Iron Ore: Macro expectations are improving, and consumption may gradually pick up.
The improvement in macro expectations last week boosted market confidence, and iron ore futures prices fluctuated upward. As of last Friday, the iron ore 2205 contract settlement price was 682.5 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 46 yuan/ton, or 7.23%. Affected by rising futures prices, spot prices have also rebounded. Last week, Qingdao Port PB fines reported 750 yuan / ton, up 51 yuan / ton on a week-on-week basis, and the main contract basis was 125. The SSF was 480 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis, and the main contract basis was -14. The Platts 62% index was reported at US$118.25/ton on the 17th. In terms of transactions, the average daily transaction of iron ore in major ports across the country this week was 1.1992 million tons, an increase of 22.2% from the previous month. The average daily trading volume of iron ore increased significantly this week, and the market activity has increased.
On the supply side, according to Mysteel's statistics, the total global shipment volume of the latest phase was 28.87 million tons, a decrease of 5.8 million tons on a week-on-week basis. Among them, Australia shipped 17.59 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.27 million tons. Brazil shipped 4.93 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.11 million tons. Non-mainstream shipments were 6.34 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 420,000 tons. From the perspective of iron ore supply, the current iron ore supply side is relatively loose, iron ore shipments are relatively stable, and port inventory remains high.
On the demand side, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a 68% blast furnace operating rate, a decrease of 0.14% from the previous week and a decrease of 17.29% from the previous year. The average daily molten iron output was 1.9911 million tons, an increase of 4,100 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 449,200 tons from the same period last year. Affected by the recovery of real estate policies, consumption of building materials has also rebounded, but the overall strength is weak, and it is difficult to change the characteristics of the off-season. However, with the completion of the crude steel reduction policy, there are signs of steel mills resuming production in many places. In addition, the current profitability of the steel mills is relatively good, and the market expects the steel mills to resume production.
In terms of inventory, according to Mysteel's statistics, the total iron ore inventory of 45 ports in China last week was 156.96 million tons, an increase of 2.11 million tons from last week. Inventory increased, and the overall remained high.
In terms of news, Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, answered reporters at the State Council press conference held on the 15th, saying that the impact of the Winter Olympics on the production of related enterprises is generally limited.
On the whole, multiple macroeconomic policies such as the central bank's comprehensive RRR cut and "steady growth" have boosted market confidence and revived market optimism. Coupled with the enhanced expectation of steel mills to resume production, iron ore prices have rebounded. However, considering that iron ore shipments are relatively stable at present, and the production capacity of downstream steel mills is affected by production-restricted policies, it is difficult to release, resulting in continued accumulation of iron ore inventories. In addition, the staggered production in autumn and winter coupled with the upcoming Winter Olympics, the environmental protection of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is becoming stricter, and it is expected that the iron ore will remain volatile in the short term.
Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks:
1. Real estate related policies
2. Overseas mining plan
3. Limited production of steel mills
Rubber: The demand is weak, and the price of rubber continues to fluctuate.
The price of rubber continued to fluctuate at low levels last week. Domestic demand for raw material purchases in the downstream and unresolved port shipping have led to continued decline in port inventory. However, the weak terminal demand has led to the accumulation of finished product inventories in tire factories. At the same time, the high spread between futures and spot prices has also put greater pressure on market hedging.
The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of December 17 was 221,350 tons (+5489), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 192,230 tons (+16720). As the main domestic production areas will continue to stop delivery, the increase in the later period will slow down. As of December 12, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, and the rate of decline increased month-on-month, mainly due to continued downstream purchases, and the number of arrivals to the port was always low. As logistics is difficult to solve in the short term, it is expected that it will be difficult to see the turning point of the port's accumulation of inventory at the end of the year.
In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of December 16, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 63% (-1.26%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 64% (+0.23%). The weak terminal demand has led to the re-accumulation of the current tire factory finished product inventory, which will inhibit the recovery of the later operating rate. However, due to concerns about the policy of restricting electricity in the later period, it is expected that the decline in the operating rate of the tire factory is also limited.
