Iron Ore: The port inventory of iron ore is high, and intraday prices continue to drop.
Viewpoint and logic:
Yesterday, the iron ore 2205 contract continued to fall, closing at 673 yuan/ton, down 23.5 yuan/ton, or 3.37%. The price of imported iron ore in Qingdao Port fell 0-20 yuan/ton throughout the day; PB fines reported 785 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; SSF was 475 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the spread between high and low-grade products is 310 yuan/ton. Yesterday, the port traded a total of 985,000 tons, an increase of 29.6% from the previous month, and the transaction was relatively good.
On the whole, the delivery of overseas mines on the supply side is loose, and the national molten iron output continues to maintain an ultra-low level. The iron ore port inventory began to fall from a high level, and the total iron element inventory continued to fall. The demand of steel mills for winter storage and restocking before the Spring Festival is stronger than the actual production resumption demand of steel mills in December. Due to the recent restocking of inventory and the expected resumption of production by steel mills in the future, and the long-term steel mills' immediate profits are still high, the expected restocking of iron ore still exists. However, the decline in consumption of thread and hot-rolled coil has become the focus of the market, and the short-term strategy tends to be neutral.
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks:
1. Steel plant resumption of production and changes in profit
2. Iron ore shipment
Rubber: Port inventory continues to decline.
On December 28, the most-active RU contract closed at 14745 (+290) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 12975 (+150) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1095 yuan/ton (-65); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 103250 (+560) lots, the short position was 152586 (+245) lots, and the net short position was 49336 (-805) lots.
On December 28, the most-active NR contract closed at 11545 (+295) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,770 (+30) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,760 (+25) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,795 (+20) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -329 (-128) yuan/ton.
As of December 24: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 228,055 (+6705) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 206,590 (+14360) tons.
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 52.8 (0), cup lump 45.5 (0), latex 48 (-0.5), RSS3 56.55 (+0.85).
As of December 23, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 63.86% (+0.86%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 63.75% (-0.25%).
Opinion: As of last weekend, domestic port inventories continued to decline, and the turning point of accumulated inventory has not yet arrived. Mainly due to the impact of shipping schedules, this factor continues to support domestic rubber prices. Therefore, although the current rains in Thailand's main production areas have reduced, and the rebound of raw materials has caused the prices of raw materials to continue to fall, the pressure on the domestic market prices is not obvious. The Yunnan epidemic and the increasing market concerns about domestic supply brought about the strength of the market yesterday. At the same time, due to the support of the cost of warehouse receipts, the space under the domestic rubber price is limited, and the price is easy to rise but difficult to fall. However, the prices of overseas Thai raw materials have shown a continued downward trend recently, which will push the import arbitrage window above the domestic market prices to further move down. The demand side drive is weak, it is recommended to maintain short-term operation.
Strategy: Cautiously bullish
1. Epidemic recurring
2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen
3. Weak demand
Crude oil: Japan plans to release its strategic reserves in the second quarter of next year.
Japan plans to release a total of approximately 620,000 barrels of strategic crude oil reserves in the second quarter of 2022, the oil type being Oman. Japan’s release of reserves, as part of the joint release of reserves with the United States, has more political significance than substantial significance. The released reserves of 620,000 barrels can be said to be a drop in the ocean for global oil consumption that consumes nearly 100 million barrels a day. This is more of a political signal from the world's major consumer countries to OPEC, that oil prices above $80/barrel are already the upper limit for inflation. But from a realistic point of view, although the United States has established a reserve release plan, oil prices are still returning to $80/barrel. In the current market environment, OPEC still has the right to speak in oil prices, and consumer countries have almost no corresponding means of checks and balances. We believe that in addition to speeding up the Iranian nuclear negotiations and introducing policies to support domestic shale oil extraction, the United States has very limited influence on oil prices.
Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East
Copper: The fear of the epidemic has eased, and the price of copper fluctuates at a high level.
