Iron Ore: Steel production continued to recover, with iron ore futures back at 700.

The main logic of market trading last week was the resumption of production at steel mills. According to the steel production and sales data released by the Steel Valley Network and the Iron and Steel Association, the output has increased. At the same time, the average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.085 million tons, a weekly increase of 55,000 tons. While trading resumes, another important factor is that the Spring Festival is approaching. Driven by high profits, steel mills have a strong demand for restocking of raw materials. As a result, iron ore futures remained strong last week, rising above 700 points again. As of the close, the main iron ore 2205 contract closed at 719 points, up 39 points from the previous week.

In terms of supply, Mysteel surveyed that from December 27th to January 2nd, the total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 27.959 million tons, an increase of 415,000 tons from the previous week. Australia shipped 21.217 million tons, an increase of 1.656 million tons from the previous week. Among them, Australia sent 17.652 million tons to China, an increase of 2.275 million tons from the previous month. Brazil shipped 6.742 million tons, down 1.241 million tons from the previous week.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 74.20%, an increase of 3.19% from last week and a decrease of 16.01% from last year. The utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 77.89%, an increase of 2.10% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 14.26%. The profit rate of steel mills was 83.12%, down 3.03% month-on-month and 6.49% year-on-year. The average daily production of molten iron was 2.0852 million tons, an increase of 55,100 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 367,600 tons from the same period last year. Last week, Msteel conducted a survey on the resumption of production of 126 blast furnaces in 25 steel mills in Tangshan. Since January, a total of 13 blast furnaces have resumed production, with a production volume of 17,172 m³, releasing an average daily hot metal production capacity of about 44,100 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate on that day was about 66%, an increase of 11.06% from the previous week's survey and a decrease of 14.56% from the same period last year. With the completion of the crude steel production limit task for the whole year of 2021, since the end of December, the production resumption of steel plants in various regions has become more obvious, and it is expected to be further expanded in the later period. In addition, the Spring Festival is approaching, driven by high profits, steel mills have a relatively strong demand for iron ore restocking.

In terms of inventory, according to Mysteel statistics, the inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country was 15,605.10, down 20.55 from the previous month. Among them, Australian ore 7227.58 increased by 57.71, Brazilian ore 5544.52 decreased 44.66, trade ore 9185.80 decreased 57.5, pellet 419.14 increased 6.86, concentrate 1087.40 decreased 64.02, lump ore 2244.02 decreased 35.28, coarse powder 11854.54 increased 71.89; The number of ships in port increased by 2 to 161. (Unit: 10,000 tons)

On the whole, the Central Economic Work Conference requires all regions and departments to take the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy and actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability. The crude steel production restriction task has been completed ahead of schedule, and it is expected that the future production restriction will become more moderate. Although iron ore is still in a state of high inventory, if the consumption of thread and hot-rolled coil continues to improve, it is expected to be quickly transmitted to the mine end (destocking) after the release of output control. Long-flow steel mills’ immediate profits are still high, coupled with the steel mill’s expected resumption of production and restocking before the Spring Festival, it is still expected to boost ore prices.

Strategies:

Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks: The implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production restriction policy, the risk of rising ocean freight, etc.

Rubber: Domestic demand is expected to improve.

Last week, the price of rubber continued to fluctuate, and the volatility increased. In the RU market, the competition between long and short positions is more intense. The short logic is mainly based on weak demand, while the long is based on low domestic inventories and limited supply increase. Changes in fundamentals last week mainly came from the demand side. With the advent of the off-season, the operating rate of domestic tire factories began to decline.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of January 7 was 234,800 tons (+3945), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 215,510 tons (+7100). The premium of futures market prices has brought about a continuous increase in warehouse receipts and inventories on exchanges. However, the main production areas in China have completely stopped delivery, and the increase in warehouse receipts has begun to slow down. As of January 3, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, but the decline slowed down, mainly due to the reduction in downstream purchasing demand. Due to the issue of shipping schedule, the arrival volume has not changed much, and the market expects that the accumulated inventory at the port will be after the Spring Festival holiday.

In terms of the operating rate of downstream tires, as of January 6, the operating rate of all-steel tire enterprises was 52.03% (-9.69%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 60.05% (-3.65%). The reduction in tire production load last week was mainly due to the temporary shutdown of some manufacturers during the New Year's Day holiday. As the domestic off-season and the Spring Festival holiday approach, the operating rate of tire factories may gradually decline in the later period.

