Iron Ore: Economic policy information is frequently released, and the future trend should be stabilized.

Affected by the frequent release of national economic policy information last week, the price of iron ore fluctuated significantly along with the price of the overall black products. Affected by the central bank’s reserve reduction and the Central Economic Conference and other macro-positive news, iron ore experienced a strong rise in the first two days, and the 2205 contract reached a peak of 673.5 yuan/ton. However, the market's optimism did not continue, and it began to fall in the next three days, with a minimum of 625.5 yuan/ton. As of the close of last Friday, the final closing price was 636.5 yuan/ton, which was basically the same from the previous day, with a slight drop of 3 yuan/ton. In terms of spot, the lowest price of the four main ports was 699 yuan/ton, an increase of 39 yuan/ton from the previous month, and SSF was 455 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton from the previous month. The Platts 62% US dollar index was US$107, up 8 US dollars from the previous month.

In terms of supply, the total global shipments this period totaled 34.67 million tons, an increase of 3.19 million tons on a weekly basis. Among them, Australia's shipping volume increased by 2.03 million tons from the previous month to 19.86 million tons. Brazil's shipments increased by 580,000 tons from the previous month to 8.04 million tons. Non-mainstream shipments amounted to 6.76 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons on a weekly basis.

In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in steel plants nationwide last week was 57.26%, a decrease of 0.21% from last week, and a decrease of 20.15% from last year, which is still at a historically low level. The average daily molten iron output was 1.987 million tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 448,000 tons from the same period last year.

On the whole, the supply-demand relationship changed little last week, and the shipment volume increased slightly. Port inventory and port volume were basically the same month-on-month, and the supply side continued to relax. On the demand side, although the profit of steel mills is still at a high level, due to the impact of production restrictions, the production capacity of steel mills has not been able to recover for a long time. The average daily molten iron output is still at a historically low level, and the actual increase in demand is not obvious.

At present, the focus of the black series is on the policy side. Last week, the national economic policy frequently appeared. Regarding the real estate industry’s policy statement, there are not only bullish messages such as currency RRR cuts to release liquidity and a virtuous circle of healthy development, but also bad messages such as insisting on curbing new hidden debts and insisting not to speculate on housing. The Central Economic Work Conference last Friday highlighted the word "stable" in the expression of next year's economic policy. Therefore, it can be seen that although the current real estate industry data has fallen sharply, dragging down the overall weak performance of black products, under the overall goal of "stability", the overall expectation for next year is not pessimistic.

Strategies:

Unilateral: Neutrally bullish

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. China relaxes or stimulates economic or real estate policies

2. Large-scale production cuts in mines

3. Risk of rising sea freight

Rubber: Port inventory continues to decline, and rubber prices are expected to stabilize.

Last week, the price of rubber was weak and fluctuated. Due to the decrease in rain and the increase in the output of raw materials in Thailand's main production areas, the prices of latex and other raw materials have fallen significantly, and the support of rubber costs has been significantly weakened. However, due to the re-accumulation of finished product inventory, the operating rate of tire factories has rebounded slowly, and the demand for raw material procurement has also slowed down. The weak supply and demand led to the continued weak operation of rubber prices.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of December 10 was 215,861 tons (+6578), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 175,510 tons (+20980). As of December 5, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, and the rate of decline continued to decrease from the previous month. This is mainly due to the decrease in downstream purchases, but the arrivals in Hong Kong have always been small. As logistics is difficult to solve in the short term, it is expected that it will be difficult to see the turning point of the port's accumulation of inventory at the end of the year.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of December 9, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 64.26% (+1.28%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 63.77% (+1.6%). The weak demand has led to the re-accumulation of the finished product inventory of the tire factory, which will inhibit the recovery of the operating rate in the later period. However, due to concerns about the future curtailment policy, it is expected that the tire factory will maintain the current operating rate in the short term.

