Iron Ore: Spot transactions increased, and prices were weak.

Viewpoint and logic:

Yesterday, the iron ore 2205 contract lightened 2 thousand lots to close at 663 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, or 1.92%. The price of imported iron ore in Qingdao Port fell 5-17 yuan/ton throughout the day; PB fines reported 768 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton; SSF reported 468 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton; the spread between high and low-grade products was 300 yuan/ Ton. Yesterday, the port traded a total of 1.27 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 28.9%. As the price of iron ore fluctuates downward, traders are more active, and steel mills purchase on demand. The forward market transactions were active yesterday, and the overall transactions rebounded from the previous day.

On the whole, the delivery of overseas mines on the supply side is loose, and the national molten iron output continues to maintain an ultra-low level. The iron ore port inventory began to fall from a high level, and the total iron element inventory continued to fall. The demand of steel mills for winter storage and restocking before the Spring Festival is stronger than the actual production resumption demand of steel mills in December. Due to the recent restocking of inventory and the expected resumption of production by steel mills in the future, and the long-term steel mills' immediate profits are still high, the expected restocking of iron ore still exists. However, the decline in consumption of thread and hot-rolled coil has become the focus of the market, and the short-term strategy tends to be neutral.

Strategies:

Unilateral: Neutral

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. Steel plant resumption of production and changes in profit

2. Iron ore shipment

3. epidemic

Rubber: Pay attention to changes in the spread between futures and spot prices.

On December 29, the most-active RU contract closed at 14820 (+75) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13025 (+50) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1120 yuan/ton (-25); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 104585 (+1335) lots, the short position was 155089 (+2503) lots, and the net short position was 50504 (+1168) lots.

On December 29, the most-active NR contract closed at 11575 (+30) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,775 (+5) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,765 (+5) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,795 (0) US dollars/ton. The basis of most-active contract reported -329 (-128) yuan/ton.

As of December 24: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 228,055 (+6705) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 206,590 (+14360) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 53.22 (+0.42), cup lump 45.7 (+0.2), latex 48 (0), RSS3 56.8 (+0.25).

As of December 23, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 63.86% (+0.86%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 63.75% (-0.25%).

Opinion: The fundamentals of rubber have not changed much, and the current contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent. However, due to the impact of domestic shipping schedules, the small amount of domestic imported rubber arrivals has led to continued destocking of port inventories. The strong rubber price this week may mainly come from the support of this factor. At the same time, the repeated epidemics in Yunnan have affected the entry of index rubber, which is also a driving factor for the price rebound this week. With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the overall impact is expected to be limited. In the off-season of demand, the upward space of rubber prices is expected to be limited, so we maintain the judgment that prices will remain range-bound.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks:

1. Epidemic recurring

2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen

3. Weak demand

Crude oil: EIA crude oil and refined oil inventories fell.

Yesterday EIA announced inventory data, among which crude oil inventories and refined oil inventories continued to decline. The decline in crude oil inventories in December is seasonal, because in a year when oil prices are rising, refineries need to keep raw material inventories as low as possible before the end of the year based on inventory tax and accounting standards, so that the company's financial performance can perform better, thereby pushing up the company's stock price. The remuneration of factory executives is usually linked to the company's stock price. In terms of refined oil inventory, the main reason is that the consumer side is still healthy. Although the number of people infected with the new crown in the United States continues to increase, from the perspective of high-frequency data, such as the traffic congestion index and the number of people at airport security checks, they are still at a high level and have not been significantly affected. In addition, travel demand during the Christmas and New Year holidays also supported transportation consumption, and refined oil inventories remained relatively low.

Strategy: Neutral

Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

Copper: Risk sentiment and inflation expectations continue, and copper prices remain at the 70,000 mark.