Viewpoint: Rubber is currently entering a weak pattern of supply and demand. Based on domestic easing expectations, domestic demand will improve after the Spring Festival holiday. The supply mainly depends on the impact of domestic port arrivals. If not significantly improved, supply and demand are expected to improve. In the current state, we see that the price of overseas raw materials can still maintain a high position, which may indicate that the supply pressure is not great. This may be because overseas demand can better absorb the volume that cannot be imported into China. Therefore, as long as overseas demand does not drop significantly, it may be difficult for supply pressure to appear. Contradictions on the supply side may need to wait until the new season delivery begins to come to a conclusion. Therefore, we believe that under the improvement of supply and demand expectations in the later period, it is recommended that investors treat with a long thinking.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks:

1. Significant increase in domestic supply

2. The impact of the epidemic and other influences makes demand continue to show weakness

3. Money is tight.

Crude oil: Oil prices are on the strong side, but they may be running out of steam.

Oil prices were strong last week, with Brent oil breaking through US$80 per barrel, basically recovering the decline after Omicron appeared. The main drivers of this round of oil price rebound come from: 1. Demand has not been significantly affected by Omicron, and high-frequency demand indicators are still strong. 2. Negotiations with Iran are still deadlocked, and the return of Iranian oil to the market is far from expected. 3. The current oil inventory is still at a low level, and the destocking continues, and the inflection point of the inventory has not yet been seen. 4. Supply disruptions in Libya and Kazakhstan have triggered geopolitical premiums.

However, we believe that although oil prices are strong in the short term, there is no strong momentum in the medium term. The main logic is: 1. $80-85 per barrel is already the upper limit of inflation tolerance in the United States. The return of oil prices to this level does not rule out the use of policy tools by the United States to suppress oil prices again, such as increasing the number of reserves released or accelerating the pace of release. 2. According to the 2022 balance sheet forecast, crude oil will turn into oversupply in the first half of next year and enter the inflection point of accumulating inventories. 3. Sustainability of supply interruption is doubtful, and OPEC still has a large spare capacity, which can fill the current supply gap. 4. The market has Price in Iran oil temporarily unable to return to the market. But once the negotiation turns around, it will bring a staged bearishness to oil prices. Therefore, in general, although the recent demand is more than expected and the supply disturbance supports the oil price, we are still cautious. In the medium term, oil prices have reached the upper edge of the range, and the space above is expected to be relatively limited.

Strategy: tend to be neutrally bullish in the short term; Oil prices are currently at the upper edge of the range, investors can go short positions in the medium term

Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

Copper: The premium and discount quotations continued to rise, and copper prices may remain relatively strong.

Spot condition:

According to SMM News, the average price of SMM 1# Copper Cathode in the week of January 7 ran from 69,940 yuan / ton to 70,480 yuan / ton, showing a volatile weekly trend. The average premium and discount quotations of Standard-Grade Copper ran from a premium of 155 to a premium of 395 yuan / ton, showing a continuous upward trend in the middle of the week. Copper prices first fell and then rose last week. The Shanghai Copper 2202 contract ran from a minimum of 69,000 yuan to a maximum of 70,770 yuan / ton, and closed at 69,850 yuan / ton on Friday night.

View:

Copper prices rose first and then fell last week. On the one hand, amid the European energy crisis, there are concerns about the reduction of production by aluminum plants, and the continuous rise in spot electricity prices in most parts of Europe has driven the overall rise in the non-ferrous sector. On the other hand, the minutes of the Fed's December meeting suggested earlier and faster rate hikes. At the same time, some policymakers began to shrink the balance sheet shortly after the rate hike was supported. After the U.S. non-farm payrolls data was released last Friday, federal funds futures showed a 90% chance of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its March meeting, putting some pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, the TC index rose slightly, Las Bambas transportation resumed, and a large amount of copper concentrate will flow out. Protests broke out in many places in Kazakhstan, but according to the survey, the shipment and transportation of copper concentrate have not been affected so far. As of November 2021, my country imported a total of 760,000 tons of copper concentrate from Kazakhstan, accounting for 3.6% of the total imports. In terms of imports, the LME0-3Back structure continued during the week, and the import window continued to close. In terms of electrolytic copper, according to SMM, the planned output of smelters in January remained at a high level as a whole, driven by the effect of rushing production at the end of the year. At the same time, the ratio of Shanghai copper to London copper gives export opportunities, and the Winter Olympics will have limited impact on northern smelters. In terms of scrap copper, with the rebound of copper prices, the price difference between refined copper and scrap copper continued to rise, and it is currently above a reasonable range, showing the advantages of scrap copper substitution. In terms of consumption, the weekly operating rate of copper rods was 62.2%, down 4.38%, which has been falling for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to the shutdown and maintenance during the New Year's Day. As the Spring Festival is approaching, some downstream enterprises are expected to stop production after the middle of this month. In terms of inventories, global inventories remained low. Among them, LME and SHFE are all destocked, and the social library is destocked. Inventories accumulated in the bonded area last week as the import window closed. On the whole, the macro aspect is intertwined with long and short positions. Near the end of the year, demand is gradually weakening, but the low inventory level will give copper prices some support, and copper prices may continue to fluctuate.

