Iron Ore: Reality collides with expectations, and iron ore remains volatile.

Viewpoint and logic:

Affected by macroeconomic policies and the expected resumption of production by steel mills, iron ore futures prices rose strongly on Monday, with the near-month contract rising more than the far-month contract. The iron ore 2205 contract closed at 668.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton, or 5.03%, from the previous trading day, with open interest increasing 36,713 lots. In terms of spot, iron ore spot quotations also generally rose yesterday. The import port has risen by 20-35 yuan/ton throughout the day, the price of imported ore in Qingdao Port has risen by 25-30 yuan/ton, and the PB fines in Tianjin Port has risen by 735-740 yuan/ton. On the 13th, a total of 1.325 million tons of iron ore in main ports nationwide were traded, up 14.2% from the previous month.

In terms of supply, the current iron ore supply side is relatively loose, iron ore shipments are relatively stable, and port inventory remains high. According to Mysteel's statistics, the total iron ore shipped from Australia and Brazil was 22.528 million tons, a decrease of 5.375 million tons from the previous month. Among them, Australia sent 14.083 million tons to China, a decrease of 1.836 million tons from the previous month. China’s 45 ports reached 21.642 million tons, a decrease of 1.208 million tons from the previous month. The total arrival volume of the six northern ports was 9.315 million tons, a decrease of 797,000 tons from the previous month.

On the demand side, due to the recovery of real estate policies, consumption of building materials has also rebounded, but the overall strength is weak, and the off-season characteristics are difficult to change. In addition to the current strict production restrictions in Tangshan, the average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills last week was 1.987 million tons, a month-on-month drop of 18,100 tons and a new low. The overall consumption of iron ore is relatively weak, but the market still expects steel mills to resume production, and it remains to be seen whether the steel mills can resume production smoothly.

On the whole, the fundamentals of iron ore have not changed much at present, and the pattern of stable supply and weaker demand similar to the previous period is still maintained. Affected by the stricter production restrictions in Tangshan, the average daily molten iron output of steel mills reached a new low. Recently, multiple macroeconomic policies such as the central bank's overall RRR cut and "steady growth" have boosted market confidence, and market optimism has revived. Coupled with the expected resumption of production by steel mills, iron ore prices have rebounded. However, considering that the current ore shipments are relatively stable, and downstream steel mills' production-restricted policies have affected the production capacity that is difficult to release, resulting in continued accumulation of iron ore inventories, it is expected that iron ore will maintain wide fluctuations in the short term.

Strategies:

Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. Real estate related policies

2. Overseas mining plan

3. Limited production of steel mills

Rubber: Raw material prices rebounded slightly.

On December 13, the most-active RU contract closed at 14760 (+270) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13025 (+150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1110 yuan/ton (-120); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 95934 (-8) lots, the short position was 138422 (-1832) lots, and the net short position was 42488 (-1824) lots.

On December 13, the most-active NR contract closed at 11470 (+170) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,750 (-25) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,740 (-45) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,780 (-20) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -246 (-40) yuan/ton.

As of December 10: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 215,861 (+6578) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 175,510 (+20980) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 55 (0), cup lump 47.75 (+0.55), latex 52.5 (0), RSS3 58.36 (+0.81).

As of December 9, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 64.26% (+1.28%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 63.77% (+1.6%).

Opinion: Driven by the market atmosphere, the price of rubber continued to rebound slightly yesterday. With the reduction of rain in Thailand's main producing areas last week, the price of raw materials has dropped significantly, which has weakened the support of rubber costs last week. Coupled with the widening of the spread between futures and spot prices, the pressure of arbitrage orders makes futures prices fall. This week, with the recovery of the domestic macro atmosphere and the lower support of domestic raw material prices, the price of rubber will stop falling and rebound. It is expected that the price will continue to rebound. However, due to the insipid demand performance and the accumulated pressure on the finished product inventory of tire factories, the upward driving force is insufficient, and long orders need to be held cautiously.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks:

1. Epidemic recurring

2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen

3. Weak demand

Crude oil: No substantial progress has been made in the Iranian nuclear talks.

