Iron Ore: Trading sentiment weakened, and iron ore remained volatile.

Viewpoint and logic:

Yesterday, iron ore futures prices remained volatile. The iron ore 2205 contract closed at 650.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore dropped slightly in the afternoon, falling 5-15 yuan/ton throughout the day. Qingdao Port PB fines was 715 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton. Tianjin Port PB fines was 735-740 yuan/ton, basically the same as yesterday. On the 14th, a total of 1.005 million tons of iron ore in major ports nationwide were traded, down 24.2% from the previous month, and overall trading sentiment weakened.

The National Development and Reform Commission again proposed to ensure the supply of bulk commodity materials and stabilize prices, and proposed that it will vigorously increase the effective supply of bulk raw materials in the market and flexibly use national reserves to carry out market adjustments. At present, the supply side of iron ore is relatively loose, the delivery of iron ore is relatively stable, and the port inventory remains high. On the demand side, due to the recovery of real estate policies, consumption of building materials has also rebounded, but the overall strength is weak, and the off-season characteristics are difficult to change. However, with the completion of the crude steel reduction policy, there are signs of steel mills resuming production in many places. In addition, the current profitability of the steel mills is relatively good, and the market expects the steel mills to resume production. If steel mills can resume production smoothly, iron ore consumption is expected to pick up.

On the whole, the recent central bank's comprehensive reduction of RRR and "steady growth" and other multiple macroeconomic policies have boosted market confidence, and market optimism has revived. Coupled with the expected resumption of production by steel mills, iron ore prices have rebounded. However, considering that iron ore shipments are relatively stable at present, and downstream steel mills' production-restricted policies have affected the production capacity difficult to release, the iron ore inventory continues to accumulate. And the Winter Olympics is coming soon, and environmental protection production restrictions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are becoming stricter. The short-term iron ore is expected to maintain wide fluctuations.

Strategies:

Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. Real estate related policies

2. Overseas mining plan

3. Limited production of steel mills

Rubber: The decline in port inventory has expanded.

On December 14, the most-active RU contract closed at 14750 (-10) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13025 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1150 yuan/ton (-40); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 96138 (+204) lots, the short position was 138422 () lots, and the net short position was 45123 (+2635) lots.

On December 14, the most-active NR contract closed at 11490 (+20) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,772.5 (-2.5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,765 (+5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,785 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -251 (+13) yuan/ton.

As of December 10: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 215,861 (+6578) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 175,510 (+20980) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 55.4 (+0.4), cup lump 47.90 (+0.15), latex 53 (+0.5), RSS3 59.07 (+0.71).

As of December 9, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 64.26% (+1.28%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 63.77% (+1.6%).

Opinion: As of last week, the domestic port inventory continued to decline, and the decline was significantly larger than the previous two weeks, mainly due to the increase in outbound, but due to the impact of shipping schedules, the inbound volume remained unchanged and did not increase. The continuous destocking of domestic port inventory has given support to the rubber price, which made the rubber price continue to fluctuate at high levels yesterday. This week, with the recovery of the domestic macro atmosphere and the lower support of domestic raw material prices, the price of rubber has stopped falling and rebounded. The price is expected to remain strong and volatile. However, due to the insipid demand performance and the accumulated pressure on the finished product inventory of tire factories, the upward driving force is insufficient, and long orders need to be held cautiously.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks:

1. Epidemic recurring

2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen

3. Weak demand

Crude oil: The United States will start the auction of strategic reserve oil this week.

The US Department of Energy announced that it will start the auction of strategic reserve oil this week, with a volume of 18 million barrels. This is consistent with the previously announced information that 18 million barrels of oil will be auctioned at the end of the year, and the remaining 32 million barrels of oil will be sold next year. However, this release of reserves belongs to inventory rotation rather than emergency release, which requires future repurchase. From the perspective of refiners, American refineries will try to reduce crude oil inventories at the end of the year due to accounting standards and avoidance of inventory taxes at the end of the year, especially in years when oil prices are rising. This release of reserves may involve non-US buyers. For US refineries, although the demand for crude oil purchases at the end of the year is low, if the reserve price is appropriate, it means that the refinery will reduce crude oil imports and switch to SPR crude oil. In the short term, SPR has a suppressive effect on the near-end inter-month spread of WTI crude oil and the WTI-Brent spread.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

Copper: The interest rate meeting is just around the corner, the US dollar is rising, and copper prices are under pressure.

