Iron Ore: LPR fell slightly lower than expected, and iron ore futures and spot strengthened again.

Opinion and logic:

Yesterday, the central bank announced that the 1-year LPR for this month was 3.70%, compared with 3.80% last time. The LPR over a 5-year period was at 4.60%, compared to 4.65% last time. Although the reduction of LPR over 5-year period is lower than market expectations, it is not difficult to see the strength of the government's loose monetary policy. In addition, the production, sales and inventory data released by the Steel Federation yesterday showed that the overall inventory accumulation of the five building materials commonly used in construction was lower than the seasonality, which further boosted market confidence. By the close, the main 05 contract of iron ore futures was 742 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Affected by futures, the spot price of imported iron ore at ports strengthened slightly yesterday, rising by 0-20 yuan/ton in total throughout the day.

On the whole, the monetary policy announced by the central bank yesterday is fully in line with the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December 2021. That is to say, in 2022, the economic work next year requires steady progress. All regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, and actively introduce policies that are conducive to economic stability, and the policy efforts should be appropriately advanced. The crude steel production limit task has been completed ahead of schedule, and the later production limit is expected to become more moderate. Although the iron ore is still in a high inventory state, the administrative production restriction policy has led to the accumulation of iron element inventory all at the mine end. If the consumption of thread and hot-rolled coil continues to improve, it is expected to be quickly transmitted to the mine end (destocking) after the production control is relaxed. On the trend, it is expected that iron ore will still fluctuate at high levels.

Strategies:

Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks: The implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production restriction policy, the risk of rising ocean freight, etc.

Rubber: The price of raw materials fluctuated in a narrow range, and the price of rubber continued to fluctuate.

On January 20, the most-active RU contract closed at 14940 (+40) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13450 (+50) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -1040 yuan/ton (-240); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 115580 (-1416) lots, the short position was 177661 (+1211) lots, and the net short position was 62081 (+2627) lots.

On January 20, the most-active NR contract closed at 12095 (-5) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,835 (-15) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,830 (-15) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,880 (-5) US dollars/ton.

As of January 14: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 239,925 tons (+5125), and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 219,910 tons (+4400).

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 55.05 (0), cup lump 49.15 (+0.6), latex 53.8 (+0.8), RSS3 59.11 (+0.82).

As of January 6, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 59.01% (+6.98%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 59.36% (-0.69%).

Opinion:

Strategy: Neutral

Risks:

1. Epidemic recurring

2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen

3. Weak demand

Crude oil: EIA crude oil and refined oil inventories increased.

EIA released inventory data yesterday, including crude oil and refined oil inventories increased, and the rate was higher than market expectations. Total oil inventories have increased for 3 consecutive weeks. From a global perspective, oil inventories have begun to bottom out in mid-December last year, which has shown that the global supply and demand gap has narrowed. Therefore, fundamentals are not the main driver of the current rise in oil prices. In terms of geopolitics, oil prices are also facing an impossible triangle. That is, for the United States, it is unlikely that it will remain strong against Russia on the Ukraine issue and remain unresolved on the Iranian nuclear issue, while keeping oil prices low. We believe that the United States will inevitably find a balance among them, so whether it is the situation in Ukraine or the Iran nuclear talks, there is a possibility of eventual reversal. For Saudi Arabia, because of Trump’s sanction waiver on Iran in 2018, the current oil price has been deeply bound to Biden’s diplomacy and inflation suppression strategy.

Strategy: tend to be neutrally bullish in the short term; Oil prices are currently at the upper edge of the range, investors can go short positions in the medium term

Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

Copper: The domestic interest rate cut cycle began, and copper prices continued to rise in the off-season.

View:

On the macro front, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that inflation is expected to remain above 2% in 2022. Even with reduced fiscal support, there is a buffer stock of accumulated savings that will continue to support the economy for years to come. Responsibility for tackling inflation is shared by the Fed and the Biden administration, with the desire and intent to bring inflation down to meet the Fed's price stability objective. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits in the week ended January 15 recorded 286,000, the highest since October last year. Analysts pointed out that the increase in initial jobless claims may be due to the outbreak of the Omicron virus strain. In addition, U.S. existing home sales fell for the first time in four months in December, due to fewer listings and higher interest rates. On the domestic front, China's one-year loan market quoted rate (LPR) was 3.7% in January, compared with an expected 3.7% and 3.8% last month. The 5-year LPR was 4.6% vs. 4.55% expected and 4.65% last month.

