival may become a new price driving point, and we need to focus on the upward risk of prices. As the shipping schedule eases, what needs attention is the impact on the domestic supply side.

Strategies: Neutral; in terms of spreads, the main focus should be on the narrowing of the spread between RU and NR.

Risks: epidemic situation; weather in main producing areas; shipping schedule.

Crude oil: The gap between supply and demand has narrowed, and the center of gravity of oil prices has shifted downward.

Fundamental trends: According to the balance sheet forecasts of the three major institutions in November (without considering the impact of Omi Keron on demand), the growth rate of demand is expected to decline from 2021, about 3.5 million barrels per day. If the impact of the mutant virus Omi Keron on demand is taken into account, the growth rate of demand is expected to be further reduced. From the perspective of supply, the growth of supply from non-OPEC countries is roughly the same as the growth of demand by about 3 million barrels per day, and the growth rate of supply from the United States and non-OPEC non-US countries has accelerated compared with 2021. Therefore, in the scenario where the impact of Omi Keron is relatively mild (the vaccine is effective, major economies will not be closed again, and the impact on demand is small), then the growth in oil demand for the whole year of next year is roughly equal to the growth in non-OPEC supply, both Almost balanced. Therefore, regardless of Omi Keron, the most critical factor affecting the supply and demand situation of the oil market next year will come from OPEC's supply growth, including OPEC's initiative to increase production and the pace and quantity of Iranian oil returning to the market. Taking 2021 as the base period for comparison, there will be an average annual supply and demand gap of about 1.5 million barrels per day. Therefore, if OPEC's annual average production increase is below 1.5 million barrels per day, the oil supply and demand gap will narrow next year. , But supply and demand are roughly balanced, and inventory growth is limited. However, if OPEC takes the initiative to increase production + Iran’s export recovery is greater than 1.5 million barrels per day, the form of oil supply and demand next year will turn from shortage to surplus. Considering that Iran itself currently has nearly 2 million barrels of surplus capacity that can be released, if OPEC wants to balance market supply and demand, the space for its initiative to increase production is very limited. Therefore, unless OPEC cuts production next year, it will be a high probability event that the oil market changes from short supply to oversupply. And if Omi Keron significantly drags down demand, the surplus in the oil market will increase next year. Therefore, OPEC faces major challenges in 2022, not only facing the uncertainty of Iranian oil returning to the market, but also facing the challenges brought by Omi Kejon. It is very difficult to achieve a double increase in oil prices and production in 2021. Under the most pessimistic scenario (the earlier return of Iranian oil and the re-locking of Omi Keron), it cannot be ruled out that OPEC will reduce production again next year in order to balance the oil market.

Price outlook: We believe that US$80 to US$85/barrel is already the top level of oil prices. Due to the reversal of the supply and demand situation in 2022, the oil market will shift from destocking to an accumulation cycle. The specific accumulation of stocks depends on the development of the epidemic, the time of Iranian oil returning and OPEC's production control policies. Under the baseline scenario, we expect the annual surplus to be about 1 million barrels per day. We believe that the operating hub of oil prices in 2022 will move downwards compared to 2021. We expect the central level of oil prices to be roughly US$60 to US$70/barrel (Brent). At the same time, we expect that the premiums in recent months will narrow and the long-term curve will be more flattened.

Strategy: Unilaterally tend to be neutral or neutrally bearish.

Risk points: Iran’s sanctions cannot be lifted within 2022; Omi Keron causes severe demand damage; OPEC abandons production control.

Copper: Low inventory is still the biggest obstacle to the turning point of copper prices.

Core point of view:

Sorting out the situation of all links in the industrial chain in 2021

1. Raw material end: The supply of copper concentrate is stable throughout the year, new production capacity is gradually released, and the supply is gradually restored, but it is still affected by factors such as epidemics, strikes, etc.

2. Smelting end: The output fluctuates to a certain extent due to the dual-control power restriction, but the overall upward trend remains unchanged. Affected by the high base number last year and the closure of the import window in the first half of the year, the overall import is not optimistic, but it still basically maintains the level of the same period in 2019.

3. Consumer end: The export of home appliances has become a bright spot for consumption, but the downturn in infrastructure and real estate still dominates consumption is not optimistic.

4. Inventory side: driven by production and speculative demand, global inventory has dropped to a low level.

Market forecast for 2022

Subject to the increased expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, the delay in the global epidemic being effectively controlled, and the weakening of traditional consumption, especially the continued downturn in real estate, the downward pressure on copper prices is greater. At the same time, the current global inventory is still at a historically low level, as well as the gradual recovery of the overseas economy next year, the effect of domestic infrastructure investment may gradually appear and other factors may cause the price decline to not be very smooth, and the volatility may increase.

