Iron Ore: Shipments from Australia and Brazil fell, and iron ore supply fell.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, due to the continuous outbreak of epidemic cases in various places, iron ore was affected by sentiment and fluctuated at a low level. The highest price of the 05 contract was 717.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 693 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 699.5 yuan/ton, down 2.71% from the closing price of the previous trading day. Open interest 627792 lots, -19771 lots. In terms of spot, the price of iron ore imported at Qingdao Port fell slightly during the trading session, with a cumulative decline of 5-15. Now PB fines is 810-815, SSF is 505-515, and JMBF is 690-700.

In terms of supply, the arrivals of 45 ports reached 25.625 million tons, a slight increase from the previous month. However, the global shipment was 26.95 million tons, down 22.2% month-on-month. From the perspective of demand, as the Spring Festival is approaching, steel mills will still carry out a certain scale of inventory replenishment to maintain production, which will form a certain support for iron ore prices.

Taken together, shipments to Australia and Brazil have seen very significant reductions this week, down 19.2% and 22.8%, respectively. Although iron ore is still in a state of high inventory, and steel is still limited by the Winter Olympics in the first quarter, it is expected to quickly transfer to the mine end (destocking) after the relaxation of production control, which will lead to a stronger tolerance for raw materials. Future changes in iron ore inventories will be more determined by the intensity of steel consumption. At present, the consumption trend is improving. At the same time, there is still room for immediate profits of long-process steel mills. In addition, the expected resumption of production by steel mills and the routine replenishment of inventories before the Spring Festival are still expected to boost ore prices.

Strategies:

Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks: The implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production restriction policy, the risk of rising ocean freight, etc.

Rubber: Market prices recovered and the basis weakened slightly.

On January 10, the most-active RU contract closed at 15050 (+140) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13300 (+75) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1200 yuan/ton (-90); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 116506 (+3998) lots, the short position was 173838 (+9584) lots, and the net short position was 57332 (+5586) lots.

On January 10, the most-active NR contract closed at 11935 (+155) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,845 (+35) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,835 (+35) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,845 (+35) US dollars/ton.

As of January 7: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 234,800 tons (+3945), and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 215,510 tons (+7100).

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 53.77 (-0.38), cup lump 47.15 (+0.1), latex 51 (-2), RSS3 57.79 (-0.11).

As of January 6, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 52.03% (-9.69%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 60.05% (-3.65%).

Opinion: At present, there is a weak pattern of supply and demand in China, and the main domestic production areas have entered a comprehensive shutdown of delivery. It is expected that the increase in warehouse receipts corresponding to RU will be limited in the later period, and the pressure on market warehouse receipts will gradually ease. In addition, the domestic arrivals to ports have not risen for a long time, the inflection point of inventory accumulation in domestic ports has not yet arrived, and the domestic supply pressure is limited. On the demand side, due to the recent repeated domestic epidemics and the off-season demand, the replacement market demand is weak. In addition, as the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, domestic tire factories are expected to start reducing load in the middle of this month, and weak short-term demand will suppress rubber prices. Based on domestic macroeconomic easing expectations, it is expected that the improvement in rubber demand after the year will limit the decline in market prices, and there is an expectation of rising in the medium term. Investors are advised to maintain long thinking, but do not chase.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks:

1. Epidemic recurring

2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen

3. Weak demand

Crude oil: Libyan oil supplies recover, but geopolitical risks remain.

Libyan oilfield supplies resumed. Libya's Sharara and Elephant oil fields have resumed production, with a combined output of about 400,000 barrels per day, and the 200,000 barrels per day supply disruption that was previously suspended due to pipeline maintenance has also resumed. Libya's production will recover to 1.1-1.2 million barrels per day in the short term, and the main factor leading to the unstable oil supply in Libya is still the uneven distribution of domestic oil benefits. At the end of January, the armed forces under the LNA are still likely to block the oil terminals in the east again, and the current geopolitical risk in Libya is still high.

Strategy: tend to be neutrally bullish in the short term; Oil prices are currently at the upper edge of the range, investors can go short positions in the medium term

Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

Copper: The market trading continued to be insipid, and copper prices continued to fluctuate.

View:

On the macro side, the market expects the U.S. CPI to rise further to 7.1% year-on-year in December, the highest in 40 years, and traders are betting on a 90% chance of raising interest rates in March this year. Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by a total of 100 basis points each in March, June, September and December, and the start of the reduction of the balance sheet will be advanced from the fourth quarter of this year to July. JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon also said that four interest rate hikes this year, hawkish monetary policy is not good for risk assets.

