Iron Ore: The optimism dissipates and the market may face a correction again.

Viewpoint and logic:

The overall rise of the black series driven by bullish policy news early this week did not last long. Following the market correction on the 8th, the overall black series continued to fall on the 9th, generally exceeding 2.5%. The iron ore 2205 contract did not continue the 8th defensive trend, and the night trading dived 1.4% to start. In the afternoon session of the 9th, it once fell by more than 4.6%, with a minimum of 632 yuan/ton, and then stabilized and rebounded slightly. It finally closed at 642.5 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from yesterday, or 2.43%.

Iron ore arrivals from the supply side continued to rise, and inventories remained high. Although iron and steel companies currently have higher profits, due to the impact of restricted production, production capacity has not increased month-on-month, and iron ore inventories in steel mills are also accumulating.

On the demand side, according to the weekly steel data released by the Union of Steel, the amount of steel out of warehouses has increased month-on-month, and steel inventories have continued to decrease, but output has not increased accordingly, confirming the impact of the continuous production restrictions of steel mills in the north. The demand for construction steel in steel sales has improved significantly, indicating that due to the loose margins of real estate companies' financing, there are obvious signs of resumption of work and production at the beginning of construction projects. Affected by the statement made by the Political Bureau of the Central Committee to promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry, the real estate ETF rose by 1.74% on the 9th, and market confidence continued to be boosted. At present, iron ore is weakened in the short-term due to the impact of steel mills' production restrictions. But in the long run, considering the boosting of confidence in the real estate industry, after the relaxation of production restrictions, iron ore may continue to strengthen in the future.

Strategies:

Unilateral: Neutrally take a wait-and-see attitude

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. Real estate related policies

2. Overseas mining plan

3. Limited production of steel mills

Rubber: Thailand latex prices continue to fall.

On December 9, the most-active RU contract closed at 14375 (-245) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12850 (-125) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1050 yuan/ton (-5); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 90073 (-1816) lots, the short position was 133846 (-1383) lots, and the net short position was 43773 (+433) lots.

On December 9, the most-active NR contract closed at 11175 (-125) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,745 (-10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,735 (-10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,765 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -158 (+30) yuan/ton.

As of December 4: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 209283 (+20933) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 154530 (+14060) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 56.15 (0), cup lump 47.5 (-0.2), latex 52.5 (-2), RSS3 57.55 (-1.12).

As of December 3, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 62.98% (-2.98%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 62.17% (-0.08%).

Opinion: This week, due to the decrease in rainwater in the main producing areas of Thailand, the increase in raw material output has caused the price of latex to drop significantly. The price of latex in Thailand continued to fall yesterday, and the support for rubber costs was significantly loosened. On the demand side, due to the re-accumulation of finished goods inventory of domestic tire factories, weak demand will cause the raw material purchase demand of tire factories to decline. With weak supply and demand, prices continued to fall this week. The domestic production area in Yunnan has stopped delivery, and the output of raw materials is limited. According to the current domestic raw materials, the cost support of the market price is about 14,000 yuan/ton. The space below is expected to be limited.

Strategy: Neutral

Risks:

1. Epidemic recurring

2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen

3. Weak demand

Crude oil: The Iranian nuclear talks are once again at a deadlock.

The US-Iran talks were once again at an impasse, and Biden said to his team that he would prepare for Iran's diplomatic failure. For now, the US and Iran are still facing the game of "who takes the first step". The United States requires Iran to return to the Iran nuclear agreement first to reduce the number of uranium enrichers, and Iran requires the United States to lift its sanctions first. If the Iranian nuclear talks fail, this means that sanctions on Iran may continue until next year, and Iranian oil exports will remain sluggish. But for now, sanctions have a greater impact on Iran's economy. It is not ruled out that Iran will make concessions in the future, so the process of the US-Iran nuclear talks will be repeated. But as far as the current results are concerned, the medium-term outlook for oil prices is positive. Once Iranian oil cannot return to the market, it will significantly ease the oversupply and demand next year.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk:

1. Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

2. The impact of the variant virus is less than expected.

Copper: The market transactions were insipid, and the premium and discount prices quotations continue to fall.