From a fundamental point of view, there is only more than a week left before the Spring Festival, and some downstream companies are gradually entering a state of holiday and production shutdown. In addition, the copper price of 70,000 yuan / ton continued to restrain downstream buying interest, making the market transaction insipid. On the other hand, holders of goods currently want to exchange for spot when the price is high, and the market quotation is far greater than the that of inquiry buyer. The downward trend of spot premiums was established, and the premiums and discounts of Shanghai copper fell for two consecutive days. Inventory in Guangdong fell again, and the premium and discount of South China copper remained unchanged from yesterday under the support of low inventory. In terms of scrap copper, the spread between refined copper and scrap copper continued to remain within a reasonable range. On the import side, the import window continued to be closed. LME0-3 maintains the Back structure, and market trading continues to maintain low activity. In terms of inventories, LME destocked slightly, while SHFE inventories were flat.

Overall, the domestic interest rate cut cycle has begun, and copper prices continue to rise in the off-season.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Inflection point of inventory

2. U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: The terminal quickly reduced production load before the Spring Festival, and the processing fee of PTA dropped slightly.

1. PX is still strong.

(1) Most of the Korean installations have reduced the production load to around 70% - 80%. South Korean suppliers are not active in signing long-term contracts for PTA factories, and the market is worried about more loss-making production cuts. The total production load of Zhejiang Petrochemical is still 60%-65%, and the increase rate is still slow. Against the background that Zhejiang Petrochemical's load is still not high, Asian PX is expected to quickly destock from January to February. The PX processing fee is expected to be firm, with a slight correction from the high level this week.

2. PTA processing fee fell slightly, but the rate of fall was slow.

(1) Fujian Chemical and Trade will be overhauled from January 3 to January 23. Yisheng Dahua's 2.25 million-ton capacity reduced the load to 70% on January 12. Since the end of December, the long-term contract signing process of Hengli in 2022 is still slow. If it is still not signed successfully in January, the circulation of the follow-up traders may be tightened, causing the circulation inventory to be transferred from the middle and lower reaches to the upper reaches.

3. The terminal end quickly reduces the production load before the Spring Festival.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. PTA processing fee is still strong in the short term, and PX processing fee is also strong.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA factory long-term contract signing progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿：LPR降幅略低预期，铁矿期现再度走强

观点与逻辑：

昨日，央行公布：本月1年期LPR报3.70%，上次为3.80%；5年期以上品种报4.60%，上次为4.65%，虽然5年期以上品种LPR下调幅度低于市场预期，但是不难看出政府实行宽松的货币政策的力度，叠加昨日钢联公布的产销存数据显示，五大材总体库存累库低于季节性，从而进一步提振市场信心。至收盘，铁矿石期货主力05合约742元/吨，较前一交易日上涨7元/吨。受期货影响，昨日进口铁矿港口现货价格小幅走强，全天累计上涨0-20元/吨。

整体来看，昨日央行公布的货币政策，完全符合2021年12月中旬中央经济工作会议要求，2022年经济工作要稳字当头、稳中求进，各地区各部门要担负起稳定宏观经济的责任，各方面要积极推出有利于经济稳定的政策，政策发力适当靠前；粗钢压产任务已提前完成，预计后期限产将变得更为温和，虽然铁矿仍在高库存状态，行政的产量限制政策，导致铁元素累库全部发生在矿端，如果成材消费持续向好，有望在产量管制放松后快速向矿端传导（去库）。趋势上，预计铁矿仍将表现为震荡偏强。

策略：

单边：震荡偏强

跨期：无

跨品种：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：原料价格窄幅波动，胶价延续震荡

20号，RU主力收盘14940（+40）元/吨，混合胶报价13450元/吨（+50），主力合约基差-1040元/吨（-240）；前二十主力多头持仓115580（-1416），空头持仓177661（+1211），净空持仓62081（+2627）。

20号，NR主力收盘价12095（-5）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1835（-15）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1830美元/吨（-15），印尼标胶1880（-5）美元/吨。

截至1月14日：交易所总库存239925（+5125），交易所仓单219910（+4400）。

原料：生胶片55.05（0），杯胶49.15（+0.6），胶水53.8（+0.8），烟片59.11（+0.82）。

截止1月13日，国内全钢胎开工率为59.01%（+6.98%），国内半钢胎开工率为59.36%(-0.69%）。

观点：上周国内港口库存迎来累库拐点，主要因近期到港量的小幅回升以及下游工厂采购降温导致的。因国内下游临近春节，预计后期国内港口库存将延续小幅累库的态势，但因船期并没有完全解决，国内港口季节性累库幅度不及往年，对于橡胶价格下方支撑仍存。同时，泰国主产区即将步入割胶淡季，国内全面停割下，后期国内供应压力仍较小，重点关注年后需求的回升情况，预计胶价有望维持重心上移的走势。年后一旦国内供应跟进不足，则可能导致现货紧张局面进一步加剧。在国内宏观宽松预期下，年后需求有望回暖，建议等待春节前后累库带来盘面回落机会，把握逢低买入机会。