Viewpoint: The price of latex and other raw materials has dropped significantly under the reduced rain in Thailand's main producing areas last week, and the expected decline in demand has also made market prices continue to be weak. In the later period, there was still rain in the main producing areas of Thailand, and the relative strength of the price of cup lump also reflected that the demand resilience still exists. Therefore, it is expected that there is limited room for the price of raw materials to continue to fall. As the market's sentiment towards the mutant virus eases, and the domestic currency is gradually turning to easing, the price of rubber is expected to stabilize. From the perspective of changes in domestic port inventories, due to the short-term difficulty of alleviating the shipping problem, it is expected that the port's accumulated inventory will be difficult to see at the end of the year, so the support logic on the supply side is still there. It is expected that rubber prices are expected to stabilize next week, but the upward drive has not seen more bright spots due to demand, and the overall drive is insufficient. The short-term rebound space may also need to look at the surrounding market atmosphere, it is recommended to try a small amount of long orders at low levels.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks:

1. Significant increase in domestic supply

2. Demand continues to weaken due to the epidemic and other impacts

3. Funds are tight

Crude oil: Virus concerns have eased, but the oil market can hardly be reversed.

Oil prices stabilized and rebounded last week. The easing of virus concerns, the deadlock in Iran’s nuclear talks, and China’s RRR cut have boosted oil prices. As far as Omi Keron virus is concerned, with the release of more information, the characteristics of the virus are more inclined to be highly infectious, higher immune escape and lower severe mortality. The possibility of re-blocking within major economies around the world is unlikely, and the market’s previous concerns have eased. From the actual data, in the near future, no matter whether it is the global traffic congestion index or the number of global flights and other high-frequency indicators, there has not been a sharp decline due to the Omi Keron virus, and more are at high levels or stagnant growth. Omi Keron’s impact on real-world oil consumption is not significant or has not yet been fully reflected. However, we believe that the easing of concerns about the virus does not mean a reversal of the crude oil market. We believe that the current round of the market is more of a rebound rather than a reversal. The main reason is that the fundamentals of the oil market will continue to loosen in the first quarter of next year. Although the current absolute level of global oil inventories is low, as the refinery enters the traditional maintenance period, it is expected that the oil market will enter the accumulation inventory cycle in the future. At present, from the perspective of the spread structure, whether it is an inter-month spread, a crack spread, a regional spread, or a premium or discount on physical goods, it has begun to show weakness in the fundamentals in the future. In addition, from the perspective of CFTC positions, fund longs are also quickly withdrawing from the market in the near future. Therefore, on the whole, although the macro and emotional aspects have supported the recent rebound in oil prices, from the perspective of fundamentals and capital, the foundation for rising oil prices is not strong. We believe that the center of gravity of oil prices will be at US$70/barrel before, and the probability of breaking through US$80/barrel again is low.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk:

1. Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

Copper: Long and short factors are intertwined, and the fluctuation pattern of copper prices remains unchanged.

Spot situation:

According to SMM news, the average price of SMM 1# Copper Cathode in the week of December 10th ran at 69,765 yuan/ton and 70,000 yuan/ton, showing a weekly volatile trend. The average premium and discount quotation of Standard-Grade Copper runs from a discount of 25 to a premium of 125 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend in the middle of the week. Last week, copper prices fluctuated. The Shanghai Copper 01 contract operated from a minimum of 68,910 yuan/ton to a maximum of 70,240 yuan/ton. It closed at 69,320 yuan/ton on Friday night, a weekly drop of 70 yuan/ton.

View:

From a macro perspective, the Central Bank decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, 2021 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was 8.4%. The central bank’s RRR cut released about 1.2 trillion yuan, which means that the marginal relaxation of China’s monetary policy. Looking to the future, domestic economic growth is under pressure, and fiscal expenditures are expected to accelerate. The copper bullish atmosphere is heating up, but the upside of copper prices is limited. China's November CPI annual rate was previously 1.5% and announced 2.3%. From the United States to December 4, when the number of people claiming unemployment benefits was 184,000, which was lower than the previous value of 222,000 and reached the lowest value of the year. The foreign economy is gradually improving, and the domestic economy is advancing steadily, raising market sentiment. The domestic epidemic has rebounded again, and the emergence of cases in many places is expected to have an impact on future production and consumption. However, in the current economic slowdown, employment data has become more resilient. With the employment pressure under control, it is expected that the policy for stabilizing growth in the future will be relatively moderate.

