Iron Ore: Driven by both supply and demand, the market price broke the previous high.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the market was affected by the short-term shipment, and the iron ore kept fluctuating and rising. The highest price of the 05 contract was 742 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 722 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 737.5 yuan/ton, up 1.94% from the closing price of the previous trading day. Open interest 664805 lots, + 13799 lots. In terms of spot, the price of iron ore imported at Qingdao Port rose throughout the day, with a cumulative increase of 15-28. Now PB fines is 845, SSF is 543, and JMBF is 1073.

From the perspective of supply, the southeastern region of Brazil, which has been greatly affected by heavy rain, accounts for 40% of Vale's total output in 21 years, and the market has obvious concerns about this. From the perspective of demand, the southern long process steel plant has shifted from the stage of overhaul to resumption of production. In addition, with the Spring Festival approaching, steel mills will still carry out a certain scale of inventory replenishment to maintain production, which will form a certain support for iron ore prices.

Taken together, shipments from Australia and Brazil have seen very significant reductions this week. Although iron ore is still in a state of high inventory, and steel is still limited by the Winter Olympics in the first quarter, it is expected to quickly transfer to the mine end (destocking) after the relaxation of production control, which will lead to a stronger tolerance for raw materials. Future changes in iron ore inventories will be more determined by the intensity of steel consumption. At present, the consumption trend is improving. At the same time, there is still room for immediate profits of long-process steel mills. In addition, the expected resumption of production by steel mills and the routine replenishment of inventories before the Spring Festival are still expected to boost ore prices.

Strategies:

Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks: The implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production restriction policy, the risk of rising ocean freight, etc.

Rubber: Demand is expected to improve, and futures prices fluctuate strongly.

On January 12, the most-active RU contract closed at 15090 (+70) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13400 (+75) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1090 yuan/ton (-70); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 117455 (+5500) lots, the short position was 179517 (+6171) lots, and the net short position was 62062 (+671) lots.

On January 12, the most-active NR contract closed at 12045 (+80) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,790 (+25) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,780 (+25) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,800 (+15) US dollars/ton.

As of January 7: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 234,800 tons (+3945), and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 215,510 tons (+7100).

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 54.5 (0), cup lump 48 (+0.1), latex 52 (+1), RSS3 58.40 (+0.3).

As of January 6, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 52.03% (-9.69%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 60.05% (-3.65%).

Opinion: Prices of raw materials in Thailand's main producing areas continued to rise yesterday. Under the peak season supply, the price of raw materials remains strong, which may reflect that the supply pressure is not great. Domestic rubber presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the main domestic production areas have entered a comprehensive delivery shutdown. In addition, the domestic arrival volume has not increased, and the inflection point of inventory accumulation in Qingdao port has not yet arrived, making the domestic supply pressure limited. The supply side has not changed much, and the actual demand is in the off-season. However, the domestic demand is expected to improve after the Spring Festival. Therefore, the supply and demand are expected to improve, which will bring about strong fluctuations in market prices. It is expected that the price will continue to be strong, and it is recommended to maintain a bullish idea.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks:

1. Epidemic recurring

2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen

3. Weak demand

Crude oil: EIA crude oil inventories fell more than expected, but gasoline inventories rose sharply.

Yesterday, the EIA released inventory data, and the overall data was better than the API. Among them, crude oil inventories fell more than expected, while refined oil inventories increased significantly, but the increase was smaller than the API. Oil inventories are accumulating inventories, especially gasoline inventories have increased significantly. The recent trend of oil prices is still on the strong side, even with the outbreak of the Omikojon epidemic in China and the continuous accumulation of inventories of refined oil products in EIA, and the previous supply cuts in Libya, Ecuador and other countries have also recovered. The reason why oil prices ignore the bearish fundamentals may be that some non-fundamental factors are at play, such as the recent position adjustment of commodity index funds and the transaction of inflation expectations.

Strategy: tend to be neutrally bullish in the short term; Oil prices are currently at the upper edge of the range, investors can go short positions in the medium term

Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

Copper: CPI data hit a new high in 40 years, and copper prices rose strongly.

View:

Macroscopically, the US December CPI data released yesterday again recorded a result of 7%, a new high in 40 years, which shows that the current inflation level seems to be difficult to effectively control in a short period of time. In addition, the Beige Book released early this morning showed that growth continued to be constrained by ongoing supply chain disruptions and labor shortages, with businesses in some regions cooling expectations for growth in the coming months. In addition, the weaker-than-expected non-agricultural data on Friday last week made the market a little worried about the future economic outlook. Combined with the current high level of inflation, the US dollar index fell sharply yesterday, which made non-ferrous metals including copper gain support.