On the whole, European energy problems have pushed up the overall price of non-ferrous metals. Near the end of the year, both supply and demand are weak, and before the inflection point of inventory appears, copper prices may continue to fluctuate on the strong side.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Inflection point of inventory

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: PX and PTA processing fees continued to firm.

Changes from last Friday compared to this Friday, TA2205 closed at 5314 yuan / ton, +296 yuan / ton from the previous week. In terms of spot, PTA is 5269 yuan/ton, which is +306 yuan/ton compared with last week. TA spot -05 basis -45 yuan / ton, +10 yuan / ton from last week. PTA spot processing fee is 732 yuan/ton, which is +87 yuan/ton compared with last week. PX943 US dollars / ton, compared with last week +45 US dollars / ton. PX processing fee is 200 US dollars / ton, +50 US dollars / ton from last week.

(1) Under the background of low processing costs in the early stage, most of the Korean installations have reduced the production load to around 70% - 80%. India's OMPL restart is postponed. Hengli's 4.75 million tons of PX production capacity has been reduced by 15-20% on December 23, and the recovery time is yet to be determined. Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX 9 million tons production load is still 65% to 70%, and the speed of increasing the production load is still slow. Under the background of Zhejiang Petrochemical's under-full load, Asia's PX will slightly destock from January to February, and PX processing fees rebounded strongly.

In terms of PX supply, CCF's PX China operating rate this week was 65.2% (+0.2%), and PX Asia's operating rate was 68.9% (-0.7%).

(1) In terms of PTA supply, CCF's PTA operating rate this week was 79.2% (-1.4%). Shenghong 2# 2.5 million tons, Yadong 700,000 tons, and Zhuhai BP 1.1 million tons recovered in early January. On January 3, the 4.5 million tons of Fuhua Chemical and Trade was overhauled for 20 days. The operating rate is still high in stages. However, the processing fee of PTA is still high this week and Hengli’s progress in signing the long-term contract next year is still slow. If the signing is still not successful in January, the circulation of subsequent traders may be tightened, and the PTA processing fee will be supported. Circulating inventory will be transferred from downstream to upstream, and the change in pricing power will support PTA processing fees, but we are also concerned about whether major manufacturers will make concessions in the future.

Overall, PX processing fees and PTA processing fees continued to be strong due to the increase in the upstream voice. Against the backdrop of rising crude oil benchmarks, PTA continued to be strong.

Balance sheet outlook: It is expected that it will enter the seasonal accumulation phase in January, but the accumulation rate of inventory is controllable.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. PTA processing fees are still strong in the short term, and PX processing fees continue to rebound.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA factory long-term contract signing progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿石：钢材产量持续恢复，铁矿石期货重返700点

上周市场交易的主要逻辑是钢厂复产，通过钢谷、钢联公布的钢材产销数据显示，产量均有所增加，同时钢联调研247家钢厂日均铁水产量208.5万吨，周度增长了5.5万吨，交易复产的同时，还有一个重要因素就是春节将至，钢厂在高利润的驱动下，对原料端的补库需求较为强烈。于是上周铁矿石期货表现仍为强劲，重新站上700点之上。截止收盘，铁矿石主力2205合约收于719点，较前一周上涨39点。

供应方面， Mysteel调研12月27日-1月2日澳洲、巴西19港铁矿发运总量2795.9万吨，环比增加41.5万吨；澳洲发运量2121.7万吨，环比增加165.6万吨；其中澳洲发往中国的量1765.2万吨，环比增加227.5万吨；巴西发运量674.2万吨，环比减少124.1万吨。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率74.20%，环比上周增加3.19%，同比去年下降16.01%；高炉炼铁产能利用率77.89%，环比增加2.10%，同比下降14.26%；钢厂盈利率83.12%，环比下降3.03%，同比下降6.49%；日均铁水产量208.52万吨，环比增加5.51万吨，同比下降36.76万吨。上周Msteel对唐山地区25家钢厂126座高炉进行了复产情况调研：进入1月份以来，共计复产13座高炉，复产容积17172m³，释放日均铁水产能约4.41万吨。当日高炉产能利用率约为66%，较前一周调研上升11.06%，较去年同期下降14.56%。随着2021年度全年的粗钢压产任务的完成，自12月底以来，各地区钢厂复产较为明显，后期有望进一步扩大，叠加春节将至，钢厂在高利润的驱动下，对铁矿石补库需求较为强劲。

