Iron Ore: Tangshan's resumption of production and stock replenishment during the Spring Festival have given iron ore a good start.

Logic and perspective:

Yesterday, Msteel conducted a survey on the resumption of production of 126 blast furnaces in 25 steel plants in Tangshan area. Since January 1, 2022, a total of 13 blast furnaces have resumed production, with a resumed production volume of 17,172 m³, and an average daily molten iron production capacity of approximately 44,100 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was approximately 66% yesterday, an increase of 11.06% from the survey last Thursday, and a decrease of 14.56% from the same period last year. As of the close, the iron ore 2205 contract closed at 689 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. Yesterday, the Steel Union announced the iron ore shipments last week. Statistics show that 34.67 million tons were shipped globally, an increase of 10,000 tons on a weekly basis. Australia shipped 21.22 million tons, an increase of 1.66 million tons on a weekly basis. Brazil shipped 6.74 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.24 million tons. Non-mainstream shipments amounted to 6.71 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 410,000 tons. The total volume of 45 port iron ore arrivals was 24.97 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons on a weekly basis. In terms of spot, the price of imported iron ore from Jingtang Port rose by 2-15 yuan/ton throughout the day. Market sentiment was relatively positive, transactions were active, and spot prices rose overall.

On the whole, the Central Economic Work Conference requires all regions and departments to take the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy and actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability. The crude steel production restriction task has been completed ahead of schedule, and it is expected that the future production restriction will become more moderate. Although iron ore is still in a state of high inventory, if the consumption of thread and hot-rolled coil continues to improve, it is expected to be quickly transmitted to the mine end (destocking) after the release of output control. Long-flow steel mills’ immediate profits are still high, coupled with the steel mill’s expected resumption of production and restocking before the Spring Festival, it is still expected to boost ore prices.

Strategies:

Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks: The implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production restriction policy, the risk of rising ocean freight, etc.

Rubber: The demand was weak, and the price of rubber pulled back from high.

On January 4, the most-active RU contract closed at 14695 (-160) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13025 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1045 yuan/ton (-40); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 103265 (-1792) lots, the short position was 163218 (+6519) lots, and the net short position was 59953 (+8311) lots.

On January 4, the most-active NR contract closed at 11595 (-120) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,765 (-10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,755 (-10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,785 (-10) US dollars/ton.

As of December 31: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 230855 (+2800)tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 208410 (+1820)tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 53.2 (-0.68), cup lump 46.15 (+0.13), latex 49 (+1), RSS3 57.36 (+0.71).

As of December 23, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 61.72% (-2.14%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 63.7% (-0.05%).

Opinion: Driven by the warmer overseas markets during the holidays, the price of rubber opened up yesterday and then fell. The current pressure on rubber comes mainly from industrial hedging, and there are still arbitrage profits for non-standard spreads. The current rubber market is still mixed with long and short strategies. Weak demand has led to high inventory of finished products in tire factories, restricting their raw material procurement needs. The postponement of shipping schedules has resulted in low domestic arrivals and continued destocking of domestic port inventories. The price of rubber is expected to maintain range fluctuations in the general direction. However, based on expectations that demand will improve after the year, investors are advised to go long when price hits a low level.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks:

1. Epidemic recurring

2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen

3. Weak demand

Crude oil: API crude oil inventories continued to decline.

From the perspective of high-frequency liquidity data, in terms of the number of flights and jet fuel consumption, as of December 31, the number of global flights has increased for three consecutive weeks. The number of international and domestic flights both increased, and the increase in international flights was greater than that of domestic flights, mainly because European and American countries opened cross-border travel windows during Christmas, which increased the number of travellers during holidays. At present, although some countries have tightened their anti-epidemic measures, they have limited impact on short-term jet fuel consumption. Need to pay attention to whether there will be a decline in the number of global flights after the holidays. However, judging from the current epidemic situation, the decline will not be very significant, but it will bring a certain drag on the pace of recovery of long-term jet fuel consumption.

In terms of land transportation, the three high-frequency indicators, TomTom Traffic Congestion Index, Apple and Google liquidity have not seen a significant impact of the epidemic on the demand side. Although in the last week of the year, Google’s liquidity index dropped by nearly 13% and Apple’s liquidity index dropped by 4%, it was mainly due to holidays and the seasonal decline in the past few years was basically similar. Therefore, excluding holiday factors, the Ome Keron epidemic has a very limited impact on short-term demand. This is mainly because the symptoms are mild and the prevention and control measures in various countries have not been significantly upgraded. In addition, travel demand during holidays has also hedged part of the impact of the epidemic. In summary, Omi Keron's impact on short-term aviation and land transportation consumption is limited, and it is far lower than market expectations when the epidemic first broke out. This is the main logic driving the repair of low crude oil prices.

Strategy: tend to be neutrally bullish in the short term; Oil prices are currently at the upper edge of the range, investors can go short positions in the medium term

Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

Copper: OPEC approved an increase in production in February, but crude oil prices remained stable.