From a fundamental point of view, in recent days, it may be due to the last replenishment of inventory before the holiday, which stimulated downstream factories to replenish inventory and slightly boosted the activity of the copper spot market. In addition, due to the limited supply of goods in the market, traders dominated the market and the sentiment of price support was strong, which led to the rise of Shanghai copper's premium and discount. Inventory of electrolytic copper in Guangdong ended two consecutive increases and declined slightly. Due to the decline in inventories and copper prices, some stockholders insisted on shipping at the original price. However, due to the low acceptance of the downstream and the poor consumption caused by the early holiday, the stockholders can only sell at a lower price. After the price cut, the transaction improved, and the premium and discount of South China copper increased. In terms of scrap copper, the spread between refined copper and scrap copper continued to be above a reasonable range. In terms of imports, the LME0-3Back structure has been reduced, the import window continued to be closed, and the market trading continued to be insipid. In terms of inventory, both LME and SHFE destocked.

In terms of inventory, on January 11, LME destocked 0.07 tons to 84,000 tons, and SHFE destocked 900 tons to 5300 tons. On January 10, domestic social inventories (including bonded areas) rose by 2,700 tons to 289,900 tons from last week.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Inflection point of inventory

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: The TA processing fee has slightly dropped from a high level.

1. The PX processing fee pulled back slightly from a high level.

(1) Most of the Korean installations have reduced the production load to around 70% - 80%. India's OMPL restart is postponed. Hengli's 4.75 million tons of PX production capacity has been reduced by 15-20% on December 23, and the recovery time is yet to be determined. In the early stage, the PX processing fee was too low, South Korean suppliers were not active in signing long-term contracts for the PTA factory, and the market was worried about more loss-making production cuts, resulting in a strong rebound in the PX processing fee. Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX 9 million tons production load is still 65% to 70%, and the speed of increasing the production load is still slow. Under the background of Zhejiang Petrochemical's under-full load, Asia's PX will slightly destock from January to February, and PX processing fees rebounded strongly. Zhongjin Petrochemical's original maintenance plan for 1.6 million tons of production capacity in early and mid-January was postponed again. Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million-ton restart plan was postponed to mid-January. Fujia Dahua and Fulian postponed their restart until mid-to-late January.

2. The PTA processing fee has been adjusted back for the first time.

(1) Since the end of December, the long-term contract signing process of Hengli in 2022 is still slow. If it is still not signed successfully in January, the circulation of the follow-up traders may be tightened, causing the circulation inventory to be transferred from the middle and lower reaches to the upper reaches.

(2) No more bullish factors appeared, and the processing fee began to fall back to around 650 yuan on Wednesday.

3. Production and sales were weak at the beginning of the week, and the terminal gradually entered the stage of holiday production reduction in the middle and late January.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. PTA processing fees are still strong in the short term, and PX processing fees continue to rebound.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA factory long-term contract signing progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿：供给需求双驱动 盘面价格破前高

观点与逻辑：

昨日，盘面受发运短期难有改善的影响，铁矿保持震荡上涨，05合约最高价742元/吨，最低价722元/吨，收盘价737.5元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨1.94%；持仓量664805手，+13799手；现货方面，青岛港进口铁矿盘中价格全天上涨，累计上涨15-28。现PB粉845，超特粉543，卡粉1073。

从供给看，受暴雨影响较大的巴西东南部地区占21年淡水河谷总产量的40%，市场担忧情绪明显；从需求看，南方长流程钢厂进入检修转复产阶段，加上临近春节，钢厂仍将开展一定规模的补库来维持生产，对铁矿价格形成一定的支撑。

综合来看，本周澳洲和巴西的发运均有非常明显的减量；虽然铁矿仍在高库存状态，一季度钢铁也仍受冬奥会的限制，但产量管制放松后有望快速向矿端传导（去库），对原料会有更强的容忍度，后期铁矿库存变动，更多由钢材消费强度所决定，而目前来看，消费趋势向好。同时，现在长流程钢厂即期利润仍有空间，叠加钢厂的复产预期及春节前例行补库，仍有望提振矿价。

策略：

单边：震荡偏强

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶： 需求预期改善，期价偏强震荡

12号，RU主力收盘15090（+70）元/吨，混合胶报价13400元/吨（+75），主力合约基差-1090元/吨（-70）；前二十主力多头持仓117455（+5500），空头持仓179517（+6171），净空持仓62062（+671）。

12号，NR主力收盘价12045（+80）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1790（+25）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1780美元/吨（+25），印尼标胶1800（+15）美元/吨。

