Iron Ore: The black series have mixed ups and downs, and the iron ore is in a long-short game.
Viewpoint and logic:
Yesterday, iron ore futures prices remained volatile. The iron ore 2205 contract closed at 649 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan/ton or 2.03% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore went up and down yesterday. PB fines at Qingdao Port is 120 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. Tianjin Port PB fines was 735 yuan/ton, basically the same as yesterday. On the 15th, a total of 1.19 million tons of iron ore in major ports nationwide were traded, an increase of 18.4% from the previous month.
The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics Fu Linghui answered reporters at the State Council press conference held on the 15th, saying that the impact of the Winter Olympics on the production of related enterprises is generally limited. From the perspective of iron ore supply, the current iron ore supply side is relatively loose, iron ore shipments are relatively stable, and port inventory remains high. On the demand side, statistics released yesterday by the Bureau of Statistics showed that China's average daily crude steel output in November was 2.31 million tons, down 0.6% from the previous month. The average daily output of pig iron was 2.058 million tons, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous month. The average daily output of steel was 3.368 million tons, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous month. Affected by the recovery of real estate policies, consumption of building materials has also rebounded, but the overall strength is weak, and it is difficult to change the characteristics of the off-season. However, with the completion of the crude steel reduction policy, there are signs of steel mills resuming production in many places. In addition, the current profits of the steel mills are relatively good, and the market's expectations for the resumption of production of the steel mills have increased.
Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks:
1. Real estate related policies
2. Overseas mining plan
3. Limited production of steel mills
Rubber: Rubber prices fluctuated, and the spread between futures and spot prices narrowed slightly.
On December 15, the most-active RU contract closed at 14605 (-145) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12925 (-100) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -930 yuan/ton (-40); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 95384 (-754) lots, the short position was 141961 (+700) lots, and the net short position was 46577 (+1454) lots.
On December 15, the most-active NR contract closed at 11280 (-210) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,770 (-2.5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,765 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,785 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -34 (+217) yuan/ton.
As of December 10: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 215,861 (+6578) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 175,510 (+20980) tons.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 55.4 (0), cup lump 47.90 (0), latex 53.2 (+0.2), RSS3 59.09 (+0.02).
As of December 9, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 64.26% (+1.28%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 63.77% (+1.6%).
Opinion: The recent RU basis has been relatively high year-on-year, making the market under hedging pressure, which may be the main force suppressing the market. As market prices fell, the spread between futures and spot prices narrowed yesterday. At the same time, we are seeing continued destocking of domestic port inventory. However, NR showed signs of weakness this week, which may be related to the recent rebound of finished product inventories in domestic tire factories, and the demand side is still weak. On the one hand, rubber prices are supported on the cost side due to the high prices of raw materials at home and abroad. Coupled with the continued decline in domestic port inventory, there is a strong support for the lower rubber prices. However, the demand remains weak and the upward driving force is limited. In the short term, it will swing more with the surrounding atmosphere.
1. Epidemic recurring
2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen
3. Weak demand
Crude oil: The epidemic and the Winter Olympics have curbed China's crude oil buying interest in the near future.
Recently, the near-end inter-month spread of crude oil and the price premiums and discounts of physical goods have continued to weaken, mainly due to the market's concerns about China's demand. On the one hand, due to the Winter Olympics in February, refineries in the Bohai Rim areas such as Shandong and Hebei may be required to reduce their operating loads. At present, local refineries have very weak demand for cargo in February. On the other hand, the recent epidemic in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has also had a greater impact on refinery production, including Zhenhai Refinery, the largest refinery in its main operations, whose installations and logistics are affected by traffic control, and the operating rate is expected to decline. The epidemic prevention measures in Jiangsu and Zhejiang due to the epidemic also have an impact on local refined oil consumption, and the impact will continue until March next year. Therefore, in the short term, China's crude oil buying interest is very weak, which has suppressed the recent crude oil inter-month spread. We believe that the current situation may continue until January, and China's buying interest may not see a significant recovery until after the Spring Festival.
Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East
Copper: The Federal Reserve is speeding up its reduction in bond purchases, and copper prices are temporarily under pressure.
