Iron Ore: The demand for restocking is stable, and the port inventory has begun to be destocked.

Logic and perspective:

Yesterday, the iron ore 2205 contract was affected by the epidemic and the external market, and closed at 673.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton, or 1.32%. Qingdao Port PB fines reported 785 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; SSF reported 485 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the spread between high and low-grade products was 300 yuan/ton. A total of 1 million tons of transactions were traded at the port yesterday.

According to Mysteel's statistics, the total inventory of 45 ports was 154.435 million tons, a decrease of 2.528 million tons from the previous month. Australia and Brazil shipped 25.773 million tons of iron ore, a month-on-month increase of 3.195 million tons. Australia’s total shipments amounted to 19.037 million tons, an increase of 1.443 million tons from the previous month. Among them, Australia sent 16.649 million tons to China, an increase of 2.566 million tons from the previous month. Brazil’s total shipments amounted to 6.736 million tons, an increase of 1.802 million tons from the previous month. The total global shipment volume was 32.064 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.195 million tons. Global shipments have returned to high levels.

On the whole, the supply and demand of iron ore have increased simultaneously, the shipments of foreign mines have returned to high levels, and the demand for winter storage of steel mills and restocking before the Spring Festival has stabilized. Although the national molten iron output temporarily remained low and only increased slightly from the previous month, the port inventory of iron ore began to fall from the previous month. Due to recent replenishment of stocks and long-term prospects for the resumption of production by steel mills, and long-term steel mill profits still exist, it is expected that iron ore will continue to fluctuate at high levels.

Strategies:

Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. Steel plant resumption of production and changes in profit

2. Iron ore shipment

3. epidemic

Rubber: Demand worries, the trend of rubber prices weakened.

On December 20, the most-active RU contract closed at 14210 (-395) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12725 (-175) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -835 yuan/ton (+45); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 103637 (+7288) lots, the short position was 154065 (+9417) lots, and the net short position was 50428 (+2129) lots.

On December 20, the most-active NR contract closed at 11065 (-175) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,730 (-25) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,725 (-20) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,755 (-20) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -37 (+96) yuan/ton.

As of December 17: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 221,350 (+5489) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 192,230 (+16720) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 54.52 (+4.02), cup lump 47.05 (-0.69), latex 51.2 (-1.3), RSS3 59.89 (+1.11).

As of December 16, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 63% (-1.26%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 64% (+0.23%).

Opinion: Crude oil prices fell sharply yesterday, which may be related to the epidemic at home and abroad, which directly affects the increase in concerns on the rubber demand side. At the same time, the recent continuous decline of synthetic rubber has also caused the premium of natural rubber to continue to increase. Worries about the anti-substitution of future demand and the depreciation of the Thai baht have jointly led to the weakening of rubber prices. At present, the non-standard rubber spread is still large, and the hedging pressure on the market has not yet eased. It is expected that short-term prices will remain weak.

Strategy: Neutrally bearish

Risks:

1. Epidemic recurring

2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen

3. Weak demand

Crude oil: The WHO says it is too early to conclude that Omi Keron is mild.

Oil prices fell sharply yesterday, and the WHO stated that it is too early to conclude that Omi Keron is a mildly mutated virus. With the increase in the number of cases of Omi Keron mutant infections, all health systems will be under pressure, which has increased market concerns about Omi Keron virus. Judging from the infection situation in the United States, Omi Keron's proportion of cases has increased rapidly. Even if the early infection is mild, once the number of infections increases beyond the capacity of the local medical system, it is not ruled out that major economies will restart social distancing measures. However, the recent news about Omi Keron is not completely bearish. Tests have shown that Moderna's booster shots can increase the antibody against Ome Keron by 36 times, but the uncertainty that Ome Keron brings to the market continues.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

Copper: LPR is slightly lowered, focusing on possible arbitrage opportunities in the internal and external markets.

View:

On the macro level, the LPR was lowered to 3.80% from the previous 3.85% yesterday, which shows that China’s monetary policy is quite different from the gradual tightening overseas. This may create certain opportunities for cross-market arbitrage of domestic and foreign markets in the future. However, it can be found that the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields do not seem to show any significant gains after the hawkish Fed meeting last week. This may reflect that there is still a greater wait-and-see sentiment in the market at the moment.

