Global investors’ participation of INE crude oil futures rose ’

Shanghai crude oil futures has been running for nearly a hundred days since it was listed on March 26th. Considering daily average volume, it has exceeded the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME) Oman crude oil futures and became the largest crude oil futures contract in Asia. It is only after the US New York WTI crude oil futures and the Brent crude oil futures (Brent), becoming top 3 in trading volume.

"A lot of European investment institutions and crude oil traders took a wait-and-see attitude last year and worried that the trading volume of Shanghai crude oil futures was not big enough, the trading was not active, and the correlation between its price and the price of the international mainstream crude oil futures was low. But since the list of Shanghai crude oil futures, they found that the whole market run smoothly and the linkage with the price of international mainstream varieties is increasing, and turned out to be optimistic about the development of Shanghai crude oil futures.” Bill Herde, President of the Global Futures Industry Association Asia branch, told reporter.

In his view, as more and more global institutional investors participate in Shanghai crude oil futures investment and provide a diversified trading strategy, it will continue to drive the activity of Shanghai crude oil futures trading, making its price fluctuations more closely related to international mainstream varieties, and eventually bringing more convenient hedging operations for enterprises. Continuously enhance the voice of Shanghai crude oil futures in the international crude oil market pricing field.

The linkage of prices tends to be close

The head of a number of private refineries told reporters that since the Shanghai crude oil futures were listed, they have been studying the fluctuation logic of the Shanghai crude oil futures and the linkage between the domestic and international contracts. Some of them have begun to test oil futures hedging operations.

"there was a concern that Shanghai crude oil futures and international mainstream varieties are not in strong linkage, then the hedging strategy may be invalidated. Later we found that, within a few days, the Shanghai crude oil futures prices rapidly converge with the United States WTI crude oil futures prices and the price volatility correlation coefficient was stable and over 0.7 at the end of April, further Up to 0.8 at the end of May. So we decided to enter the market to participate in hedging operations.” A private refinery and chemical company in Shandong told reporters. At present, their hedging strategy is mainly across location arbitrage, the reason is that Shanghai crude oil futures is similar to the US WTI, and the price fluctuation period is far beyond the price rise period, so they increased the cross location trade of the two major varieties during the period of the global crude oil price fall in May and June to lock appropriate cost for the import of crude oil.

The head of the private refinery also found that the linkage of Shanghai crude oil futures and the UK Brent crude oil futures is relatively low, and only since the middle of May, the correlation coefficient of the price fluctuations is more than 0.7.

A Futures Company crude oil trading analyst pointed out that this was a significant increase in Chinese imports this year, especially since the two quarter of the US WTI and UK Brent crude oil futures spread, which was at a time of more than $9 a barrel in the past three years, making Chinese companies increasing WTI importation for cheaper price. Then corresponding hedging make the price linkage between Shanghai crude oil futures and the US WTI crude oil futures more closely linked.

The heads of private refineries told reporters that at the moment they were also around the low linkage between the Brent crude oil futures and the Shanghai crude oil futures prices, to study the corresponding new strategy of cross location arbitrage trading, including selling Brent crude oil futures and buying the Shanghai crude oil futures during the Brent crude oil price rise higher than the Shanghai crude oil futures to get the corresponding cross location earnings to offset the expense of Brent crude oil imports.

In his view, whether the price linkage between Shanghai crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures will continue to rise in the short term depends on the spot delivery volume. Once the price fluctuation linkage increases, more and more downstream enterprises will increase their willingness to deliver crude oil through Shanghai crude oil futures warehouse receipt.

The reporter learned that in June 21st, Dalian Port oil terminal completed the ship unloading operation of the Singapore oil tanker "Asian progress 5", and successfully unloaded the first ship of Futures Crude Oil to the designated delivery tank of Dalian CNPC. This means that the first ship of futures crude oil will go to the port for storage, and Chinese crude oil futures will enter the substantive stage of actual delivery.

In the view of the Futures Company crude oil analysts, to further enhance the linkage between the Shanghai crude oil futures and the international two major crude oil futures, it is necessary to solve the bottleneck of the trading activity of the forward contract of Shanghai crude oil futures.

Seamless linkage with Middle East crude oil futures price volatility.

