Iron Ore: The demand for restocking continues, and port inventories have fallen from a high level.
Last week, the iron ore 2205 contract rose to close at 713.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton, or 5.47%. In terms of spot, Rizhao Port PB fines reported 820 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from the previous month; SSF was 505 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous month. The Platts 62% U.S. Dollar Index reported at 125.05 U.S. dollars, up 6.8 U.S. dollars from the previous month. The average weekly trading volume of iron ore last week was 1.0952 million tons, a decrease of 104,000 tons from the previous month.
On the supply side, the total global shipments in this period amounted to 32.064 million tons, an increase of 3.195 million tons on a weekly basis. Among them, shipments from Australia increased by 1.443 million tons to 19.037 million tons; shipments from Brazil increased by 1.802 million tons to 6.736 million tons; non-mainstream shipments were 6.291 million tons, a week-on-month decrease of 50,000 tons. The weekly supply has rebounded to a high level in the same period in history, and the supply has been loose.
On the demand side, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a 67.87% blast furnace operating rate, a decrease of 0.13% from last week and a decrease of 17.68% from last year. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 74.33%, an increase of 0.05% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 17.54%. The average daily output of molten iron was 1.9901 million tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 455,300 tons from the same period last year. After steel mills across the country basically completed the production limit of crude steel in December, the resumption of production fell short of expectations, and the demand for molten iron remained weak.
In terms of inventory, this week Mysteel calculated that the total iron ore inventory of 45 ports in China was 15.5126 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.837 million tons. Last week, the port congestion volume of 45 ports was 2.9822 million tons, an increase of 120,900 tons from the previous month. Among them, the port congestion volume of Hebei and East China increased significantly from the previous month.
On the whole, the delivery of overseas mines on the supply side is loose, and the national molten iron output continues to maintain an ultra-low level. The iron ore port inventory began to fall from a high level, and the total iron element inventory continued to fall. The demand of steel mills for winter storage and restocking before the Spring Festival is stronger than the actual production resumption demand of steel mills in December. Due to recent replenishment of stocks and long-term prospects for the resumption of production by steel mills, and long-term steel mill profits still exist, it is expected that iron ore will continue to fluctuate at high levels.
Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks:
1. Steel plant resumption of production and changes in profit
2. Iron ore shipment
Rubber: The replacement market is sluggish, and the price of rubber fluctuates weakly.
Last week, the price of rubber continued to fluctuate weakly, and the price center moved down slightly, generally following the fluctuation of the surrounding market atmosphere. However, due to the weakness on the demand side, the overall price is slightly weaker. At the same time, the fall in the price of raw materials in Thailand's main producing areas has brought down the support of rubber costs, which has collectively put pressure on rubber prices.
The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of December 24 was 228,055 tons (+6705), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 206,590 tons (+14360). The market price premium continues to cause recent warehouse receipts and inventories to continue to increase. The main domestic production areas will basically stop delivery next week, and the increase in warehouse receipts will slow down in the later period. As of December 19, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, mainly due to the fact that the downstream remained rid-demand procurement, and the arrivals at the port were always low. Therefore, no turning point in port accumulation will be seen before the end of the year.
In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of December 23, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 63.86% (+0.86%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 63.75% (-0.25%). With the rebound of finished product inventory in tire factories and the advent of the domestic off-season and holidays, the operating rate of tire factories in the future may face a gradual decline, and the demand side is expected to show off-season characteristics.
Viewpoint: The recent contradiction between rubber supply and demand is not prominent. The short-term pressure mainly comes from the downward movement of the import arbitrage window brought about by the fall in overseas raw material prices. The pressure above the rubber price is gradually decreasing, limiting its upward space. At the same time, the domestic epidemic situation has been repeated in stages, and epidemic prevention and control measures have also caused the recent domestic replacement market demand to be relatively sluggish. Coupled with the current off-season characteristics, it is directly reflected in the recovery of the pressure on the finished product inventory of domestic tire factories. This will limit the willingness of the tire factory to purchase raw materials in the later period, which will be bearish for rubber prices. However, due to the unresolved domestic port shipping schedule issue, the support from the continuous destocking of port inventory is still effective. Therefore, the short-term rubber price maintains a volatile pattern.
Strategy: Neutrally cautiously
1. Significant increase in domestic supply
2. Demand continues to weaken due to the epidemic and other impacts
3. Funds are tight
Crude oil: The market is concerned about the development of the epidemic and the progress of the Iranian nuclear negotiations.