Opinion: At present, the main suppression of the rubber market comes from arbitrage. The current futures and spot spreads are still in a profitable state, so the market's short power mainly comes from this. The support under the rubber comes mainly from raw materials, especially domestic production is basically stopped. The current raw material prices can be regarded as the recent raw material warehouse receipt costs, which are expected to be 14,200 yuan/ton. The overseas raw material prices are still high. Unless the output in January increases significantly, the support of the cost limits the space below the price of rubber. The inventory of domestic ports has not yet been resolved due to shipping schedule issues, and the destocking trend has not changed. At present, due to the weakness of the demand side, and the downstream tire factories have made certain restocking actions in the early stage, a large amount of raw material purchases in the later stage need to see the effective destocking of the finished product inventory before it can appear. Therefore, short-term weak demand may also limit the upward drive of rubber prices. Therefore, it is expected that rubber prices will maintain a volatile pattern before the end of the year.
1. Significant increase in domestic supply
2. Demand continues to weaken due to the epidemic and other impacts
3. Funds are tight.
Crude oil: The downward revision of monthly report demand by the three major institutions is limited.
Last week, the three major organizations issued a December report. Although Omi Keron caused a deterioration in the global epidemic situation, the three major institutions did not significantly lower the demand in the fourth quarter of this year in this monthly report. Omi Keron mainly affects the expected demand growth next year, and has a relatively small impact on demand this year. On the other hand, the base adjustment of demand in 2020 will also play a role in hedging the downward revision of demand. On the supply side, OPEC's output growth still fell short of expectations, while non-OPEC's supply growth had little correction. On the whole, the COO adjustments of the three major institutions in this period are limited, and Omi Keron has not had a major impact on the 2021 balance sheet.
Demand: EIA predicts that demand growth in 2021 is estimated to be 5.1 million barrels per day, which is 20,000 barrels per day lower than the previous month. Although Omi Keron has affected demand growth, the downward adjustment of the base number has led to little adjustment in year-on-year growth. OPEC predicts that demand growth in 2021 is estimated to be 5.65 million barrels per day, unchanged from last month's forecast. The downward revision of the 2020 base number hedges the downward revision of demand. IEA predicts that demand growth in 2021 is estimated to be 5.37 million barrels per day, which is revised down by 130,000 barrels per day from the previous month’s forecast, mainly due to Omi Keron.
Non-OPEC supply: EIA expects that 2021 non-OPEC supply will increase by 870,000 barrels per day from the same period last year, which is an upward revision of 60,000 barrels per day from the previous month’s forecast. The US supply is revised upwards of 70,000 barrels per day from the previous month. EIA predicts that the total supply of liquids in the United States in 2022 will increase by 1.28 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year. OPEC expects non-OPEC supply to increase by 680,000 barrels per day in 2021, an increase of 20,000 barrels per day from the previous month. The IEA expects non-OPEC supply in 2021 to increase by 710,000 barrels per day year-on-year, which is little changed from last month's forecast.
OPEC production: According to EIA statistics, in November, OPEC's production increased by 320,000 barrels/day to 27.7 million barrels/day. The increase in production came from Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Iraq. According to OPEC's statistics, OPEC's production in November increased by 290,000 barrels per day from the previous month to 27.72 million barrels per day. According to IEA statistics, OPEC's output in November increased by 310,000 barrels/day to 27.75 million barrels/day, and OPEC’s overall compliance rate was 124%, which was unchanged from the previous month.
Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East
Copper: The Fed's Taper speed is accelerating, and the price of copper is still difficult to change the volatility pattern.
According to SMM, the average price of SMM 1# Copper Cathode in the week of December 17th ran at 68,845 yuan/ton and 69,545 yuan/ton, showing a weekly volatile trend. The average premium and discount quotation of Standard-Grade Copper runs from a discount of 80 to a premium of 130 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend in the middle of the week. Last week, copper prices fell first and then rose. The Shanghai Copper 2202 contract operates from a minimum of 66,810 yuan to a maximum of 69,550 yuan/ton, and it closed at 68,950 yuan/ton on Friday night trading.
On the macro front, the US CPI rose 0.8% month-on-month in November, in line with market expectations. The year-on-year increase further climbed to 6.8%, the highest level since June 1982. Inflation in the United States has hit a new high in nearly 40 years, and the Fed is facing greater tightening pressure. In the early days of the Fed's meeting on interest rates, copper prices fell pessimistically. Powell’s December press conference summarizes the main points: Taper will be completed in March next year, and interest rates may start to increase before the goal of full employment is achieved. The Fed is on the right track to end/complete the Taper (underweight QE) in mid-March 2022, and only two FOMC monetary policy meetings are left before the completion of Taper. Interest rate hikes will not start to raise interest rates before the completion of Taper, and FOMC interest rate expectations do not mean that the Fed has an interest rate hike plan. The interest rate meeting was concluded, and copper prices rebounded after bottoming out.