From a fundamental point of view, according to SMM, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 69.24%, a decrease of 2.15% from last week. It can be seen that downstream demand has weakened at the end of the year. On the one hand, near the end of the year, both downstream cable factories and copper rod companies will choose to control capital risks and appropriately reduce the number of orders. Therefore, the willingness to purchase before New Year's Day will be suppressed to a certain extent. On the other hand, downstream consumption does show signs of weakening. As the north turns cold, orders from engineering and real estate terminals continue to decline, and demand enters the seasonal off-season around the Spring Festival. In addition, due to environmental protection issues during the Winter Olympics in Ningjin, some small wire and cable factories have restricted production or stopped production recently. In terms of copper scrap, the price difference between refined copper and copper scrap remained below a reasonable price difference this week, supporting refined copper consumption. In terms of inventory, LME has accumulated 3,425 tons to 81,775 tons on a weekly basis, and SHFE has removed 1,058 tons to 6,331 tons on a weekly basis. The social warehouse has a weekly storage of 7,400 to 90,100 tons, and the bonded area has a weekly storage of 8,300 to 175,200 tons. In terms of imports, this week's import loss on the 01 contract remained at around 300 yuan/ton, while the spot import profit window was open. However, near the end of the year, many traders said that the annual trade indicators have been reached. In addition, the issue of delayed shipping schedules has continued to appear recently, which has also inhibited the enthusiasm of spot trading.

On the whole, the macro level has released bullish signals, but the overall demand has weakened towards the end of the year. At the same time, the spread between refined copper and scrap copper supports consumption of refined copper, and inventories remain low. Although the LME showed signs of accumulation in the second half of the week, the inventory turning point was still apparent. December 16th will usher in the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. During this period, copper prices may remain volatile.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Accumulated inventory turning point

2. Monetary policy orientation

3. Energy crisis risk

PTA: The East China epidemic has caused PTA plants to cut production.

In terms of PX supply, this week’s CCF’s PX China operating rate was 68.5% (+0%), and PX Asia’s operating rate was 71.3% (+0%). Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 9 million tons of PX increased the load to 65% to 70%, and the lifting load was still slow. Zhenhai Petrochemical is currently operating normally and is concerned about the potential impact in the future. Under the background of Zhejiang Petrochemical's under-load, the accumulation rate of Asian PX inventory in December-January is still slow, and PX processing fees are expected to be compressed.

In terms of PTA supply, CCF's PTA operating rate was 71.7% (-3.4%) this week. Due to the epidemic, Zhenhai District was temporarily closed for management. At present, logistics has been affected. Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million tons equipment is expected to stop production, and the load has been reduced to 50%. The current PTA processing fee is higher than 600, which basically reflects the expectation of a small destocking in December.

In general, the rebound of crude oil oversold drove the aromatics chain to rebound. PX processing fees are basically compressed in place. In December-January, before Zhejiang Petrochemical is under full load, the accumulation rate of inventory is limited, and the space for compression of PX processing fee is limited. However, PTA has a slight destocking expectation in the context of the implementation of full overhaul in December. However, the current PTA processing fee of more than 600 is basically overdrawn, and there is not much room for re-transaction.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude; At present, PTA processing fees have rebounded to a short-term high, with limited space below. PX Zhejiang Petrochemical's new production capacity has also suppressed processing fees to a low level.

(2) Intertemporal: expect a slight destocking in December, take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA plant maintenance progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿石：经济政策信息频出,未来走势稳字当头

上周受国家经济政策信息频出的影响，铁矿石价格伴随整体黑色系商品价格波动明显，受央行下调准备金以及中央经济会议等宏观利好消息影响，铁矿石前两日走出一波强势的上涨，2205合约最高上探673.5元/吨，但市场乐观情绪并未持续，随后三天开始回落，最低下探625.5元/吨，截至上周五收盘，最终报收636.5元/吨，环比基本持平，微跌3元/吨。现货方面，日青京曹四港最低价699元/吨，环比涨39元/吨，超特粉455元/吨，环比涨幅36元/吨。基差方面，PB粉对应05合约基差103点，周度环比走扩9点，超特粉对应05合约基差-18点，周度环比基本持平。普氏62%美金指数107美金，环比涨8美金。

供应方面，本期新口径全球发运总量3467万吨，周度环比增加319万吨，其中澳洲发运量环比增加203万吨至1986万吨；巴西发运量环比增加58万吨至804万吨；非主流发运676万吨，周度环比增加57万吨。