截至1月7日：交易所总库存234800（+3945），交易所仓单215510（+7100）。

原料：生胶片54.5（0），杯胶48（+0.1），胶水52（+1），烟片58.40（+0.3）。

截止1月6日，国内全钢胎开工率为52.03%（-9.69%），国内半钢胎开工率为60.05%(-3.65%）。

观点：昨天泰国主产区原料价格继续上涨，旺季供应下，原料价格仍保持强势，或反映供应压力并不大。国内橡胶呈现供需两弱格局，国内主产区已经步入全面停割，叠加国内到港量迟迟没有上量，青岛港口库存累库拐点尚未到来，带来国内供应压力有限。供应端变化不大，现实需求处于淡季，但国内年后需求改善预期强烈，因此，供需有好转预期，带来盘面价格偏强震荡，预计价格延续强势，建议保持多头思路。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：疫情反复，期现价差持续拉大，需求示弱等。

原油：EIA原油库存降幅超预期，但汽油库存大幅增加

昨日EIA公布库存数据，整体数据好于API，其中原油库存降幅超预期，而成品油库存大幅增加，但增幅小于API，石油全口径库存呈现累库，尤其是汽油库存增幅较大。近期油价走势依然偏强，即便是中国出现奥密克戎疫情以及EIA成品油连续累库，且此前利比亚、厄瓜多尔等国家出现的断供也已经恢复，油价之所以忽视基本面上的利空，可能是一些非基本面因素在发挥作用，如近期商品指数基金仓位调整以及通胀预期交易等。

策略：短期中性偏强，油价位于区间上沿，中期空头对待

风险：中东地缘政治风险

铜：CPI数据再创40年来新高 铜价强势走高

观点：

宏观方面，昨日所公布的美国12月CPI数据再度录得7%的结果，创出40年来新高，这显示出当下的通胀水平似乎很难在短时内得到有效的控制。此外，今日凌晨所公布的褐皮书显示，增长继续受到持续的供应链中断和劳动力短缺的限制，部分地区的企业对未来几个月增长的预期有所降温，叠加上周五非农数据的不及预期，都令市场对于未来经济展望存在些许担忧，而结合目前居高不下的通胀水平，美元指数昨日出现大幅下挫，而这使得包括铜在内的有色金属获得支撑。

基本面来看，近日或许是由于节前的最后补库，刺激下游工厂补库买货，些许提振了铜现货市场活跃度，且市场货源不多，贸易商主导市场下挺价情绪强烈，沪铜升贴水上升；广东电解铜库存结束两连增，出现小幅下降。因库存和铜价均出现下降，部分持货商坚持挺价出货，但下游接受度低，并且提早放假消费不佳，持货商只能降价出货，降价后成交才有所好转，华南铜升贴水上升。废铜方面，精废价差持续在合理区间上方。进口方面，LME0-3Back结构并缩小，进口窗口持续关闭，市场交投延续冷清态势。库存方面，LME及SHFE均去库。

库存方面，1月12日，LME去库0.01吨至8.39万吨，SHFE去库0.25万吨至0.51万吨，1月10日当，国内社会库存（含保税区）较上周上涨0.27万吨至28.99万吨。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 库存拐点 2.美债收益率持续走高 3.疫情风险加剧

PTA：TA加工费高位稍回调

一、PX加工费冲高稍回落

（1）韩国装置大部分降至7-8成运行，印度OMPL重启推迟，恒力475万吨PX，12月23日负荷下调15-20%，恢复时间待定。前期PX加工费过低，韩国供应商对PTA工厂的长约签订不积极，市场担忧更多亏损性减产出现，PX加工费强势反弹。浙石化PX900万吨负荷仍在65%至70%，提负仍偏慢。浙石化未满负荷背景下，亚洲PX1-2月小幅去库，PX加工费超跌反弹。中金石化160万吨原1月上中旬检修计划再度推迟，浙石化200万吨重启计划推迟至1月中，福佳大化及福联推迟至1月中下重启。

二、PTA加工费首度回调

（1）12月底以来，恒力2022年长约签订进度仍慢，进入1月仍未顺利签订，后续贸易商环节的流通量或有所收紧，流通库存从中下游往上游转移，定价权的漂移支撑PTA加工费。（2）无更多利好的因素出现，周三加工费开始回调至650元附近。

三、产销偏弱，终端1月中下旬逐步进入放假降负阶段

策略建议：（1）谨慎偏多。PTA加工费短期仍坚挺，PX加工费亦偏强。（2）跨期套利：观望。

原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂长约签订进度，亚洲PX加工费改善后的提负速率，聚酯工厂减产力度。