Iron Ore: Steel production continued to recover, and iron ore futures returned to 700 points.

Logic and perspective:

Yesterday, the Steel Union announced the production and sales of the five building materials commonly used in construction this week. The data shows that the total output of the five major materials is 9.28 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons on a week-on-week basis. Among them, the thread output was 2.81 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons on a week-on-week basis. The production of hot-rolled coils was 3.06 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons on a week-on-week basis. The output has recovered slightly for two consecutive weeks. The resumption of production at the steel plant has been confirmed and has been recognized by the market. In terms of consumption, the consumption of the five building materials commonly used in construction this week was 9.09 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons on a week-on-week basis. In the traditional off-season, steel consumption rose instead of falling, which greatly increased the drive for raw materials to rise. Yesterday, iron ore futures remained strong, and the main 05 contract regained its 700 points. As of the close, the iron ore 2205 contract closed at 717 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of transactions, a total of 1.58 million tons of iron ore mines across the country were traded, and a total of 1.49 million tons of forward spot transactions (11 transactions).

On the whole, the Central Economic Work Conference requires all regions and departments to take the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy and actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability. The crude steel production restriction task has been completed ahead of schedule, and it is expected that the future production restriction will become more moderate. Although iron ore is still in a state of high inventory, if the consumption of thread and hot-rolled coil continues to improve, it is expected to be quickly transmitted to the mine end (destocking) after the release of output control. Long-flow steel mills’ immediate profits are still high, coupled with the steel mill’s expected resumption of production and restocking before the Spring Festival, it is still expected to boost ore prices.

Strategies:

Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks: The implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production restriction policy, the risk of rising ocean freight, etc.

Rubber: The basis of the standard product strengthened slightly.

On January 6, the most-active RU contract closed at 14545 (-205) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13050 (-50) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -795 yuan/ton (+105); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 108114 (-61) lots, the short position was 167099 (+1958) lots, and the net short position was 58985 (+2019) lots.

On January 6, the most-active NR contract closed at 11470 (-240) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,775 (-15) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,770 (-10) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,785 (-15) US dollars/ton.

As of December 31: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 230855 (+2800) tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 208410 (+1820) tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 53.55 (0), cup lump 47.05 (+0.4), latex 52.8 (+1.3), RSS3 57.8 (-0.13).

As of December 23, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 61.72% (-2.14%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 63.7% (-0.05%).

Opinion: As the downstream enters the off-season, especially domestic tire factories are expected to gradually reduce production load in the middle of this month, short-term weak demand will put rubber prices under certain pressure. Therefore, the domestic port inventory as of last weekend continued to destock, but the decline has slowed down. At present, the problem of delayed shipping schedule has not been clearly resolved, and the market generally predicts that the turning point of accumulated inventory will be after the Spring Festival holiday. At present, the fundamentals of rubber have not changed much, and the supply pressure is not much. The weak demand and the improvement in demand expectations after the year will make the market price fall limited, and there might be an increase in the medium term. It is expected that market prices will maintain a volatile pattern, and investors are advised to adopt bargain-hunting strategies.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks:

1. Epidemic recurring

2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen

3. Weak demand

Crude oil: The market is concerned about supply disruptions in oil-producing countries.

The recent supply situation in Libya and Kazakhstan has caused market concerns, and geopolitical premiums have once again returned to the oil market. In Libya, previous production was 1.1 million barrels per day. At present, due to the shutdown of oil fields, production has fallen by nearly 500,000 barrels per day. In Kazakhstan, due to public protests against rising fuel prices, domestic riots have been triggered, and the riots have spread to oil cities in the west. Chevron said it will temporarily change the output of the Tengiz oil field, and the current impact on actual production needs to be further clarified. Kazakhstan’s crude oil production is about 1.6 million barrels per day, and its crude oil is mainly supplied to European refineries, especially the Mediterranean. Therefore, supply disturbances in Libya and Kazakhstan are the most beneficial to Brent Oil. From the perspective of recent performance, the inter-month spread structure of Brent Oil is also significantly stronger than that of U.S. Oil and Dubai. However, we still need to pay attention to geopolitics and the continuity of sudden supply disruptions. If the impact on supply exceeds expectations, we believe that OPEC may increase production in the future.

Strategy: tend to be neutrally bullish in the short term; Oil prices are currently at the upper edge of the range, investors can go short positions in the medium term

Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

Copper: Copper: The Fed's hawkish voice continues, and copper prices fluctuate at low levels.

