Iron Ore: In the short term, long and short strategies are intertwined, and the pre-holiday strategy is mainly based on hedging.

Last week, southeastern Brazil was hit by heavy rains and Vale suspended some iron ore production, and the market sentiment continued to warm. However, as domestic demand is still weak, port inventories are still increasing. As of Friday night trading, the 05 contract closed at 710.5 points, down 6.5 points (-0.91%) from the previous week. In terms of spot, the lowest spot price of PB fines in the main four ports is 825 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; SSF is 520 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from last week. The average weekly turnover of iron ore in the main port was 1.0896 million tons/day, down 75,000 tons/day from the previous week.

In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipments totaled 26.954 million tons, a decrease of 7.711 million tons from the previous month. The total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 22.354 million tons, a decrease of 560.50 tons from the previous month. Australia shipped 17.147 million tons, a decrease of 4.070 million tons from the previous month. Among them, Australia sent 14.006 million tons to China, a decrease of 3.646 million tons from the previous month. Brazil shipped 5.2070 million tons, down 1.535 million tons from the previous month. The total amount of arrivals at China's 45 ports was 25.625 million tons, an increase of 653,000 tons from the previous month. The total amount of arrivals from at six northern ports was 12.131 million tons, a decrease of 724,000 tons from the previous month. After the policy continued to ease, the financing of real estate companies and the issuance of housing loans showed signs of marginal improvement, resulting in a slight improvement in iron ore. Affected by the weather, the shipments and arrivals of short-term iron ore decreased month-on-month.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 75.77%, an increase of 1.56% from last week and a decrease of 13.62% from last year. The utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 79.89%, an increase of 2.01% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 11.74%. The profit rate of steel mills was 83.12%, down 0.00% month-on-month and 4.33% year-on-year. The average daily production of molten iron was 2.1369 million tons, an increase of 51,800 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 301,700 tons from the same period last year. With the completion of the national crude steel pressing production task in 2021, the resumption of blast furnace production has gradually picked up since the end of December, and it is expected that the production of molten iron will continue to increase in the near future.

Taken together, shipments from Australia and Brazil have seen very significant reductions this week. Although iron ore is still in a state of high inventory, and steel is still limited by the Winter Olympics in the first quarter, the output is expected to continue to increase after the completion of the national crude steel policy, which will then be transmitted to the mine. The latest increase in the production of molten iron from steel mills shows that the resumption of production is being implemented substantially, and the increase in demand has formed a certain support for iron ore prices. At the same time, since the current steel output is still at a low level in the same period, the changes in iron ore inventories in the later period are more determined by the intensity of steel consumption and the degree of production increase. At present, macro expectations have turned warmer and consumption trends are improving. At the same time, the immediate profit of long-process steel mills is now affected by the price increase at the coke end, and the overall profit has shrunk. Considering that the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the restocking of steel mills before the holiday is expected to be gradually completed. At present, the port inventory continues to be high, coupled with the recent disturbance of the epidemic, it is recommended to take a wait and see attitude in the near future.

Strategies:

Unilateral: Neutral

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks: The implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production restriction policy, the risk of rising ocean freight, etc.

Rubber: Downstream purchases have cooled, and port inventory depletion has slowed.

Last week, the price of rubber continued to fluctuate. Affected by the surrounding market sentiment, market volatility is still relatively large. As the domestic holiday approaches, downstream rigid demand purchases have slowed down. However, the increase in arrivals is still not obvious, resulting in a slowdown in the destocking of domestic ports. However, the higher raw material prices and the expected improvement in domestic demand after the year will still support the market.

As of January 14, the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 239,925 tons (+5125), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 219,910 tons (+4400). The price premium structure of the futures market has brought about a continuous increase in warehouse receipts and inventories on the exchanges. However, the main production areas in China have completely stopped delivery, and it is difficult for the increase in warehouse receipts to continue to pick up. As of January 9, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, but the decline slowed down, mainly due to the reduction in downstream purchasing demand. Due to the issue of shipping schedule, the number of arrivals has not changed much. The market expects that the accumulation of inventories at ports may be after the Spring Festival holiday.

In terms of the operating rate of downstream tires, as of January 13, the operating rate of all-steel tire enterprises was 59.01% (+6.98%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 59.36% (-0.69%). As the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the recovery of the tire factory operating rate is limited, and the tire factory operating rate may gradually decline in the later period.