View:

In terms of economic data yesterday, the US December ISM manufacturing PMI index recorded 58.7, which was lower than the expected 60.1 and the lowest since January last year. Bloomberg News commented that the Omi Keron variant may have a greater impact on ISM data in the next few months. In addition, OPEC+ approved a 400,000 barrels per day production increase plan in February at a meeting on Tuesday, insisting on gradually resuming the output that was stopped during the epidemic. However, crude oil prices remained relatively strong yesterday.

From a fundamental point of view, the air-conditioning sales data for November 2021 announced yesterday reached 11.955 million units, an increase of 17.79% month-on-month and 7.6% year-on-year. Cumulative production from January to November was 142.478 million units, an increase of 7.89% year-on-year. On the supply side, Las Bambas is tentatively scheduled to resume operations in the near future. As of now, the mine has been blocked for 41 days and ceased operations for 13 days. Domestically, cargo transportation at Erlian Port has resumed, but imports are still closed. In terms of TC, the TC price of imported mines rose slightly by US$0.88/ton to US$62.90/ton last week. It is expected that with the normalization of overseas mine supply and domestic port logistics this week, there is still a possibility of a slight rebound in TC prices.

On the demand side as a whole, after the domestic spot price exceeded 70,000 yuan/ton, the downstream purchasing sentiment was once again depressed, and many copper rod companies had significantly increased their inventories. Some companies chose to reduce the risk of increased inventory through production cuts, causing the operating rate of copper rods to continue to decline last week. As the Spring Festival is approaching and the downstream procurement is currently relatively cautious, the demand-side outlook is hard to be optimistic for the time being.

On the whole, the copper price is holding the 70,000 mark, and the fundamentals are relatively neutral. However, as crude oil prices continue to rise and push up inflation expectations, it is recommended to maintain a bargain-hunting attitude towards copper prices.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Inflection point of inventory

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: PX processing fees rebounded rapidly.

1. PX processing fees are rising rapidly.

Under the background of low processing costs in the early stage, most of the Korean installations have reduced the production load to around 70% - 80%. India's OMPL restart is postponed. Hengli's 4.75 million tons of PX production capacity has been reduced by 15-20% on December 23, and the recovery time is yet to be determined. Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX 9 million tons production load is still 65% to 70%, and the speed of increasing the production load is still slow. Under the background of Zhejiang Petrochemical's under-full load, Asia's PX will slightly destock from January to February.

2. PTA processing fees are still supported.

(1) The PTA operating rate has returned to a short-term high, and Hengli’s progress in signing the long-term contract next year is still slow. If the signing is still not successful in January, the circulation of subsequent traders may be tightened, and the PTA processing fee will be supported.

3. The terminal production load is still low, but the progress of the filament production reduction is not as good as expected.

Balance sheet outlook: It is expected that the inventory will be slightly destocked in December, but it will enter the seasonal accumulation of inventory in January.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. PTA processing fees are still strong in the short term, and PX processing fees continue to rebound.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA factory long-term contract signing progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿石：唐山复产叠加春节补库，铁矿石喜迎开门红

逻辑和观点：

昨日，Msteel对唐山地区25家钢厂126座高炉进行了复产情况调研：自2022年1月1日至今，共计复产13座高炉，复产容积17172m³，释放日均铁水产能约4.41万吨。当日高炉产能利用率约为66%，较上周四调研上升11.06%，较去年同期下降14.56%。截止收盘，铁矿石2205合约收于689元/吨，较前日上涨9元/吨；昨日钢联公布了上周铁矿石发运情况，数据显示：新口径全球发运3467万吨，周度环比增加1万吨， 新口径澳洲发运2122万吨，周度环比增加166万吨。

新口径巴西发运674万吨，周度环比减少124万吨， 非主流发运671万吨，周度环比减少41万吨。45港铁矿石到港总量2497万吨，周度环比增加400万吨。现货方面，京唐港进口铁矿全天价格上涨2-15元/吨。市场交投情绪较为积极，成交活跃，现货价格整体上涨。

整体来看，中央经济工作会议要求，明年经济工作要稳字当头、稳中求进，各地区各部门要担负起稳定宏观经济的责任，各方面要积极推出有利于经济稳定的政策，政策发力适当靠前；粗钢压产任务已提前完成，预计后期限产将变得更为温和，虽然铁矿仍在高库存状态，如果成材消费持续向好，有望在产量管制放松后快速向矿端传导（去库）。长流程钢厂即期利润依旧偏高，叠加钢厂的复产预期，且春节前例行补库，仍有望提振矿价。

策略：

单边：震荡偏强

跨期：无

跨品种：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：需求偏弱，胶价冲高回落

4号，RU主力收盘14695（-160）元/吨，混合胶报价13025元/吨（0），主力合约基差-1045元/吨（-40）；前二十主力多头持仓103265（-1792），空头持仓163218（+6519），净空持仓59953（+8311）。

4号，NR主力收盘价11595（-120）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1765（-10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1755美元/吨（-10），印尼标胶1785（-10）美元/吨。