Fundamentally, interference from domestic and foreign mines continues. Las Bambas copper mine agreement is difficult to reach, announced within the week to stop production until this Saturday. The transportation of copper concentrate at Erlian Port in China continued to be suspended due to the epidemic, and it is currently planned to resume next week. The TC index declined for two consecutive weeks. On the consumer side, the new year's close, the interference of the epidemic, and the rebound of copper prices at the end of the week have led to weaker copper terminal consumer demand. As the price of copper fell from the previous period, the price difference between refined copper and copper scrap continued to stay below the reasonable price difference, supporting the price of copper. In terms of inventory, LME accumulates inventory weekly, but the Shanghai Futures Exchange destocks this week. At the same time, both domestic social treasury and bonded zone inventories are destocked, and it seems that the turning point of inventory has not yet appeared. On the whole, as the Fed’s interest rate hike is digested by the market, the market will face continuous disturbances on the supply side and seasonal weakness on the demand side. The price of copper will continue to fluctuate before the inflection point of inventory appears.
1. Unilateral: Neutral
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. Accumulated inventory turning point
2. Monetary policy orientation
3. Energy crisis risk
PTA: Under the influence of the epidemic, the terminal production load has dropped.
Last Friday compared to this Friday, TA2201 closed at 4640 yuan/ton, +140 yuan/ton from the previous week. In terms of spot, PTA4630 yuan/ton, compared with last week's +30 yuan/ton. TA basis is -10 yuan/ton, which is +10 yuan/ton compared to last week. The PTA processing fee is 616 yuan/ton, which is +6 yuan/ton compared to last week. PX835 USD/ton, +5 USD/ton from last week. The PX processing fee was US$128/ton, which was US$+1/ton last week.
In terms of PX supply, this week’s CCF’s PX China operating rate was 68.5% (+0%), and PX Asia’s operating rate was 71.3% (+0%). Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 9 million tons of PX increased the load to 65% to 70%, and the lifting load was still slow. Under the background of Zhejiang Petrochemical's under-loading, the accumulation rate of Asian PX from December to January is still relatively slow, and the PX processing fee is expected to be compressed in place.
In terms of PTA supply, CCF's PTA operating rate this week was 62.9% (-10.4%). The previous epidemic in East China caused the 3.6 million tons load of Yisheng New Materials to still be around 60%. Yisheng Dahua's 6 million tons production capacity was temporarily stopped on the evening of December 16 and will be gradually repaired on Friday. The current PTA processing fee is higher than 600, which basically reflects the expectation of a small destocking in December.
Overall, PX processing fees have basically been compressed on the left side, and there is limited room for further compression under the background of low pressure on short-term accumulation of inventory. The PTA is expected to slightly destock under the background of the full overhaul in December. However, the current PTA processing fee of more than 600 is basically overdrawn, and there is not much room for re-transaction.
(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude; At present, PTA processing fees have rebounded to a short-term high. The slow negative increase of PX Zhejiang Petrochemical reflects the limited room for further compression of processing fees.
(2) Intertemporal: There is a slight destocking expectation in December, take a wait-and-see attitude.
Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA plant maintenance progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.
基本面上，国内外矿端干扰持续，Las Bambas铜矿协议难达成，周内宣布停产至本周六。国内二连口岸受疫情影响铜精矿运输持续暂停，目前计划下周恢复。TC指数连续两周下行。2022年铜精矿长单加工费Bench mark敲定为65美元/吨，较2021年上涨5.5美元/吨，涨幅不及市场预期，隐含买卖双方对2022年供给扰动仍有所担忧。消费端来看，年关将至以及疫情干扰，加持周尾铜价反弹等因素，铜终端消费需求转淡。随着铜价由前期回落，精废价差持续位于合理价差下方。对铜价形成支撑。库存方面，LME周度累库，但上期所本周去库，同时国内社库及保税区库存均去库，库存拐点目前看来仍未出现。整体来看，伴随美联储加息利空情绪被市场消化，后续将面临供应端的持续扰动以及需求端的季节性走弱。库存拐点尚未出现之前，铜价将持续震荡。
1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
1. 累库拐点 货币政策导向 能源危机风险