FangQuant › Strategies

### Mean Reversion_strategy

submitted 2022-07-17 15:05:55
# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
"""
Created on Sat Jul 16 13:27:31 2022

@author : fangfang666
"""

import math
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.dates as mdates
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from datetime import datetime
from WindPy import w
w.start()
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression

startDate = datetime(2019,1,1)
endDate = datetime(2022,7,15)
startDate_str = startDate.strftime("%Y%m%d")
endDate_str = endDate.strftime("%Y%m%d")

N=200
T0=10

data = w.wsd("CN00.SG,IH00.CFE,USDCNY.EX", "close", "%s"%startDate, "%s"%endDate, "")
df = pd.DataFrame(data.Data).T
df.columns = data.Codes
df.insert(0,"Times",data.Times)

df_train = df.iloc[:(N+T0)]

lineModel = LinearRegression()
lineModel.fit(df_train['CN00.SG']*df_train['USDCNY.EX'],
df_train[['IH00.CFE']]*300)

y = (df['IH00.CFE']*300).to_numpy()
x = (df['CN00.SG']*df['USDCNY.EX']).to_numpy()
wx = np.rint(lineModel.coef_[0])
wy = 1
e= wx*x -wy*y

# 止盈线倍数u
u=1.5
# 止损线倍数d
d=1
# 均线天数N
# N=50
# 统计输赢天数 T
# T0=50
# 起始资金
start_money=1.8e+06
# 区间宽度w
w=int(1/0.1)
# 最小数据比 θ
least_percentage=0.15

#根据历史上N+T+1的数据，更新偏离倍数和赢输的统计结果
def update_statistics(prices, pvs, winlose):
past_prices = prices[0:N]
current_price = prices[N]
future_prices = prices[(N+1):len(prices)]
#N天前的偏离倍数sigma
difference_times_sigma = math.floor(((current_price - past_prices.mean())/past_prices.std(ddof=1)) / 0.1)
#记录N天的sigma及输赢情况
if abs(difference_times_sigma)>=10 and abs(difference_times_sigma)<100 :
result=win_or_lose(current_price, future_prices, past_prices.std(ddof=1), difference_times_sigma)
pvs.append(difference_times_sigma)
winlose.append(result)

# 根据偏离倍数和赢输的统计结果，选择表现最好，且占比超过least_percentage的偏离倍数区间
def getRange(pvs, winlos):
if len(pvs) == 0:
return (0,0)
df=pd.DataFrame({"pvs":np.abs(pvs), "winlose":winlose})
total=len(pvs)
# 得到历史上偏离倍数的最大最小值
minp=np.abs(pvs).min()
maxp=np.abs(pvs).max()
best_ratio=0.0
lower, uper = minp, minp+w
if (maxp-w) > minp:
# 从最小值开始遍历
for sig in range(minp, maxp-w):
# 计算每个区间内"win"的比例，如果占比高，且数量达到最小比例，则更新最优的lower和uper
wls = df[(df["pvs"]>=sig) & (df["pvs"]<sig+w)]["winlose"]
if len(wls)/total >= least_percentage:
ratio=sum(wls=="win")/len(wls)
if best_ratio<ratio:
best_ratio=ratio
lower,uper=sig,sig+w
return lower, uper

# 根据当天价格price，之后T天的价格my_list,方差和偏离倍数，计算是输、赢还是平均
def win_or_lose(price, my_list, sigma, diff):
# 偏离倍数小于0，说明是买仓
if diff<0:
# 计算平仓线和止损线
upper_bound = price + u * sigma
lower_bound = price - d * sigma
# 未来T天内，先达到平仓线则win，反之则lose
for future_price in my_list:
if future_price >= upper_bound:
return 'win'
if future_price <= lower_bound:
return 'lose'
# 偏离倍数小于0，说明是卖仓
elif diff>0:
# 计算平仓线和止损线
upper_bound = price + d * sigma
lower_bound = price - u * sigma
# 未来T天内，先达到平仓线则win，反之则lose
for future_price in my_list:
if future_price >= upper_bound:
return 'lose'
if future_price <= lower_bound:
return 'win'
return 'even'

# 记录N日方差
sigmas=np.zeros(len(e))
# 记录N日偏离倍数
daily_sigma=np.zeros(len(e))
# 记录N日均值
mas=np.zeros(len(e))
# 记录每日买开数量
# 记录每日卖平数量
# 记录每日卖开数量
sells=np.zeros(len(e))
# 记录每日卖平数量
exitsells=np.zeros(len(e))
# 记录每日持仓数量
positions=np.zeros(len(e))
# 记录每日查询到的历史最优偏离倍数的上下线
lowerp=np.zeros(len(e))
upperp=np.zeros(len(e))