View:

On the macro side, the US November existing home contract sales index unexpectedly fell 2.2% month-on-month, which was far behind the 7.5% increase in the previous value. It was affected by high housing prices and low inventory. The US merchandise trade deficit hit a record high in November, and the trend for the whole year will set a new record. Due to the sharp increase in imports to the highest level, the larger trade deficit will drag the US GDP for the fifth consecutive quarter, but it also reflects strong consumer demand and business investment. In terms of energy, European natural gas fell for a six-day to three-week low, the longest consecutive decline in more than a year. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that the "Beixi-2" natural gas pipeline project connecting Russia and Germany is ready. As long as Europe approves, Russia has the capacity to increase natural gas exports. In terms of the epidemic, the spread of Ome Keron caused the number of newly diagnosed cases worldwide to exceed 1 million for the second consecutive day. The WHO claims that Mudelta and Omi Keron strains pose a "dual threat" to the global epidemic. However, investors currently generally believe that the Omi Keron variant may not impose strict restrictions on global business activities and population movements, boosting risk sentiment.

From a fundamental point of view, near the end of the year, the supply of Shanghai copper market is tight, and the willingness of holders to hold up prices has strengthened, and the premiums and discounts of Shanghai copper have risen. Guangdong's electrolytic copper inventories ended the two consecutive increases and fell again, and hit a recent low. However, at the end of the year, more traders have begun to settle, the overall trading has become more and more insipid, transactions are not good, and the premiums and discounts of South China Copper have fallen. As for copper scrap, the price of copper rebounded slightly, and the spread between refined copper and scrap fell below a reasonable range. In terms of import, the import window is closed, and LME0-3 continues the Back structure. In terms of inventory, LME destocks slightly, and SHFE accumulates inventory slightly.

Overall, the risk sentiment continues, and the copper price stays at the 70,000 mark. As crude oil prices continue to rise and push up inflation expectations, it is recommended to maintain a bargain-hunting attitude towards copper prices.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. The Fed's monetary policy orientation

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: PTA processing fees continue to be firm.

1. In terms of PX, the speed of increasing production load is still slow.

Under the background of low processing costs in the early stage, most of the Korean installations have reduced the production load to around 80%. India's OMPL restart is postponed. Hengli's 4.75 million tons of PX production capacity has been reduced by 15-20% on December 23, and the recovery time is yet to be determined. Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX 9 million tons production load is still 65% to 70%, and the speed of increasing the production load is still slow. Under the background of Zhejiang Petrochemical's under-full load, Asia's PX will slightly destock from January to February.

2. PTA processing fees continue to be firm.

(1) The PTA operating rate has returned to a short-term high, and Hengli’s progress in signing the long-term contract next year is still slow. If the signing is still not successful in January, the circulation of subsequent traders may be tightened. This may lead to a short-term strengthening of PTA processing fees.

Balance sheet outlook: It is expected that the inventory will be slightly destocked in December, but it will enter the seasonal accumulation of inventory in January.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: take a wait-and-see attitude. The PTA processing fee is relatively high in the short term, while the PX processing fee is still relatively low.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA factory long-term contract signing progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿：现货成交增加，价格偏弱运行

观点与逻辑：

昨日铁矿石2205合约减仓0.2万手收于663元/吨，跌13元/吨，跌幅1.92%。青岛港进口铁矿全天价格下跌5-17元/吨，PB粉报768元/吨，跌17元/吨，超特报468元/吨，跌7元/吨，高低品价差300元/吨。昨日港口累计成交127万吨，环比上涨28.9%，随着铁矿价格震荡向下贸易商出货积极，钢材按需采购，昨日远期市场成交活跃，整体成交较前一日有所回升。

整体来看，供给端外矿发运表现宽松，全国铁水产量持续维持超低水平，疏港量却回升至历史同期高位，铁矿港口库存开始高位回落，铁元素总量连续降库，钢厂冬储及春节前补库需求强于12月钢厂实际生产复产需求。由于近端的补库和远端的钢厂复产预期，且长流程钢厂即期利润依旧偏高，铁矿石补库预期存在，但成材消费下降成为市场关注要点，短期策略中性。

策略：

单边：中性

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：钢厂复产及利润变化情况，铁矿发运，疫情等。

橡胶：关注期现价差的变化

29号，RU主力收盘14820（+75）元/吨，混合胶报价13025元/吨（+50），主力合约基差-1120元/吨（-25）；前二十主力多头持仓104585（+1335），空头持仓155089（+2503），净空持仓50504（+1168）。

29号，NR主力收盘价11575（+30）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1775（+5）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1765美元/吨（+5），印尼标胶1795（0）美元/吨。主力合约基差-329（-128）元/吨。

