Iron Ore: Signs of market recovery are obvious, and the future trend is optimistic.

Viewpoint and logic:

On the night of the 3rd, the market's response quickly turned warmer when Premier Li Keqiang met with the IMF President's statement on the prudent monetary policy. The black series all contracts rose by more than 2% at the opening, and then the market enthusiasm has faded. On the 6th, the price of futures contracts fluctuated slightly throughout the day. The final closing price of the 2205 contract was 615.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton or 0.49% from yesterday.

On the supply side, the iron ore shipment data released by the Iron and Steel Union on the 6th showed that 34.67 million tons of iron ore were shipped globally last week, an increase of 10.1% from the previous month. The iron ore arrival volume was 22.85 million tons, an increase of 16.7% from the previous month. Iron ore inventories continue to rise, reaching 155 million tons, continuing to accumulate inventories. In terms of demand, although iron and steel companies currently have higher profits, the impact of restricted production made the national blast furnace operating rate only 47.8% last week, and it was only 37.8% in Hebei. Therefore, iron ore inventories in steel mills are also accumulating.

In the long run, the overall black series industry is highly dependent on the real estate industry. At present, various indicators of the real estate industry have experienced signs of marginal recovery after experiencing a sharp decline last month. In the case of steel consumption has not improved, the current supply of iron ore maintains an increase. Reduced demand, coupled with stricter production restrictions, makes iron ore still suppressed by high inventories. But after the market closed yesterday, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio. At the same time, the Politburo Work Conference proposed that it will promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry. The current dilemma facing the real estate industry should be greatly improved, so steel consumption will also rebound to a certain extent. In the long run, demand for iron ore will increase, and the follow-up market is more optimistic.

Strategies:

Unilateral: Cautiously bullish

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. Real estate related policies

2. Overseas mining plan

3. Sea freight change risk

Rubber: Rainfall in Thailand has decreased and production is expected to pick up.

On December 6, the most-active RU contract closed at 14630 (-90) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13,050 (-50) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -955 yuan/ton (+90); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 87139 (+811) lots, the short position was 125893 (+2101) lots, and the net short position was 38754 (+1290) lots.

On December 6, the most-active NR contract closed at 11345 (-95) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,770 (-15) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,765 (-15) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,740 (-15) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -261 (-7) yuan/ton.

As of December 4: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 209283 (+20933) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 154530 (+14060) tons.

Raw materials: The market is closed and there are no quotations. Sheet rubber 56.8 (0), cup lump 48.5 (0), latex 59.5 (0), RSS3 60.67 (0).

As of December 3, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 62.98% (-2.98%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 62.17% (-0.08%).

Opinion: This week, the rain in the main producing areas of southern Thailand will be reduced, and the output is expected to rebound, which will restrain the price of raw materials. On the demand side, there is still uncertainty due to the mutant virus, and the market sentiment is poor, but the overall sentiment has eased compared with last week. Coupled with the favorable domestic RRR cut, the drag on the macro atmosphere is weakening. Domestic heavy-duty truck sales continue to show weakness, and terminal acceptance is limited, resulting in a recent increase in the inventory of finished products in tire factories, which will curb the raw material purchase demand of tire factories in the short term. The overall supply and demand were weak this week, and weak prices are expected to operate mainly. However, because the market price is close to the cost line of domestic raw material prices, bearishness must also be treated with caution.

Strategy: Neutral, take a wait-and-see attitude

Risks:

1. Epidemic recurring

2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen

3. Weak demand

Crude oil: There are reports of mild early cases of Omi Keron.

Oil prices rebounded sharply yesterday, due to reports that Omi Keron’s early cases were fairly mild, alleviating some market concerns. According to the estimates of the three major organizations' monthly reports, the growth rate of demand for the whole year in 2022 is roughly 3 to 3.5 million barrels per day. The market pays more attention to the consumption recovery of aviation kerosene in emerging market countries, and the latest variation of Omi Keron once again brings new uncertainty to oil demand next year. As the key information of Omi Keron's infectiousness, vaccine effectiveness, and severe mortality rate is not yet known, its impact on demand is still unknown. If we follow the most pessimistic scenario, that is, high infectivity, low vaccine effectiveness and high fatality rate, which will lead to the global tightening of epidemic prevention again, that is, the beginning of a new round of lockdown of the country and city, then the impact on demand will be irresistible. Underestimate, do not rule out the impact of 5~10% of the demand. This means that the oversupply in the oil market next year will become more apparent. But if it is only similar to the impact of the Delta virus, then the impact on oil demand is relatively minor and will not have a significant impact on the demand recovery trend next year. However, the current information about Omi Keron is still not clear enough, and we need to pay close attention to developments and official agencies and pharmaceutical companies' statements on the key information of Omi Keron.