View:

On the macro front, in the early hours of Wednesday morning Beijing time, the U.S. Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling with 50 votes in favor and 49 votes against it. The U.S. debt ceiling bill will be sent to the House of Representatives for a vote. If passed by the House of Representatives again, the US federal debt ceiling will be raised from the current US$28.9 trillion to US$31.4 trillion. In terms of monetary policy, Fed Chairman Powell has previously stated that he may announce the acceleration of the termination of the bond purchase plan at the policy meeting this week, ending in March instead of the original June, paving the way for interest rates to rise from near zero. This also made the US dollar higher yesterday, and non-ferrous metals and even precious metals were relatively under pressure.

From a fundamental point of view, the current premiums and discounts continue to show a downward trend, showing the weakness of the consumer side and the loosening of supply. Previously, according to SMM, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 69.24%, a decrease of 2.15% from last week. It can be seen that downstream demand has weakened at the end of the year. On the one hand, near the end of the year, both downstream cable factories and copper rod companies will choose to control capital risks and appropriately reduce the number of orders. Therefore, the willingness to purchase before New Year's Day will be suppressed to a certain extent. On the other hand, downstream consumption does show signs of weakening. As the north turns cold, orders from engineering and real estate terminals continue to decline, and demand enters the seasonal off-season around the Spring Festival. In addition, due to environmental protection issues during the Winter Olympics in Ningjin, some small wire and cable factories have restricted production or stopped production recently. In terms of copper scrap, the spread between refined copper and copper scrap remained below a reasonable range this week, supporting refined copper consumption. In terms of inventory, LME has accumulated 3,425 tons to 81,775 tons on a weekly basis, and SHFE has destocked 1,058 tons to 6,331 tons on a weekly basis. The social warehouses have accumulated stocks of 7,400 to 90,100 tons on a weekly basis, and the bonded areas have destocked from 8,300 to 175,200 tons on a weekly basis. In terms of imports, this week's import loss on the 01 contract remained at around 300 yuan/ton, while the spot import profit window was open. However, near the end of the year, many traders said that the annual trade targets have been reached. As they are busy with year-end liquidation recently, their willingness to participate in spot trade has significantly weakened. In addition, the issue of delayed shipping schedules has continued to appear recently, which has also inhibited the enthusiasm of spot trading.

On the whole, overseas macro uncertainties have increased. Fundamentally, the disturbance at the mine end has increased. Major ports in northern China were still affected to varying degrees under the interference of the epidemic, and the TC index declined significantly in November. At the smelting end, the national power curtailment has basically ended. However, due to the interference from the mine and the decline in the price of sulfuric acid, the production enthusiasm of the smelter is inhibited, and the output of electrolytic copper in November is difficult to return to the high level of the second quarter. With regard to scrap copper, the decline in copper prices has driven the spread between refined copper and scrap to fall below a reasonable range, and the consumption support of scrap copper for refined copper has once again appeared. The consumer side showed better performance in the off-season. The end of power rationing and the marginal improvement in real estate led to an increase in the PMI of the copper industry in November. As a result of multiple factors, copper prices remain volatile for the time being.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: The epidemic further affected the start of downstream operations.

1. After Zhejiang Petrochemical's new plant was put into production, the total load increase was still slow.

(1) The PX 9 million tons production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company increased the load to 65% to 70%, and the rate was still slow. Zhenhai Petrochemical is currently operating normally, and attention needs to be paid to potential future impacts. Under the background that Zhejiang Petrochemical is under full load, the accumulation rate of Asian PX inventory in December-January is still slow, and PX processing fees are expected to be compressed.

2. PTA operating rate is expected to increase.

(1) The previous epidemic caused the 3.6 million tons of Yisheng New Materials plant to reduce the production load to 50%. Later, it was heard that the issue of the pass was gradually resolved, and there is an expectation of increasing the load.