View:

On the macro side, after the Fed’s meeting minutes released hawkish signals, the yields of European and American bonds continued to rise, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yields stabilizing above 1.70%, continuing to refresh their nine-month highs. The 10-year German bond yield rose to its highest level since May 2019. The U.S. dollar index rose slightly overall, close to the intraday high since late December last year, stabilizing above 96. St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad said that the Fed may raise interest rates for the first time in March and then begin to shrink its balance sheet. Given the current standing repurchase arrangements, the balance sheet may even fall below the pre-epidemic level. If inflation eases, interest rate hikes can be slowed down in the second half of the year. San Francisco Fed Chairman Daly also believes that the normalization of the balance sheet will be carried out after raising interest rates. She said that for a long time, the inflation rate has been higher than its acceptable level.

From a fundamental point of view, Shanghai copper fell, and downstream purchases and traders performed more positively. In addition, the import window continued to be closed, and the premiums and discounts of Shanghai copper rose under the tone of tight supply. Guangdong's electrolytic copper inventory continued to decline slightly, but it was still above 10,000 tons. Due to the limited supply of tradable supplies, the premium of South China Copper rose sharply. In terms of scrap copper, the spread between refined copper and scrap continued to stay above a reasonable range. In terms of imports, LME0-3 continued to have a Back structure, the import window was closed, and market trading continued to remain insipid. In terms of inventory, LME destocks, and SHFE maintains the inventory level of the previous trading day.

On the whole, the Fed’s hawkish voice continues and copper prices fluctuate.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Inflection point of inventory

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: PX and PTA processing fees continue to be firm.

1. PX processing fees rebounded strongly.

(1) Under the background of low processing costs in the early stage, most of the Korean installations have reduced the production load to around 70% - 80%. India's OMPL restart is postponed. Hengli's 4.75 million tons of PX production capacity has been reduced by 15-20% on December 23, and the recovery time is yet to be determined. Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX 9 million tons production load is still 65% to 70%, and the speed of increasing the production load is still slow. Under the background of Zhejiang Petrochemical's under-full load, Asia's PX will slightly destock from January to February, and PX processing fees rebounded strongly.

(2) Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million tons production capacity restart plan was postponed to mid-January.

2. PTA processing fees are still supported.

(1) The PTA operating rate has returned to a short-term high, and Hengli’s progress in signing the long-term contract next year is still slow. If the signing is still not successful in January, the circulation of subsequent traders may be tightened, and the PTA processing fee will be supported.

3. The terminal production load is still low, but the progress of the filament production reduction is not as good as expected.

Balance sheet outlook: It is expected that it will enter the seasonal accumulation phase in January, but the accumulation rate of inventory is controllable.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. PTA processing fees are still strong in the short term, and PX processing fees continue to rebound.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA factory long-term contract signing progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿石：钢材产量持续恢复，铁矿期货重返700点

逻辑和观点：

昨日，钢联公布了本周五大材产销存情况，数据显示：五大材总产量928万吨，周环比增加24万吨，其中螺纹产量281万吨，周环比增加11万吨，热卷产量306万吨，周环比增加9万吨，产量已经连续两周小幅恢复，钢厂复产即为事实，并得到了市场认可。消费方面，本周五大材消费909万吨，周环比增加4万吨，传统淡季里，钢材消费不降反升，极大的提升了原料上涨动能，昨日铁矿石期货强势不改，主力05合约重新站上700点。截止收盘，铁矿石2205合约收于717元/吨，较前日上涨22元/吨。成交方面，昨日全国主港铁矿累计成交158万吨，远期现货累计成交149万吨（11笔）。

整体来看，中央经济工作会议要求，明年经济工作要稳字当头、稳中求进，各地区各部门要担负起稳定宏观经济的责任，各方面要积极推出有利于经济稳定的政策，政策发力适当靠前；粗钢压产任务已提前完成，预计后期限产将变得更为温和，虽然铁矿仍在高库存状态，如果成材消费持续向好，有望在产量管制放松后快速向矿端传导（去库）。长流程钢厂即期利润依旧偏高，叠加钢厂的复产预期及春节前例行补库，仍有望提振矿价。

策略：

单边：震荡偏强

跨期：无

跨品种：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：标品基差小幅走强

6号，RU主力收盘14545（-205）元/吨，混合胶报价13050元/吨（-50），主力合约基差-795元/吨（+105）；前二十主力多头持仓108114（-61），空头持仓167099（+1958），净空持仓58985（+2019）。

6号，NR主力收盘价11470（-240）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1775（-15）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1770美元/吨（-10），印尼标胶1785（-15）美元/吨。