Opinion: Falling leaves in northeastern Thailand lead to reduced latex supply. At the end of last week, the price of latex in Thailand rose significantly, and the support of the rubber cost side was strengthened. At present, domestic rubber is showing a weak pattern of supply and demand. The main domestic production areas have been completely stopped delivery, and the supply mainly depends on imports. Due to the impact of the epidemic, domestic imports of rubber have been repeatedly delayed. Even with the cooling of domestic downstream purchasing demand, it is expected that the domestic Qingdao port inventory accumulation will be relatively limited. Domestic supply pressure is more difficult to show, and demand is in the off-season, but demand is still expected to improve after the year. Therefore, we believe that the price of rubber will fluctuate mainly before the Spring Festival, and the downside may be limited.

Strategy: Neutral

Risks:

1. Significant increase in domestic supply

2. The impact of the epidemic and other influences makes demand continue to show weakness

3. Fund is tight.

Crude oil: Inflation expectations support stronger oil prices, but investors still need to be cautious.

Although there were bearish factors in the fundamentals last week, oil prices still maintained a strong trend. At the same time, the inter-month spread is also strong. We believe that the current crude oil market may be in a macro and inflation-led environment.

First of all, judging from the significantly bearish news, on the one hand, the supply disruptions of some oil-producing countries in the early stage have basically recovered. Oil field shutdowns in Libya, pipeline maintenance in Ecuador and force majeure in Nigeria have all ended, with supply disruptions involving more than 1 million bpd coming back online, but oil prices have not responded. On the other hand, the global Omicron epidemic situation is severe. Although most of the cases are mild, overseas countries are strictly tightening epidemic prevention measures, which has little impact on demand. However, as far as China is concerned, the recent epidemics in many places have significantly suppressed short-term demand and the demand for transportation to return to work during the Spring Festival, which also did not reflect the trend of oil prices.

From the point of view of bullish factors, the physical discount of light crude oil in the North Sea, West Africa and other places did soar last week, indicating that the current light crude oil is tight. However, from the perspective of ESPO discount and Brent Dubai EFS structure, Asia-Pacific buying interest has not increased significantly recently, and the increase in buying interest mainly comes from local refineries in Europe. On the one hand, the French Donges refinery (with a production capacity of 215,000 barrels per day) plans to resume production in March, so it is replenishing raw material cargoes recently. On the other hand, a sharp drop in natural gas prices has boosted production margins for simple and lightly hydrogenated refineries in Europe. The current shortage of light crude oil in the Atlantic Basin is structural and short-term. Through the arbitrage mechanism, Europe will easily attract light crude oil cargoes exported from the United States, while Asia will reduce the arbitrage cargoes in the North Sea and West Africa and purchase ESPO and light crude oil in Southeast Asia and other places. From the perspective of the global market, the current crude oil spot is not in short supply, and the shortage is only reflected in the North Sea light oil. While this is Brent's pricing plate, we believe this is a short-term fundamental factor.

Therefore, the fundamentals of crude oil itself are long and short intertwined in the near future, not one-way bullish. The reason why oil prices did not reflect the current significant negative, we believe that the current core driving factor is mainly from the impact of inflation. The current U.S. inflation expectations indicator has a strong correlation with oil prices. Macro hedge funds and allocation-based index funds based on inflation expectations may increase their long positions at this stage, thus forming a positive feedback loop between oil prices and inflation expectations. But it is uncertain how long the inflation trade will last amid expectations of faster monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. And after the oil price reached $80/barrel, it once again hit the upper limit of inflation tolerance in developed countries such as the United States. In the future, it will not rule out the continued use of dumping reserves and other policy tools to suppress oil prices. OPEC will also face greater political pressure. In addition, the imported inflation brought by oil prices to developing countries cannot be ignored. The previous domestic riots in Kazakhstan were also triggered by the government's cancellation of domestic fuel subsidies, which led to soaring fuel prices. Inflation is not just an economic problem, it can also trigger a series of geopolitical events. We believe that this round of rising oil prices still needs to be treated with caution.

Strategy: tend to be neutrally bullish in the short term; Oil prices are currently at the upper edge of the range, investors can go short positions in the medium term

Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

Copper: The accumulation of inventories is not very obvious, and copper prices may maintain a strong shock pattern.