策略：中性

风险：疫情反复，期现价差持续拉大，需求示弱等。

原油：EIA原油与成品油库存增加

昨日EIA公布库存数据，其中原油与成品油库存增加，且幅度高于市场预期，石油总库存已经连续3周增加，从全球的角度来看，石油库存在去年12月份中旬就已经开始见底反弹，这已经说明全球供需缺口有所收窄，因此，基本面不是当前油价上涨的主要推动因素，而在地缘政治方面，油价也面临一个不可能三角，即对于美国而言，不太可能即在乌克兰问题上对俄罗斯保持强势，又在伊核问题上悬而未决，同时让油价维持低位，我们认为美国必然会在其中寻找到一个平衡点，因此不管是乌克兰局势也好，还是伊朗核谈也好，均存在出现事件性反转的可能，而对于沙特而言，由于在2018年经历过川普对伊朗制裁豁免事件，因此在美国的牌没有打完之前会继续维持按兵不动，当前油价已经与拜登的外交以及压通胀策略深度绑定。

策略：短期中性偏强，油价位于区间上沿，中期空头对待

风险：中东地缘政治风险

铜：国内开启降息周期，淡季下铜价持续走高

观点：

宏观方面，美国财长耶伦表示，预计2022年通胀将保持在2％以上。即使财政支持减少，积累的储蓄中仍有缓冲存量，将在未来几年继续支持经济。应对通胀的责任由美联储和拜登政府共同承担，同时希望并打算将通胀降至符合美联储的价格稳定目标。美国至1月15日当周初请失业金人数录得28.6万人，为去年10月来新高。分析师指出，初请失业金领取人数的增长可能是因为奥密克戎毒株疫情。此外，美国12月二手房销量四个月来首次下滑，因房源减少且利率上升。国内方面，中国1月1年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为3.7%，预期为3.7%，上月为3.8%。5年期LPR为4.6%，预期为4.55%，上月为4.65%。

基本面来看，距离新年仅剩下一周多，部分下游逐渐进入放假停工的状态中，外加铜价站稳70000元/吨整数关口持续抑制下游买兴，市场交投清淡。另一方面，长单交易也逐渐减少下持货商都欲逢高换现，市场报价出货者远远大过询价买方，现货升水下调趋势确立，沪铜升贴水连续两日下降；广东库存重新走低，低库存支撑下华南铜升贴水较昨日持平。废铜方面，精废价差持续维持至合理区间。进口方面，进口窗口持续关闭，LME0-3维持Back结构，市场交投继续维持低活跃度。库存方面，LME小幅去库，SHFE库存持平。

整体看来，国内开启降息周期，淡季下铜价持续走高。

策略：

单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

库存拐点 2.美债收益率持续走高 3.疫情风险加剧

PTA：终端节前快速降负，PTA加工费小幅回落

一、PX仍坚挺

（1）韩国装置7-8成运行，韩国供应商对PTA工厂的长约签订不积极，市场担忧更多亏损性减产出现。浙石化总负荷仍在60%-65%，提负仍偏慢。浙石化负荷仍不高的背景下，亚洲PX1-2月快速去库预期，PX加工费预期坚挺，本周出现高位稍回调。

二、PTA加工费小幅回落，但回落幅度偏慢

（1）福化工贸1.3检修，1.21复工计划。12月底以来，恒力2022年长约签订进度仍慢，进入1月仍未顺利签订，后续贸易商环节的流通量或有所收紧，流通库存从中下游往上游转移，定价权的漂移支撑PTA加工费，但亦关注大厂后续会否让步。

三、终端节前快速降负

（1）江浙加弹降负至26%（-41%），江浙织机6%（-26%），终端进入假期模式快速降负。下游春节后备货集中在7-10天。

策略建议：（1）谨慎偏多。PTA加工费短期仍坚挺，PX加工费亦偏强。（2）跨期套利：观望。

原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂长约签订进度，亚洲PX加工费改善后的提负速率，聚酯工厂检修速率。