截至12月31日：交易所总库存230855（+2800），交易所仓单208410（+1820）。

原料：生胶片53.55（0），杯胶47.05（+0.4），胶水52.8（+1.3），烟片57.8（-0.13）。

截止12月30日，国内全钢胎开工率为61.72%（-2.14%），国内半钢胎开工率为63.7%(-0.05%）。

观点：因下游步入淡季，尤其国内轮胎厂预计本月中旬将开始陆续降负荷，短期需求偏弱将使得橡胶价格有一定承压。因此，截止上周末的国内港口库存延续去化，但降幅有所放缓，目前船期推迟的问题仍没有明显解决，市场总体预计累库拐点将在国内春节假期后。目前橡胶基本面变化不大，供应压力不大，需求的现实弱和年后需求预期改善将使得盘面价格下跌有限，中线有上涨预期。预计价格维持重心上移的震荡格局，建议逢低买入策略为主。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：疫情反复，期现价差持续拉大，需求示弱等。

原油：市场关注产油国供应中断情况

近期利比亚与哈萨克斯坦的供应情况引发市场担忧，地缘政治溢价再度重返石油市场。利比亚方面，此前产量在110万桶/日，目前由于油田停产问题，导致产量下降近50万桶/日，哈萨克斯坦方面，由于民众抗议燃料价格上涨引发国内暴乱，且暴乱已经蔓延至西部的石油城市，雪佛龙称将暂时改变Tengiz油田的产量，目前对实际产量的影响有待进一步明确，哈国原油产量约为160万桶/日，是前苏联地区除俄罗斯以外的第二大产油国，其生产的原油主要供给欧洲尤其是地中海炼厂，因此利比亚与哈萨克斯坦的供应扰动对布油最为利多，而从近期的表现来看，布油月差结构也要显著强于美油和Dubai。但目前仍需要关注地缘政治以及突发供应中断的持续性，如果对供应的影响超预期，我们认为不排除未来欧佩克可能提高增产幅度。

策略：短期中性偏强，油价位于区间上沿，中期空头对待

风险：中东地缘政治风险

铜：美联储鹰派声音持续，铜价低位震荡

观点：

宏观方面，美联储会议纪要释放鹰派信号后，欧美国债收益率持续攀升，基准10年期美债收益率站稳1.70%上方，继续刷新九个月来高位，10年期德债收益率升至2019年5月以来高位，美元指数总体小幅上涨，盘中接近去年12月下旬以来高位，稳处96上方。圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示，美联储可能会在3月首次加息，之后开始缩表。鉴于目前存在常备回购安排，资产负债表甚至可能降至疫情前水平以下。如果通胀缓和，下半年可以放慢加息步伐。旧金山联储主席戴利也认为，资产负债表正常化将在提高利率之后进行。她称，长期以来，通货膨胀率一直高于其所能接受的水平。

基本面来看，沪铜回落，下游补货表现积极，贸易商接货也较为积极，外加进口窗口持续关闭，在货源偏紧的基调下，沪铜升贴水上升；广东电铜库存继续小幅下降，但仍在1万吨以上。由于可流通货源有限，华南铜升水大幅走高。废铜方面，精废价差持续在合理区间上方。进口方面，LME0-3持续Back结构，进口窗口关闭，市场交投延续冷清态势。库存方面，LME去库，SHFE维持上一交易日库存水平。

整体看来，美联储鹰派声音持续，铜价震荡。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 库存拐点 2.美元指数走势 3.疫情风险加剧

PTA：PX及PTA加工费持续坚挺

一、PX加工费强势反弹

（1）前期低加工费背景下，韩国装置大部分降至7-8成运行，印度OMPL重启推迟，恒力475万吨PX，12月23日负荷下调15-20%，恢复时间待定。前期PX加工费过低，韩国供应商对PTA工厂的长约签订不积极，市场担忧更多亏损性减产出现，PX加工费强势反弹。浙石化PX900万吨负荷仍在65%至70%，提负仍偏慢。浙石化未满负荷背景下，亚洲PX1-2月小幅去库，PX加工费超跌反弹。（2）中金石化160万吨原1月上中旬检修计划再度推迟，浙石化200万吨重启计划推迟至1月中。

二、PTA加工费仍有支撑

（1）PTA开工率已恢复至短期高位，恒力下年长约签订进度仍慢，若1月仍未顺利签订，或后续贸易商环节的流通量或有所收紧，支撑PTA加工费。

三、终端负荷仍偏低，但长丝减产进度不及预期

平衡表展望：1月预期进入季节性累库阶段，但累库速率可控。

策略建议：（1）谨慎偏多。PTA加工费短期仍偏强，PX加工费持续反弹。（2）跨期套利：观望。

风险：原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂长约签订进度，浙石化PX新装置提负进度，聚酯工厂减产力度。