Iron Ore: Limited production VS macro easing, iron ore futures and spot performance are strong.

Opinion and logic:

Affected by the epidemic and the Winter Olympics, many parts of the country adopted the policy of shutting down furnaces and reducing production yesterday, and the overall molten iron production has declined to varying degrees. However, the macro policy still has a friendly policy to stimulate consumption, which is conducive to boosting market confidence. By the close, the main 05 contract of iron ore futures was 735 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Affected by futures, the spot price of imported iron ore at ports was strong yesterday, rising by 15-25 yuan/ton throughout the day. Iron ore transaction volume: The total transaction volume of iron ore in main ports nationwide was 1.11 million tons, down 19.9% from the previous month. Forward spot: The accumulated forward spot transaction amounted to 1.3 million tons (12 transactions), a month-on-month increase of 17.1% (among which the mine transaction volume was 870,000 tons).

On the whole, the Central Economic Work Conference requires that economic work next year requires steady progress. All regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, and actively introduce policies that are conducive to economic stability, and the policy efforts should be appropriately advanced. The crude steel production limit task has been completed ahead of schedule, and the later production limit is expected to become more moderate. Although the iron ore is still in a high inventory state, the administrative production restriction policy has led to the accumulation of iron element inventory all at the mine end. If the consumption of thread and hot-rolled coil continues to improve, it is expected to be quickly transmitted to the mine end (destocking) after the production control is relaxed. On the trend, it is expected that iron ore will still fluctuate at high levels.

Strategies:

Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks: The implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production restriction policy, the risk of rising ocean freight, etc.

Rubber: Demand has weakened, and the rise in rubber prices lacks momentum.

On January 19, the most-active RU contract closed at 14900 (+60) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13400 (+50) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -800 yuan/ton (+140); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 116996 (+583) lots, the short position was 176450 (-420) lots, and the net short position was 59454 (-1003) lots.

On January 19, the most-active NR contract closed at 12100 (+155) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,850 (+10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,845 (+15) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,885 (+15) US dollars/ton.

As of January 14: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 239,925 tons (+5125), and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 219,910 tons (+4400).

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 55.05 (0), cup lump 48.55 (+0.35), latex 53 (0), RSS3 58.29 (+0.45).

As of January 6, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 59.01% (+6.98%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 59.36% (-0.69%).

Opinion: Domestic downstream demand continued to weaken, resulting in a continuous decline in port inventories. In addition, after the recent rebound in arrivals, domestic port inventories ushered in an inflection point of inventory accumulation. Therefore, despite the domestic macro easing background, the rubber price presented a trend of pulling back from high yesterday. The demand side is insufficiently driven, and the support below the price is mainly on the raw material side. After the domestic delivery is completely suspended, the output of Thailand's main producing areas will also gradually decline by the end of January. The main concern in China is the arrival volume of the port. If the shipping schedule is significantly relieved, there will still be a supply shock in the country. If the shipping schedule is not eased when demand gradually recovers after the year, it may usher in a tight spot situation caused by domestic downstream replenishment of inventory. Before the Spring Festival, it is expected that the price of rubber will continue to fluctuate, but the space below is limited.

Strategy: Neutral

Risks:

1. Epidemic recurring

2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen

3. Weak demand

Crude oil: API crude oil and refined oil inventories increased.

From the current oil price drive, we believe that geopolitics > macro > fundamentals. The current situation is similar to September-October 2018, where oil prices are dominated by geopolitical situations due to tensions in Ukraine, but this also means that once events reverse, the possibility of oil prices falling back also increases. Because as far as the oil market is concerned, whether it is the Russian-Ukrainian situation, Iran nuclear negotiations and other geopolitical issues, the United States still has a certain dominance. That is, if oil price/inflation becomes a priority for the U.S., the U.S. still has a lot of room for strategic mediation, including pushing for the Iran nuclear deal and easing sanctions on Venezuela. We believe that the current oil price continues to rise, and political games or human factors continue to increase. Investors still have to be cautious to prevent events from reversing.

Strategy: tend to be neutrally bullish in the short term; Oil prices are currently at the upper edge of the range, investors can go short positions in the medium term

Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

Copper: Driven by multiple factors, copper prices fluctuated upwards.

