Iron Ore: Limited production VS macro easing, iron ore futures and spot performance are strong.
Opinion and logic:
Affected by the epidemic and the Winter Olympics, many parts of the country adopted the policy of shutting down furnaces and reducing production yesterday, and the overall molten iron production has declined to varying degrees. However, the macro policy still has a friendly policy to stimulate consumption, which is conducive to boosting market confidence. By the close, the main 05 contract of iron ore futures was 735 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Affected by futures, the spot price of imported iron ore at ports was strong yesterday, rising by 15-25 yuan/ton throughout the day. Iron ore transaction volume: The total transaction volume of iron ore in main ports nationwide was 1.11 million tons, down 19.9% from the previous month. Forward spot: The accumulated forward spot transaction amounted to 1.3 million tons (12 transactions), a month-on-month increase of 17.1% (among which the mine transaction volume was 870,000 tons).
On the whole, the Central Economic Work Conference requires that economic work next year requires steady progress. All regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, and actively introduce policies that are conducive to economic stability, and the policy efforts should be appropriately advanced. The crude steel production limit task has been completed ahead of schedule, and the later production limit is expected to become more moderate. Although the iron ore is still in a high inventory state, the administrative production restriction policy has led to the accumulation of iron element inventory all at the mine end. If the consumption of thread and hot-rolled coil continues to improve, it is expected to be quickly transmitted to the mine end (destocking) after the production control is relaxed. On the trend, it is expected that iron ore will still fluctuate at high levels.
Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels
Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None
Concerns and risks: The implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production restriction policy, the risk of rising ocean freight, etc.
Rubber: Demand has weakened, and the rise in rubber prices lacks momentum.
On January 19, the most-active RU contract closed at 14900 (+60) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13400 (+50) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -800 yuan/ton (+140); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 116996 (+583) lots, the short position was 176450 (-420) lots, and the net short position was 59454 (-1003) lots.
On January 19, the most-active NR contract closed at 12100 (+155) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,850 (+10) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,845 (+15) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,885 (+15) US dollars/ton.
As of January 14: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 239,925 tons (+5125), and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 219,910 tons (+4400).
Raw materials: Sheet rubber 55.05 (0), cup lump 48.55 (+0.35), latex 53 (0), RSS3 58.29 (+0.45).
As of January 6, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 59.01% (+6.98%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 59.36% (-0.69%).
Opinion: Domestic downstream demand continued to weaken, resulting in a continuous decline in port inventories. In addition, after the recent rebound in arrivals, domestic port inventories ushered in an inflection point of inventory accumulation. Therefore, despite the domestic macro easing background, the rubber price presented a trend of pulling back from high yesterday. The demand side is insufficiently driven, and the support below the price is mainly on the raw material side. After the domestic delivery is completely suspended, the output of Thailand's main producing areas will also gradually decline by the end of January. The main concern in China is the arrival volume of the port. If the shipping schedule is significantly relieved, there will still be a supply shock in the country. If the shipping schedule is not eased when demand gradually recovers after the year, it may usher in a tight spot situation caused by domestic downstream replenishment of inventory. Before the Spring Festival, it is expected that the price of rubber will continue to fluctuate, but the space below is limited.
1. Epidemic recurring
2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen
3. Weak demand
Crude oil: API crude oil and refined oil inventories increased.
From the current oil price drive, we believe that geopolitics > macro > fundamentals. The current situation is similar to September-October 2018, where oil prices are dominated by geopolitical situations due to tensions in Ukraine, but this also means that once events reverse, the possibility of oil prices falling back also increases. Because as far as the oil market is concerned, whether it is the Russian-Ukrainian situation, Iran nuclear negotiations and other geopolitical issues, the United States still has a certain dominance. That is, if oil price/inflation becomes a priority for the U.S., the U.S. still has a lot of room for strategic mediation, including pushing for the Iran nuclear deal and easing sanctions on Venezuela. We believe that the current oil price continues to rise, and political games or human factors continue to increase. Investors still have to be cautious to prevent events from reversing.
Strategy: tend to be neutrally bullish in the short term; Oil prices are currently at the upper edge of the range, investors can go short positions in the medium term
Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East
Copper: Driven by multiple factors, copper prices fluctuated upwards.
Macroscopically, non-ferrous products once again ushered in a rise across the board. On the one hand, nickel has driven the overall sector to a new high due to supply shortages. On the other hand, domestic policy support for stabilizing growth will also increase. The Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline was temporarily disrupted by fire. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its demand growth forecast for this year, and international crude oil futures continued to refresh the high level in more than seven years, which also boosted the overall rise of the non-ferrous sector.
From a fundamental point of view, the market price continued to fluctuate within a narrow range at a high level of 70,000 yuan/ton. With the Spring Festival approaching, the buying interest continued to be suppressed without the support of a large number of orders downstream. The market's trading initiative began to decline significantly, and the sentiment of the stockholders who raised the premium in the early stage was suppressed, and the Shanghai copper price went down. Inventories fell again, most holders were reluctant to ship at low prices, and the premium and discount of South China copper rose slightly. In terms of scrap copper, the spread between refined copper and scrap copper continued to remain within a reasonable range. On the import side, the import window continued to be closed. LME0-3 maintains the Back structure, and market trading continues to maintain low activity.
In terms of inventory, LME inventories rose by 4,300 tons to 9,900 tons yesterday, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell by 700 tons to 13,100 tons.
On the whole, driven by multiple factors, copper rose again driven by the non-ferrous sector.
1. Unilateral: Neutral
2. Inter-market: postpone
3. Inter-period: postpone
4. Options: postpone
1. Inflection point of inventory
2. U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise
3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.
PTA: Filament price cuts again to transfer inventory pressure.
1. PX is still strong.
(1) Most of the Korean installations have reduced the production load to around 70% - 80%. South Korean suppliers are not active in signing long-term contracts for PTA factories, and the market is worried about more loss-making production cuts. The total production load of Zhejiang Petrochemical is still 60%-65%, and the increase rate is still slow. Against the background that Zhejiang Petrochemical's load is still not high, Asian PX is expected to quickly destock from January to February. The PX processing fee is expected to be firm, with a slight correction from the high level this week.
2. PTA processing fee fell slightly, but the rate of fall was slow.
(1) Fujian Chemical and Trade will be overhauled from January 3 to January 23. Yisheng Dahua's 2.25 million-ton capacity reduced the load to 70% on January 12. Since the end of December, the long-term contract signing process of Hengli in 2022 is still slow. If it is still not signed successfully in January, the circulation of the follow-up traders may be tightened, causing the circulation inventory to be transferred from the middle and lower reaches to the upper reaches.
3. Filament price reduction for promotion.
(1) On Wednesday, the price of filament yarn was reduced, and the production and sales volume of filament yarn increased to 110%, transferring inventory pressure.
(2) At the beginning of the week, CCF announced that five sets of polyester plants totaling 690,000 tons will be overhauled over the weekend. A major factory in Shaoxing reduced production by another 400,000 tons.
(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. PTA processing fee is still strong in the short term, and PX processing fee is also strong.
(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.
Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA factory long-term contract signing progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.
1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓
1. 库存拐点 2.美债收益率持续走高 3.疫情风险加剧