需求方面，上周全国钢厂高炉产能利用率57.26%，环比上周下降0.21%，同比去年下降20.15%，仍旧处在历史地位；日均铁水产量198.7万吨，环比下降1.8万吨，同比下降44.8万吨。

整体来看上周供需关系变化不大，发运量略有增加，港口库存和疏港量环比基本持平，供应端延续宽松状态；需求端，虽然钢厂利润仍处于高位，但受限产影响，钢厂产能迟迟未能恢复，日均铁水产量仍处在历史低位，实际需求增量并不明显。

目前黑色系焦点集中在政策端，上周国家经济政策频出，对于房地产行业的政策表述中，既有货币端降准释放流动性、促进健康发展良性循环等利多的信息，但也有坚持遏制新增隐性债务、坚持房住不炒等利空的信息。上周五的中央经济工作会议，对于明年的经济政策表述突出一个“稳”字，因此可以看到，虽然当前房地产业各项数据大幅下滑，拖累黑色系商品整体表现疲软，但在“稳”字的总体目标下，对明年的整体预期并不悲观。

策略：

单边：中性偏多

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：国家对经济或房地产政策放松或刺激，矿山出现大范围减产，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：港口库存延续下降，胶价有望企稳

上周胶价弱势震荡为主，泰国主产区因雨水减少，原料产出增加导致胶水等原料价格回落明显，带来橡胶成本端支撑明显削弱，而轮胎厂因成品库存的重新累积，开工率回升缓慢，原料采购需求也有所放缓，供需偏弱导致胶价继续弱势运行。

国内交易所总库存截止12月10为215861吨（+6578），期货仓单量175510吨（+20980）。截至12月5日，青岛保税区库存延续下降，降幅环比继续减少，主要因下游拿货减少，但到港量始终偏少。因物流短期难以解决，预计年底难看到港口累库拐点。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止12月9日，全钢胎企业开工率64.26%（+1.28%），半钢胎企业开工率63.77%（+1.6%）。需求的弱势导致目前轮胎厂成品库存重新累库，将抑制后期开工率回升。但担忧后期限电，预计轮胎厂短期将维持当前的开工率水平。

观点：上周在泰国主产区雨水减少下，胶水等原料价格出现明显回落，需求的预期转差也使得盘面价格延续弱势。后期泰国主产区仍有雨水，且杯胶价格的相对强势也反映出需求韧性还在，因此，预计原料价格继续回落的空间有限。随着市场对于变异病毒的情绪缓和后，且在国内货币阶段性转向宽松的背景下，预计胶价有望企稳。从国内港口库存的变化来看，因海运短期难以缓解，预计港口累库在年底难以见到，因此供应端的支撑逻辑还在，预计下周胶价有望企稳，但向上的驱动因需求未见更多的亮点，整体驱动不足。短期的反弹空间或还需要看周边市场氛围，建议少量尝试低位多单。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：病毒担忧缓和，但油市难言反转

上周油价企稳反弹，病毒担忧缓和、伊朗核谈陷入僵局以及中国降准等宏观面的利多对油价产生提振。单就奥密克戎病毒而言，随着更多信息的发布，病毒的特点更加倾向于高传染性、较高的免疫逃逸性以及较低的重症致死率，全球主要经济体内部出现再度封锁的可能性不大，市场此前的担忧出现缓和，而从现实的数据来看，近期不管是全球交通拥堵指数还是全球航班数量等高频指标，均没有因为奥密克戎病毒出现大幅下降，更多是处于高位或者增长停滞，奥密克戎对现实世界的石油消费冲击并不显著或者尚未完全体现。但我们认为对于病毒担忧的缓和并不意味着原油市场的反转，我们认为本轮行情更多是反弹而非反转，主要原因在于明年一季度油市基本面依然是转松的，虽然当前全球石油库存绝对水平低位，但随着炼厂进入到传统检修期，预计未来油市将进入累库周期，而目前从价差结构来看，不管是月差、裂差还是地区价差、实货升贴水，均已经开始显现未来基本面的疲软，此外，从CFTC持仓上看，基金多头也在近期快速撤离市场，因此，综合来看，虽然宏观和情绪面上支撑了油价近期反弹，但从基本面、资金面情况来看，油价上涨的基础并不牢固，我们认为在年前油价重心将会在70美元/桶，再度突破80美元/桶的概率偏低。