From a fundamental point of view, the market price has moved up slightly, plus the high premium quotations in the last week and the morning market, the downstream has taken a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, the inflow of some sources of goods has made the price support sentiment of stockholders less than last week, resulting in a decline in Shanghai copper prices. The inventory of electrolytic copper in Guangdong has increased slightly for two consecutive days, and the increase in imported arrivals is the main reason. Affected by the increase in inventories and the rise in copper prices, the number of traders increased from last Friday, and the price also experienced a relatively large correction, making the price of copper in South China fall. In terms of scrap copper, the spread between refined copper and scrap copper continued to be above a reasonable range. In terms of imports, LME0-3 continued to maintain the back structure and expanded, the import window was closed, and market transactions continued to be insipid.

In terms of inventory, on January 10, LME destocked 0.07 tons to 84,000 tons, and SHFE destocked 700 tons to 6,200 tons. On January 10, domestic social inventories (including bonded areas) rose by 2,700 tons to 289,900 tons from last week.

On the whole, the long and short influence factors are intertwined, and the copper price remains volatile.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Inflection point of inventory

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: Production and sales fell at the beginning of the week, but TA processing fees remained firm.

1. The PX processing fee pulled back slightly from a high level.

(1) Most of the Korean installations have reduced the production load to around 70% - 80%. India's OMPL restart is postponed. Hengli's 4.75 million tons of PX production capacity has been reduced by 15-20% on December 23, and the recovery time is yet to be determined. In the early stage, the PX processing fee was too low, South Korean suppliers were not active in signing long-term contracts for the PTA factory, and the market was worried about more loss-making production cuts, resulting in a strong rebound in the PX processing fee. Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX 9 million tons production load is still 65% to 70%, and the speed of increasing the production load is still slow. Under the background of Zhejiang Petrochemical's under-full load, Asia's PX will slightly destock from January to February, and PX processing fees rebounded strongly. Zhongjin Petrochemical's original maintenance plan for 1.6 million tons of production capacity in early and mid-January was postponed again. Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million-ton restart plan was postponed to mid-January. Fujia Dahua and Fulian postponed their restart until mid-to-late January.

2. The PTA processing fee is strong.

Shenghong 2# 2.5 million tons, Yadong 700,000 tons, Zhuhai BP 1.1 million tons resumed production capacity in early January, and Fuhua Chemical and Trade 4.5 million tons carried out maintenance for 20 days on January 3. The operating rate is still at a staged high level, but the PTA processing fee is still high this week. The long-term contract signing process of Hengli in 2022 is still slow. If it is still not signed successfully in January, the circulation of the follow-up traders may be tightened, causing the circulation inventory to be transferred from the middle and lower reaches to the upper reaches.

3. Production and sales were weak at the beginning of the week.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. PTA processing fees are still strong in the short term, and PX processing fees continue to rebound.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA factory long-term contract signing progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿：澳巴发运双降 铁矿供给受挫

观点与逻辑：

昨日，因各地持续爆发的疫情病例，铁矿受情绪影响低位震荡，05合约最高价717.5元/吨，最低价693元/吨，收盘价699.5元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌2.71%；持仓量627792手，-19771手；现货方面，青岛港进口铁矿盘中价格小幅下跌，累计下跌5-15。现PB粉810-815，超特粉505-515，金布巴粉690-700。

从供给看，45港到港2562.5万吨，环比略有增加；但全球发运2695万吨，环比下降22.2%；从需求看，临近春节，钢厂仍将开展一定规模的补库来维持生产，对铁矿价格形成一定的支撑。

综合来看，本周澳洲和巴西的发运均有非常明显的减量，分别下降19.2%和22.8%；虽然铁矿仍在高库存状态，一季度钢铁也仍受冬奥会的限制，但产量管制放松后有望快速向矿端传导（去库），对原料会有更强的容忍度，后期铁矿库存变动，更多由钢材消费强度所决定，而目前来看，消费趋势向好。同时，现在长流程钢厂即期利润仍有空间，叠加钢厂的复产预期及春节前例行补库，仍有望提振矿价。

策略：

单边：震荡偏强

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：盘面价格回升，基差小幅走弱

10号，RU主力收盘15050（+140）元/吨，混合胶报价13300元/吨（+75），主力合约基差-1200元/吨（-90）；前二十主力多头持仓116506（+3998），空头持仓173838（+9584），净空持仓57332（+5586）。

10号，NR主力收盘价11935（+155）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1845（+35）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1835美元/吨（+35），印尼标胶1845（+35）美元/吨。

