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Daily morning for Crude oil, PTA, natural rubber, iron ore, copper Iro (ZH & EN) 2021.12.7

Fang submitted 2021-12-07 10:30:57

Iron Ore: Signs of market recovery are obvious, and the future trend is optimistic.

Viewpoint and logic:

On the night of the 3rd, the market's response quickly turned warmer when Premier Li Keqiang met with the IMF President's statement on the prudent monetary policy. The black series all contracts rose by more than 2% at the opening, and then the market enthusiasm has faded. On the 6th, the price of futures contracts fluctuated slightly throughout the day. The final closing price of the 2205 contract was 615.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton or 0.49% from yesterday.

On the supply side, the iron ore shipment data released by the Iron and Steel Union on the 6th showed that 34.67 million tons of iron ore were shipped globally last week, an increase of 10.1% from the previous month. The iron ore arrival volume was 22.85 million tons, an increase of 16.7% from the previous month. Iron ore inventories continue to rise, reaching 155 million tons, continuing to accumulate inventories. In terms of demand, although iron and steel companies currently have higher profits, the impact of restricted production made the national blast furnace operating rate only 47.8% last week, and it was only 37.8% in Hebei. Therefore, iron ore inventories in steel mills are also accumulating.

In the long run, the overall black series industry is highly dependent on the real estate industry. At present, various indicators of the real estate industry have experienced signs of marginal recovery after experiencing a sharp decline last month. In the case of steel consumption has not improved, the current supply of iron ore maintains an increase. Reduced demand, coupled with stricter production restrictions, makes iron ore still suppressed by high inventories. But after the market closed yesterday, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio. At the same time, the Politburo Work Conference proposed that it will promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry. The current dilemma facing the real estate industry should be greatly improved, so steel consumption will also rebound to a certain extent. In the long run, demand for iron ore will increase, and the follow-up market is more optimistic.


Unilateral: Cautiously bullish

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. Real estate related policies

2. Overseas mining plan

3. Sea freight change risk

Rubber: Rainfall in Thailand has decreased and production is expected to pick up.

On December 6, the most-active RU contract closed at 14630 (-90) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13,050 (-50) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -955 yuan/ton (+90); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 87139 (+811) lots, the short position was 125893 (+2101) lots, and the net short position was 38754 (+1290) lots.

On December 6, the most-active NR contract closed at 11345 (-95) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,770 (-15) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,765 (-15) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,740 (-15) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -261 (-7) yuan/ton.

As of December 4: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 209283 (+20933) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 154530 (+14060) tons.

Raw materials: The market is closed and there are no quotations. Sheet rubber 56.8 (0), cup lump 48.5 (0), latex 59.5 (0), RSS3 60.67 (0).

As of December 3, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 62.98% (-2.98%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 62.17% (-0.08%).

Opinion: This week, the rain in the main producing areas of southern Thailand will be reduced, and the output is expected to rebound, which will restrain the price of raw materials. On the demand side, there is still uncertainty due to the mutant virus, and the market sentiment is poor, but the overall sentiment has eased compared with last week. Coupled with the favorable domestic RRR cut, the drag on the macro atmosphere is weakening. Domestic heavy-duty truck sales continue to show weakness, and terminal acceptance is limited, resulting in a recent increase in the inventory of finished products in tire factories, which will curb the raw material purchase demand of tire factories in the short term. The overall supply and demand were weak this week, and weak prices are expected to operate mainly. However, because the market price is close to the cost line of domestic raw material prices, bearishness must also be treated with caution.

Strategy: Neutral, take a wait-and-see attitude


1. Epidemic recurring

2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen

3. Weak demand

Crude oil: There are reports of mild early cases of Omi Keron.

Oil prices rebounded sharply yesterday, due to reports that Omi Keron’s early cases were fairly mild, alleviating some market concerns. According to the estimates of the three major organizations' monthly reports, the growth rate of demand for the whole year in 2022 is roughly 3 to 3.5 million barrels per day. The market pays more attention to the consumption recovery of aviation kerosene in emerging market countries, and the latest variation of Omi Keron once again brings new uncertainty to oil demand next year. As the key information of Omi Keron's infectiousness, vaccine effectiveness, and severe mortality rate is not yet known, its impact on demand is still unknown. If we follow the most pessimistic scenario, that is, high infectivity, low vaccine effectiveness and high fatality rate, which will lead to the global tightening of epidemic prevention again, that is, the beginning of a new round of lockdown of the country and city, then the impact on demand will be irresistible. Underestimate, do not rule out the impact of 5~10% of the demand. This means that the oversupply in the oil market next year will become more apparent. But if it is only similar to the impact of the Delta virus, then the impact on oil demand is relatively minor and will not have a significant impact on the demand recovery trend next year. However, the current information about Omi Keron is still not clear enough, and we need to pay close attention to developments and official agencies and pharmaceutical companies' statements on the key information of Omi Keron.

Strategy: Neutrally bearish


1. Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

2. The impact of the variant virus is less than expected.

Copper: The interference at the mine side is relatively large, and the demand side changes are limited.