截至12月31日：交易所总库存230855（+2800），交易所仓单208410（+1820）。

原料：生胶片53.2（-0.68），杯胶46.15（+0.13），胶水49（1），烟片57.36（+0.71）。

截止12月30日，国内全钢胎开工率为61.72%（-2.14%），国内半钢胎开工率为63.7%(-0.05%）。

观点：在假期外盘市场偏暖的带动下，昨天胶价开盘冲高而后回落，目前橡胶的压力主要来自产业套保，目前非标价差仍有套利利润。当前橡胶依然是多空并存，需求的疲弱导致轮胎厂成品库存高企，限制其原料采购需求，船期推迟带来的国内到港量始终没有上来，也带来国内港口库存延续去化。预计胶价大方向维持区间震荡，但基于年后需求改善预期，重心上移下，逢低做多。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：疫情反复，期现价差持续拉大，需求示弱等。

原油：API原油库存继续下降

从高频流动性数据来看，航班数量与航煤消费方面，截至12月31日，全球航班数量已经连续三周增加，国际航班与国内航班数量均出现增加，国际航班增幅大于国内航班数量，主要是欧美国家在圣诞期间开放了跨国旅行窗口，节假日期间出行人员增加，目前来看，虽然部分国家防疫措施收紧，但对于短期航煤消费影响有限，需要关注节假日过后，全球航班数量是否会出现下降，不过从目前的疫情形势来看，降幅不会非常显著，但对于远期航煤消费复苏节奏带来一定拖累。陆上交通方面，三大高频指标，TomTom交通拥堵指数、Apple和Google流动性均未看到疫情对需求端的显著冲击，虽然在年前最后一周谷歌流动性指数下降了近13%，苹果流动性指数下降了4%，但主要是节假日影响，与过去几年中季节性下降幅度基本相近，因此剔除节假日因素来看，奥密克戎疫情对于短期的需求冲击也非常有限，主要是因为症状偏轻，各国内部的防控措施没有显著升级，此外节假日前夕的出行需求也对冲了一部分疫情影响。综上所述，奥密克戎对于短期航空以及陆上交通消费的影响均有限，也远低于疫情刚刚爆发时的市场预期，这是驱动原油价格低位修复的主要逻辑。

策略：短期中性偏强，油价位于区间上沿，中期空头对待

风险：中东地缘政治风险

铜：OPEC批准2月增产 但原油价格依旧稳定

观点：

昨日经济数据方面美国12月ISM制造业PMI指数录得58.7，低于预期的60.1。为去年1月来新低，彭博新闻社点评称，奥密克戎变异株可能在未来几个月对ISM数据产生更大的影响。此外，欧佩克+在周二的一次会议上批准了2月40万桶/日的增产计划，坚持逐步恢复在疫情期间停止的产出。不过原油价格昨日依然维持相对强劲势头。这对于铜品种具有相对正向的映射作用。

基本面来看，昨日公布的2021年11月空调销量数据达到1,195.50万台，环比增加17.79%，同比增7.6%。1-11月累计产量为14,247.80万台，同比增7.89%。供应端，Las Bambas暂定将于近期恢复运营，截至目前，该矿被堵路41天，停止运营13天。冶炼厂维持正常投料。国内方面，二连口岸的在港货物运输恢复，但是进口仍然关闭。在TC方面，上周进口矿TC价格小幅上涨0.88美元/吨至62.90美元/吨。预计本周随着海外矿端供应以及国内港口物流的正常化，TC价格仍存在小幅回升的概率。

需求端整体而言，国内现货价格超过 70000 元/吨后，令下游采购情绪再度受抑，不少铜杆企业库存明显增加，部分企业选择通过减产控制库存增加带来的风险，上周铜杆开工率持续下滑。由于春节逐渐临近叠加下游采购目前相对谨慎的背景，需求端展望暂时难言乐观。

整体看来，铜价守7万关口，基本面影响相对中性。但由于原油价格持续上行推升通胀预期，故此铜价维持逢低吸入的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 库存拐点 2.美元指数走势 3.疫情风险加剧

PTA：中金检修推迟，PX加工费快速反弹

一、PX加工费快速走强

（1）前期低加工费背景下，韩国装置大部分降至7-8成运行，印度OMPL重启推迟，恒力475万吨PX，12月23日负荷下调15-20%，恢复时间待定。浙石化PX900万吨负荷仍在65%至70%，提负仍偏慢。浙石化未满负荷背景下，亚洲PX1-2月偏微幅去库，PX加工费无压缩动能。（2）中金石化160万吨原1月上中旬检修计划再度推迟，PX加工费快速反弹。

二、PTA加工费仍有支撑

（1）PTA开工率已恢复至短期高位，恒力下年长约签订进度仍慢，若1月仍未顺利签订，或后续贸易商环节的流通量或有所收紧，支撑PTA加工费。

三、终端负荷仍偏低，但长丝减产进度不及预期

平衡表展望：12月小幅去库周期，但1月进入季节性累库阶段。

策略建议：（1）谨慎偏多。PTA加工费短期仍偏强，PX加工费持续反弹。（2）跨期套利：观望。

风险：原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂长约签订进度，浙石化PX新装置提负进度，聚酯工厂减产力度。