Iron Ore: Driven by both supply and demand, the market price broke the previous high.
Opinion and logic:
Yesterday, the market was affected by the short-term shipment, and the iron ore kept fluctuating and rising. The highest price of the 05 contract was 742 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 722 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 737.5 yuan/ton, up 1.94% from the closing price of the previous trading day. Open interest 664805 lots, + 13799 lots. In terms of spot, the price of iron ore imported at Qingdao Port rose throughout the day, with a cumulative increase of 15-28. Now PB fines is 845, SSF is 543, and JMBF is 1073.
From the perspective of supply, the southeastern region of Brazil, which has been greatly affected by heavy rain, accounts for 40% of Vale's total output in 21 years, and the market has obvious concerns about this. From the perspective of demand, the southern long process steel plant has shifted from the stage of overhaul to resumption of production. In addition, with the Spring Festival approaching, steel mills will still carry out a certain scale of inventory replenishment to maintain production, which will form a certain support for iron ore prices.
Taken together, shipments from Australia and Brazil have seen very significant reductions this week. Although iron ore is still in a state of high inventory, and steel is still limited by the Winter Olympics in the first quarter, it is expected to quickly transfer to the mine end (destocking) after the relaxation of production control, which will lead to a stronger tolerance for raw materials. Future changes in iron ore inventories will be more determined by the intensity of steel consumption. At present, the consumption trend is improving. At the same time, there is still room for immediate profits of long-process steel mills. In addition, the expected resumption of production by steel mills and the routine replenishment of inventories before the Spring Festival are still expected to boost ore prices.
Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks: The implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production restriction policy, the risk of rising ocean freight, etc.
Rubber: Demand is expected to improve, and futures prices fluctuate strongly.
On January 12, the most-active RU contract closed at 15090 (+70) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13400 (+75) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1090 yuan/ton (-70); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 117455 (+5500) lots, the short position was 179517 (+6171) lots, and the net short position was 62062 (+671) lots.
On January 12, the most-active NR contract closed at 12045 (+80) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,790 (+25) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,780 (+25) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,800 (+15) US dollars/ton.
As of January 7: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 234,800 tons (+3945), and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 215,510 tons (+7100).
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 54.5 (0), cup lump 48 (+0.1), latex 52 (+1), RSS3 58.40 (+0.3).
As of January 6, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 52.03% (-9.69%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 60.05% (-3.65%).
Opinion: Prices of raw materials in Thailand's main producing areas continued to rise yesterday. Under the peak season supply, the price of raw materials remains strong, which may reflect that the supply pressure is not great. Domestic rubber presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the main domestic production areas have entered a comprehensive delivery shutdown. In addition, the domestic arrival volume has not increased, and the inflection point of inventory accumulation in Qingdao port has not yet arrived, making the domestic supply pressure limited. The supply side has not changed much, and the actual demand is in the off-season. However, the domestic demand is expected to improve after the Spring Festival. Therefore, the supply and demand are expected to improve, which will bring about strong fluctuations in market prices. It is expected that the price will continue to be strong, and it is recommended to maintain a bullish idea.
Strategy: Cautiously bullish
1. Epidemic recurring
2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen
3. Weak demand
Crude oil: EIA crude oil inventories fell more than expected, but gasoline inventories rose sharply.
Yesterday, the EIA released inventory data, and the overall data was better than the API. Among them, crude oil inventories fell more than expected, while refined oil inventories increased significantly, but the increase was smaller than the API. Oil inventories are accumulating inventories, especially gasoline inventories have increased significantly. The recent trend of oil prices is still on the strong side, even with the outbreak of the Omikojon epidemic in China and the continuous accumulation of inventories of refined oil products in EIA, and the previous supply cuts in Libya, Ecuador and other countries have also recovered. The reason why oil prices ignore the bearish fundamentals may be that some non-fundamental factors are at play, such as the recent position adjustment of commodity index funds and the transaction of inflation expectations.