View:

Macroscopically, non-ferrous products once again ushered in a rise across the board. On the one hand, nickel has driven the overall sector to a new high due to supply shortages. On the other hand, domestic policy support for stabilizing growth will also increase. The Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline was temporarily disrupted by fire. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its demand growth forecast for this year, and international crude oil futures continued to refresh the high level in more than seven years, which also boosted the overall rise of the non-ferrous sector.

From a fundamental point of view, the market price continued to fluctuate within a narrow range at a high level of 70,000 yuan/ton. With the Spring Festival approaching, the buying interest continued to be suppressed without the support of a large number of orders downstream. The market's trading initiative began to decline significantly, and the sentiment of the stockholders who raised the premium in the early stage was suppressed, and the Shanghai copper price went down. Inventories fell again, most holders were reluctant to ship at low prices, and the premium and discount of South China copper rose slightly. In terms of scrap copper, the spread between refined copper and scrap copper continued to remain within a reasonable range. On the import side, the import window continued to be closed. LME0-3 maintains the Back structure, and market trading continues to maintain low activity.

In terms of inventory, LME inventories rose by 4,300 tons to 9,900 tons yesterday, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell by 700 tons to 13,100 tons.

On the whole, driven by multiple factors, copper rose again driven by the non-ferrous sector.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Inflection point of inventory

2. U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: Filament price cuts again to transfer inventory pressure.

1. PX is still strong.

(1) Most of the Korean installations have reduced the production load to around 70% - 80%. South Korean suppliers are not active in signing long-term contracts for PTA factories, and the market is worried about more loss-making production cuts. The total production load of Zhejiang Petrochemical is still 60%-65%, and the increase rate is still slow. Against the background that Zhejiang Petrochemical's load is still not high, Asian PX is expected to quickly destock from January to February. The PX processing fee is expected to be firm, with a slight correction from the high level this week.

2. PTA processing fee fell slightly, but the rate of fall was slow.

(1) Fujian Chemical and Trade will be overhauled from January 3 to January 23. Yisheng Dahua's 2.25 million-ton capacity reduced the load to 70% on January 12. Since the end of December, the long-term contract signing process of Hengli in 2022 is still slow. If it is still not signed successfully in January, the circulation of the follow-up traders may be tightened, causing the circulation inventory to be transferred from the middle and lower reaches to the upper reaches.

3. Filament price reduction for promotion.

(1) On Wednesday, the price of filament yarn was reduced, and the production and sales volume of filament yarn increased to 110%, transferring inventory pressure.

(2) At the beginning of the week, CCF announced that five sets of polyester plants totaling 690,000 tons will be overhauled over the weekend. A major factory in Shaoxing reduced production by another 400,000 tons.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. PTA processing fee is still strong in the short term, and PX processing fee is also strong.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA factory long-term contract signing progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿：限产博弈宏观宽松，铁矿期现表现强势

观点与逻辑：

受疫情以及冬奥会影响，昨日全国多地区采取停炉减产政策，整体铁水产量均有不同程度的下滑。然而，宏观政策仍有刺激消费方面的友好政策发出，有利于提振市场信心。至收盘，铁矿石期货主力05合约735元/吨，较前一交易日上涨20元/吨。受期货影响，昨日进口铁矿港口现货价格偏强运行，全天累计上涨15-25元/吨，铁矿石成交量：全国主港铁矿累计成交111万吨，环比下降19.9%；远期现货：远期现货累计成交130万吨（12笔），环比上涨17.1%(其中矿山成交量为87万吨)。

整体来看，中央经济工作会议要求，明年经济工作要稳字当头、稳中求进，各地区各部门要担负起稳定宏观经济的责任，各方面要积极推出有利于经济稳定的政策，政策发力适当靠前；粗钢压产任务已提前完成，预计后期限产将变得更为温和，虽然铁矿仍在高库存状态，行政的产量限制政策，导致铁元素累库全部发生在矿端，如果成材消费持续向好，有望在产量管制放松后快速向矿端传导（去库）。趋势上，预计铁矿仍将表现为震荡偏强。

策略：

单边：震荡偏强

跨期：无

跨品种：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：

粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：需求转淡，胶价上冲乏力

19号，RU主力收盘14900（+60）元/吨，混合胶报价13400元/吨（+50），主力合约基差-800元/吨（+140）；前二十主力多头持仓116996（+583），空头持仓176450（-420），净空持仓59454（-1003）。

19号，NR主力收盘价12100（+155）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1850（+10）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1845美元/吨（+15），印尼标胶1885（+15）美元/吨。