Fundamentally, interference from domestic and foreign mines continues. Las Bambas copper mine agreement is difficult to reach, announced within the week to stop production until this Saturday. The transportation of copper concentrate at Erlian Port in China continued to be suspended due to the epidemic, and it is currently planned to resume next week. The TC index declined for two consecutive weeks. On the consumer side, the new year's close, the interference of the epidemic, and the rebound of copper prices at the end of the week have led to weaker copper terminal consumer demand. As the price of copper fell from the previous period, the price difference between refined copper and copper scrap continued to stay below the reasonable price difference, supporting the price of copper. In terms of inventory, LME accumulates inventory weekly, but the Shanghai Futures Exchange destocks this week. At the same time, both domestic social treasury and bonded zone inventories are destocked, and it seems that the turning point of inventory has not yet appeared. On the whole, as the Fed’s interest rate hike is digested by the market, the market will face continuous disturbances on the supply side and seasonal weakness on the demand side. The price of copper will continue to fluctuate before the inflection point of inventory appears.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: Crude oil drove the fall of PTA.

1. The load increase of Zhejiang Petrochemical is still slow.

(1) The PX 9 million tons production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company increased the load to 65% to 70%, and the rate was still slow. Zhenhai Petrochemical is currently operating normally, and attention needs to be paid to potential future impacts. Under the background that Zhejiang Petrochemical is under full load, the accumulation rate of Asian PX inventory in December-January is still slow, and PX processing fees are expected to be compressed.

2. PTA partly increases production load.

(1) Last week, Yisheng New Material's 3.6 million tons capacity device still maintained a low load at 60%, and the load will be gradually increased this week. Yisheng Dahua's 6 million tons production capacity was temporarily stopped last Friday, and the load will remain low this week.

3. The terminal load is under pressure.

(1) Under the background of the Shaoxing epidemic, combined with local environmental inspections and insufficient orders, the operating rate of weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was relatively low.

(2) Pay attention to the subsequent production reduction plan of the polyester plant.

Balance sheet outlook: It is expected that polyester will reduce production load due to terminal load reduction. Under the background of the full implementation of the PTA factory overhaul, it is expected that the inventory will be slightly destocked in December, but it will enter the seasonal accumulation of inventory in January.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; The PTA processing fee has fallen from the high level and is expected to undergo range consolidation afterwards. PX Zhejiang Petrochemical's new production capacity has also suppressed processing fees to a low level, and crude oil benchmarks have fallen.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA plant maintenance progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿石：补库需求稳定，港存开始去化

逻辑和观点：

昨日铁矿石2205合约受疫情及外围市场影响，放量增仓下跌收于673.5元/吨，跌9元/吨，跌幅1.32%。青岛港PB报785元/吨，涨35元/吨，超特报485元/吨，涨5元/吨，高低品价差300元/吨。昨日港口累计成交100万吨。

Mysteel统计45港港口总库存15443.5万吨，环比回落252.8万吨。澳大利亚巴西铁矿发运总量2577.3万吨，环比增加319.5万吨；澳大利亚发货总量1903.7万吨，环比增加144.3万吨；其中澳大利亚发往中国量1664.9万吨，环比增加256.6万吨；巴西发货总量673.6万吨，环比增加180.2万吨。全球发运总量3206.4万吨，环比增加319.5万吨。全球发运量回归高位水平。

整体来看，铁矿石供需同步有所增加，外矿发运重回高位，钢厂冬储及春节前补库需求稳定。虽然全国铁水产量暂时维持低位仅环比小幅增加，但铁矿港口库存开始环比回落。由于近端的补库和远端的钢厂复产预期，且长流程钢厂利润犹存，预计铁矿石依旧偏强震荡。

策略：

单边：震荡偏强

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：：钢厂复产及利润变化情况，铁矿发运，疫情等。

橡胶：需求担忧，胶价走势转弱

20号，RU主力收盘14210（-395）元/吨，混合胶报价12725元/吨（-175），主力合约基差-835元/吨（+45）；前二十主力多头持仓103637（+7288），空头持仓154065（+9417），净空持仓50428（+2129）。

20号，NR主力收盘价11065（-175）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1730（-25）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1725美元/吨（-20），印尼标胶1755（-20）美元/吨。主力合约基差-37（+96）元/吨。