Strategy: tend to be neutrally bullish in the short term; Oil prices are currently at the upper edge of the range, investors can go short positions in the medium term
Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East
Copper: CPI data hit a new high in 40 years, and copper prices rose strongly.
Macroscopically, the US December CPI data released yesterday again recorded a result of 7%, a new high in 40 years, which shows that the current inflation level seems to be difficult to effectively control in a short period of time. In addition, the Beige Book released early this morning showed that growth continued to be constrained by ongoing supply chain disruptions and labor shortages, with businesses in some regions cooling expectations for growth in the coming months. In addition, the weaker-than-expected non-agricultural data on Friday last week made the market a little worried about the future economic outlook. Combined with the current high level of inflation, the US dollar index fell sharply yesterday, which made non-ferrous metals including copper gain support.
From a fundamental point of view, in recent days, it may be due to the last replenishment of inventory before the holiday, which stimulated downstream factories to replenish inventory and slightly boosted the activity of the copper spot market. In addition, due to the limited supply of goods in the market, traders dominated the market and the sentiment of price support was strong, which led to the rise of Shanghai copper's premium and discount. Inventory of electrolytic copper in Guangdong ended two consecutive increases and declined slightly. Due to the decline in inventories and copper prices, some stockholders insisted on shipping at the original price. However, due to the low acceptance of the downstream and the poor consumption caused by the early holiday, the stockholders can only sell at a lower price. After the price cut, the transaction improved, and the premium and discount of South China copper increased. In terms of scrap copper, the spread between refined copper and scrap copper continued to be above a reasonable range. In terms of imports, the LME0-3Back structure has been reduced, the import window continued to be closed, and the market trading continued to be insipid. In terms of inventory, both LME and SHFE destocked.
In terms of inventory, on January 11, LME destocked 0.07 tons to 84,000 tons, and SHFE destocked 900 tons to 5300 tons. On January 10, domestic social inventories (including bonded areas) rose by 2,700 tons to 289,900 tons from last week.
1. Unilateral: Cautiously bullish
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. Inflection point of inventory
2. The trend of the US dollar index
3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.
PTA: The TA processing fee has slightly dropped from a high level.
1. The PX processing fee pulled back slightly from a high level.
(1) Most of the Korean installations have reduced the production load to around 70% - 80%. India's OMPL restart is postponed. Hengli's 4.75 million tons of PX production capacity has been reduced by 15-20% on December 23, and the recovery time is yet to be determined. In the early stage, the PX processing fee was too low, South Korean suppliers were not active in signing long-term contracts for the PTA factory, and the market was worried about more loss-making production cuts, resulting in a strong rebound in the PX processing fee. Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX 9 million tons production load is still 65% to 70%, and the speed of increasing the production load is still slow. Under the background of Zhejiang Petrochemical's under-full load, Asia's PX will slightly destock from January to February, and PX processing fees rebounded strongly. Zhongjin Petrochemical's original maintenance plan for 1.6 million tons of production capacity in early and mid-January was postponed again. Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million-ton restart plan was postponed to mid-January. Fujia Dahua and Fulian postponed their restart until mid-to-late January.
2. The PTA processing fee has been adjusted back for the first time.
(1) Since the end of December, the long-term contract signing process of Hengli in 2022 is still slow. If it is still not signed successfully in January, the circulation of the follow-up traders may be tightened, causing the circulation inventory to be transferred from the middle and lower reaches to the upper reaches.
(2) No more bullish factors appeared, and the processing fee began to fall back to around 650 yuan on Wednesday.
3. Production and sales were weak at the beginning of the week, and the terminal gradually entered the stage of holiday production reduction in the middle and late January.
(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. PTA processing fees are still strong in the short term, and PX processing fees continue to rebound.
(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.
Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA factory long-term contract signing progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.
1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
1. 库存拐点 2.美债收益率持续走高 3.疫情风险加剧