With the release of more information, the characteristics of Omi Keron virus are more inclined to be highly infectious, higher immune escape, and lower severe mortality. The possibility of re-blocking within the world's major economies is low, and the market's previous concerns have eased. From the actual data point of view, whether it is the global traffic congestion index or the number of global flights and other high-frequency indicators, none of them have experienced a sharp decline due to the Omi Keron virus, and more of them are at a high level or stagnant in growth. Omi Keron’s impact on real-world oil consumption is not significant or has not yet been fully reflected. But even so, the crude oil market in the first quarter of next year will still enter a cycle of accumulating inventory. Judging from the current inter-month spread and spot premiums and discounts, they all show the weakness of the current spot market. Although virus concerns have eased and Iran’s nuclear talks have fallen into a deadlock, the room for a rebound in current oil prices is still limited.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk:

1. Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

Copper: Inflation is high, but copper prices are still fluctuating.

View:

On the macro front, the latest consumer survey by the New York Fed shows that US consumers’ inflation expectations for the next year have risen to a new high of 6%. In addition, three-year inflation expectations have fallen for the first time since June, reaching 4%, mainly driven by the expectations of respondents without a college degree. However, both the short-term and the long-term, the level of uncertainty about inflation is rising, and both have reached record highs. With the current high level of inflation, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's acceleration of monetary policy tightening are also rising. The Fed's interest rate decision will usher in the second half of this week.

From a fundamental point of view, according to SMM, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 69.24%, a decrease of 2.15% from last week. It can be seen that downstream demand has weakened at the end of the year. On the one hand, near the end of the year, whether it is a downstream cable factory or a copper rod company, they will choose to control capital risks and appropriately reduce the amount of orders. Therefore, the willingness to purchase before New Year's Day will be suppressed to a certain extent. On the other hand, downstream consumption does show signs of weakening. As the north turns cold, orders from engineering and real estate terminals continue to decline, and demand enters the seasonal off-season around the Spring Festival. In addition, due to environmental protection issues during the Winter Olympics in Ningjin, some small wire and cable factories have restricted production or stopped production recently. In terms of copper scrap, the price difference between refined copper and copper scrap remained below a reasonable price difference this week, supporting refined copper consumption. In terms of inventory, LME accumulated inventory weekly from 3,425 tons to 81,775 tons, and SHFE destocked weekly from 1,058 tons to 6,331 tons. The social warehouses have accumulated stocks of 7,400 to 90,100 tons on a weekly basis, and the bonded areas have destocked from 8,300 to 175,200 tons on a weekly basis. In terms of imports, this week's import loss on the 01 contract remained at around 300 yuan/ton, while the spot import profit window was open. However, near the end of the year, many traders said that the annual trade indicators have been reached. In addition, the issue of delayed shipping schedules has continued to appear recently, which has also inhibited the enthusiasm of spot trading.

On the whole, overseas macro uncertainties have increased. Fundamentally, the disturbance at the mine end has increased. Major ports in northern China were still affected to varying degrees under the interference of the epidemic, and the TC index declined significantly in November. At the smelting end, the national power curtailment has basically ended. However, due to the interference from the mine and the decline in the price of sulfuric acid, the production enthusiasm of the smelter is inhibited, and the output of electrolytic copper in November is difficult to return to the high level of the second quarter. With regard to scrap copper, the decline in copper prices has driven the spread between refined copper and scrap to fall below a reasonable range, and the consumption support of scrap copper for refined copper has once again appeared. The consumer side showed better performance in the off-season. The end of power rationing and the marginal improvement in real estate led to an increase in the PMI of the copper industry in November. As a result of multiple factors, copper prices remain volatile for the time being.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: The energy and chemical sector rebounded, and PTA processing fees rose again.

1. After Zhejiang Petrochemical's new plant was put into production, the total load increase was still slow.

(1) The PX 9 million tons production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company increased the load to 65% to 70%, and the rate was still slow. Zhenhai Petrochemical is currently operating normally, and attention needs to be paid to potential future impacts. Under the background that Zhejiang Petrochemical is under full load, the accumulation rate of Asian PX inventory in December-January is still slow, and PX processing fees are expected to be compressed.

2. The Zhenhai epidemic has caused Yisheng New Materials to reduce production load expectations.

(1) Due to the epidemic, the 3.6 million tons of Yisheng New Materials plant reduced the production load to 40-50%, and there are expectations for further reduction of the production load and implementation of maintenance. PTA processing fees continue to be strong.

