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Chinese Crude Oil futures has a certain International market influence already

Fang submitted 2018-06-29 15:56:21

On June 26th, after 3 months since the listing of Chinses crude oil futures, the Chinese crude oil futures and energy market symposium was held by the Xiamen University Economic Institute and Wang Yanan Institute of economic research. Experts attending the meeting believe that the international impact of Chinses crude oil futures has emerged.


Yang Jian, director of the research center of the Morgan Datong commodity research center in the University of Colorado (Denver campus), believes that crude oil futures are the first international futures introduced by China. Therefore, a very important issue is how much the price changes and volatility of the Chinese crude oil market are with the current two major international crude oil futures. There is international interaction in the market. Through empirical analysis, Yang Jian and Professor Zhou Yinggang of Xiamen University had the following findings:


First, in the short 3 months, the average price change of Chinses crude oil futures has been highly related to the two major international crude oil futures, and the correlation coefficient is at least 0.7. At the same time, the price changes of Chinses crude oil futures have had a significant positive impact on the price change of the two international crude oil futures. The two major international crude oil futures do not all have a positive effect. WTI seems to have more influence than Brent. This is an empirical evidence for the successful operation of Chinses crude oil futures.


Secondly, from the perspective of volatility, Chinese crude oil futures and the two international crude oil futures have two-way spillover effect, and the information transfer between markets is good, which shows that Chinese crude oil futures have a significant impact on the international crude oil futures market, which is another empirical evidence for the successful operation of Chinses crude oil futures. At the same time, Chinese crude oil futures, like the two major international crude oil futures, will be more volatile when the price falls, but the asymmetry of this volatility is particularly evident in the Chinese crude oil futures market. This reflects the potential risk of price volatility caused by the downward price of Chinese crude oil futures market, which is just starting. It is much larger than the two big international crude oil futures markets which are very mature for several decades.


The third, in 2 major international crude oil futures and Chinese crude oil futures markets, no matter which two markets both prices fall at the same time, the prices of these two markets will become larger, and the relative coefficient shows that the range is basically comparable. This further reflects that Chinese crude oil futures market has been highly integrated with the two major international crude oil futures markets, reflecting Chinses crude oil futures has a certain international market influence and status. In particular, after the first few days of exploration in China's crude oil futures trading, it quickly fused with the WTI crude oil market. In the first month of the transaction, the correlation coefficient reached more than 0.7, and two months was basically up to 0.8. In contrast, China's crude oil futures market spent more time exploring with Brent. After the initial integration of the crude oil market, the correlation coefficient also reached more than 0.7 after a month of trading; but after more than two months, the degree of market relevance has been obvious fluctuations, the correlation coefficient fell to less than 0.6 for several times.


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