It is worth noting that while Shanghai crude oil futures and the world's two major crude oil futures price volatility is increasingly related, it achieves seamless linkage with the Middle East region Oman crude oil futures price.

Olivier Denappe, director of the Dubai Mercantile Exchange, told reporters that Shanghai crude oil futures had completed the closed loop of the global crude oil futures market, and the current crude oil price fluctuations in the two markets of the Middle East and China were fully linked, that is, the Oman crude oil futures contract and Shanghai crude oil futures were highly correlated.

In the view of multiple crude oil futures industry members, it is mainly due to the increasingly active cross location arbitrage trading between Shanghai crude oil futures and the Dubai Mercantile Exchange Oman crude oil futures. On the one hand both adopt medium sulfur crude oil as the trade mark, on the other hand, about 30% of Oman crude oil is imported to the Chinese market, so It is quite convenient for the crude oil trade enterprise of the industry and investment fund to carry out cross location arbitrage transactions, so as to enhance the price correlation between them.

This makes Shanghai crude oil futures price increase of influence on the Middle East.

Chen Bo, the general manager of the China International Petroleum and Chemical Joint Company, said that the Middle East oil producers along the ‘The Belt and Road’ are paying close attention to the progress of Shanghai crude oil futures and exploring how to use Shanghai crude oil futures to expand their sales share in the Asia Pacific region.

In the Futures Company crude oil analyst's view, this price influence is mainly reflected in the Shanghai crude oil futures are eliminating the so-called "Asian premium." In the past, the Far East countries had no crude oil pricing power, so many international crude traders sold the Middle East crude oil to the Far East countries, taking advantage of the strong demand of the Far East countries and charging an extra $1-2 / pail premium. With the increasing influence of Shanghai crude oil futures in the Middle East, more and more international crude traders are willing to export crude oil to China with Shanghai crude oil futures price as the pricing benchmark, thus eliminating the so-called Asian rising water and effectively reducing the cost of raw oil procurement for Chinese enterprises.

Reporters learned that the Sinopec, a Sinopec wholly owned subsidiary, had signed a crude oil supply agreement with Shell Companies. From September this year, the Middle East crude oil supplied by Shell United Petrochemical will take the Shanghai crude oil futures as the benchmark.

“In the near future, there are many international crude traders with Chinese crude oil importers to sign a similar crude oil supply agreement, taking Shanghai crude oil futures as the benchmark." Agus Alejandro Barbajosa, vice president of business development, told reporters. (twenty-first Century economic report Chen Zhi)

上海原油期货自3月26日上市以来运行近百日，仅日均成交量一项，其已经超过迪拜商品交易所（DME）阿曼原油期货品种，成为亚洲交易量最大的原油期货合约，仅次于美国纽约WTI原油期货与英国布伦特原油期货（Brent），跻身全球交易量前三。

“去年不少欧洲投资机构与原油贸易商对此持观望态度，担心上海原油期货成交量不够大，交易不够活跃，与国际主流原油期货品种价格联动性偏低。但在上海原油期货上市交易以来，他们发现整个市场平稳运行且与国际主流品种的价格联动日益增强，转而看好上海原油期货发展并纷纷入场。”全球期货业协会亚洲分会会长Bill Herde告诉记者。

在他看来，随着越来越多全球机构投资者参与上海原油期货投资并提供多元化的交易策略，将持续带动上海原油期货交易活跃度，令其价格波动与国际主流品种的关联性日益紧密，最终为企业带来更便利的套期保值操作同时，不断提升上海原油期货在国际原油市场定价领域的话语权。

价格联动趋于紧密

多位民营炼化企业负责人向记者表示，自上海原油期货上市后，他们一直在研究上海原油期货盘面波动逻辑、以及内外盘联动关系。其中部分企业已经开始试水内外盘原油期货套期保值操作。

“此前企业内部担心上海原油期货与国际主流品种价格联动不强，套保策略可能会失效，后来发现上海原油期货上市交易几天内，就迅速与美国WTI原油期货品种高度融合，4月底两者价格波动相关系数稳定在0.7以上，5月底进一步上升到0.8，决定入市参与套期保值操作。”一家山东民营炼化企业负责人告诉记者。目前他们套期保值策略主要以跨地套利交易为主，原因是上海原油期货与美国WTI类似，在价格下跌期间价格波动幅度远远超过价格上涨期，因此他们在5-6月份全球原油价格冲高回落期间加大了两大品种的跨地利差交易额度，锁定原油进口的合适成本。