3. The East China epidemic also has an expected impact on the terminal load.

(1) The Shaoxing epidemic still exists, and the terminal printing and dyeing load is affected.

Balance sheet outlook: terminal load reduction leads to polyester reduction in load expectations. In the context of the full implementation of the PTA factory overhaul, it is expected that the inventory will be slightly destocked in December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude; At present, PTA processing fees have rebounded to a short-term high, with limited space below. PX Zhejiang Petrochemical's new production capacity has also suppressed processing fees to a low level.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA plant maintenance progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿石：现实与预期碰撞，铁矿维持震荡

观点与逻辑：

受宏观经济政策和钢厂复产预期影响，周一铁矿期货价格强势上涨，近月合约涨幅大于远月合约，铁矿2205合约收于668.5元/吨，较上一交易日上涨32元/吨，涨幅5.03%，日增仓36713手。现货方面，昨天铁矿现货报价也普遍上涨，进口港全天累计上涨20-35元/吨，青岛港进口矿价格上涨25-30元/吨，天津港PB粉735-740元/吨。13日全国主港铁矿累计成交132.5万吨，环比上涨14.2%。

供应方面，目前铁矿供给端表现较为宽松，铁矿发运较为稳定，港口库存维持高位。Mysteel统计新口径澳大利亚巴西铁矿发运总量2252.8万吨，环比减少537.5万吨；其中澳大利亚发往中国量1408.3万吨，环比减少183.6万吨；中国45港到港总量2164.2万吨，环比减少120.8万吨；北方六港到港总量为931.5万吨，环比减少79.7万吨。

需求方面，受地产政策回暖影响，建材消费也有所回升，但整体力度较弱，淡季特征难改，叠加目前唐山限产严格，上周247家钢厂日均铁水产量198.7万吨，环比下降1.81万吨，再创新低，铁矿整体消费较弱，但目前市场对于钢厂仍有复产预期，钢厂是否能顺利复产还有待观察。

总体来看，目前铁矿基本面没有太大变化，依旧维持前期的供应平稳，需求较弱格局，受唐山限产趋严影响，钢厂日均铁水产量再创新低。近期央行全面降准、“稳增长”等多重宏观经济政策提振市场信心，市场乐观情绪复燃，叠加钢厂复产预计，铁矿价格有所反弹，但考虑到目前矿发运较为平稳，下游钢厂又受限产政策影响产能难以释放，导致铁矿库存持续累积，预计短期铁矿维持宽幅震荡。

策略：

单边：震荡偏强

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：房地产相关政策，钢厂限产，建材钢库存，海外矿山开采计划等。

橡胶：原料价格小幅回升

13号，RU主力收盘14760（+270）元/吨，混合胶报价13025元/吨（+150），主力合约基差-1110元/吨（-120）；前二十主力多头持仓95934（-8），空头持仓138422（-1832），净空持仓42488（-1824）。

13号，NR主力收盘价11470（+170）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1750（-25）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1740美元/吨（-45），印尼标胶1780（-20）美元/吨。主力合约基差-246（-40）元/吨。

截至12月10日：交易所总库存215861（+6578），交易所仓单75510（+20980）。

原料：生胶片55（0），杯胶47.75（+0.55），胶水52.5（0），烟片58.36（+0.81）。

截止12月9日，国内全钢胎开工率为64.26%（+1.28%），国内半钢胎开工率为63.77%(+1.6%）。

观点：在市场氛围推动下，昨天胶价延续小幅反弹格局。随着上周泰国主产区雨水减少后，原料价格明显回落，带来上周橡胶成本端支撑削弱，叠加期现价差拉大后，套利盘的压力使得期货价格下行。本周随着国内宏观氛围的回暖，以及国内原料价格的下方支撑，带来胶价止跌反弹，预计价格有望继续反弹，但因需求表现一般，以及轮胎厂成品库存累计压力重现，向上驱动力量不足，多单谨慎持有。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：疫情反复，期现价差持续拉大，需求示弱等。