Spot condition:

According to SMM News, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic copper in the week of January 14 ran from 69,870 yuan / ton to 72,200 yuan / ton, showing a volatile weekly trend. The average premium and discount quotations run from -60 to +330 yuan / ton, showing a downward trend in the middle of the week. Copper prices rose first and then fell last week. The Shanghai Copper 2203 contract ran from a minimum of 69,100 yuan/ton to a maximum of 72,580 yuan/ton, and closed at 70,090 yuan/ton on Friday night.

In terms of inventories, LME inventories rose by 15,300 tons to 86,300 tons last week. Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 1,100 tons to 30,300 tons. Social inventory was 289,300 tons (including bonded areas), down 0.6 million tons from the previous week.

View:

Copper prices fell last week after hitting highs. The Fed's dovish remarks have temporarily eased concerns about tightening liquidity. Fundamentally, the TC index rose slightly, but due to the impact of the epidemic, the import of copper concentrate at Erlian Port was still suspended, and the Yangtze River Basin continued to be congested. In terms of imports, the LME0-3Back structure continued during the week, and the import window continued to close. In terms of scrap copper, as copper prices rose within the week, the price difference between refined copper and scrap copper continued to stand above a reasonable range, and the advantage of scrap copper substitution appeared. In terms of consumption, the weekly operating rate of copper rods was 62.79%, up 0.59% from the previous month, which was lower than expected, mainly because the sharp rise in copper prices in the middle of the week disrupted the rhythm of downstream procurement. In the off-season of seasonal consumption, demand continued to weaken. Since this week, companies have entered the holiday phase one after another, and demand may further cool down. In terms of inventories, global inventories continued to remain low. Among them, the LME was affected by the delivery on Friday, and accumulated inventory weekly. SHFE inventory warehouse receipts continue to go to the warehouse, and the social warehouse and the bonded area accumulate a small amount of inventory. Overall, demand will weaken further towards the end of the year. At present, the inflection point of inventory has not yet appeared. Under the fluctuation of macro factors, copper prices may continue to fluctuate and become slightly stronger.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Inflection point of inventory

2. U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA:

1. The PX processing fee pulled back slightly from a high level.

(1) Most of the Korean installations have reduced the production load to around 70% - 80%. India's OMPL restart is postponed. Hengli's 4.75 million tons of PX production capacity has been reduced by 15-20% on December 23, and the recovery time is yet to be determined. In the early stage, the PX processing fee was too low, South Korean suppliers were not active in signing long-term contracts for the PTA factory, and the market was worried about more loss-making production cuts, resulting in a strong rebound in the PX processing fee. Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX 9 million tons production load is still 65% to 70%, and the speed of increasing the production load is still slow. Under the background of Zhejiang Petrochemical's under-full load, Asia's PX will slightly destock from January to February, and PX processing fees rebounded strongly. Zhongjin Petrochemical's original maintenance plan for 1.6 million tons of production capacity in early and mid-January was postponed again. Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million-ton restart plan was postponed to mid-January. Fujia Dahua and Fulian postponed their restart until mid-to-late January.

2. The processing fee of PTA is still high..

(1) Since the end of December, the long-term contract signing process of Hengli in 2022 is still slow. If it is still not signed successfully in January, the circulation of the follow-up traders may be tightened, causing the circulation inventory to be transferred from the middle and lower reaches to the upper reaches.

(2) The operating rate of downstream polyester is still high, and the processing fee of PTA continues to be high.

3. The operating rate of polyester is still higher than expected.

(1) Although production and sales were general this week, the operating rate of polyester surged to 87.5% (+2%). The production reduction units in the early stage have recovered, and the load reduction rate during the Spring Festival is slower than the previous seasonality.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. PTA processing fees are still strong in the short term, and PX processing fees continue to rebound.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA factory long-term contract signing progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿：短期多空交织 节前避险为主

上周，巴西东南部遭遇暴雨袭击，淡水河谷暂停部分铁矿的生产，市场情绪持续转暖，但由于国内需求依然偏弱，港口库存仍有增量。截止上周五夜盘，05合约收于710.5点，较前一周下跌6.5点（-0.91%）。现货方面，日青京曹港最低现货价格PB粉825元/吨，较上周持平，超特粉520元/吨，较上周涨2元/吨。截止上周，超特粉对应铁矿石05合约基差-15，较前一周持平。主港铁矿周均成交108.96万吨/天，周环比下降7.5万吨/天。