Oil prices performed strongly on Christmas Eve last week. Given the relative weakness of crude oil fundamentals and reality, the focus of the market is on the easing of concerns about the Ome Keron epidemic and that the Iranian nuclear talks have once again become deadlocked. Judging from the situation of the epidemic, among European and American countries, the UK has the most severe epidemic at present. Under the high growth of epidemic cases, the number of severe illnesses and deaths in European and American countries has increased, but the death rate is not high for the time being. As of December 24, with the exception of Germany (-15%), the number of new cases MA7 dropped from a week ago, France (+12%), the United States (+35%), Spain (+36%), and Italy (+32%) ), the United Kingdom (+46%) and other major European and American countries with new epidemics continuing to worsen. The number of newly confirmed cases in the UK has nearly doubled from the previous year's high (in late July). The new epidemic in South Africa (-25%) eased slightly. Regarding the social distancing policy, Japan has extended the "entry lockdown" policy originally scheduled to end at the end of December. The Netherlands/Portugal/Italy upgraded epidemic prevention and control measures, reduced group activities, and strengthened social restrictions. France/Germany/UK are preparing to discuss escalation of prevention and control measures after Christmas. In contrast, despite the same high growth of the epidemic in the United States, the policy is the most "loose", and it is preparing to cancel the entry control of the eight South African countries from the end of the year. In the fourth week of December, the number of U.S. TSA aviation security inspections (MA7) rebounded by 10% from the previous week, basically returning to the level at the end of November. The US domestic road traffic (index) rebounded for three consecutive weeks (+5.8% a week), Germany (+3.7%), France (+4.7%), Italy (+6.5%) all rebounded, and the United Kingdom (-4.8%) fell.
On the other hand, the Iranian nuclear negotiations have reached a deadlock. Both the United States and Iran are unwilling to make a compromise, and negotiations will be suspended. The time for Iranian oil to return to the market is expected to be further delayed, which is bullish for next year's global oil supply and demand balance sheet and medium-term oil prices. However, in the near term, crude oil fundamentals are still relatively weak. On the one hand, the buying interest in China is weak, and on the other hand, the inventory clearance of US refineries at the end of the year will lead to an increase in exports in the near future. Recently, the cargo exported from the United States to Europe has increased significantly. Furthermore, European refineries are affected by the high cost of natural gas hydrogenation and poor demand for refined oil imports from West Africa, which has led to a drop in refinery load. Although the current absolute level of global crude oil and refined oil inventories is relatively low, the market has already traded in advance the accumulation of inventory expectations in the off-season of demand in the first quarter of next year.
Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East
Copper: European energy issues have pushed up the overall price of non-ferrous metals.
According to SMM, the average price of SMM 1# Copper Cathode in the week of December 24 was between RMB 69,200/ton and RMB 69,885/ton, showing a weekly fluctuation. The average premium and discount quotation of Standard-Grade Copper ran from a premium of 20 yuan/ton to a premium of 260 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend in the middle of the week. Copper prices rose first and then fell last week. The Shanghai Copper 2202 contract operated from a minimum of 68,380 yuan/ton to a maximum of 70,200 yuan/ton, and it closed at 68,840 yuan/ton on Friday night.
On the macro level, the Fed’s inflation data has exceeded expectations, and durable goods orders have maintained high growth, triggering market concerns about the continuity of inflation. Although the manufacturing PMI of developed countries is still above the line of prosperity and decline, there are signs of decline. The current energy problems in Europe are fermenting, and the market is worried about increasing supply disturbances. Domestically, the 1-year LPR interest rate is lowered by 5 BP, and the 5-year LPR rate remains unchanged. Inter-cyclical adjustments are relatively moderate, and market feedback is limited, which mainly indicates the attitude of marginal loose monetary policy. Ministry of Commerce: Affected by factors such as the spread of the epidemic and the rising base, the growth rate of China's consumer market slowed down in November, but it still shows strong consumer resilience. Generally speaking, the trend of China's consumer market has remained stable and positive.
From a fundamental point of view, on the supply side, the transportation of copper concentrate at Erlian Port has gradually resumed. Transport interference in Las Bambas also turned around. After being blocked for 31 days, the blockade was temporarily lifted on December 22 and waited for the meeting on December 30. According to Mysteel statistics, copper concentrate stocks at 7 major ports in China were 813,000 tons, a decrease of 3.4% from last week. In terms of consumption, the operating rate of refined copper rods was 67.08% last week, which fell again by 1.55%. The poor performance of downstream power consumption has significantly cooled the demand for copper rods. And near the end of the year, the company enters the settlement stage. Currently, the main focus is to withdraw funds, and the control of shipment volume and billing period will have a certain impact on output. At the same time, the market price rebounded late last week, and the copper price close to 70,000 yuan/ton dampened downstream purchasing sentiment again, and many copper rod companies had significantly increased their inventories. It is reported that current companies have chosen to reduce the risk of increased inventory through production cuts. At the same time, in the face of continued sluggish consumption, companies have planned to take a holiday early on New Year's Day, and it is expected that the operating rate of copper poles will continue to decline this week. In terms of imports, the LME0-3Back structure continues, and the import window is closed. With regard to copper scrap, the price of copper rebounded last week, driving the spread between refined copper and scrap copper to strengthen. However, it is still below a reasonable range, and there are no substitute advantages for copper scrap. In terms of inventory, on December 24, social inventory was 83,100, a month-on-month decrease of 2,700 tons. SHFE destocks 3550 tons to 6,656 tons on a weekly basis, LME accumulates 125 tons to 892.75 million tons on a weekly basis, and the low inventory trend is maintained.