截至12月17日：交易所总库存221350（+5489），交易所仓单192230（+29120）。

原料：生胶片54.52（+4.02），杯胶47.05（-0.69），胶水51.2（-1.3），烟片59.89（+1.11）。

截止12月16日，国内全钢胎开工率为63%（-1.26%），国内半钢胎开工率为64%(+0.23%）。

观点：昨天原油价格大幅下行，或跟海内外的疫情有关，这也直接影响到橡胶需求端的担忧在重新加大，同时合成橡胶近期的持续回落也使得天然橡胶升水合成橡胶在持续拉大，担忧后期需求的反替代，叠加泰铢的贬值，共同带来橡胶价格的转弱。目前橡胶非标价差仍较大，盘面的套保压力暂未缓解，预计短期价格将维持弱势运行。

策略：中性偏空

风险：疫情反复，期现价差持续拉大，需求示弱等。

原油：世卫组织称断定奥密克戎轻症为时尚早

昨日油价大幅下跌，世卫组织表示目前断定奥密克戎是温和变异病毒为时尚早，随着奥密克戎变异株感染病例数量增加，所有卫生系统都将面临压力，这增加了市场对于奥密克戎病毒的担忧，从美国的感染情况来看，奥密克戎在病例中的占比迅速增加，即便早期感染为轻症，但一旦感染人数增加超过当地的医疗系统承受能力，不排除各大经济体重新启动社交疏离措施，不过，近期关于奥密克戎的消息并非完全利空，试验显示Moderna加强针可以将对奥密克戎的抗体提高36倍，但奥密克戎对市场带来的不确定性仍在持续。

策略：中性，行情走势偏震荡

风险：中东地缘政治风险

铜：LPR小幅调降 关注可能带来的内外盘套利机会

观点：

宏观方面，昨日LPR。从此前的3.85%下调至3.80%。这显示出中国的货币政策相较于海外的逐渐趋紧有着较大的不同。这或许在未来会为品种的内外盘跨市套利创造一定机会。不过可以发现，美元指数以及美债收益率当下似乎并未因上周鹰派的美联储会议之后呈现出明显的走强。这或许反映出市场当下仍存在较大的观望情绪。

基本面来看，国内外矿端干扰持续，Las Bambas铜矿协议难达成，周内宣布停产至本周六。国内二连口岸受疫情影响铜精矿运输持续暂停，目前计划下周恢复。TC指数连续两周下行。2022年铜精矿长单加工费Bench mark敲定为65美元/吨，较2021年上涨5.5美元/吨，涨幅不及市场预期，隐含买卖双方对2022年供给扰动仍有所担忧。消费端来看，年关将至以及疫情干扰，加持周尾铜价反弹等因素，铜终端消费需求转淡。随着铜价由前期回落，精废价差持续位于合理价差下方。对铜价形成支撑。库存方面，LME周度累库，但上期所本周去库，同时国内社库及保税区库存均去库，库存拐点目前看来仍未出现。整体来看，伴随美联储加息利空情绪被市场消化，后续将面临供应端的持续扰动以及需求端的季节性走弱。库存拐点尚未出现之前，铜价将持续震荡。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 美联储货币政策导向 2.美元指数走势 3.疫情风险加剧

PTA：原油带动PTA成本型回落

一、浙石化提升仍慢

（1）浙石化PX900万吨提负至65%至70%，提负仍偏慢；中金和镇海石化目前正常运行，关注后续潜在影响。浙石化未满负荷背景下，亚洲PX12-1月累库速率仍偏慢，PX加工费预期压缩到位。

二、PTA开工部分提负

（1）上周逸盛新材料360万吨装置仍低负荷在6成，本周逐步提负。逸盛大化600万吨上周五短停，本周仍低负荷。

三、终端负荷受压

（1）绍兴疫情背景下，叠加局部环保检查以及订单不足，江浙织造及加弹开工率偏低。关注后续聚酯工厂减产可能。

平衡表展望：终端降负导致的聚酯降负预期，PTA工厂检修预期全兑现背景下，12月预期小幅去库，但1月进入季节性累库阶段。

策略建议：（1）单边：谨慎偏空。PTA加工费高位回落预期区间盘整，PX浙石化新增产能压制加工费亦已到低位，原油基准回落。（2）跨期套利：观望。

风险：原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂检修兑现进度，浙石化PX新装置提负进度，聚酯工厂减产力度。