2022 trading strategy recommendations: neutral

focus point:

Fed rate hike expectations; domestic real estate related policies; inventory changes

铁矿石：供给收缩 钢材消费成为2022年走势指挥棒

2021年，国内铁矿石期现货价格大幅波动。上半年，在国内和海外需求旺盛下， 5月份连铁期货最高涨至1358元/吨，创出上市8年以来新高；普式现货价格同步创出233.1美元/吨历史新高；京唐港61.5%PB粉价格从年初的1,230元/吨一度上涨至5月上旬最高的1,625元/吨，上涨幅度超过32%。下半年，在全国粗钢压产政策和地产消费崩盘的双重打击下，铁矿石价格崩塌式下跌，连铁11月最低报509.5元/吨，普式最低报87.2美元/吨，京唐港61.5%PB粉至11月23日的610元/吨。

供应端：根据钢联新口径全球发运量数据显示，1-11月全球累计总发运量为14.79亿吨，同比增加5,206万吨；澳洲发运累计8.42亿吨，基本与去年持平；巴西发运累计3.28亿吨，较去年增加1,922万吨;非主流发运累计3.10亿吨，较去年增加3,000+万吨，其中铁矿石发运增量基本在上半年。1-10月国产矿累计产量2.22亿吨，累计同比微降0.6%。

需求端：海外需求放缓，国内需求大幅下降。海外需求：2021年1-10月，海外全铁累计产量4.69亿吨，同比增长12.94%，较2019年上涨2.06%，折铁矿消费同比增加8,589万吨。随着海外粗钢产销回落，海外全铁产量3月见顶后呈环比连续下降趋势，10月海外全铁产量4,695万吨，同比增长6.31%，增幅进一步缩小。国内需求：受国内压产政策和消费下滑影响，据华泰期货研究院测算， 1-10月份国内生铁产量累计同比下降6.16%，折国内铁矿石消费降低7,313万吨，中国铁矿石需求出现大幅下降。预计2021年中国全年生铁产量8.27亿吨，同比减少7.6%，折矿石消费减少10,882万吨。中国需求的大幅下降，导致铁矿石价格断崖式下跌。

库存方面：钢厂及港口库存分化，整体累库至历史同期高位。今年铁矿45港港口库存紧跟国内粗钢压产政策，呈现前低后高格局，上半年维持在1.2亿吨附近，表现平稳变化不大，下半年在日均铁水明显出现减量后，库存持续累积至1.5亿吨的历史同期高位。钢厂库存与港口库存走势正好相反，呈现前高后低格局，上半年由于生铁产量维持高位，钢厂积极补库，库存维持高位，下半年生铁产量大幅下降、铁矿石价格直线下降，北方地区又受到秋冬季环保限产和冬奥会的影响，导致钢厂采购烧结矿意愿持续偏低。

展望2022年，供给方面，四大矿山有增量，非主流看价格。随着铁矿石价格的大幅下跌，今年四大矿山陆续对产量进行不同幅度的下修，展望明年预计淡水河谷同比增产1500万吨，力拓同比增产1000万吨，FMG同比增产500万吨，必和必拓同比增产200万吨，四大矿山合计同比增产3200万吨。对于非主流矿山，由于非主流矿山分布较为零散，体量不大，成本普遍差异较大，再加上疫情和需求的变化导致今年海运费成本波动加剧，非主流矿山成为铁矿石价格下跌过程中最容易先行被迫减产的主体。按照CRU全球铁矿海运到岸成本及国产矿成本曲线测算，当普式价格从140美金/吨跌至80美金/吨时，将导致像印度、俄罗斯等非主流矿山触及生产成本线，而发生减产，减量大约为9000万吨。当普式价格从80美金/吨跌至60美金/吨时，将引发像澳洲等非主流矿山的减产，减产量约为8000万吨。而价格跌到60美金时已经接近FMG的成本。

需求方面，海外需求见顶回落，国内需求地产定方向。2021年海外钢铁行业处于疫情之后的经济复苏期，铁矿石需求旺盛，印度、欧盟、日本、南北美洲的全铁产量都出现较大增长。展望2022年，海外钢铁行业已在今年的大力度复产复工下接近满产状态，尤其欧美地区，上方受到产能瓶颈的制约，后续增产空间不足，与此同时，疫情仍在不间断的冲击海外工业生产，预计明年全年海外铁矿石需求将同比下降1700万吨或下降1.9%。国内方面：（1）从当前来看，在房地产行业各项数据大幅下滑背景下，预计房地产行业边际改善，则明年国内钢材消费不容乐观。在此条件下，考虑海外需求放缓，预计铁矿港口库存将在上半年累库至高位，而下半年国内需求回升较快，导致国内港口库存出现下降，铁矿库存全年维持轻微正增长。（2）若国家明年对经济增长诉求高，则必然会加大房地产行业的刺激政策。基于该条件下，由于2021年上半年基数较高，从而使得明年上半年铁矿石消费同比依然大幅下降，但降幅明显收窄，铁矿石港口库存高点出现在明年三月份。随后将呈连续去库态势，预计2022年全年国内港口铁矿石库存出现一定程度的下降。

橡胶：供应增速下降，价格底部或上移

结合当下较低的汽车库存，随着芯片的缓解，生产端将进一步加大。而国内在明年将更多倾向于基建的发力来提振经济。我们预计，2022年国内配套及替换市场均有望改善。伴随着2022年海外货币宽松政策的逐步退出以及疫情好转，预计国内轮胎出口将重新回到疫情前，高景气的轮胎出口需求将逐步回落。