On the macro level, the National Bureau of Statistics released data yesterday. Mainly affected by the low base in the same period last year, in November, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, and the increase was 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month. Overseas, on the afternoon of Thursday (December 9) Eastern Time, the US Senate passed a bill to speed up raising the debt ceiling by a vote of 64 to 36, further reducing the risk of government shutdown.

From a fundamental point of view, at the mining end, the mining end has been more disrupted by the epidemic since last week. According to SMM research, important ports in northern China are still affected to varying degrees under the interference of the epidemic. Among them, Alashankou Port and Erlianhot Port have been greatly affected. Although Alashankou Port has not closed its ports, the speed of customs clearance has slowed significantly under the epidemic prevention and control, and a large number of copper concentrates and electrolytic copper are stranded at the ports. The Erlianhot port has completely suspended the import and access of non-container cargo from November 28, and the specific recovery time has not yet been determined. Ganqimaodu Port was closed for a week at the end of November. Although customs clearance is expected to resume on December 3, it is expected that the speed of customs clearance and shipment will hardly pick up significantly in the short term. Generally speaking, since the fourth quarter of this year, the import volume of northern China ports has been significantly affected by the interference of epidemic prevention and control. China’s imports from Kazakhstan in October fell by 87.52% year-on-year to only 13,200 physical tons. Affected by this, the TC of copper concentrate import processing fee showed a slight decline in the fourth quarter. In addition, we need to pay attention to the general election situation in Chile at the end of the month. On the smelting side, the wave of electricity curtailments across the country basically ended in November. The copper output that month was 825,900 tons, an increase of 4.6% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year. However, mine-side interference and the decline in sulfuric acid prices inhibited the enthusiasm of smelters to produce, making it difficult for the electrolytic copper output in November to return to the high level in the second quarter. In terms of terminal consumption, the final value of the PMI composite index of the copper downstream industry in November was 51.11, an increase of 0.74 percentage points from the previous month. In November, stimulated by the end of wide-scale staggered electricity consumption across the country, coupled with the country's slight relaxation of the real estate market, all walks of life benefited slightly, and the comprehensive PMI increased. In terms of breakdown, the production index rose by 1.07 percentage points to 51.59, and the new order index rose by 0.8 percentage points to 50.97. The abolition of power restrictions, coupled with the fact that raw material prices have remained low for most of November, has stimulated many companies to actively produce to catch up with orders. In terms of copper scrap, the price of copper declined this week, which led to the weakening of the price difference between refined copper and copper scrap, from above the reasonable range to below the reasonable range. The consumption support of scrap copper for refined copper has reappeared from the data point of view.

In general, the disturbance at the mine end has increased. Major ports in northern China were still affected to varying degrees under the interference of the epidemic, and the TC index declined significantly in November. On the smelting end, the nationwide power rationing has basically ended. However, due to the interference from the mine and the decline in the price of sulfuric acid, the smelter's production enthusiasm was inhibited, and the output of electrolytic copper in November was difficult to return to the high level in the second quarter. As for copper scrap, the price of copper fell, which led to the weakening of the spread between refined copper and copper scrap and fell below a reasonable range. Scrap copper's consumption support for refined copper has once again appeared. On the consumer side, it shows a better trend in the off-season. The end of power rationing and the marginal improvement in real estate led to an increase in the PMI of the copper industry in November. Therefore, affected by these multiple factors, copper prices remain volatile for the time being.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: Under the impact of the East China epidemic, PTA factories are expected to reduce production load and implement maintenance.

1. After Zhejiang Petrochemical's new plant was put into production, the total load increase was still slow.

(1) The total operating rate of the 9 million tons of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX equipment is only around 65%, and the progress of increasing the load is still slow. The PX processing fee in the early stage has been compressed to a low level on the left side, and is currently consolidating at the bottom.

(2) Zhenhai Petrochemical is currently operating normally, paying attention to potential future impacts.

2. The Zhenhai epidemic has caused Yisheng New Materials to reduce production load expectations.

(1) Due to the epidemic, Zhenhai District has temporarily implemented closed management, and logistics has been affected at present. The 3.6 million tons of Yisheng New Materials plant reduced the production load to 40-50%, and there are expectations for further reduction of the production load and implementation of maintenance.

