Iron Ore: Shipments from Australia and Brazil fell, and iron ore supply fell.
Opinion and logic:
Yesterday, due to the continuous outbreak of epidemic cases in various places, iron ore was affected by sentiment and fluctuated at a low level. The highest price of the 05 contract was 717.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 693 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 699.5 yuan/ton, down 2.71% from the closing price of the previous trading day. Open interest 627792 lots, -19771 lots. In terms of spot, the price of iron ore imported at Qingdao Port fell slightly during the trading session, with a cumulative decline of 5-15. Now PB fines is 810-815, SSF is 505-515, and JMBF is 690-700.
In terms of supply, the arrivals of 45 ports reached 25.625 million tons, a slight increase from the previous month. However, the global shipment was 26.95 million tons, down 22.2% month-on-month. From the perspective of demand, as the Spring Festival is approaching, steel mills will still carry out a certain scale of inventory replenishment to maintain production, which will form a certain support for iron ore prices.
Taken together, shipments to Australia and Brazil have seen very significant reductions this week, down 19.2% and 22.8%, respectively. Although iron ore is still in a state of high inventory, and steel is still limited by the Winter Olympics in the first quarter, it is expected to quickly transfer to the mine end (destocking) after the relaxation of production control, which will lead to a stronger tolerance for raw materials. Future changes in iron ore inventories will be more determined by the intensity of steel consumption. At present, the consumption trend is improving. At the same time, there is still room for immediate profits of long-process steel mills. In addition, the expected resumption of production by steel mills and the routine replenishment of inventories before the Spring Festival are still expected to boost ore prices.
Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks: The implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production restriction policy, the risk of rising ocean freight, etc.
Rubber: Market prices recovered and the basis weakened slightly.
On January 10, the most-active RU contract closed at 15050 (+140) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13300 (+75) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1200 yuan/ton (-90); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 116506 (+3998) lots, the short position was 173838 (+9584) lots, and the net short position was 57332 (+5586) lots.
On January 10, the most-active NR contract closed at 11935 (+155) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,845 (+35) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,835 (+35) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,845 (+35) US dollars/ton.
As of January 7: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 234,800 tons (+3945), and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 215,510 tons (+7100).
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 53.77 (-0.38), cup lump 47.15 (+0.1), latex 51 (-2), RSS3 57.79 (-0.11).
As of January 6, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 52.03% (-9.69%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 60.05% (-3.65%).
Opinion: At present, there is a weak pattern of supply and demand in China, and the main domestic production areas have entered a comprehensive shutdown of delivery. It is expected that the increase in warehouse receipts corresponding to RU will be limited in the later period, and the pressure on market warehouse receipts will gradually ease. In addition, the domestic arrivals to ports have not risen for a long time, the inflection point of inventory accumulation in domestic ports has not yet arrived, and the domestic supply pressure is limited. On the demand side, due to the recent repeated domestic epidemics and the off-season demand, the replacement market demand is weak. In addition, as the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, domestic tire factories are expected to start reducing load in the middle of this month, and weak short-term demand will suppress rubber prices. Based on domestic macroeconomic easing expectations, it is expected that the improvement in rubber demand after the year will limit the decline in market prices, and there is an expectation of rising in the medium term. Investors are advised to maintain long thinking, but do not chase.
Strategy: Cautiously bullish
1. Epidemic recurring
2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen
3. Weak demand
Crude oil: Libyan oil supplies recover, but geopolitical risks remain.
Libyan oilfield supplies resumed. Libya's Sharara and Elephant oil fields have resumed production, with a combined output of about 400,000 barrels per day, and the 200,000 barrels per day supply disruption that was previously suspended due to pipeline maintenance has also resumed. Libya's production will recover to 1.1-1.2 million barrels per day in the short term, and the main factor leading to the unstable oil supply in Libya is still the uneven distribution of domestic oil benefits. At the end of January, the armed forces under the LNA are still likely to block the oil terminals in the east again, and the current geopolitical risk in Libya is still high.
Strategy: tend to be neutrally bullish in the short term; Oil prices are currently at the upper edge of the range, investors can go short positions in the medium term
Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East
Copper: The market trading continued to be insipid, and copper prices continued to fluctuate.
On the macro side, the market expects the U.S. CPI to rise further to 7.1% year-on-year in December, the highest in 40 years, and traders are betting on a 90% chance of raising interest rates in March this year. Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by a total of 100 basis points each in March, June, September and December, and the start of the reduction of the balance sheet will be advanced from the fourth quarter of this year to July. JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon also said that four interest rate hikes this year, hawkish monetary policy is not good for risk assets.
From a fundamental point of view, the market price has moved up slightly, plus the high premium quotations in the last week and the morning market, the downstream has taken a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, the inflow of some sources of goods has made the price support sentiment of stockholders less than last week, resulting in a decline in Shanghai copper prices. The inventory of electrolytic copper in Guangdong has increased slightly for two consecutive days, and the increase in imported arrivals is the main reason. Affected by the increase in inventories and the rise in copper prices, the number of traders increased from last Friday, and the price also experienced a relatively large correction, making the price of copper in South China fall. In terms of scrap copper, the spread between refined copper and scrap copper continued to be above a reasonable range. In terms of imports, LME0-3 continued to maintain the back structure and expanded, the import window was closed, and market transactions continued to be insipid.
In terms of inventory, on January 10, LME destocked 0.07 tons to 84,000 tons, and SHFE destocked 700 tons to 6,200 tons. On January 10, domestic social inventories (including bonded areas) rose by 2,700 tons to 289,900 tons from last week.
On the whole, the long and short influence factors are intertwined, and the copper price remains volatile.
1. Unilateral: neutral
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. Inflection point of inventory
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.
PTA: Production and sales fell at the beginning of the week, but TA processing fees remained firm.
1. The PX processing fee pulled back slightly from a high level.
(1) Most of the Korean installations have reduced the production load to around 70% - 80%. India's OMPL restart is postponed. Hengli's 4.75 million tons of PX production capacity has been reduced by 15-20% on December 23, and the recovery time is yet to be determined. In the early stage, the PX processing fee was too low, South Korean suppliers were not active in signing long-term contracts for the PTA factory, and the market was worried about more loss-making production cuts, resulting in a strong rebound in the PX processing fee. Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX 9 million tons production load is still 65% to 70%, and the speed of increasing the production load is still slow. Under the background of Zhejiang Petrochemical's under-full load, Asia's PX will slightly destock from January to February, and PX processing fees rebounded strongly. Zhongjin Petrochemical's original maintenance plan for 1.6 million tons of production capacity in early and mid-January was postponed again. Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million-ton restart plan was postponed to mid-January. Fujia Dahua and Fulian postponed their restart until mid-to-late January.
2. The PTA processing fee is strong.
Shenghong 2# 2.5 million tons, Yadong 700,000 tons, Zhuhai BP 1.1 million tons resumed production capacity in early January, and Fuhua Chemical and Trade 4.5 million tons carried out maintenance for 20 days on January 3. The operating rate is still at a staged high level, but the PTA processing fee is still high this week. The long-term contract signing process of Hengli in 2022 is still slow. If it is still not signed successfully in January, the circulation of the follow-up traders may be tightened, causing the circulation inventory to be transferred from the middle and lower reaches to the upper reaches.
3. Production and sales were weak at the beginning of the week.
(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. PTA processing fees are still strong in the short term, and PX processing fees continue to rebound.
(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.
Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA factory long-term contract signing progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.
1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
1. 库存拐点 2.美元指数走势 3.疫情风险加剧