原油：伊朗核谈仍未有实质性进展

随着更多信息的发布，奥密克戎病毒的特点更加倾向于高传染性、较高的免疫逃逸性以及较低的重症致死率，全球主要经济体内部出现再度封锁的可能性不大，市场此前的担忧出现缓和，而从现实的数据来看，近期不管是全球交通拥堵指数还是全球航班数量等高频指标，均没有因为奥密克戎病毒出现大幅下降，更多是处于高位或者增长停滞，奥密克戎对现实世界的石油消费冲击并不显著或者尚未完全体现。但即便如此，明年一季度的原油市场仍将进入到累库周期，从目前月差还有实货升贴水的情况来看，均显示了当前现货市场的疲软，虽然病毒担忧有所缓和叠加伊朗核谈陷入僵局，但当前油价的反弹空间依然有限。

策略：中性，行情走势偏震荡

风险：中东地缘政治风险

铜：通胀水平高企 但铜价仍陷震荡格局

观点：

宏观方面，昨日据金十讯，纽约联储最新消费者调查显示，美国消费者对未来一年的通胀预期升至6%的新高。此外，三年通胀预期自6月以来首次下降，达到4%，主要是受到无大学学历受访者的预期推动。然而，无论是短期还是长期，通胀的不确定性水平都在上升，并且都达到了历史新高。而在目前通胀水平居高不下的情况下，市场对于美联储加快收紧货币政策的预期也在不断升温。本周后半周将会迎来美联储利率决议。

基本面来看，据SMM，精铜杆企业开工率为69.24%，较上周减少2.15%。可以看到，年末下游需求有所转弱，一方面，临近年末，无论是下游线缆厂还是铜杆企业，都会选择控制资金风险，适当减少接单量，因此元旦前采购意愿将受到一定的抑制；另一方面，下游消费确实有走弱的迹象。随着北方转冷，来自工程、房地产终端的订单持续转淡，需求进入春节前后的季节性淡季。另外，近期宁晋地区因冬奥会环保问题，部分小型线缆厂出现限产、停产的现象。废铜方面，本周精废价差维持在合理价差下方，对精铜消费存在支撑。库存方面，LME周度累库3425吨至81775吨，SHFE周度去库1058吨至6331吨。社库周度累库0.74万吨至9.01万吨，保税区周度去库0.83万吨至17.52万吨。进口方面，从比价上来看，本周对01合约进口亏损维持在300元/吨左右，而现货进口盈利窗口是打开状态，叠加外盘back结构大幅收窄，少量需求集中在仓单及近期到港提单上。但是，临近年末多家贸易商表示全年贸易指标已经达成，近期忙于年末清算，参与现货贸易意愿明显减弱。且近期船期延后问题不断出现，也抑制了现货买卖的积极性。

总的来看，海外宏观不确定性加大。基本面上，矿端扰动增加，中国北方各重要口岸在疫情干扰下依旧不同程度受到影响，11月TC指数下行明显。冶炼端，全国限电基本结束，但受矿端干扰及硫酸价格下降抑制冶炼厂生产积极性，11月电解铜产量难回二季度高位。废铜方面，铜价下行，带动精废价差走弱回落至合理区间下方，废铜对于精铜的消费支撑再次显现。消费端呈现淡季不淡，限电结束叠加房地产边际改善，11月铜行业PMI有所上升。故此多重因素影响错综，铜价暂时仍维持震荡格局。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.疫情风险加剧

PTA：能化板块反弹，PTA加工费再度上涨

一、浙石化新装置投产后，总负荷提升仍慢

（1）浙石化PX900万吨提负至65%至70%，提负仍偏慢；中金和镇海石化目前正常运行，关注后续潜在影响。浙石化未满负荷背景下，亚洲PX12-1月累库速率仍偏慢，PX加工费预期压缩到位。

二、镇海疫情导致逸盛新材料有降负检修预期

（1）疫情原因，逸盛新材料360万吨装置降负至4-5成，后续有进一步降负检修预期。PTA加工费持续偏强。周频PTA库存兑现去库。

三、华东疫情同样对终端负荷亦有预期影响

（1）绍兴疫情仍存，终端印染负荷受影响。

平衡表展望：终端降负导致的聚酯降负预期，PTA工厂检修预期全兑现背景下，12月预期小幅去库。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望，目前PTA加工费反弹至短期稍高位，下方空间有限，PX浙石化新增产能压制加工费亦已到低位。（2）跨期套利：观望。

风险：原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂检修兑现进度，浙石化PX新装置提负进度，聚酯工厂联合减产进度。