Q&A--Dec 27,2016

FangQuant › Policy

Fang • submitted 2016-12-27 13:33:37

1) Any worry about a Jan16 repeat in Jan17? Rate hike and dots higher from Fed?

Ans: Expected no repeat of Jan 2016 as momentum and valuation different ;Fed 's action mostly priced in.

2) What is the view on the insurers. Will they get hammered again for investing? It feels like it affects their ability to invest in H-shares as well through Connect

Ans: Regulators allowed insures to invest, but not too aggressively . so we expected the worst hammering passed.

3) Liquidity normally weak going into CNY? Looks like reverse repos expired yesterday as well?

Ans: Money tightness ‘s seasonal by the end of the year, and this year people should worry about bond risk and CNYUSD risk as well, so liquidity could be weak into CNY and PBOC should provide more rev repo into the holiday season.

4) As trump potentially bringing in inflation, China have a potential trade war with US. so have an OPEC deal which brings inflation again. feels like inflation in china is strong, PMI, CPI and money supply in general; i think an interest rate hike in china is not impossible. in particular with CNY deprec pressures and the fx reserves right a 3trillion;
either deprec the currency strongly and take out liquidity from market as inflation is starting to look strong,or increase the rate and hurt the property mkt, either way its very big headwinds.

Ans: it's not that helpful to foresee CPI as it;s on energy and food prices mostly, which are not that predictable , but it's ok to watch commodities and CNYUSD more close; it's too early to call for strong inflation, given under 6.5% growth won't fuel much demand for commodities.

Copyright by FangQuant.com

Disclaimer: The information on this website is for general informational purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security, currency, investment, service or to attract any funds or deposits. Save to the extent provided otherwise in the Terms and Conditions for Accounts and Services or other applicable terms and conditions, information in this website has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Therefore, investment products mentioned in this website may not be suitable for all investors. Any person considering an investment should seek independent advice on the suitability or otherwise of a particular investment. Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making an investment decision. Each investor should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives.

Currently no Comments.

author: Fang

Hot Topics

The 13rd China International Future Forum Financial institutions deep explore commodity market opportunities, commodity index financial products show full-scale trend The Shanghai Derivatives Energy Forum has received extensive attention from relevant industries both within and outside the borders. New indicator to analyze the arbitrage opportunities between sse50 and csi500 The Great China Bubble: Anniversary Lessons and Outlook Market review: January 11, 2017 R-Code for analysis: getKDJ The hedge strategy between SSE50 and A50--Jan 13,2017 The arbitraging strategy between CSI300 and SSE50 R-Code@June 06, 2016 MSCI Rebuffs Chinese Equities for Third Time in Blow to Xi Sleepless in London--Enda Homan(Allied Irish Banks Plc) Quant Investment in China A-share market Soros, Druckenmiller among hedgies profiting in market plunge Market review: June 17, 2016

Links

Contact Me: sherry_ustc@163.com