Since August, Shanghai crude oil futures continued to strengthen, on August 7th opened, SC crude oil futures rose sharply, half an hour later reached the price stop. The rapid rise in SC crude oil is mainly due to the buy close of the main contract delivery month, and the current delivery warehouse registration warehouse limited, so short side is obviously passive. "Long catch short" market lead to crude oil futures in Shanghai fluctuate away from international crude oil future prices, began to soar rapidly.

First, scarce warehouse receipts, long side sniping short side.

The actual registered warehouse receipts of Shanghai crude oil futures since its listing on March 26 were scarce, and there were no new warehouse receipts until June 26. At present, the main contract holdings of Shanghai crude oil futures remain at around 25-30,000 hands, much higher than the number of warehouse receipts registered, making short positions in a passive situation. As making delivery from the Middle East to China needs at least 25 days shipping time, so it would be too late for delivery by short sside. If there are not enough resources for the short side to make the delivery, they have to close the positions.

Second, the impact of RMB devaluation

The recent devaluation of the RMB has also boosted the price of Shanghai crude oil in in theory. Generally speaking, the depreciation of the RMB, for the seller of crude oil, will reduce the willingness to sell, while for the buyer, the willingness to buy increased, under the dual effect of factors, will promote the SC crude oil strength.

Shanghai crude oil futures haven't shown any correlation with the RMB exchange rate trend for quite a long time since it was listed. It shows more correlation with the trend of foreign crude oil and US dollar. However, since later July, the trend of Shanghai crude oil futures and RMB exchange rate has been gradually "on link ".

In addition, the overall pattern of supply and demand in the global crude oil market has also contributed to boost the price of Shanghai crude oil futures. At present, global crude oil stocks have declined in an all-round way, reaching the OPEC target of "lowering OECD stocks to a five-year average". Global oil supply and demand are in a "tight balance", and crude oil supply in many regions has been reduced. And OPEC's increased crude oil production is difficult to compensate for the loss of supply.

Third, SC prices soared, selling delivery arbitrage window opened due to the rapid rise in Shanghai crude oil futures prices, and Oman crude oil CIF costs (including storage costs, Hong Kong incidental charges, etc.) from negative to positive, the price gap gradually widened. According to estimates, the current Shanghai crude oil futures price and Oman's original CIF costs (including storage costs, incidental charges, etc.) price difference in 2.5 USD / barrel. The key issue is whether there is enough supply in the market to ensure delivery. With storage time, the delivery of middle-quality sour crude oil from Middle East will take at least one month to be shipped to China. However, according to market news, although the SC crude oil registration warehouse receipts are few, many players have already bought a large number of Middle East quality crude oil shipments and placed in bonded oil depots. However, they did not generate warehouse receipts, but were waiting for oil prices to strengthen.

The trend of Shanghai crude oil futures has also highlighted the risk of "speculative market dominance". At present, the holding and trading of Shanghai crude oil futures are relatively low, reflecting that the holding is mainly speculative customers, trading mainly in recent months, which is not conducive for the flexible participation of hedging customers. It is precisely because of this that Shanghai crude oil futures have scarce warehouse receipts, resulting in the emergence of "long catch short" market. Whether "long catch short" market will keep SC crude oil soaring depends on when the seller enters the market after the selling window is opened, and on the other hand, on the geopolitical risks and policy changes. “多逼空”行情对 SC1809 交割的影响

进入 8 月份以来，上海原油期货连续走强，8 月 7 日开盘，SC 原油期货急速拉涨，半小时后即到达涨停价位。SC 原油的快速上扬主要由于临近主力合约交割月份，而当前交割库注册仓单有限，空头明显处于被动，“多逼空”使得上海原油期货脱离外盘，开始急速飙升。

一、仓单稀少，多头狙击空头

上海原油期货自 3 月 26 日上市以来实际注册仓单稀少，直至 6月 26 日首次出现注册仓单，位于中油大连交割库，注册仓单为 50 万桶，仅为 500 手，并于 7 月 31 日减少为 10 万桶（100 手），此后无新仓单生成。

当前上海原油期货主力合约持仓量维持在 2.5-3 万手左右水平，远远高于注册仓单数量，使得空头处于被动地位，从中东拉货到中国需要至少 25 天船期，来不及进行交割。而如果空头没有足够的资源进场交割，恐怕只能平仓离场。

二、人民币贬值影响

近期人民币持续贬值，理论上亦提振了以人民币计价的上海原油期货价格。一般来说，人民币贬值，对于原油卖方来说，卖出意愿降低，而对于买方来说，购买意愿增加，双重因素作用下，会推升 SC 原油走强。

上海原油期货自上市后的相当长一段时间，并未表现出与人民币汇率走势的相关性，更多地表现出与外盘原油、美元走势的关联，不过自 7 月下旬开始，上海原油期货与人民币汇率的走势逐渐“上轨道”。

除此以外，全球原油市场的整体供需格局亦助推了上海原油期货价格，目前全球原油库存全面下滑，已经达到欧佩克规定的“经合组织库存降低到五年期均值”的目标，全球石油供应、需求处于“紧平衡”，多地区原油供应减少，欧佩克增加的原油产量难以弥补供应减少的损失量。

三、SC 价格飙升，卖出交割套利窗口开启由于上海原油期货价格的快速拉升，其与阿曼原油到岸成本（包含入库成本、港杂费等）价差由负转正，价差逐渐拉大。据测算，当前上海原油期货价格与阿曼原有到岸成本（包含入库成本、港杂费等）价差在 2.5 美元/桶。当前价格对于投资者来说比较适合做卖出交割，关键问题是市场上是否有足够的货源来保证交割，交割品质为中东品质中质含硫原油，运至中国加上入库时间要至少一个月。不过据市场消息，虽然 SC 原油的注册仓单较少，但有不少玩家早在此前已经大量购入了中东品质原油船货，放置于保税油库内，但并未生成仓单，静待油价走强。

上海原油期货走势也凸显了“投机盘主导“的风险性，当前上海原油期货的持仓成交比较低，反映了持仓以投机客户为主，成交主要集中在近月，不利于套期保值客户灵活地参与，也正是因为如此，使得上海原油期货上市以来仓单生成稀少，致使出现“多逼空”行情。

那么“多逼空”是否会令 SC 原油持续疯涨，一方面要看卖出交割窗口开启后，卖方何时进场交割；另一方面，也要及时关注地缘政治风险及政策变化。

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