3. The East China epidemic further affects polyester factories.

(1) Xiaoshao Polyester Factory requires all loading drivers to provide the itinerary code or carry a 48-hour accounting test report before entering the factory for loading. Under the background of filament inventory pressure, we are concerned about the possibility of adjusting the production load of polyester factories in the future.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the expectation of concentrated production cuts in polyester factories and the full implementation of PTA plant overhauls, inventories were accumulated slightly or flattened in December, but the room for further compression of PTA processing fees is also limited. The current absolute price drive comes from crude oil price fluctuations.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude; At present, PTA processing fees have rebounded to a short-term high, with limited space below. PX Zhejiang Petrochemical's new production capacity has also suppressed processing fees to a low level.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA plant maintenance progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿石：乐观情绪消散，盘面再临回调

观点与逻辑：

本周初受政策利好消息驱动的黑色系整体涨势并未持续太久，继8日盘面回调后，9日整体黑色系继续下跌，下跌幅度普遍超过2.5%。铁矿石2205合约并未延续8日的抗跌走势，夜盘跳水1.4%开局，9日午后盘面中一度跌幅超过4.6%，最低632元/吨，随后略有企稳反弹，最终收于642.5元/吨，较昨日跌16元/吨，跌幅2.43%。

供应端铁矿石到港量持续上涨，库存保持高位。钢铁企业虽然目前有较高的利润，但受限产影响，产能环比未见提升，钢厂铁矿石库存也在累积。

需求端根据钢联公布的钢材周度数据，钢材出库量环比增加，钢材库存在持续降低，而产量却未有相应的提升，印证了北方地区钢厂持续性限产的影响。钢材销量中建筑用钢需求明显好转，表明受房地产企业融资边际宽松影响，在施项目开始有明显的复工复产迹象。房地产行业受中央政治局工作会议对促进房地产业健康发展和良性循环的表态，9日房地产ETF涨幅1.74%，市场信心继续有所提振。目前受钢厂限产的影响，铁矿石短期走弱，但长期来看，考虑到房地产业信心的提振，在限产措施放松后，未来铁矿石仍有持续走强的可能。

策略：

单边：中性观望

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：房地产相关政策，钢厂限产，建材钢库存，海外矿山开采计划等。

橡胶：泰国胶水价格继续回落

9号，RU主力收盘14375（-245）元/吨，混合胶报价12850元/吨（-125），主力合约基差-1050元/吨（-5）；前二十主力多头持仓90073（-1816），空头持仓133846（-1383），净空持仓43773（+433）。

9号，NR主力收盘价11175（-125）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1745（-10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1735美元/吨（-10），印尼标胶1765（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-158（+30）元/吨。

截至12月4日：交易所总库存209283（+20933），交易所仓单154530（+14060）。

原料：生胶片56.15（0），杯胶47.5（-0.2），胶水52.5（-2），烟片57.55（-1.12）。

截止12月3日，国内全钢胎开工率为62.98%（-2.98%），国内半钢胎开工率为62.17%(-0.08%）。

观点：本周因泰国主产区雨水的减少，原料产出增加使得胶水价格明显回落，昨天泰国胶水价格继续下降，橡胶成本支撑明显松动。需求端因国内轮胎厂成品库存重新累积，需求的弱势将使得轮胎厂的原料采购需求下降。供需偏弱下，本周价格继续走低。国内云南产区已经停割，原料产出有限，按照目前国内原料，盘面的成本支撑大约在14000元/吨一线。预计下方空间有限。

策略：中性

风险：疫情反复，期现价差持续拉大，需求示弱等。

原油：伊核谈判再度陷入僵局

美伊谈判再度陷入僵局，拜登对其团队称要为伊朗外交失败做出准备，就目前而言，美伊双方仍旧面临“谁先迈出第一步”的博弈，美国要求伊朗首先返回到伊核协议，减少铀浓缩机的数量，而伊朗方面要求美国必须先解除对其制裁，如果伊核谈判失败，这意味着对伊朗的制裁可能延续至明年，伊朗石油出口仍将维持低迷，但就目前来看，制裁对伊朗经济层面的影响较大，不排除未来伊朗会做出让步，因此美伊核谈的进程将有所反复，但就目前的结果而言，对油价中期的展望偏向利好，一旦伊朗石油无法重返市场，对于明年的供需过剩起到明显的缓和作用。