从上游及加工端角度来看，橡胶当前的估值并不低，处于中间水平。2022年全球天然橡胶或呈现供需两升的格局，但因供应增速处于下行阶段，而需求端因海外宽松退出政策进程缓慢叠加国内宏观政策有加码托底经济的可能，预计全球供应有望接近2021年的需求增速，或带来2022年全球橡胶供需格局进一步改善，支撑橡胶价格底部继续抬升。

节奏上来看，重点关注明年初国内结构性矛盾的转折点，目前南非变异病毒还存在不确定，各国尚处于警戒状态，疫情的影响短期难消散下，海运费仍是高企的现状，东南亚船期的缓解在2021年难以见到。因此，2022年初国内的供应将延续紧张局面，春节前后的下游新一轮补库需求或成为新的价格推动点，重点关注价格的上行风险，而随着船期的缓解之后，需要关注的是国内供应端的冲击。

策略：中性，关注波段机会，价差主要关注RU与NR的价差缩窄机会。

风险：疫情，主产区天气，船期。

原油：供需缺口收窄，油价重心下移

基本面趋势：按照三大机构11月报的平衡表预测来看（未考虑奥密克戎对需求影响），预计需求增长幅度较2021年有所下滑，约为350万桶/日。如果在考虑到变异病毒奥密克戎对需求的冲击，需求增速预期还会进一步下调。供给方面来看，非OPEC国家供应增长大致与需求增长相同约为300万桶/日，美国供应以及非OPEC非美国家供应增长幅度均较2021年有所加快。因此，在奥密克戎的影响相对温和的情境下（疫苗有效，各大经济体不会再度封城，对需求影响轻微），那么明年全年石油需求增长大致等于非OPEC供应增长，两者几乎平衡，因此抛开奥密克戎不谈，明年影响石油市场供需形势最关键的因素来自OPEC供应增长，包括欧佩克主动增产的部分以及伊朗石油重返市场的节奏和数量，而考虑到以2021年作为比较基期，全年平均来看有约150万桶/日的供需缺口，因此，OPEC如果全年平均增产幅度在150万桶/日以下的话，明年石油供需缺口收窄，但供需大致平衡，库存增幅有限，但如果欧佩克主动增产+伊朗出口恢复大于150万桶/日，那明年石油供需形式将从短缺转为过剩，而考虑到伊朗本身目前就有近200万桶/日的剩余产能可以释放，因此如果欧佩克想平衡市场供需，其主动增产的空间非常有限，因此除非欧佩克明年减产，否则石油市场从供不应求转为供过于求将是大概率事件，而如果再加上奥密克戎显著拖累需求，那么明年石油市场过剩将会加剧。因此，2022年欧佩克面对重大挑战，不仅要面临伊朗石油重返市场的不确定性，还要应对奥密克戎带来的挑战，想要实现2021年的油价与产量双增难度非常大，在最为悲观的情形（伊朗石油较早回归叠加奥密克戎导致再度封城）之下，不排除欧佩克明年为了平衡油市而出现再度减产。

价格展望：我们认为80至85美元/桶已经是油价的顶部水平，2022年由于供需形势的逆转，石油市场将从去库转为累库周期，具体累库的幅度取决于疫情发展，伊朗石油重返时间以及欧佩克的产量调控政策，基准情况下，我们预计全年过剩幅度约100万桶/日，我们认为2022年油价的运行中枢相较于2021年将会有所下移，我们预计油价中枢水平大致在60至70美元/桶（Brent），同时我们预计近月升水将会收窄，远期曲线将更加平坦化。

策略：单边倾向于中性或者中性偏空配置

风险点：伊朗制裁无法在2022年内解除、奥密克戎造成需求严重破坏、欧佩克放弃产量调控

铜：低库存仍是铜价拐点最大的拦路虎

核心观点：

2021年产业链各环节情况梳理

1、 原料端：铜精矿年内供应整体稳定，新增产能逐步释放，供给逐渐修复，但仍受疫情、罢工等因素干扰

2、 冶炼端：产量受双控限电影响出现一定波动，但整体上升趋势不改。受去年高基数以及进口窗口上半年关闭的影响，进口整体不乐观，但仍基本维持2019年同期水平

3、 消费端：家电出口成为消费亮点，但基建与地产的低迷仍主导消费并不乐观

4、 库存端：生产与投机性需求共同驱动，全球库存降至低位

2022年行情预测

受制于美联储加息预期增强、全球疫情迟迟得不到有效控制、传统消费的走弱，特别是房地产的延续低迷，铜价下行压力较大，同时，目前全球库存依然处于历史低位，以及明年海外经济的逐步复苏、国内基建投资效果可能逐渐显现等因素可能导致价格下行并不会十分顺畅，波动可能加剧。

2022年交易策略建议：中性

关注点：

美联储加息预期，国内房地产相关政策，库存变动