Iron Ore: The black series have mixed ups and downs, and the iron ore is in a long-short game.

Viewpoint and logic:

Yesterday, iron ore futures prices remained volatile. The iron ore 2205 contract closed at 649 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan/ton or 2.03% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore went up and down yesterday. PB fines at Qingdao Port is 120 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. Tianjin Port PB fines was 735 yuan/ton, basically the same as yesterday. On the 15th, a total of 1.19 million tons of iron ore in major ports nationwide were traded, an increase of 18.4% from the previous month.

The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics Fu Linghui answered reporters at the State Council press conference held on the 15th, saying that the impact of the Winter Olympics on the production of related enterprises is generally limited. From the perspective of iron ore supply, the current iron ore supply side is relatively loose, iron ore shipments are relatively stable, and port inventory remains high. On the demand side, statistics released yesterday by the Bureau of Statistics showed that China's average daily crude steel output in November was 2.31 million tons, down 0.6% from the previous month. The average daily output of pig iron was 2.058 million tons, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous month. The average daily output of steel was 3.368 million tons, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous month. Affected by the recovery of real estate policies, consumption of building materials has also rebounded, but the overall strength is weak, and it is difficult to change the characteristics of the off-season. However, with the completion of the crude steel reduction policy, there are signs of steel mills resuming production in many places. In addition, the current profits of the steel mills are relatively good, and the market's expectations for the resumption of production of the steel mills have increased.

Strategies:

Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. Real estate related policies

2. Overseas mining plan

3. Limited production of steel mills

Rubber: Rubber prices fluctuated, and the spread between futures and spot prices narrowed slightly.

On December 15, the most-active RU contract closed at 14605 (-145) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12925 (-100) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -930 yuan/ton (-40); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 95384 (-754) lots, the short position was 141961 (+700) lots, and the net short position was 46577 (+1454) lots.

On December 15, the most-active NR contract closed at 11280 (-210) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,770 (-2.5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,765 (0) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,785 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -34 (+217) yuan/ton.

As of December 10: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 215,861 (+6578) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 175,510 (+20980) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 55.4 (0), cup lump 47.90 (0), latex 53.2 (+0.2), RSS3 59.09 (+0.02).

As of December 9, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 64.26% (+1.28%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 63.77% (+1.6%).

Opinion: The recent RU basis has been relatively high year-on-year, making the market under hedging pressure, which may be the main force suppressing the market. As market prices fell, the spread between futures and spot prices narrowed yesterday. At the same time, we are seeing continued destocking of domestic port inventory. However, NR showed signs of weakness this week, which may be related to the recent rebound of finished product inventories in domestic tire factories, and the demand side is still weak. On the one hand, rubber prices are supported on the cost side due to the high prices of raw materials at home and abroad. Coupled with the continued decline in domestic port inventory, there is a strong support for the lower rubber prices. However, the demand remains weak and the upward driving force is limited. In the short term, it will swing more with the surrounding atmosphere.

Strategy: Neutral

Risks:

1. Epidemic recurring

2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen

3. Weak demand

Crude oil: The epidemic and the Winter Olympics have curbed China's crude oil buying interest in the near future.

Recently, the near-end inter-month spread of crude oil and the price premiums and discounts of physical goods have continued to weaken, mainly due to the market's concerns about China's demand. On the one hand, due to the Winter Olympics in February, refineries in the Bohai Rim areas such as Shandong and Hebei may be required to reduce their operating loads. At present, local refineries have very weak demand for cargo in February. On the other hand, the recent epidemic in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has also had a greater impact on refinery production, including Zhenhai Refinery, the largest refinery in its main operations, whose installations and logistics are affected by traffic control, and the operating rate is expected to decline. The epidemic prevention measures in Jiangsu and Zhejiang due to the epidemic also have an impact on local refined oil consumption, and the impact will continue until March next year. Therefore, in the short term, China's crude oil buying interest is very weak, which has suppressed the recent crude oil inter-month spread. We believe that the current situation may continue until January, and China's buying interest may not see a significant recovery until after the Spring Festival.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

Copper: The Federal Reserve is speeding up its reduction in bond purchases, and copper prices are temporarily under pressure.