On the macro front, the central bank decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points to 8.4% on December 15. Overseas, the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States show that Ome Keron infections have been reported in 16 states. But the market seems to have a certain expectation for this. Yesterday's 10-year U.S. Treasury yields and crude oil prices showed an increase.

From a fundamental point of view, the mine has been greatly affected by the epidemic since last week. According to SMM research, important ports in northern China are still affected to varying degrees under the interference of the epidemic. Among them, Alashankou Port and Erlianhot Port were more affected. Although the Alashankou port has not closed, the speed of customs clearance has slowed significantly under the epidemic prevention and control, resulting in a large amount of copper concentrate and electrolytic copper stranded at the port. The Erlianhot port has completely suspended the import and access of non-container cargo from November 28, and the specific recovery time has not yet been determined. Ganqimaodu Port was closed for a week at the end of November. Although customs clearance is expected to resume on December 3, it is expected that the speed of customs clearance and shipment will hardly pick up significantly in the short term. Generally speaking, since the fourth quarter of this year, the import volume of northern China ports has been significantly affected by the interference of epidemic prevention and control. China’s imports from Kazakhstan in October fell by 87.52% year-on-year to only 13,200 physical tons. Affected by this, the TC of copper concentrate import processing fee showed a slight decline in the fourth quarter. On the smelting side, the wave of electricity curtailments across the country basically ended in November. The copper output that month was 825,900 tons, an increase of 4.6% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year. However, mine-side interference and the decline in sulfuric acid prices inhibited the enthusiasm of smelters to produce, making it difficult for the electrolytic copper output in November to return to the high level in the second quarter. In terms of terminal consumption, the final value of the PMI composite index of the copper downstream industry in November was 51.11, an increase of 0.74 percentage points from the previous month. In November, stimulated by the end of wide-scale staggered electricity consumption across the country, coupled with the country's slight relaxation of the real estate market, all industries benefited slightly and the comprehensive PMI increased. In terms of breakdown, the production index rose by 1.07 percentage points to 51.59, and the new order index rose by 0.8 percentage points to 50.97. The abolition of power restrictions, coupled with the fact that raw material prices have remained low for most of November, has stimulated many companies to actively produce to catch up with orders. In terms of copper scrap, the price of copper declined this week, which led to the weakening of the price difference between refined copper and copper scrap, from above the reasonable range to below the reasonable range. The consumption support of scrap copper for refined copper has reappeared from the data point of view. In terms of inventory, on December 3, the social warehouse was 82,700, a month-on-month decrease of 7,700 tons from last Friday. Among them, Guangdong's inventory of 5,900 tons is approaching the lowest level in history, which has driven the rapid upward trend of copper premiums and discounts in South China. After the increase in Shanghai's inventory last week, 17,000 tons of inventory were removed again. SHFE has destocked 4548 tons to 7,389 tons on a weekly basis, which has dropped to the lowest level since July 2014. LME destocks 5,450 tons to 78,000 tons on a weekly basis, and the destocking trend continues. In terms of imports, the overall transaction in the imported copper market during the week was light, and the premium also showed a trend of rising and then falling. Recently, affected by the strengthening of the customs' quarantine work on incoming ships, some ships have difficulty docking, and the port's work efficiency is low, which has led to a further decline in inventory in the bonded area. According to SMM research, this Friday (December 3), the domestic free trade zone copper inventory decreased by 5,700 tons from last Friday (November 26) to 183,500 tons, a decline for eight consecutive weeks. Among them, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased by 4,700 tons to 169,600 tons from the previous month, and the inventory in the Guangdong Free Trade Zone fell by 10 thousand tons from the previous month to 13,900 tons.


1. Unilateral: Neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: Shenghong's overhaul has been extended, and the TA basis has strengthened again.

1. After Zhejiang Petrochemical's new plant was put into production, the total load increase was still slow.

(1) The total operating rate of the 9 million tons of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX equipment is only around 65%, and the progress of increasing the load is still slow. The PX processing fee in the early stage has been compressed to a low level on the left side, and is currently consolidating at the bottom.

2. Increased maintenance of PTA factory

(1) Shenghong 2# originally planned to implement maintenance until the middle of the month, but it may be extended to the end of the month. TA basis strengthened sharply, and PTA processing fees also rebounded. (2) Hengli 4# 2.5 million tons is scheduled to be overhauled on December 10, and Yisheng Dahua only reduced the load for operation. Fuhai Chuang currently implements reduced load operation.

3. The weaving terminal orders are still insipid.

(1) Terminal orders are still insufficient, and the willingness to purchase filaments is weak. At present, the main focus is on digesting inventory.

(2) As the polyester plant has a joint production reduction plan, it is expected that the polyester operating rate will fall below 83%-85% from December to January.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the expectation of concentrated production cuts in polyester factories and the full implementation of PTA plant overhauls, inventories were accumulated slightly or flattened in December, but the room for further compression of PTA processing fees is also limited. The current absolute price drive comes from crude oil price fluctuations.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude; The PTA processing fee rebounded after being compressed to a low level, and the space below was limited. PX Zhejiang Petrochemical's new production capacity suppresses processing fees to a low level.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA plant maintenance progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.


























铜:矿端干扰相对较大 需求端变化有限





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