#用于记录偏离倍数和赢输的统计结果
pvs=[]
winlose=[]
for i in range(T0+N, len(e)):
# 计算当前价格，N天前的均值，方差
current_price=e[i]
past_prices=e[(i-N):i]
mas[i]=past_prices.mean()
sigmas[i]=past_prices.std(ddof=1)
# 根据历史T0+N+1天的表现，更新偏离倍数和赢输的统计结果
update_statistics(e[(i-T0-N):(i+1)], pvs, winlose)
# 根据更新的统计结果，找出最优的偏离倍数区间
rag=getRange(pvs,winlose)
lowerp[i],upperp[i]=rag
#计算当前的偏离倍数
times_sigma=(current_price - mas[i]) / sigmas[i]
daily_sigma[i]=times_sigma
#如果偏离倍数绝对值在最优区间内则下单
if abs(times_sigma*10)>=rag[0] and abs(times_sigma*10)<rag[1]:
# 偏离倍数小于0，说明是买仓
if times_sigma<0:
# 如果能拿到未来T天的价格,则一定会平仓
# 计算出平常的上下限，寻找平仓日期，找不到则为最后一天
if i+T0<len(e):
sel=i+T0
for j in range(i, i+T0):
upper_bound = current_price + u * sigmas[i]
lower_bound = current_price - d * sigmas[i]
if e[j]>=upper_bound or e[j]<=lower_bound:
sel = j
break
# 拿不到未来T天的价格，不能保证一定平仓
# 计算出平常的上下限，寻找平仓日期，找不到则继续持有
elif i+1 < len(e):
sel = -1
for j in range(i,len(e)):
upper_bound = current_price + u * sigmas[i]
lower_bound = current_price - d * sigmas[i]
if e[j]>=upper_bound or e[j]<=lower_bound:
sel = j
break
if sel > 0:
# 偏离倍数大于0，说明是卖仓
elif times_sigma>0:
sells[i]=1
# 如果能拿到未来T天的价格,则一定会平仓
# 计算出平常的上下限，寻找平仓日期，找不到则为最后一天
if i+T0<len(e):
sel=i+T0
for j in range(i,i+T0):
upper_bound = current_price + d * sigmas[i]
lower_bound = current_price - u * sigmas[i]
if e[j]>=upper_bound or e[j]<=lower_bound:
sel = j
break
exitsells[sel]=exitsells[sel]+sells[i]
# 拿不到未来T天的价格，不能保证一定平仓
# 计算出平常的上下限，寻找平仓日期，找不到则继续持有
elif i+1 < len(e):
sel = -1
for j in range(i, len(e)):
upper_bound = current_price + d * sigmas[i]
lower_bound = current_price - u * sigmas[i]
if e[j]>=upper_bound or e[j]<=lower_bound:
sel = j
break
if sel > 0:
exitsells[sel]=exitsells[sel]+sells[i]
# 根据更新持仓

#计算价差走势
price=wx*x-wy*y
#计算保证金
onecosts=wx*1000*7+wy*y*0.13

c1=price[(T0+N):len(price)]
c3=sells[(T0+N):len(e)]
c5=exitsells[(T0+N):len(e)]
c6=sigmas[(T0+N):len(e)]
c7=mas[(T0+N):len(e)]
c8=daily_sigma[(T0+N):len(e)]
c9=onecosts[(T0+N):len(onecosts)]
c11=e[(T0+N):len(e)]
c12=lowerp[(T0+N):len(e)]
c13=upperp[(T0+N):len(e)]

"masN":c7,"p":c8,"onecosts":c9,"positions":c10,"e":c11,
"lowerp":c12,"upperp":c13})
xs=df['Times'][(T0+N):len(price)]

num,_=datas.shape

moneys = np.zeros(num)
moneys[0] = start_money

# 计算每日盈亏及资金变化
for i in range(1, num):
earn = (datas["price"][i] - datas["price"][i-1])*datas["positions"][i-1]
moneys[i] = moneys[i-1] + earn

# 计算回撤值
drawDownRatios=np.zeros(num)
drawDownRatios[0]=(1-moneys[0]/start_money)
for i in range(1,num):
maxprev=max(max(moneys[0:i]),start_money)
drawDownRatios[i]=max((1-moneys[i]/ maxprev),0)

# 输出结果
last_money=moneys[num-1]
annual_return=(last_money/start_money - 1)/num*250
print("start money:" + str(start_money)+ ", end money: "+str(last_money))
print("earn:" + str(last_money-start_money))
margins=abs(datas["onecosts"]*datas["positions"])
print("Max Margin:" + str(max(margins)))
print("Max Risk:" + str(max(margins/moneys)))
print("Annual return: "+str(annual_return))
print("Max Max Drawdown(Ratio): " + str(max(drawDownRatios)))

plt.plot(xs, moneys)
plt.plot(xs, -drawDownRatios)

out = pd.ExcelWriter('Mean Reversion.xlsx')
datas.insert(0,"Date",xs.to_list())
datas.to_excel(out)
out.save()