View:

On the macro front, at 3 o'clock in the morning Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced the December Monetary Policy Committee resolution statement. That is, while maintaining the 0%-0.25% policy interest rate unchanged, as expected, the monthly rate of reducing the bond purchase plan will be doubled to 30 billion U.S. dollars. The dot plot is expected to raise interest rates 3 times in 2022 and 3 times in 2023. This is undoubtedly in response to the recent high level of inflation. However, since Fed Chairman Powell has already expressed his attitude that the monetary tightening will accelerate, the market may have been psychologically prepared for this. The trend of the US dollar yesterday did not show an obvious upside, and even a slight decline. However, the non-ferrous products' previous expectations for the Fed to accelerate taper seem to be inadequate, so copper prices have fallen relatively significantly in the past two days.

From a fundamental point of view, the current premiums and discounts continue to show a downward trend, showing the weakness of the consumer side and the loosening of supply. Previously, according to SMM, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 69.24%, a decrease of 2.15% from last week. It can be seen that downstream demand has weakened at the end of the year. On the one hand, near the end of the year, both downstream cable factories and copper rod companies will choose to control capital risks and appropriately reduce the number of orders. Therefore, the willingness to purchase before New Year's Day will be suppressed to a certain extent. On the other hand, downstream consumption does show signs of weakening. As the north turns cold, orders from engineering and real estate terminals continue to decline, and demand enters the seasonal off-season around the Spring Festival. In addition, due to environmental protection issues during the Winter Olympics in Ningjin, some small wire and cable factories have restricted production or stopped production recently. In terms of copper scrap, the spread between refined copper and copper scrap remained below a reasonable range this week, supporting refined copper consumption. In terms of inventory, LME has accumulated 3,425 tons to 81,775 tons on a weekly basis, and SHFE has destocked 1,058 tons to 6,331 tons on a weekly basis. The social warehouses have accumulated stocks of 7,400 to 90,100 tons on a weekly basis, and the bonded areas have destocked from 8,300 to 175,200 tons on a weekly basis. In terms of imports, this week's import loss on the 01 contract remained at around 300 yuan/ton, while the spot import profit window was open. However, near the end of the year, many traders said that the annual trade targets have been reached. As they are busy with year-end liquidation recently, their willingness to participate in spot trade has significantly weakened. In addition, the issue of delayed shipping schedules has continued to appear recently, which has also inhibited the enthusiasm of spot trading.

On the whole, overseas macro uncertainties have increased. Fundamentally, the disturbance at the mine end has increased. Major ports in northern China were still affected to varying degrees under the interference of the epidemic, and the TC index declined significantly in November. At the smelting end, the national power curtailment has basically ended. However, due to the interference from the mine and the decline in the price of sulfuric acid, the production enthusiasm of the smelter is inhibited, and the output of electrolytic copper in November is difficult to return to the high level of the second quarter. With regard to scrap copper, the decline in copper prices has driven the spread between refined copper and scrap to fall below a reasonable range, and the consumption support of scrap copper for refined copper has once again appeared. The consumer side showed better performance in the off-season. The end of power rationing and the marginal improvement in real estate led to an increase in the PMI of the copper industry in November. As a result of multiple factors, copper prices remain volatile for the time being.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: The epidemic has affected the start of downstream operations, and the PTA basis has weakened.

1. After Zhejiang Petrochemical's new plant was put into production, the total load increase was still slow.

(1) The PX 9 million tons production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company increased the load to 65% to 70%, and the rate was still slow. Zhenhai Petrochemical is currently operating normally, and attention needs to be paid to potential future impacts. Under the background that Zhejiang Petrochemical is under full load, the accumulation rate of Asian PX inventory in December-January is still slow, and PX processing fees are expected to be compressed.

2. PTA operating rate is expected to increase.

(1) The previous epidemic caused the 3.6 million tons of Yisheng New Materials plant to reduce the production load to 50%. Later, it was heard that the issue of the pass was gradually resolved, and there is an expectation of increasing the load. In the context of downstream load reduction expectations, the TA basis dropped.

3. The impact of the East China epidemic has led to expectations of reducing the load on polyester.

(1) Under the influence of the epidemic, there are plans to reduce production of polyester plants in Ningbo.

(2) The Shaoxing epidemic still exists, and the terminal printing and dyeing load is affected.

(3) Pay attention to the subsequent production reduction plan of the polyester plant.