供应方面，全球铁矿石发运总量2695.40万吨，环比减少771.10万吨；澳洲巴西19港铁矿发运总量2235.40万吨，环比减少560.50吨；澳洲发运量1714.70万吨，环比减少407.0万吨；其中澳洲发往中国的量1400.60万吨，环比减少364.60万吨；巴西发运量520.70万吨，环比下降153.50万吨。中国45港到港总量2562.50万吨，环比增加65.30万吨；北方六港到港总量为1213.10万吨，环比减少72.40万吨。在政策持续宽松后，房地产企业融资与住房贷款发放都有了边际改善的迹象，铁矿小幅改善，而受天气影响，短期铁矿石的发运、到港量环比有所减少。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率75.77%，环比上周增加1.56%，同比去年下降13.62%；高炉炼铁产能利用率79.89%，环比增加2.01%，同比下降11.74%；钢厂盈利率83.12%，环比下降0.00%，同比下降4.33%；日均铁水产量213.69万吨，环比增加5.18万吨，同比下降30.17万吨。随着2021年全国粗钢压产任务的完成，自12月底，高炉复产逐步回升，预计近期铁水产量仍将不断提升。

库存方面，Mysteel统计全国45港进口铁矿库存15697.19，环比增92.09；日均疏港量312.17降5.48。分量方面，澳矿7383.82增156.24，巴西矿5527.20降17.32，贸易矿9302.00增116.2 ，球团440.56增21.42，精粉1103.90增16.5，块矿2206.84降37.18，粗粉11945.89增91.35；在港船舶167条增6条。上周虽钢厂提货仍旧较为积极，但日均疏港小幅回落，同时周期内港口铁矿石到港保持高位，因此库存总量得以回升。区域来看，增幅最大的为华东地区港口。

整体来看，本周澳洲和巴西的发运均有非常明显的减量；虽然铁矿仍在高库存状态，一季度钢铁也仍受冬奥会的限制，但全国粗钢政策完成后产量有望继续提升，进而向矿端传导，最新钢厂铁水产量增加，显示复产实质性执行中，需求增加了对铁矿价格形成一定支撑。同时，由于目前钢材产量仍处同期低位水平，后期铁矿库存变动，更多由钢材消费强度和产量提升程度所决定，而目前来看，宏观预期转暖，消费趋势向好。同时，现在长流程钢厂即期利润受焦炭端涨价影响，整体利润有所收缩。考虑到临近春节假期，钢厂节前补库有望逐渐完成，港口库存持续高位，叠加近期疫情不断扰动，建议近期中性观望为主。

策略：

单边：中性

跨期：无

跨品种：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：下游采购降温，港口库存去化放缓

上周胶价延续区间震荡走势，受周边市场情绪的影响，盘面波动依然较大。随着国内假期临近，下游刚需采购有所放缓，而到港量增幅仍不明显，带来国内港口库存去化放缓。但原料价格走高以及国内年后需求预期改善，对于盘面仍有支撑。

国内交易所总库存截止1月14日为239925吨（+5125），期货仓单量219910吨（+4400），期货盘面价格依旧升水带来交易所仓单及库存持续增加，但国内主产区全面停割，仓单增量难以持续回升。截至1月9日，青岛保税区库存继续下降，但降幅有所放缓，主要因下游拿货需求减少，到港量因船期问题尚未解决，变化不大，市场预期港口累库或在春节假期后。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止1月13日，全钢胎企业开工率59.01%（+6.98%），半钢胎企业开工率59.36%（-0.69%）。临近春节假期，轮胎厂开工率回升有限，后期轮胎厂开工率或将逐步回落。

观点：泰国东北部落叶导致胶水供应减少，上周末泰国胶水价格明显上扬，橡胶成本端支撑增强。目前国内橡胶呈现供需两弱格局，国内主产区已经全面停割，供应主要依靠进口，因疫情的影响，指标胶进口缓慢而东南亚船期尚未解决，国内进口胶一再推延，即使在国内下游采买需求降温下，预计国内青岛港口库存累库较为有限。国内供应压力较难显现，而需求处于淡季，但年后需求仍有改善的预期，因此，我们认为，年前胶价震荡为主，下行或有限。