上述民营炼化企业负责人还发现， 相比之下上海原油期货与英国布伦特原油期货的价格联动融合比较缓慢，在5月中旬两者价格波动的相关系数才稳定在0.7以上。

一位期货公司原油交易分析师指出，这背后，是今年以来中国企业对美国原油进口大幅增加，尤其是二季度以来美国WTI与英国布伦特原油期货价差一度创下过去三年以来最高点逾9美元/桶，令中国企业不断增加价格更加便宜的美国WTI原油期货进口量并进行相应的套期保值，令上海原油期货与美国WTI原油期货的价格联动性更加紧密。

上述民营炼化企业负责人向记者表示，目前他们也在围绕布伦特原油期货与上海原油期货价格联动偏低的特点，研究相应的跨地套利交易新策略——包括在布伦特原油价格涨幅高于上海原油期货期间卖出布伦特原油期货并买入等额的上海原油期货，获取相应的跨地利差收益抵消布伦特原油进口的溢价费用。

在他看来，上海原油期货与布伦特原油期货的价格联动性短期内是否持续回升，还取决于现货交割量。一旦两者价格波动联动性提高，越来越多原油下游企业借上海原油期货仓单交割进口原油的意愿就会不断增强。

记者了解到，6月21日大连港油品码头完成对新加坡籍油船“亚洲进步5”轮的卸船作业，顺利将国内首船期货原油卸至大连中石油国际储运有限公司的指定交割库。这意味着首船期货原油正式到港入库，中国原油期货交易将进入实质性交割阶段。

在上述期货公司原油分析师看来，要进一步提升上海原油期货与国际两大主流原油期货品种的价格联动性，还需要解决上海原油期货远期合约交易活跃度的瓶颈。

与中东原油期货价格波动“无缝对接”

值得注意的是，在上海原油期货与全球两大原油期货品种价格波动关联性日益紧密同时，它与中东地区阿曼原油期货价格波动悄然实现无缝对接。

迪拜商品交易所董事Olivier Denappe告诉记者，上海原油期货已完成全球原油期货市场的闭环，当前中东和中国两个市场的原油价格波动是完全联动的，即阿曼原油期货合约和上海原油期货存在高度联动性。

在多位原油期货业内人士看来，这主要得益于上海原油期货与迪拜商品交易所阿曼原油期货之间的跨地套利交易日益活跃，一方面两者均采取中质含硫原油作为交易标的，另一方面阿曼原油约30%输往中国市场，因此原油贸易企业与投资基金开展跨地套利交易相当便利，带动两者价格相关性持续增强。

这令上海原油期货在中东地区的价格影响力持续增强。

中国国际石油化工联合有限责任公司总经理陈波表示，“一带一路”沿线的中东产油商正密切关注上海原油期货的进展，深入探讨如何利用上海原油期货扩大他们在亚太地区的销售份额。

在上述期货公司原油分析师看来，这种价格影响力，主要表现在上海原油期货正在消除所谓的“亚洲升水”。以往由于远东国家没有原油定价权，因此不少国际原油贸易商将中东原油卖给远东国家时，会利用远东国家原油需求旺盛的特点，额外收取1-2美元/桶溢价费用。如今随着上海原油期货在中东地区影响力日益增强的情况下，越来越多国际原油贸易商愿意以上海原油期货报价作为定价基准向中国出口原油，由此消除了所谓的亚洲升水，有效降低中国企业原油采购成本。

记者了解到，此前中国石化全资子公司中国国际石油化工联合有限责任公司与壳牌公司签署原油供应长约协议，从今年9月起，壳牌供应联合石化的中东原油将以上海原油期货作为计价基准。

“近期还有不少国际原油贸易商与中国原油进口商签订类似的原油供应长约协议，将上海原油期货作为定价基准。”阿格斯商务拓展副总裁 Alejandro Barbajosa向记者透露。

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