截至1月7日：交易所总库存234800（+3945），交易所仓单215510（+7100）。

原料：生胶片53.77（-0.38），杯胶47.15（+0.1），胶水51（-2），烟片57.79（-0.11）。

截止1月6日，国内全钢胎开工率为52.03%（-9.69%），国内半钢胎开工率为60.05%(-3.65%）。

观点：目前国内呈现供需两弱格局，国内主产区已经步入全面停割，预计后期RU对应的仓单增加有限，盘面仓单压力在逐步减缓。叠加国内到港量迟迟没有上量，国内港口库存累库拐点尚未到来，国内供应压力有限。需求端因近期国内疫情反复叠加需求淡季，替换市场需求偏弱，且临近春节假期，国内轮胎厂预计本月中旬将开始陆续降负荷，短期需求偏弱将对橡胶价格有所压制。基于国内宏观宽松预计，预计年后橡胶需求改善将使得盘面价格下跌有限，中线有上涨预期。建议保持多头思路，但不追涨。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：疫情反复，期现价差持续拉大，需求示弱等。

原油：利比亚石油供应恢复，但地缘政治风险仍存

利比亚油田供应恢复，利比亚Sharara油田与Elephant油田恢复生产，两者合计产量约40万桶/日，而此前因为管道维护导致停产的20万桶/日的供应中断也恢复，利比亚产量将在短期内恢复至110至120万桶/日，导致利比亚石油供应不稳的主要因素仍旧是国内石油利益分配不均的问题，的黎波里与LNA之间的龃龉导致相关的封锁风险依然未能彻底解决，在1月底，LNA旗下的武装势力仍旧有可能再度封锁东部的石油码头，当前利比亚的地缘政治风险仍旧偏高。

策略：短期中性偏强，油价位于区间上沿，中期空头对待

风险：中东地缘政治风险

铜：市场交投延续冷清态势 铜价持续震荡

观点：

宏观方面，市场预计美国12月CPI同比增幅进一步升至7.1%，维持40年来最高，交易员们押注的今年3月加息几率高达90%。高盛预言美联储在3、6、9和12月各加息一次共100个基点，缩表开启从今年四季度提前至7月，摩根大通CEO戴蒙也称今年加息四次，鹰派货币政策对风险资产不利。

基本面来看，盘面小幅上移，外加上周和早市的高升水报价，下游畏高纷纷驻足观望，且部分货源流入，令持货商挺价情绪不及上周，沪铜升贴水下行；周末归来广东电解铜库存小幅增加已经连续2天增加，进口到货增加是主因。受库存增加和铜价上升影响，出货的贸易商较上周五增加，价格也出现较大幅度的回调，华南铜升贴水下行。废铜方面，精废价差持续在合理区间上方。进口方面，LME0-3持续Back结构并扩大，进口窗口关闭，市场交投延续冷清态势。

库存方面，1月10日，LME去库0.07吨至8.40万吨，SHFE去库0.07万吨至0.62万吨，1月10日当，国内社会库存（含保税区）较上周上涨0.27万吨至28.99万吨。

整体看来，多空影响因素交织，铜价维持震荡。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 库存拐点 2.美元指数走势 3.疫情风险加剧

PTA：周初产销回落，但TA加工费仍坚挺

一、PX加工费冲高稍回落

（1）韩国装置大部分降至7-8成运行，印度OMPL重启推迟，恒力475万吨PX，12月23日负荷下调15-20%，恢复时间待定。前期PX加工费过低，韩国供应商对PTA工厂的长约签订不积极，市场担忧更多亏损性减产出现，PX加工费强势反弹。浙石化PX900万吨负荷仍在65%至70%，提负仍偏慢。浙石化未满负荷背景下，亚洲PX1-2月小幅去库，PX加工费超跌反弹。中金石化160万吨原1月上中旬检修计划再度推迟，浙石化200万吨重启计划推迟至1月中，福佳大化及福联推迟至1月中下重启。

二、PTA加工费强势

盛虹2#250万吨、亚东70万吨、珠海BP110万吨于1月上旬恢复，福化工贸450万吨1.3兑现检修20天。开工率仍阶段性高位，然而本周PTA加工费仍高，恒力2022年长约签订进度仍慢，进入1月仍未顺利签订，后续贸易商环节的流通量或有所收紧，流通库存从中下游往上游转移，定价权的漂移支撑PTA加工费

三、周初产销偏弱

策略建议：（1）谨慎偏多。PTA加工费短期仍偏强，PX加工费持续反弹。（2）跨期套利：观望。

原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂长约签订进度，亚洲PX加工费改善后的提负速率，聚酯工厂减产力度。