策略：中性

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：通胀预期支撑油价走强，但仍需谨慎对待

虽然上周基本面出现利空因素，但油价依旧维持偏强走势，同时月差也表现偏强，我们认为当前原油市场或处于宏观以及通胀主导的环境中。

首先从显著利空的消息来看，一方面是前期部分产油国供应中断基本恢复，利比亚的油田停产、厄瓜多尔的管道维护以及尼日利亚的不可抗力均已经结束，涉及超过100万桶/日的供应中断重新上线，但油价并未给予反应；另一方面，全球奥密克戎疫情形势严峻，虽然因为轻症居多，海外各国均为严格收紧防疫措施，对需求影响很小，但就中国而言，近期多地的疫情对短期需求以及春节返乡复工交通需求均有明显抑制，这在油价走势中也没有反应。

而从利多因素来看，上周北海、西非等地的轻质原油的实货贴水的确出现飙升，显示当前轻质原油偏紧，但就从ESPO贴水以及Brent Dubai EFS结构来看，近期亚太买兴并未显著增加，买兴增加的力量主要来自欧洲本地炼厂，一方面是法国Donges炼厂（产能21.5万桶/日）计划在3月份复产，因此近期在补充原料船货；另一方面，天然气价格的大幅下跌提振了欧洲简单以及轻度加氢型炼厂的生产利润，当前大西洋盆地的轻质原油紧缺是结构性以及短期性的，通过套利机制，欧洲将会很容易吸引美国出口的轻质原油船货，而亚洲也会减少北海、西非的套利船货转而采购ESPO以及东南亚等地的轻质原油，全球市场来看，目前原油现货并不紧俏，紧缺仅仅体现在北海轻质油，虽然这属于布伦特的定价盘，但我们认为这是短期的基本面因素。

因此近期原油自身基本面是多空交织的，并非单向利多，而油价之所以并没有反映当前的显著利空，我们认为主要是目前核心驱动因素来自通胀影响，当前美国通胀预期指标与油价的相关性极强，宏观对冲基金以及基于通胀预期的配置型指数基金可能在这一阶段增加多头仓位，从而形成了油价与通胀预期之间的正反馈循环，但在美联储加快收紧货币政策的预期之下，通胀交易能够持续多久目前尚不确定，且在油价到了80美元/桶之后，再度触及美国等发达国家的通胀容忍上限，未来不排除继续使用抛储以及其他政策工具打压油价，欧佩克也将面临更大的政治压力，此外，油价对于发展中国家带来的输入性通胀也不容忽视，如此前哈萨克斯坦国内暴乱，导火索也是因为政府取消了国内燃油补贴导致燃料价格飙升。通胀并不只是经济问题，也会引发一系列地缘政治事件，我们认为对于本轮油价上涨仍需要谨慎对待。

策略：短期中性偏强，油价位于区间上沿，中期空头对待

风险：中东地缘政治风险

铜：累库并不十分明显 铜价或维持震荡偏强格局

现货情况：

据SMM讯，1月14日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于69,870元/吨至72,200元/吨，周度呈震荡走势，平均升贴水报价运行于-60至+330元/吨，周中呈走低态势。上周铜价先扬后抑，沪铜2203合约运行于最低69,100元吨至最高72,580元/吨，周五夜盘收70,090元/吨。

在库存方面，上周LME库存上涨1.53万吨至8.63万吨。上期所库存上涨0.11万吨至3.03万吨。社会库存为28.93万吨（含保税区），较前一周下降0.06万吨。

观点：

上周铜价冲高后回落，联储偏鸽派言论，流动性收紧忧虑暂有缓解。基本面上，TC指数小幅上涨，但受疫情影响，二连口岸铜精矿进口仍然暂停，长江流域继续拥堵。进口方面，周内LME0-3Back结构持续，进口窗口持续关闭。废铜方面，伴随铜价周内上涨，精废价差持续站在合理区间上方，废铜替代优势显现。消费方面，周度铜杆开工率62.79%，环比上升0.59%，低于预期，主因周中铜价大涨打乱下游备货节奏，在季节性消费淡季下，需求持续走弱。本周开始企业陆续进入放假阶段，需求或将进一步降温。库存方面，全球库存持续维持低位，其中LME受周五交仓影响，周度累库，SHFE库存仓单持续去库，社库及保税区小幅累库。整体来看，临近年末需求将进一步走弱，目前库存拐点尚未出现，在宏观因素的波动下，铜价或将持续震荡并略微偏强态势。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎偏多 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 累库拐点 货币政策导向 能源危机风险