On the whole, European energy issues have pushed up the overall price of non-ferrous metals. Near the end of the year, both supply and demand are weak, and the price of copper may continue to fluctuate on a strong side before the inventory turning point appears.
1. Unilateral: Cautiously bullish
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. Accumulate inventory turning point
2. Monetary policy orientation
3. Energy crisis risk
PTA: The progress of signing the long-term contract with the PTA factory still needs to be followed up, and the supply of circulation has been tightened.
Last Friday compared to this Friday, TA2205 closed at 4868 yuan/ton, +166 yuan/ton from the previous week. In terms of spot, PTA is 4798 yuan/ton, +168 yuan/ton from last week. TA spot-05 basis is -70 yuan/ton, which is +2 yuan/ton compared to last week. The PTA spot processing fee is 659 yuan/ton, which is +48 yuan/ton compared to last week. PX 861 USD/ton, +26 USD/ton from last week. The PX processing fee was US$149/ton, which was +21 US$/ton last week.
In terms of PX supply, this week’s CCF’s PX China operating rate was 68.6% (+0.1%), and PX Asia’s operating rate was 71.4% (+0.1%). Under the background of low processing costs in the early stage, most of the Korean installations have reduced the load to around 80%. India's OMPL restart is postponed. Hengli has a production capacity of 4.75 million tons of PX, and its load will be reduced by 15-20% on December 23. The recovery time is yet to be determined. Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX 9 million tons load is still 65% to 70%, and the rate of increasing the load is still slow. Under the background of Zhejiang Petrochemical's under-full load, the accumulation rate of Asian PX inventory in December-January is still slow, and PX processing fees may bottom out this week.
In terms of PTA supply, CCF's PTA operating rate was 78.8% (+15.9%) this week, and the preliminary maintenance equipment was basically restored. The 6 million tons of Yisheng Dahua has recovered from the beginning of the week to the first half of the week, the 3.6 million tons of Yisheng New Materials have increased the load to 90%, and the production capacity of Fujian Baihong's 2.5 million tons has been restarted. However, this week's PTA processing fee is still close to 700 yuan/ton, and the basis is also relatively strong. Hengli is still slow in signing long-term contracts next year. If the contract is not successfully signed in January, or the circulation of subsequent traders may be tightened, the PTA processing fee and basis will strengthen in the short term.
Overall, PX processing fees have basically been compressed on the left side, and there is limited room for further compression under the background of low pressure on short-term accumulation of inventory. In the context of the implementation of full overhaul in December, PTA has a slight destocking expectation. However, the current PTA processing fee of more than 700 is basically overdrawn, and there is not much room for re-transaction.
(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude; The PTA processing fee is relatively high in the short term, while the PX processing fee is still relatively low.
(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.
Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA factory long-term contract signing progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.
基本面来看，供应端，二连口岸的铜精矿运输逐步恢复；Las Bambas的运输干扰也出现转机，在被堵路31天后，于12月22日临时解除封锁并等待12月30日的会议。冶炼厂维持正常投料。据Mysteel统计，中国7个主流港口铜精矿库存81.3万吨，较上周减少3.4%。消费方面，上周精铜杆开工率67.08%，再度下滑1.55%，下游电力消费表现较差令铜杆的需求降温明显，且临近年末企业进入结算关账阶段，当前以回笼资金为主，控制发货量和账期对产量造成一定的影响。同时周尾盘面回升，接近70000元/吨的铜价令下游采购情绪再度受抑，不少铜杆企业库存明显增加，据悉当前已有企业选择通过减产控制库存增加带来的风险。同时面对持续萎靡的消费，企业已有元旦提前放假的计划，预计本周铜杆开工率将持续下滑。进口方面，LME0-3Back结构持续，进口比价不理想，进口窗口关闭。废铜方面，上周铜价反弹，带动精废价差走强，但仍处合理区间下方，废铜无替代优势。库存方面，12月24日社库8.31万，环比下降0.27万吨。SHFE周度去库3550吨至6656吨， LME周度累库125吨至89275万吨，低库存态势维持。
1. 单边：谨慎偏多 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
1. 累库拐点 货币政策导向 能源危机风险