I. Background of the Survey

Guangxi is the largest sugar-producing region in China, home to numerous sugar mills, processors, traders, and end-users in the food industry. In the new season, both the sugarcane planting area and per-unit yield are expected to increase. However, the region has also experienced typhoon weather and other natural disasters, leading to market uncertainty about the actual sugar output. Therefore, we conducted a field survey in Guangxi, the main sugar-producing region.

II. Survey Route

Liuzhou – Laibin – Nanning – Chongzuo – Fangchenggang

III. Survey Summary

Overall, the sugarcane planting area in Guangxi has increased. Due to abundant rainfall this year, the per-unit yield of sugarcane has also risen, leading to a significant increase in total sugarcane output. However, the sugar content has declined, though total sugar production is still expected to increase.

Planting Area:

Driven by the policy of converting eucalyptus plantations back to sugarcane fields and subsidies provided by the government and sugar mills, farmers’ enthusiasm for planting sugarcane has increased. Over the past two years, the sugarcane planting area has grown. In northern Guangxi, the increase is particularly noticeable, with many areas seeing a rise of around 10%. Central and southern Guangxi also show significant growth. However, the intensity of the “eucalyptus-to-sugarcane” conversion is expected to decrease next year, and subsidies may weaken. In two to three years, support could diminish further. Without subsidies, farmers may lose interest in sugarcane farming, as it is labor-intensive and not significantly more profitable than other crops. Eucalyptus, for example, yields about 1,000 yuan per mu annually and requires much less labor. As the rural population ages and labor becomes scarcer, more farmers may opt for eucalyptus. Therefore, we expect the sugarcane planting area in Guangxi to continue increasing next year, but at a slower rate. In the long run, the area may stabilize or even decline. Most sugar mills indicated that their future focus will be on stabilizing acreage and increasing per-unit yield.

Lodging Conditions:

In northern Guangxi, lodging is not severe. In fact, the typhoons in late September and October brought more rainfall, which benefited sugarcane growth. In central Guangxi, lodging has increased, with a higher proportion of moderate to severe cases and the emergence of side shoots. In southern Guangxi, lodging is more serious, affecting about 70% of the crop, with 10% being severely lodged. However, many lodged canes have started to grow upright again. Since the typhoons occurred in late September and October, after most of the sugarcane growth was complete, the impact on yield is limited. Still, the post-typhoon period is crucial for sugar accumulation, so severely lodged canes may see reduced sugar content. Lodging also increases the difficulty of harvesting.

Sugarcane Yield:

This year, both the planting area and per-unit yield have increased significantly, leading to a substantial rise in sugarcane output across most regions. From north to south, northern Guangxi saw the largest increase, with output rising over 20%. Central and southern Guangxi also saw increases of over 10%. Abundant rainfall starting in May and the typhoons in September and October benefited sugarcane growth. During the survey, we observed very dense and thick-stemmed sugarcane in some fields, with yields potentially reaching 7–8 tons per mu. However, such varieties tend to have lower sugar content. Farmers favor these varieties because even at the purchase price of 510 yuan/ton, the returns are decent. However, this is less ideal for sugar mills, which may need to be more selective in their procurement.

Sugar Content:

Increased rainfall starting in May boosted yields but also reduced sugar content. Most sugar mills reported a decline in sugar content, with estimates ranging from 1 to 2 percentage points. However, since the milling season runs from November to March or April of the following year, there is still time for sugar content to recover. We expect the final sugar extraction rate to be about 1 percentage point lower than last year.

Sugar Output:

Most of the sugar mills surveyed expect an increase in sugar production.

A total of six sugar mills were surveyed, with an estimated combined output of about 850,000 tons. These sample enterprises account for over 10% of Guangxi’s total sugar output. Based on last year’s total output of 6.46 million tons and an estimated increase of about 8.28%, this year’s sugar output in Guangxi is expected to reach around 7 million tons. However, this is still the peak period for sugar accumulation, and final output remains highly uncertain. Weather conditions in the coming weeks will play a critical role. If conditions are favorable, sugar content may still improve. If cloudy or rainy weather persists, sugar accumulation will be hindered, and final output may fall short of current expectations.