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What are the current expectations for the delivery of iron ore 1809 contract?

Fang submitted 2018-08-14 20:25:03


On September 13, 2017, DCEDalian Commodity Exchange has revised the quality standards for iron ore futures contracts, the new delivery rules began with the iron ore 1809 contract. Mainly tightening the standard of substitutes for silicon, aluminum and phosphorus, and increased the backwardation.

As new standards tighten the delivery requirements for silicon and aluminum, Toke powder and SSNG exited the range of deliverables. Although Mac fines,Jimblebar fines,BRBF, Roy hill fines can still be delivered,but with increased backwardation. Especially BRBF due to high silicon content, backwardation increased significantly. Pb fines and Newman fines as mainstream minerals, the contango and backwardation does not change. But under the current market structure, it is also impossible to deliver with IOCJ. Measuring the current market with new standards, the future price will converge to the sub-mainstream minerals represented by Jimblebar fines. Combine current market conditions, for the iron ore 1809 contract shorts, the current cost-effective deliverable is Jimblebar fines (The current RTX spot price discounted disk price is higher than that of Jimblebar fines, delivery is not cost effective, and have been purchased by steel mills, therefore, the Jimblebar fines is still the mainstream delivery of the 1809 contract.).

As for the volume of iron ore futures shrinking, and fluidity become poor, the industry believesnot due to changes in iron ore delivery quality standards, but because of the oversupply of iron ore and China's capacity reduction policy, cause iron ore prices to approach the FMG cost line, so that can't short iron ore,resulting in a shrinking volume of iron ore futures, and fluidity become poor.


① 市场目前对铁矿石1809交割有何预期?

② 关于铁矿石1809交割,目前有没有什么相关的消息?对铁矿石1809交割有何影响?

③ 铁矿石交割质量标准的改变,对铁矿石1809交割有何影响?

④ 铁矿石期货流动性变差,是何原因所致?

2017年9月13日,大商所对铁矿石期货合约质量标准进行了修改,新的交割规则自铁矿石1809合约开始施行。主要是收紧了硅、铝、磷的替代品标准,并加大了贴水程度。

新标准由于收紧了硅、铝的交割要求,托克粉、SSNG退出了可交割品范围。而麦克粉、金布巴粉、BRBF、罗伊山粉仍然可以交割,但贴水幅度加大。特别是BRBF由于硅含量较高,单项贴水指标大幅增加。PB粉和纽曼粉作为主流矿种,升贴水没有发生变化。卡粉由于主要指标均优于交割标准,升贴水也没有发生变化。但目前市场结构下,也不可能用卡粉来交割。以新标准衡量目前市场,期价将向金步巴粉为代表的次主流矿种收敛。

结合当前市场状况,对于铁矿石1809合约空头方来说,目前成本最优的可交割品为金布巴粉(目前到港的RTX现货价格折算盘面价格较金步巴高,交割并不划算,且已被钢厂采购,故仍以金布巴粉为1809合约的主流交割品。)

至于铁矿石期货成交量萎缩,流动性变差,业内人士认为,并非系由铁矿石交割质量标准改变所致,盖因铁矿石供过于求,叠加中国去产能政策等因素,造成铁矿石价格逼近FMG成本线,降无可降,以至于无法做空铁矿石,从而导致铁矿石期货成交量萎缩,流动性变差。


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