Strategy: Neutrally bearish

Risk:

1. Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

2. The impact of the variant virus is less than expected.

Copper: The interference at the mine side is relatively large, and the demand side changes are limited.

View:

On the macro front, the central bank decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points to 8.4% on December 15. Overseas, the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States show that Ome Keron infections have been reported in 16 states. But the market seems to have a certain expectation for this. Yesterday's 10-year U.S. Treasury yields and crude oil prices showed an increase.

From a fundamental point of view, the mine has been greatly affected by the epidemic since last week. According to SMM research, important ports in northern China are still affected to varying degrees under the interference of the epidemic. Among them, Alashankou Port and Erlianhot Port were more affected. Although the Alashankou port has not closed, the speed of customs clearance has slowed significantly under the epidemic prevention and control, resulting in a large amount of copper concentrate and electrolytic copper stranded at the port. The Erlianhot port has completely suspended the import and access of non-container cargo from November 28, and the specific recovery time has not yet been determined. Ganqimaodu Port was closed for a week at the end of November. Although customs clearance is expected to resume on December 3, it is expected that the speed of customs clearance and shipment will hardly pick up significantly in the short term. Generally speaking, since the fourth quarter of this year, the import volume of northern China ports has been significantly affected by the interference of epidemic prevention and control. China’s imports from Kazakhstan in October fell by 87.52% year-on-year to only 13,200 physical tons. Affected by this, the TC of copper concentrate import processing fee showed a slight decline in the fourth quarter. On the smelting side, the wave of electricity curtailments across the country basically ended in November. The copper output that month was 825,900 tons, an increase of 4.6% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year. However, mine-side interference and the decline in sulfuric acid prices inhibited the enthusiasm of smelters to produce, making it difficult for the electrolytic copper output in November to return to the high level in the second quarter. In terms of terminal consumption, the final value of the PMI composite index of the copper downstream industry in November was 51.11, an increase of 0.74 percentage points from the previous month. In November, stimulated by the end of wide-scale staggered electricity consumption across the country, coupled with the country's slight relaxation of the real estate market, all industries benefited slightly and the comprehensive PMI increased. In terms of breakdown, the production index rose by 1.07 percentage points to 51.59, and the new order index rose by 0.8 percentage points to 50.97. The abolition of power restrictions, coupled with the fact that raw material prices have remained low for most of November, has stimulated many companies to actively produce to catch up with orders. In terms of copper scrap, the price of copper declined this week, which led to the weakening of the price difference between refined copper and copper scrap, from above the reasonable range to below the reasonable range. The consumption support of scrap copper for refined copper has reappeared from the data point of view. In terms of inventory, on December 3, the social warehouse was 82,700, a month-on-month decrease of 7,700 tons from last Friday. Among them, Guangdong's inventory of 5,900 tons is approaching the lowest level in history, which has driven the rapid upward trend of copper premiums and discounts in South China. After the increase in Shanghai's inventory last week, 17,000 tons of inventory were removed again. SHFE has destocked 4548 tons to 7,389 tons on a weekly basis, which has dropped to the lowest level since July 2014. LME destocks 5,450 tons to 78,000 tons on a weekly basis, and the destocking trend continues. In terms of imports, the overall transaction in the imported copper market during the week was light, and the premium also showed a trend of rising and then falling. Recently, affected by the strengthening of the customs' quarantine work on incoming ships, some ships have difficulty docking, and the port's work efficiency is low, which has led to a further decline in inventory in the bonded area. According to SMM research, this Friday (December 3), the domestic free trade zone copper inventory decreased by 5,700 tons from last Friday (November 26) to 183,500 tons, a decline for eight consecutive weeks. Among them, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased by 4,700 tons to 169,600 tons from the previous month, and the inventory in the Guangdong Free Trade Zone fell by 10 thousand tons from the previous month to 13,900 tons.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: Shenghong's overhaul has been extended, and the TA basis has strengthened again.

1. After Zhejiang Petrochemical's new plant was put into production, the total load increase was still slow.

(1) The total operating rate of the 9 million tons of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX equipment is only around 65%, and the progress of increasing the load is still slow. The PX processing fee in the early stage has been compressed to a low level on the left side, and is currently consolidating at the bottom.

2. Increased maintenance of PTA factory

(1) Shenghong 2# originally planned to implement maintenance until the middle of the month, but it may be extended to the end of the month. TA basis strengthened sharply, and PTA processing fees also rebounded. (2) Hengli 4# 2.5 million tons is scheduled to be overhauled on December 10, and Yisheng Dahua only reduced the load for operation. Fuhai Chuang currently implements reduced load operation.

3. The weaving terminal orders are still insipid.

(1) Terminal orders are still insufficient, and the willingness to purchase filaments is weak. At present, the main focus is on digesting inventory.