库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存为15605.10，环比降20.55；日均疏港量317.65增23.59。分量方面，澳矿7227.58增57.71，巴西矿5544.52降44.66，贸易矿9185.80降57.5，球团419.14增6.86，精粉1087.40降64.02，块矿2244.02降35.28，粗粉11854.54增71.89；在港船舶数161条增2条。（单位：万吨）

整体来看，中央经济工作会议要求，明年经济工作要稳字当头、稳中求进，各地区各部门要担负起稳定宏观经济的责任，各方面要积极推出有利于经济稳定的政策，政策发力适当靠前；粗钢压产任务已提前完成，预计后期限产将变得更为温和，虽然铁矿仍在高库存状态，如果成材消费持续向好，有望在产量管制放松后快速向矿端传导（去库）。长流程钢厂即期利润依旧偏高，叠加钢厂的复产预期，且春节前例行补库，仍有望提振矿价。

策略：

单边：震荡偏强

跨期：无

跨品种：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：国内需求预期有望改善

上周胶价延续区间震荡走势，盘面波动加大，RU席位上多空争夺较为激烈，空头逻辑主要在需求偏弱，而多头则基于国内低库存以及供应增加有限，上周基本面变化主要来自于需求端，淡季来临，国内轮胎厂开工率开始下降。

国内交易所总库存截止1月7为234800吨（+3945），期货仓单量215510吨（+7100），期货盘面价格依旧升水带来交易所仓单及库存持续增加，但国内主产区全面停割，仓单增量开始放缓。截至1月3日，青岛保税区库存继续下降，但降幅有所放缓，主要因下游拿货需求减少，到港量因船期问题尚未解决，变化不大，市场预期港口累库将在春节假期后。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止1月6日，全钢胎企业开工率52.03%（-9.69%），半钢胎企业开工率60.05%（-3.65%）。上周轮胎开工降负主要是部分厂家元旦假期临时停工。随着国内淡季以及春节假期临近，后期轮胎厂开工率或将逐步回落。

观点：橡胶目前进入供需两弱格局，基于国内宽松预期，春节假期后国内需求将有改善，而供应则主要看国内港口到港量影响，如果还不能明显改善，则预期供需将有所改善。目前状态下，我们看到海外原料价格仍可以维持较高位置，或说明了供应压力并不大，或是海外需求可以较好吸收不能进入到国内的量，因此，只要海外需求没有明显回落之前，或许供应压力难以显现。供应端的矛盾或需要等到新一季开割来临，才有定论。因此，我们认为后期供需预期改善下，沪胶价格有望重心上移，建议多头思路对待。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：油价表现偏强，但或已是强弩之末

上周油价表现偏强，布油突破80美元/桶，基本收复奥密克戎出现后的下跌，此轮油价反弹的主要驱动来自：1、需求暂未受到奥密克戎的显著影响，高频需求指标依然强劲；2、伊朗谈判仍处于僵局，伊朗石油重返市场遥遥无期；3、当前石油库存仍旧处于低位，且继续去化，尚未看到库存拐点出现；4、利比亚与哈萨克斯坦出现供应扰动，引发地缘政治溢价。

但我们认为油价虽然短期偏强，但从中期来看已经处于强弩之末，主要逻辑在于：1、80-85美元/桶已经是美国的通胀容忍上限，油价回到此价位，不排除美国使用政策工具再度打压油价，如增加抛储数量或者加快抛储节奏等；2、根据2022年的平衡表预估，原油将在明年上半年转为供过于求进入累库拐点；3、供应中断持续性存疑，且欧佩克目前仍有较大的剩余产能，可以填补当前的供应缺口；4、市场已经Price in伊朗石油暂时无法重返市场，但一旦谈判出现转折，将对油价带来阶段性利空。因此，总体而言，虽然近期需求较为超预期叠加供应扰动支撑油价偏强，但我们仍旧谨慎对待，中期上看油价已经达到区间上沿，预计上方空间已经相对有限。