3. The impact of the East China epidemic has led to expectations of reducing the load on polyester.

(1) Under the influence of the epidemic, there are plans to reduce production of polyester plants in Ningbo.

(2) The Shaoxing epidemic still exists, and the terminal printing and dyeing load is affected.

Balance sheet outlook: terminal load reduction leads to polyester reduction in load expectations. In the context of the full implementation of the PTA factory overhaul, it is expected that the inventory will be slightly destocked or flattened in December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude; At present, PTA processing fees have rebounded to a short-term high, with limited space below. PX Zhejiang Petrochemical's new production capacity has also suppressed processing fees to a low level.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA plant maintenance progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿石：交投情绪转弱，铁矿维持震荡

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿期货价格维持震荡，铁矿2205合约收于650.5元/吨，较上一交易日下跌4元/吨，跌幅0.61%。现货方面，昨日进口铁矿价格午后小幅下跌，全天累跌5-15元/吨，青岛港PB粉715元/吨，下跌13元/吨；天津港PB粉735-740元/吨，与昨日基本持平。14日全国主港铁矿累计成交100.5万吨，环比下降24.2%，整体交投情绪转弱。

发改委再提大宗商品材料保供稳价，并提出将大力增加大宗原材料市场有效供给，灵活运用国家储备开展市场调节。目前铁矿供给端表现较为宽松，铁矿发运较为稳定，港口库存维持高位。需求方面，受地产政策回暖影响，建材消费也有所回升，但整体力度较弱，淡季特征难改。不过，随着粗钢压减政策的完成，多地有钢厂复产迹象，叠加钢厂目前利润较好，市场对于钢厂复产的预期增强。若钢厂能顺利复产，铁矿消费有望回升。

总体来看，近期央行全面降准、“稳增长”等多重宏观经济政策提振市场信心，市场乐观情绪复燃，叠加钢厂复产预计，铁矿价格有所反弹，但考虑到目前铁矿发运较为平稳，下游钢厂又受限产政策影响产能难以释放，铁矿库存持续累积，且冬奥会即将到来，京津冀地区环保限产趋严，预计短期铁矿维持宽幅震荡。

策略：

单边：震荡偏强

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：房地产相关政策，钢厂限产，建材钢库存，海外矿山开采计划等。

橡胶：港口库存降幅扩大

14号，RU主力收盘14750（-10）元/吨，混合胶报价13025元/吨（0），主力合约基差-1150元/吨（-40）；前二十主力多头持仓96138（+204），空头持仓141261（+2839），净空持仓45123（+2635）。

14号，NR主力收盘价11490（+20）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1772.5（-2.5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1765美元/吨（+5），印尼标胶1785（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-251（+13）元/吨。

截至12月10日：交易所总库存215861（+6578），交易所仓单75510（+20980）。

原料：生胶片55.4（+0.4），杯胶47.90（+0.15），胶水53（+0.5），烟片59.07（+0.71）。

截止12月9日，国内全钢胎开工率为64.26%（+1.28%），国内半钢胎开工率为63.77%(+1.6%）。

观点：截至上周国内港口库存继续下降，且降幅较前两周明显扩大，主要是出库增加，而因船期的影响，入库仍维持，并没有增量。国内港口库存的持续去化，给与胶价下方支撑，昨天胶价延续偏强震荡。本周随着国内宏观氛围的回暖，以及国内原料价格的下方支撑，带来胶价止跌反弹，预计价格有望维持偏强震荡，但因需求表现一般，以及轮胎厂成品库存累计压力重现，向上驱动力量不足，多单谨慎持有。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：疫情反复，期现价差持续拉大，需求示弱等。

原油：美国将于本周开始战储石油拍卖

美国能源部宣布将于本周开始战储石油的拍卖，数量在1800万桶，这与此前公布的信息一致，即1800万桶石油在年底拍卖，而剩余的3200万桶石油将在明年出售，但本次抛储属于轮库而非紧急释放，需要未来进行回购，而从炼厂的角度来看，美国炼厂在年底因为会计准则和规避库存税等考虑，会尽量在年底压低原油库存，尤其是在油价上涨的年份，本次抛储可能有非美国买家参与，而对于美国炼厂而言，虽然年底对原油采购的需求偏低，但如果抛储价格合适，意味着炼厂将减少原油进口转向SPR原油，短期来看，SPR对WTI原油的近端月差以及WTI-Brent价差存在压制作用。