(2) As the polyester plant has a joint production reduction plan, it is expected that the polyester operating rate will fall below 83%-85% from December to January.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the expectation of concentrated production cuts in polyester factories and the full implementation of PTA plant overhauls, inventories were accumulated slightly or flattened in December, but the room for further compression of PTA processing fees is also limited. The current absolute price drive comes from crude oil price fluctuations.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude; The PTA processing fee rebounded after being compressed to a low level, and the space below was limited. PX Zhejiang Petrochemical's new production capacity suppresses processing fees to a low level.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA plant maintenance progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿石：市场回暖信号明显，未来走势乐观

观点与逻辑：

3日夜盘，受李克强总理会见IMF总裁时对稳健货币政策的表态，市场反应迅速转暖，黑色系全合约开盘大涨2%以上，随后市场热情有所消退，6日全天期货合约价格小幅波动，2205合约最终收盘价615.5元/吨，较昨日上涨3元/吨，涨幅0.49%。

供应端，6日钢联公布的铁矿石发运数据显示，上周全球铁矿石发运3467万吨，环比上涨10.1%。铁矿石到港2285万吨，环比上涨16.7%。铁矿石库存继续走高，达到15,500万吨，继续垒库。需求方面钢铁企业虽然目前有较高的利润，但受限产影响，上周全国高炉开工率仅为47.8%，河北地区更是仅有37.8%，因此钢厂铁矿石库存也在累积。

长期来看，整体黑色产业高度依附房地产行业，目前房地产行业各项指标在经历上个月的大幅下跌后，目前已经出现边际回暖的迹象。在钢材消费还没有起色的情况下，铁矿石目前供给维持增量，需求减少，叠加压产趋严，铁矿石仍受高库存压制。但昨日收盘后，央行下调存款准备金率，同时中央政治局工作会议提出：要促进房地产业健康发展和良性循环，房地产行业目前所面临的困境应该会有非常大的改善，因此钢铁消费也将出现一定程度的反弹，长期看铁矿石需求将会增加，后续市场比较乐观。

策略：

单边：谨慎看多

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：房地产相关政策，海外矿山开采计划，海运费变动风险等。

橡胶：泰国雨水减少，产量预期回升

6号，RU主力收盘14630（-90）元/吨，混合胶报价13050元/吨（-50），主力合约基差-955元/吨（+90）；前二十主力多头持仓87139（+811），空头持仓125893（+2101），净空持仓38754（+1290）。

6号，NR主力收盘价11345（-95）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1770（-15）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1765美元/吨（-15），印尼标胶1740（-15）美元/吨。主力合约基差-261（-7）元/吨。

截至12月4日：交易所总库存209283（+20933），交易所仓单154530（+14060）。

原料：市场休市，无报价。生胶片56.8（0），杯胶48.5（0），胶水59.5（0），烟片60.67（0）。

截止12月3日，国内全钢胎开工率为62.98%（-2.98%），国内半钢胎开工率为62.17%(-0.08%）。

观点：本周泰国南部主产区雨水将减少，预计产量有所回升，对原料价格产生抑制。需求端则因为变异病毒仍存不确定性，市场情绪偏差，但总体较上周情绪有所缓和，叠加国内降准利好，宏观氛围的拖累在减弱。国内重卡销售继续示弱，而终端承接有限，导致近期轮胎厂成品库存重新回升，短期将抑制轮胎厂的原料采购需求，本周总体供需偏弱，预计价格弱势运行为主，但因盘面价格接近国内原料价格成本线附近，看空也须谨慎对待，短期交易为主。

策略：中性，观望为主

风险：疫情反复，期现价差持续拉大，需求示弱等。

原油：有报道称奥密克戎早期病例表现温和

昨日油价大幅反弹，因有报道称奥密克戎的早期病例相当温和，缓和了部分市场担忧。根据三大机构月报预估，2022年全年需求增长幅度大致在300至350万桶/日，市场较为关注新兴市场国家、航空煤油的消费复苏力度，而最新变异的奥密克戎又再度为明年石油需求带来了新的不确定性，由于目前奥密克戎的传染性、疫苗有效性以及重症致死率等关键信息尚未知晓，因此其对于需求的影响仍不可知，如果按照最悲观的情形，即高传染性、低疫苗有效性叠加高重症致死率，进而导致全球再度进入防疫收紧状态，即开始新一轮封国、封城，那么对需求的影响将不可小觑，不排除影响5~10%的需求，这就意味着明年石油市场的供应过剩将会更加明显，但如果是仅仅类似Delta病毒的影响，那么对石油需求的影响是相对轻微的，不会对明年需求复苏趋势产生明显冲击，不过，目前奥密克戎的相关信息仍旧不够明朗，需要密切关注事态发展以及官方机构、药厂对于奥密克戎关键信息的表态。