截至12月24日：交易所总库存228055（+6705），交易所仓单206590（+14360）。

原料：生胶片53.22（+0.42），杯胶45.7（+0.2），胶水48（0），烟片56.8（+0.25）。

截止12月23日，国内全钢胎开工率为63.86%（+0.86%），国内半钢胎开工率为63.75%(-0.25%）。

观点：橡胶基本面变化不大，目前供需矛盾不突出下，但因国内船期的影响，国内进口橡胶到港量入不敷出导致港口库存延续去化，本周胶价的强势或主要来自该因素的支撑。同时，云南疫情的反复使得指标胶的进入受到影响也是本周价格反弹的推动因素，疫情防控常态化下，预计总体影响有限。需求淡季下，预计胶价上行空间有限，维持区间震荡思路。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：疫情反复，期现价差持续拉大，需求示弱等。

原油：EIA原油与成品油库存下降

昨日EIA公布库存数据，其中原油库存与成品油库存继续下降，12月的原油库存下降是季节性的，因为在油价上涨年份，炼厂基于库存税以及会计准则需要在年底前尽量把原料库存压低，让公司财报更加好看，从而推高公司股价，而炼厂高管的薪酬通常也与公司股价挂钩。成品油库存方面，主要是消费端依然健康，虽然美国新冠感染人数持续增加，但从高频数据来看，如交通拥堵指数以及机场安检人数，均仍处于高位，未受到显著影响，此外圣诞元旦假日期间的出行需求也支撑了交通消费，成品油库存仍旧维持在相对低位。

策略：中性，行情走势偏震荡

风险：中东地缘政治风险

铜：风险情绪及通胀预期持续 铜价守7万关口

观点：

宏观方面，美国11月成屋签约销售指数环比意外下滑2.2%，远逊于前值的增长7.5%，受累于房价高企和库存偏低。美国11月商品贸易逆差创新高，全年势将刷新历史纪录，因进口额大幅增至最高，更大的贸易逆差将连续第五个季度对美国GDP构成拖累，但也反映出强劲的消费需求和商业投资。能源方面，欧洲天然气连跌六日至三周低位，创一年多最长连跌周期，俄罗斯总统普京周三称，连接俄罗斯和德国的“北溪-2”天然气管道项目已准备就绪，只要欧洲批准，俄罗斯有产能可以增加天然气出口。疫情方面，奥密克戎蔓延令全球新增确诊连续第二天突破100万，世卫组织称穆德尔塔和奥密克戎毒株对全球疫情造成“双重威胁”。但投资者目前普遍认为，奥密克戎变体可能不会给全球商业活动和人口流动带来严格限制，提振风险情绪。

基本面来看，沪铜市场年末临近货源偏紧，持货商挺价意愿加强，沪铜升贴水上升；广东电解铜库存结束两连增再度回落，并创下近期新低，但年末更多的贸易商已经关账，整体交投氛围愈发淡静，成交不佳，华南铜升贴水走低。废铜方面，铜价小幅回调，精废价差回落合理区间下方。进口方面，进口窗口关闭，LME0-3持续Back结构。库存方面，LME小幅去库，SHFE小幅累库。

整体看来，风险情绪持续，铜价守7万关口。由于原油价格持续上行推升通胀预期，故此铜价维持逢低吸入的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 库存拐点 2.美元指数走势 3.疫情风险加剧

PTA：PTA加工费持续坚挺

一、PX提负仍慢

前期低加工费背景下，韩国装置大部分降至8成附近运行，印度OMPL重启推迟，恒力475万吨PX，12月23日负荷下调15-20%，恢复时间待定。浙石化PX900万吨负荷仍在65%至70%，提负仍偏慢。浙石化未满负荷背景下，亚洲PX1-2月偏微幅去库，PX加工费无压缩动能。

二、PTA加工费持续坚挺

（1）PTA开工率已恢复至短期高位，恒力下年长约签订进度仍慢，若1月仍未顺利签订，或后续贸易商环节的流通量或有所收紧，导致PTA加工费仍持续坚挺。

平衡表展望：12月小幅去库周期，但1月进入季节性累库阶段。

策略建议：（1）单边观望。PTA加工费短期偏高，PX加工费仍偏低。（2）跨期套利：观望。

风险：原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂长约签订进度，浙石化PX新装置提负进度，聚酯工厂减产力度。