截至1月14日：交易所总库存239925（+5125），交易所仓单219910（+4400）。

原料：生胶片55.05（0），杯胶48.55（+0.35），胶水53（0），烟片58.29（+0.45）。

截止1月13日，国内全钢胎开工率为59.01%（+6.98%），国内半钢胎开工率为59.36%(-0.69%）。

观点：国内下游需求继续转淡，带来港口库存出库持续下滑，叠加近期到港小幅回升后，国内港口库存迎来累库拐点。因此，尽管在国内宏观宽松背景下，昨天胶价呈现冲高回落走势。需求端驱动不足，价格下方的支撑则主要在原料端，国内全面停割后，1月底泰国主产区产量也将逐步下降。国内主要关注的是港口的到港量情况，船期如果有明显缓解，则国内仍有供应冲击，如果在年后需求逐步恢复之际，依然没有见过船期缓解，则可能迎来国内下游补库导致的现货紧张的局面。年前预计胶价延续震荡走势，但下方空间有限。

策略：中性

风险：疫情反复，期现价差持续拉大，需求示弱等。

原油：API原油与成品油库存增加

从当前的油价的驱动来看，我们认为地缘政治大于宏观大于基本面，当前的情况类似2018年9~10月，由于乌克兰局势紧张，油价由地缘政治局势主导，但这也意味着一旦事件出现反转，油价出现回落的可能性也在增加，因为就石油市场而言，不管是俄乌局势、伊朗核谈判等地缘问题，美国仍有一定主导权，即如果油价/通胀成为美国考虑的优先事项，那么美国仍有较大的战略斡旋余地，包括推动伊核协议以及放松委内瑞拉制裁等，我们认为当前油价持续走高，政治博弈或者人为因素在持续增加，仍要谨慎对待，防止事件出现反转。

策略：短期中性偏强，油价位于区间上沿，中期空头对待

风险：中东地缘政治风险

铜：多重因素推动 铜价震荡上行

观点：

宏观方面，有色品种再次迎来全线上涨，一方面，镍因供应短缺再创新高带动整体板块，另一方面，国内将增加稳增长政策支持也是上涨动因。伊拉克至土耳其的输油管线因着火暂时受干扰，加之国际能源署（IEA）上调今年需求增长预期，国际原油期货继续刷新七年多来高位，也助推有色板块整体上扬。

基本面来看，盘面持续在70000元/吨高位窄幅震荡，随着春节临近，下游在没有大量订单支撑的情况下，买兴持续受到压制，市场交投主动性开始明显下降，持货商前期大幅抬升水情绪受到打压，沪铜升贴水下行；库存重新走低，多数持货商不愿低价出货，华南铜升贴水小幅上行。废铜方面，精废价差持续维持至合理区间。进口方面，进口窗口持续关闭，LME0-3维持Back结构，市场交投继续维持低活跃度。

库存方面，昨日LME库存上涨0.43万吨至0.99万吨，SHFE仓单走低0.07万吨至1.31万吨。

整体看来，多重因素推动，有色板块带动下铜再次上扬。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 库存拐点 2.美债收益率持续走高 3.疫情风险加剧

PTA：长丝再度降价促销转移库存压力

一、PX仍坚挺

（1）韩国装置7-8成运行，韩国供应商对PTA工厂的长约签订不积极，市场担忧更多亏损性减产出现。浙石化总负荷仍在60%-65%，提负仍偏慢。浙石化负荷仍不高的背景下，亚洲PX1-2月快速去库预期，PX加工费预期坚挺，本周出现高位稍回调。

二、PTA加工费小幅回落，但回落幅度偏慢

（1）福化工贸1.3检修，1.21复工计划。12月底以来，恒力2022年长约签订进度仍慢，进入1月仍未顺利签订，后续贸易商环节的流通量或有所收紧，流通库存从中下游往上游转移，定价权的漂移支撑PTA加工费，但亦关注大厂后续会否让步。

三、长丝降价促销

（1）周三长丝降价促销，长丝产销放量至110%，转移库存压力。（2）周初CCF公布五套共69万吨聚酯装置周末停车检修，绍兴一主流大厂再减产40万吨。

策略建议：（1）谨慎偏多。PTA加工费短期仍坚挺，PX加工费亦偏强。（2）跨期套利：观望。

原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂长约签订进度，亚洲PX加工费改善后的提负速率，聚酯工厂检修速率。