策略：中性，行情走势偏震荡

风险：中东地缘政治风险

铜：多空因素交织，铜价震荡格局不改

现货情况：

据SMM讯，12月10日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于69,765元/吨70,000元/吨，周度呈震荡走势。平水铜平均升贴水报价运行于贴水25至升水125元/吨，周中呈下行走势。上周铜价震荡走势，沪铜01合约运行于最低68,910元吨至最高70,240元/吨，周五夜盘收69,320元/吨，周度跌70元/吨。

观点：

宏观方面，央行决定于2021年12月15日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点（不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构）。本次下调后，金融机构加权平均存款准备金率为8.4%。央行降准释放约1.2万亿元，降准意味着我国货币政策的边际放松，展望未来，国内经济增长存压，财政支出有望加快发力，铜多头氛围升温，但铜价上行有限。中国11月CPI年率前值1.5%，公布2.3%，美国至12月4日当周初请失业金人数18.4万人，低于前值22.2万人，达到年内最低值。国外经济逐步向好，国内经济稳中前进，提升市场情绪。国内疫情再次反弹，多地出现病例，预计会对未来的生产和消费形成影响。不过在当前经济放缓过程中，就业数据韧性较强；在就业压力可控背景下，预计未来稳增长的政策力度整体上将较为温和。

基本面来看，据SMM，精铜杆企业开工率为69.24%，较上周减少2.15%。可以看到，年末下游需求有所转弱，一方面，临近年末，无论是下游线缆厂还是铜杆企业，都会选择控制资金风险，适当减少接单量，因此元旦前采购意愿将受到一定的抑制；另一方面，下游消费确实有走弱的迹象。随着北方转冷，来自工程、房地产终端的订单持续转淡，需求进入春节前后的季节性淡季。另外，近期宁晋地区因冬奥会环保问题，部分小型线缆厂出现限产、停产的现象。废铜方面，本周精废价差维持在合理价差下方，对精铜消费存在支撑。库存方面，LME周度累库3425吨至81775吨，SHFE周度去库1058吨至6331吨。社库周度累库0.74万吨至9.01万吨，保税区周度去库0.83万吨至17.52万吨。进口方面，从比价上来看，本周对01合约进口亏损维持在300元/吨左右，而现货进口盈利窗口是打开状态，叠加外盘back结构大幅收窄，少量需求集中在仓单及近期到港提单上。但是，临近年末多家贸易商表示全年贸易指标已经达成，近期忙于年末清算，参与现货贸易意愿明显减弱。且近期船期延后问题不断出现，也抑制了现货买卖的积极性。

整体来看，宏观层面释放利多信号，但临近年末整体需求有所转弱。同时，精废价差对精铜消费存在支撑，库存仍维持低位，虽LME后半周出现累库迹象，但库存拐点仍为显现。12月16日将迎来美联储FOMC会议，在此期间，铜价或将维持震荡。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 累库拐点 货币政策导向 能源危机风险

PTA：华东疫情导致PTA工厂减产

PX供应方面，本周CCF的PX中国开工率68.5%（+0%），PX亚洲开工率71.3%（+0%）。浙石化PX900万吨提负至65%至70%，提负仍偏慢；中金和镇海石化目前正常运行，关注后续潜在影响。浙石化未满负荷背景下，亚洲PX12-1月累库速率仍偏慢，PX加工费预期压缩到位。

PTA供应方面，本周CCF的PTA开工率71.7%（-3.4%），疫情原因对镇海区临时实施封闭管理，物流已受影响，逸盛新材料360万吨装置有停车预期，目前已降负至5成，配套中金石化PX亦关注后续动向。目前PTA加工费偏高在600以上，基本已反映12月的小幅去库预期。

总体来看，原油超跌反弹带动芳烃链条成本型回升。PX加工费基本压缩到位，12-1月在浙石化未满负荷之前，累库速率有限，PX加工费压缩空间有限。而PTA则在12月全检修兑现的背景下小幅去库预期，但目前600以上的PTA加工费基本透支，可再交易的空间不大。

策略：

单边：观望，目前PTA加工费反弹至短期稍高位，下方空间有限，PX浙石化新增产能压制加工费亦已到低位。

跨期套利：12月小幅去库预期，观望。

关注及风险点：

原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂检修兑现进度，浙石化PX新装置提负进度，聚酯工厂联合减产进度