From a macro perspective, housing prices in major cities in the United States cooled for the third consecutive month in October, falling from a record high set in July this year. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in December of the United States was 16, which was higher than expected and the previous value of 11. Recent economic data show signs of stabilization. In terms of the epidemic, on Monday, the world’s single-day new confirmed cases of new crowns hit a record high, and the United States added 500,000 confirmed cases. France added nearly 180,000 cases in a single day, and the United Kingdom added nearly 130,000 cases, which is a record high with Greece. Scientists expect the wave of Omikeron infections to peak in January next year. South African studies have shown that Omi Kiron infection can improve immunity to the Delta strain. Most economists believe that Ome Keron has less influence than previous waves of epidemics, and many countries have begun to relax restrictions. The United States has cut the quarantine period for infected people by half to five days. The United Kingdom will not implement new anti-epidemic restrictions before the end of this year. France plans to shorten the quarantine period for vaccinators. The governments of major countries all advocate full vaccination and booster shots as soon as possible.
From a fundamental point of view, the supply of the copper market in Shanghai is still tight, which makes holders to strongly support prices, leading to a slight increase in premiums and discounts. Guangdong's electrolytic copper inventories rose for two consecutive days. Under the background of rising copper prices, downstream suppliers were reluctant to purchase, holders actively adjusted prices, and the premium dropped significantly from yesterday. With regard to copper scrap, the spread between refined copper and copper scrap rose to above a reasonable range, and the advantage of copper scrap substitution appeared. In terms of imports, the LME market continues to be closed, and transactions in the foreign trade copper market are difficult. In terms of inventory, SHFE accumulated inventory slightly.
On the whole, concerns about the epidemic have eased, but as crude oil prices continue to increase inflation expectations, investors can maintain a bargain-hunting attitude towards the current copper price.
1. Unilateral: Cautiously bullish
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.
PTA: Polyester production and sales are rising, and PTA processing fees are still strong.
1. In terms of PX, the speed of increasing production load is still slow.
Under the background of low processing costs in the early stage, most of the Korean installations have reduced the production load to around 80%. India's OMPL restart is postponed. Hengli's 4.75 million tons of PX production capacity has been reduced by 15-20% on December 23, and the recovery time is yet to be determined. Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX 9 million tons production load is still 65% to 70%, and the speed of increasing the production load is still slow. Under the background of Zhejiang Petrochemical's under-full load, Asia's PX will slightly destock from January to February.
2. Pay attention to the future signing of Hengli's long-term contract.
(1) The PTA operating rate has returned to a short-term high, and Hengli’s progress in signing the long-term contract next year is still slow. If the signing is still not successful in January, the circulation of subsequent traders may be tightened. This may lead to a short-term strengthening of PTA processing fees.
Balance sheet outlook: It is expected that the inventory will be slightly destocked in December, but it will enter the seasonal accumulation of inventory in January.
(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude. The PTA processing fee is relatively high in the short term, while the PX processing fee is still relatively low.
(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.
Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA factory long-term contract signing progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.
宏观方面，美国10月主要城市房价连续第三个月降温，从今年7月所创历史新高回落。美国12月里士满联储制造业指数 16，高于预期和前值的 11，近期经济数据均显示企稳迹象。疫情方面，周一，全球单日新增新冠确诊病例创纪录新高，美国新增50万确诊。法国单日新增近18万例，英国新增近13万例，与希腊均再创新高。科学家预计奥密克戎感染浪潮在明年1月见顶，南非研究证明奥密克戎感染可提高对德尔塔毒株的免疫力。大多数经济学家认为奥密克戎影响力比前几波疫情小，不少国家开始放宽限制措施。美国将感染者隔离期砍半至5天，英国不会在今年底之前实施新的抗疫限制，法国计划缩短疫苗接种者的隔离期要求。主要国家政府均提倡尽快完全接种疫苗及其加强针。
1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
1. 库存拐点 2.美元指数走势 3.疫情风险加剧