策略：短期中性偏强，油价位于区间上沿，中期空头对待

风险：中东地缘政治风险

铜：升贴水报价持续走高 铜价或仍维持相对偏强态势

现货情况：

据SMM讯，1月7日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于69,940元/吨至70,480元/吨，周度呈震荡走势。平水铜平均升贴水报价运行于升水155至升水395元/吨，周中呈持续上行走势。上周铜价先抑后扬，沪铜2202合约运行于最低69,000元吨至最高70,770元/吨，周五夜盘收69,850元/吨。

观点：

上周铜价先扬后抑，一方面，欧洲能源危机下对铝厂减产担忧，欧洲大部分地区即期电价的持续上涨推动有色板块整体上扬，另一方面，美联储公布的12月会议纪要暗示更早更快加息，同时部分决策者支持加息后不久开始缩表。上周五在美国非农就业数据公布后，联邦基金期货显示美联储有90%的几率在3月份的会议上加息，对铜价上方形成一定压力。基本面上，TC指数小幅上升，Las Bambas运输恢复，将有大量铜精矿流出，哈萨克斯坦多地爆发抗议活动，但据调研目前暂未影响铜精矿的发运以及运输。截止2021年11月，我国自哈萨克斯坦进口铜精矿共计76万吨，占进口总量的3.6%。进口方面，周内LME0-3Back结构持续，进口窗口持续关闭。电解铜方面，据SMM，年底赶产效应驱动下。1月份冶炼厂计划产量整体维持高位，同时沪伦比值给与出口机会，冬奥会对北方冶炼厂影响有限。废铜方面，伴随铜价反弹，精废价差持续回升，目前处合理区间上方，废铜替代优势显现。消费方面，周度铜杆开工率62.2%，下滑4.38%，已连续四周回落，主因元旦期间的停工检修。随着春节的逐渐临近，部分下游企业预计本月中旬后陆续停产。库存方面，全球库存持续低位，其中LME及SHFE均去库，社库去库，由于进口窗口关闭，保税区上周累库。整体来看，宏观方面多空交织，临近年末需求逐渐走弱，但库存维持低位给与铜价一定支撑，铜价或将持续震荡态势。

整体来看，欧洲能源问题推动有色价格整体上行，临近年末供需双弱，库存拐点尚未出现之前，铜价或将持续震荡偏强态势。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎偏多 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 累库拐点 货币政策导向 能源危机风险

PTA：PX及PTA加工费持续坚挺

上周五较本周五变化，TA2205收于5314元/吨，较前一周+296元/吨。现货方面，PTA5269元/吨，较上周+306元/吨，TA现货-05基差-45元/吨，较上周+10元/吨，PTA现货加工费732元/吨，较上周+87元/吨；PX943美元/吨，较上周+45美元/吨，PX加工费200美元/吨，较上周+50美元/吨。

PX供应方面，本周CCF的PX中国开工率65.2%（+0.2%），PX亚洲开工率68.9%（-0.7%）。前期低加工费背景下，韩国装置大部分降至7-8成运行，印度OMPL重启推迟，恒力475万吨PX，12月23日负荷下调15-20%，恢复时间待定。前期PX加工费过低，韩国供应商对PTA工厂的长约签订不积极，市场担忧更多亏损性减产出现，PX加工费强势反弹。浙石化PX900万吨负荷仍在65%至70%，提负仍偏慢。浙石化未满负荷背景下，亚洲PX1-2月小幅去库，PX加工费超跌反弹。中金石化160万吨原1月上中旬检修计划再度推迟，浙石化200万吨重启计划推迟至1月中，福佳大化及福联推迟至1月中下重启。

PTA供应方面，本周CCF的PTA开工率79.2%（-1.4%），盛虹2#250万吨、亚东70万吨、珠海BP110万吨于1月上旬恢复，福化工贸450万吨1.3兑现检修20天。开工率仍阶段性高位，然而本周PTA加工费仍高，恒力2022年长约签订进度仍慢，进入1月仍未顺利签订，后续贸易商环节的流通量或有所收紧，流通库存从中下游往上游转移，定价权的漂移支撑PTA加工费，但亦关注大厂后续会否让步。

总体来看，PX加工费及PTA加工费由于上游话语权的加大而持续坚挺，原油基准推升的背景下，PTA持续偏强。

策略：

单边：谨慎偏多。PTA加工费短期仍偏强，PX加工费持续反弹。

跨期套利：跨期套利：观望。

关注及风险点：

原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂长约签订进度，亚洲PX加工费改善后的提负速率，聚酯工厂减产力度。