策略：中性，行情走势偏震荡

风险：中东地缘政治风险

铜：议息会议在即美元走高 铜价承压

观点：

宏观方面，据金十讯，北京时间周三凌晨，美国参议院以50票赞成、49票反对通过提高债务上限的法案。美国提高债务上限法案将送往众议院表决，如再获得众议院通过，美国联邦债务上限将从目前的28.9万亿美元提高到31.4万亿美元。而在货币政策方面，此前美联储主席鲍威尔已经表态，可能在本周政策会议上宣布加速终止购债计划，提前在3月而非原定的6月结束，为利率从近零水准调高铺路，这也使得昨日美元走高，有色乃至贵金属则相对承压。

基本面来看，目前升贴水持续呈现走低的态势，显现出消费端的无力以及供应的趋松。此前，据SMM，精铜杆企业开工率为69.24%，较上周减少2.15%。可以看到，年末下游需求有所转弱，一方面，临近年末，无论是下游线缆厂还是铜杆企业，都会选择控制资金风险，适当减少接单量，因此元旦前采购意愿将受到一定的抑制；另一方面，下游消费确实有走弱的迹象。随着北方转冷，来自工程、房地产终端的订单持续转淡，需求进入春节前后的季节性淡季。另外，近期宁晋地区因冬奥会环保问题，部分小型线缆厂出现限产、停产的现象。废铜方面，本周精废价差维持在合理价差下方，对精铜消费存在支撑。库存方面，LME周度累库3425吨至81775吨，SHFE周度去库1058吨至6331吨。社库周度累库0.74万吨至9.01万吨，保税区周度去库0.83万吨至17.52万吨。进口方面，从比价上来看，本周对01合约进口亏损维持在300元/吨左右，而现货进口盈利窗口是打开状态，叠加外盘back结构大幅收窄，少量需求集中在仓单及近期到港提单上。但是，临近年末多家贸易商表示全年贸易指标已经达成，近期忙于年末清算，参与现货贸易意愿明显减弱。且近期船期延后问题不断出现，也抑制了现货买卖的积极性。

总的来看，海外宏观不确定性加大。基本面上，矿端扰动增加，中国北方各重要口岸在疫情干扰下依旧不同程度受到影响，11月TC指数下行明显。冶炼端，全国限电基本结束，但受矿端干扰及硫酸价格下降抑制冶炼厂生产积极性，11月电解铜产量难回二季度高位。废铜方面，铜价下行，带动精废价差走弱回落至合理区间下方，废铜对于精铜的消费支撑再次显现。消费端呈现淡季不淡，限电结束叠加房地产边际改善，11月铜行业PMI有所上升，但美联储利率决议在即，市场不确定性较大。故此多重因素影响错综，铜价暂时仍维持震荡格局。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.疫情风险加剧

PTA：疫情进一步影响下游开工

一、浙石化新装置投产后，总负荷提升仍慢

（1）浙石化PX900万吨提负至65%至70%，提负仍偏慢；中金和镇海石化目前正常运行，关注后续潜在影响。浙石化未满负荷背景下，亚洲PX12-1月累库速率仍偏慢，PX加工费预期压缩到位。

二、PTA开工有提升预期

（1）此前疫情原因导致逸盛新材料360万吨装置降负至5成，后续听闻通行证问题逐步解决，有提负预期。

三、华东疫情对聚酯亦有降负预期

（1）疫情影响下，宁波地区聚酯装置有降负减产计划。（2）绍兴疫情仍存，终端印染负荷受影响。

平衡表展望：终端降负导致的聚酯降负预期，PTA工厂检修预期全兑现背景下，12月预期小幅去库或走平。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望，PTA加工费高位回落预期区间盘整，PX浙石化新增产能压制加工费亦已到低位。（2）跨期套利：观望。

风险：原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂检修兑现进度，浙石化PX新装置提负进度，聚酯工厂联合减产进度。