On the macro front, at 3 o'clock in the morning Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced the December Monetary Policy Committee resolution statement. That is, while maintaining the 0%-0.25% policy interest rate unchanged, as expected, the monthly rate of reducing the bond purchase plan will be doubled to 30 billion U.S. dollars. The dot plot is expected to raise interest rates 3 times in 2022 and 3 times in 2023. This is undoubtedly in response to the recent high level of inflation. However, since Fed Chairman Powell has already expressed his attitude that the monetary tightening will accelerate, the market may have been psychologically prepared for this. The trend of the US dollar yesterday did not show an obvious upside, and even a slight decline. However, the non-ferrous products' previous expectations for the Fed to accelerate taper seem to be inadequate, so copper prices have fallen relatively significantly in the past two days.
From a fundamental point of view, the current premiums and discounts continue to show a downward trend, showing the weakness of the consumer side and the loosening of supply. Previously, according to SMM, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 69.24%, a decrease of 2.15% from last week. It can be seen that downstream demand has weakened at the end of the year. On the one hand, near the end of the year, both downstream cable factories and copper rod companies will choose to control capital risks and appropriately reduce the number of orders. Therefore, the willingness to purchase before New Year's Day will be suppressed to a certain extent. On the other hand, downstream consumption does show signs of weakening. As the north turns cold, orders from engineering and real estate terminals continue to decline, and demand enters the seasonal off-season around the Spring Festival. In addition, due to environmental protection issues during the Winter Olympics in Ningjin, some small wire and cable factories have restricted production or stopped production recently. In terms of copper scrap, the spread between refined copper and copper scrap remained below a reasonable range this week, supporting refined copper consumption. In terms of inventory, LME has accumulated 3,425 tons to 81,775 tons on a weekly basis, and SHFE has destocked 1,058 tons to 6,331 tons on a weekly basis. The social warehouses have accumulated stocks of 7,400 to 90,100 tons on a weekly basis, and the bonded areas have destocked from 8,300 to 175,200 tons on a weekly basis. In terms of imports, this week's import loss on the 01 contract remained at around 300 yuan/ton, while the spot import profit window was open. However, near the end of the year, many traders said that the annual trade targets have been reached. As they are busy with year-end liquidation recently, their willingness to participate in spot trade has significantly weakened. In addition, the issue of delayed shipping schedules has continued to appear recently, which has also inhibited the enthusiasm of spot trading.
On the whole, overseas macro uncertainties have increased. Fundamentally, the disturbance at the mine end has increased. Major ports in northern China were still affected to varying degrees under the interference of the epidemic, and the TC index declined significantly in November. At the smelting end, the national power curtailment has basically ended. However, due to the interference from the mine and the decline in the price of sulfuric acid, the production enthusiasm of the smelter is inhibited, and the output of electrolytic copper in November is difficult to return to the high level of the second quarter. With regard to scrap copper, the decline in copper prices has driven the spread between refined copper and scrap to fall below a reasonable range, and the consumption support of scrap copper for refined copper has once again appeared. The consumer side showed better performance in the off-season. The end of power rationing and the marginal improvement in real estate led to an increase in the PMI of the copper industry in November. As a result of multiple factors, copper prices remain volatile for the time being.
1. Unilateral: Neutral
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.
PTA: The epidemic has affected the start of downstream operations, and the PTA basis has weakened.
1. After Zhejiang Petrochemical's new plant was put into production, the total load increase was still slow.
(1) The PX 9 million tons production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company increased the load to 65% to 70%, and the rate was still slow. Zhenhai Petrochemical is currently operating normally, and attention needs to be paid to potential future impacts. Under the background that Zhejiang Petrochemical is under full load, the accumulation rate of Asian PX inventory in December-January is still slow, and PX processing fees are expected to be compressed.
2. PTA operating rate is expected to increase.
(1) The previous epidemic caused the 3.6 million tons of Yisheng New Materials plant to reduce the production load to 50%. Later, it was heard that the issue of the pass was gradually resolved, and there is an expectation of increasing the load. In the context of downstream load reduction expectations, the TA basis dropped.
3. The impact of the East China epidemic has led to expectations of reducing the load on polyester.
(1) Under the influence of the epidemic, there are plans to reduce production of polyester plants in Ningbo.
(2) The Shaoxing epidemic still exists, and the terminal printing and dyeing load is affected.
(3) Pay attention to the subsequent production reduction plan of the polyester plant.
Balance sheet outlook: terminal load reduction leads to polyester reduction in load expectations. In the context of the full implementation of the PTA factory overhaul, it is expected that the inventory will be slightly destocked or flattened in December.
(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude; At present, PTA processing fees have rebounded to a short-term high, with limited space below. PX Zhejiang Petrochemical's new production capacity has also suppressed processing fees to a low level.
(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.
Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA plant maintenance progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.
1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
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