Balance sheet outlook: terminal load reduction leads to polyester reduction in load expectations. In the context of the full implementation of the PTA factory overhaul, it is expected that the inventory will be slightly destocked or flattened in December.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude; At present, PTA processing fees have rebounded to a short-term high, with limited space below. PX Zhejiang Petrochemical's new production capacity has also suppressed processing fees to a low level.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA plant maintenance progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿石：黑色涨跌互现，铁矿多空博弈

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿期货价格维持震荡，铁矿2205合约收于649元/吨，较上一交易日下跌13.5元/吨，跌幅2.03%。现货方面，昨日进口铁矿价格涨跌互现，青岛港PB粉120元/吨，上涨5元/吨；天津港PB粉735元/吨，与昨日基本持平。15日全国主港铁矿累计成交119万吨，环比上涨18.4%。

国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖在15日举行的国务院新闻发布会上答记者问，表示冬奥会对于相关企业生产的影响总的看是有限的。从铁矿的供给来看，目前铁矿供给端表现较为宽松，铁矿发运较为稳定，港口库存维持高位。需求端，统计局昨日公布数据显示，11月份中国粗钢日均产量231.0万吨，环比下降0.6%；生铁日均产量205.8万吨，环比下降1.2%；钢材日均产量336.8万吨，环比下降2.6%。受地产政策回暖影响，建材消费也有所回升，但整体力度较弱，淡季特征难改。不过，随着粗钢压减政策的完成，多地有钢厂复产迹象，叠加钢厂目前利润较好，市场对于钢厂复产的预期增强。

总体来看，近期央行全面降准、“稳增长”等多重宏观经济政策提振市场信心，市场乐观情绪复燃，叠加钢厂复产预计，铁矿价格有所反弹，但考虑到目前铁矿发运较为平稳，下游钢厂又受限产政策影响产能难以释放，铁矿库存持续累积，且冬奥会即将到来，京津冀地区环保限产趋严，预计短期铁矿维持震荡。

策略：

单边：震荡偏强

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：房地产相关政策，钢厂限产，建材钢库存，海外矿山开采计划等。

橡胶：胶价震荡，期现价差小幅缩窄

15号，RU主力收盘14605（-145）元/吨，混合胶报价12925元/吨（-100），主力合约基差-930元/吨（-40）；前二十主力多头持仓95384（-754），空头持仓141961（+700），净空持仓46577（+1454）。

15号，NR主力收盘价11280（-210）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1770（-2.5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1765美元/吨（0），印尼标胶1785（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-34（+217）元/吨。

截至12月10日：交易所总库存215861（+6578），交易所仓单75510（+20980）。

原料：生胶片55.4（0），杯胶47.90（0），胶水53.2（+0.2），烟片59.09（+0.02）。

截止12月9日，国内全钢胎开工率为64.26%（+1.28%），国内半钢胎开工率为63.77%(+1.6%）。

观点：因国内原料增加以及浓乳分流减少，导致今年国内全乳胶增加明显，带来近期RU基差同比偏高位，这也使得盘面的套保压力较大，这或是压制盘面的主要力量，随着盘面价格的回落，昨天期现价差有所缩窄。同时，我们看到国内港口库存的持续去化，但NR本周有走弱迹象，或跟国内轮胎厂近期成品库存重新回升，需求端仍显疲弱状态。胶价一方面因为海内外原料价格偏高，成本端受到支撑，叠加国内港口库存的持续下降，均对胶价下方有较强支撑，但因此需求维持弱势，向上驱动动力有限，短期更多跟随周边氛围摆动。建议短线操作为主。

策略：中性

风险：疫情反复，期现价差持续拉大，需求示弱等。

原油：疫情与冬奥会抑制近期中国原油买兴

近期原油近端月差与实货贴水贴水持续走弱，主要来自市场对于中国需求的担忧，一方面由于2月份的冬奥会，山东、河北等环渤海地区的炼厂可能被要求降低开工负荷，目前地方炼厂对于2月份船货的需求非常疲软，另一方面，近期江浙地区的疫情也对炼厂生产产生较大影响，包括主营中最大的炼厂镇海炼化其装置开工以及物流受到交通管控的影响，预计开工率将出现下降，而江浙地区本身由于疫情导致的防疫措施也对当地的成品油消费产生冲击，且该影响将会持续到明年3月份，因此短期来看，中国原油买兴非常疲软，对近期的原油月差形成压制，目前布伦特原油已经接近平水状态，我们认为目前的这一局面可能持续到1月份，中国买兴可能在春节过后才可能看到显著恢复。