策略：中性，行情走势偏震荡

风险：中东地缘政治风险，变种病毒影响不及预期

铜：市场成交显清淡 升贴水报价持续走低

宏观方面，昨日国家统计局发布数据，主要受去年同期基数较低影响，11月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.3%，涨幅比上月扩大0.8个百分点，环比上涨0.4%，涨幅比上月回落0.3个百分点。海外方面，美东时间周四（12月9日）下午，美国参议院以64票对36票通过了加快提高债务上限的法案，进一步降低了政府关门的风险。

基本面来看，在矿端，上周起矿端受疫情的干扰较大，据SMM调研了解，中国北方各重要口岸在疫情干扰下依旧不同程度受到影响。其中阿拉山口口岸和二连浩特口岸受到影响较大，阿拉山口口岸虽然并未关闭口岸，但是疫情防控下清关速度明显放缓，大量铜精矿以及电解铜滞留口岸；二连浩特口岸则是从11月28号起彻底暂停进口及接入非集装箱货物，具体恢复时间暂未确定；甘其毛都口岸在11月底关闭口岸一周，虽然预计从12月3日起恢复清关，但预计短期内清关发货速度难见明显回暖。总体看，今年四季度以来，受到防控疫情干扰下中国北方口岸进口量受到明显影响，中国10月从哈萨克斯坦进口量同比降低87.52%至仅剩1.32万实物吨，受此影响，铜精矿进口加工费TC在四季度呈现小幅回落之势。此外，还需要关注月底智利方面大选的情况。冶炼端方面，11月份全国各地限电潮基本结束，当月解铜产量82.59万吨，环比上升4.6%，同比上升0.5%。但矿端干扰以及硫酸价格下降抑制冶炼厂生产积极性，让11月电解铜产量难以回到二季度高位。终端消费方面，11月铜下游行业PMI综合指数终值为51.11，环比上升0.74个百分点；11月受全国结束大范围错峰用电刺激，再加上国家对房地产市场的调控略有放松，各行各业均略有获益综合PMI有所上升。细分来看，生产指数上升1.07个百分点至51.59，新订单指数上升0.8个百分点至50.97，取消限电再加上11月多数时间原材料价格都是维持在低位，刺激不少企业积极生产追赶订单。废铜方面，本周铜价下行，带动精废价差走弱，从合理区间上方回落至合理区间下方，废铜对于精铜的消费支撑从数据上看再次显现。

总的来看，矿端扰动增加，中国北方各重要口岸在疫情干扰下依旧不同程度受到影响，11月TC指数下行明显。冶炼端，全国限电基本结束，但受矿端干扰及硫酸价格下降抑制冶炼厂生产积极性，11月电解铜产量难回二季度高位。废铜方面，铜价下行，带动精废价差走弱回落至合理区间下方，废铜对于精铜的消费支撑再次显现。消费端呈现淡季不淡，限电结束叠加房地产边际改善，11月铜行业PMI有所上升。故此多重因素影响错综，铜价暂时仍维持震荡格局。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.疫情风险加剧

PTA：华东疫情冲击下，PTA工厂有降负检修预期

一、浙石化新装置投产后，总负荷提升仍慢

（1）浙石化PX总共900万吨装置总开工率上仅在65%附近，提负进度仍慢。前期PX加工费已左侧压缩至低位，底部盘整。（2）中金和镇海石化目前正常运行，关注后续潜在影响。

二、镇海疫情导致逸盛新材料有降负检修预期

（1）疫情原因对镇海区临时实施封闭管理，物流已受影响，逸盛新材料360万吨装置降负至4-5成，后续有进一步降负检修预期。

三、华东疫情进一步影响聚酯工厂

（1）萧绍聚酯工厂要求所有装货司机需提供行程码或者携带48小时的核算检测报告方可进厂装货。长丝库存压力背景下，关注后续聚酯工厂负荷调整可能。

平衡表展望：聚酯工厂集中减产降负预期下，PTA工厂检修预期全兑现背景下，12月预期小幅去库。PTA加工费再压缩空间亦有限，若加工费低位或吸引亏损性检修以再平衡。目前绝对价格驱动来源于原油价格波动。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望，目前PTA加工费反弹至短期稍高位而空间有限，PX浙石化新增产能压制加工费亦已到低位。（2）跨期套利：观望。

风险：原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂检修兑现进度，浙石化PX新装置提负进度，聚酯工厂联合减产进度。