策略：中性偏空

风险：中东地缘政治风险，变种病毒影响不及预期

铜：矿端干扰相对较大 需求端变化有限

观点：

宏观方面，央行决定于12月15日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点至8.4%。海外方面，奥密克戎肆虐，美国疾控中心的最新数据显示已有16个州出现感染病例。但市场似乎对此早有了一定的预期，昨日10年期美债收益率以及原油价格反倒呈现出了走高的情况。

基本面来看，上周起矿端受疫情的干扰较大，据SMM调研了解，中国北方各重要口岸在疫情干扰下依旧不同程度受到影响。其中阿拉山口口岸和二连浩特口岸受到影响较大，阿拉山口口岸虽然并未关闭口岸，但是疫情防控下清关速度明显放缓，大量铜精矿以及电解铜滞留口岸；二连浩特口岸则是从11月28号起彻底暂停进口及接入非集装箱货物，具体恢复时间暂未确定；甘其毛都口岸在11月底关闭口岸一周，虽然预计从12月3日起恢复清关，但预计短期内清关发货速度难见明显回暖。总体看，今年四季度以来，受到防控疫情干扰下中国北方口岸进口量受到明显影响，中国10月从哈萨克斯坦进口量同比降低87.52%至仅剩1.32万实物吨，受此影响，铜精矿进口加工费TC在四季度呈现小幅回落之势。冶炼端方面，11月份全国各地限电潮基本结束，当月解铜产量82.59万吨，环比上升4.6%，同比上升0.5%。但矿端干扰以及硫酸价格下降抑制冶炼厂生产积极性，让11月电解铜产量难以回到二季度高位。终端消费方面，11月铜下游行业PMI综合指数终值为51.11，环比上升0.74个百分点；11月受全国结束大范围错峰用电刺激，再加上国家对房地产市场的调控略有放松，各行各业均略有获益综合PMI有所上升。细分来看，生产指数上升1.07个百分点至51.59，新订单指数上升0.8个百分点至50.97，取消限电再加上11月多数时间原材料价格都是维持在低位，刺激不少企业积极生产追赶订单。废铜方面，本周铜价下行，带动精废价差走弱，从合理区间上方回落至合理区间下方，废铜对于精铜的消费支撑从数据上看再次显现，库存方面，12月3日社库8.27万，环比上周五下降0.77万吨。其中广东库存0.59万吨已迫近历史最低位，因此带动华南铜升贴水的快速上行。上海库存在上周增加后，再度去库0.17万吨。SHFE周度去库4548吨至7389吨，已降至2014年7月以来最低水平。LME周度去库5450吨至7.8万吨，去库态势仍在持续。进口方面，周内进口铜市场成交整体清淡，市场成交仅在周四比价“昙花一现”表现较好，而后又回到了冷清状态，溢价也呈现冲高回落态势。近期受海关加强对入境船舶的检疫工作的影响，部分船难以靠岸，港口工作效率较低，导致保税区库存进一步下滑。据SMM调研了解，本周五（12月3日）国内保税区铜库存环比上周五（11月26日）减少0.57万吨至18.35万吨，连续八周下滑，其中上海保税区库存环比下降0.47万吨至16.96万吨，广东保税区库存环比下降0.1万吨至1.39万吨。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.疫情风险加剧

PTA：盛虹检修延长，TA基差再度走强

一、浙石化新装置投产后，总负荷提升仍慢

（1）浙石化PX总共900万吨装置总开工率上仅在65%附近，提负进度仍慢。前期PX加工费已左侧压缩至低位，底部盘整。

二、PTA工厂检修增加

（1）盛虹2#原计划检修至月中，目前可能延长至月底。TA基差大幅走强，PTA加工费亦展开反弹。（2）恒力4#250万吨计划12.10检修，逸盛大化仅降负运行。福海创兑现降负运行。

三、织造终端订单仍一般

（1）终端订单仍不足，对长丝备货意愿偏淡，消化库存为主。（2）目前聚酯工厂减产中，预期12-1月聚酯开工率降至83%到85%附近。

平衡表展望：聚酯工厂集中减产降负预期下，PTA工厂检修预期全兑现背景下，12月微幅去库或库存走平。PTA加工费再压缩空间亦有限，若加工费低位或吸引亏损性检修以再平衡。目前绝对价格驱动来源于原油价格波动。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望，原油有所探底，PTA加工费压缩至低位后反弹，下方空间有限，PX浙石化新增产能压制加工费亦已到低位。（2）跨期套利：观望。

风险：原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂检修兑现进度，浙石化PX新装置提负进度，聚酯工厂联合减产进度。