策略：中性，行情走势偏震荡

风险：中东地缘政治风险

铜：美联储加快缩减购债 铜价暂承压

观点：

宏观方面，据金十讯，北京时间周四凌晨3点，美联储公布12月货币政策委员会决议声明，在维持0%-0.25%政策利率不变的情况下，如预期般将每月缩减债券购买计划的速度翻倍至300亿美元，点阵图预计2022年将加息3次，2023年也将加息3次。这无疑是为了应对近期居高不下的通胀水平，不过由于此前美联储主席鲍威尔对于货币紧缩力度将会加快的态度已经有所表达，故此市场或许已经对此有一定心理准备，昨日美元的走势并未出现太过明显的上攻，甚至还有小幅回落的情况。不过有色品种此前对于美联储加快taper的预期似乎计价并不充分，故此近两日铜价回落相对明显。

基本面来看，目前升贴水维持低位，显现出消费端的无力以及供应的趋松。此前，据SMM，精铜杆企业开工率为69.24%，较上周减少2.15%。可以看到，年末下游需求有所转弱，一方面，临近年末，无论是下游线缆厂还是铜杆企业，都会选择控制资金风险，适当减少接单量，因此元旦前采购意愿将受到一定的抑制；另一方面，下游消费确实有走弱的迹象。随着北方转冷，来自工程、房地产终端的订单持续转淡，需求进入春节前后的季节性淡季。另外，近期宁晋地区因冬奥会环保问题，部分小型线缆厂出现限产、停产的现象。废铜方面，本周精废价差维持在合理价差下方，对精铜消费存在支撑。库存方面，LME周度累库3425吨至81775吨，SHFE周度去库1058吨至6331吨。社库周度累库0.74万吨至9.01万吨，保税区周度去库0.83万吨至17.52万吨。进口方面，从比价上来看，本周对01合约进口亏损维持在300元/吨左右，而现货进口盈利窗口是打开状态，叠加外盘back结构大幅收窄，少量需求集中在仓单及近期到港提单上。但是，临近年末多家贸易商表示全年贸易指标已经达成，近期忙于年末清算，参与现货贸易意愿明显减弱。且近期船期延后问题不断出现，也抑制了现货买卖的积极性。

总的来看，海外宏观不确定性加大。基本面上，矿端扰动增加，中国北方各重要口岸在疫情干扰下依旧不同程度受到影响，11月TC指数下行明显。冶炼端，全国限电基本结束，但受矿端干扰及硫酸价格下降抑制冶炼厂生产积极性，11月电解铜产量难回二季度高位。废铜方面，铜价下行，带动精废价差走弱回落至合理区间下方，废铜对于精铜的消费支撑再次显现。消费端呈现淡季不淡，限电结束叠加房地产边际改善，11月铜行业PMI有所上升，但美联储利率决议在即，市场不确定性较大。故此多重因素影响错综，铜价暂时仍维持震荡格局。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.疫情风险加剧

PTA：疫情影响下游开工，PTA基差走弱

一、浙石化新装置投产后，总负荷提升仍慢

（1）浙石化PX900万吨提负至65%至70%，提负仍偏慢；中金和镇海石化目前正常运行，关注后续潜在影响。浙石化未满负荷背景下，亚洲PX12-1月累库速率仍偏慢，PX加工费预期压缩到位。

二、PTA开工有提升预期

（1）此前疫情原因导致逸盛新材料360万吨装置降负至5成，后续听闻通行证问题逐步解决，有提负预期。下游降负预期背景下，TA基差回落。

三、华东疫情对聚酯亦有降负预期

（1）疫情影响下，宁波地区聚酯装置有降负减产计划。（2）绍兴疫情仍存，终端印染负荷受影响。（3）关注后续聚酯工厂减产计划。

平衡表展望：终端降负导致的聚酯降负预期，PTA工厂检修预期全兑现背景下，12月预期小幅去库或走平。

策略建议：（1）单边：观望，PTA加工费高位回落预期区间盘整，PX浙石化新增产能压制加工费亦已到低位。（2）跨期套利：观望。

风险：原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂检修兑现进度，浙石化PX新装置提负进度，聚酯工厂联合减产进度。