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Shanghai crude oil futures rose for 8 consecutive trading days International crude oil prices still have room for growth in the fourth quarter

Fang submitted 2018-10-11 10:16:43

Shanghai crude oil futures rose for 8 consecutive trading days

International crude oil prices still have room for growth in the fourth quarter

Summary of recent situation of China's crude oil futures market

On October 9, 2018, Shanghai crude oil futures prices rose to a record high! The entire energy sector in the commodity market is arrogant, and even more amazing is that even the energy stocks in the weak A-share market have risen. Shanghai crude oil futures rose sharply, and energy and chemical futures hit a daily limit.

After the opening of the market on October 9, 2018, in the absence of significant fluctuations in international crude oil prices, Shanghai crude oil futures prices fluctuated upward. The main contract SC1812 closed at 592.9 yuan / barrel, an increase of up to 4.05%. It has risen for eight consecutive days, and the price has reached a new high since its listing. In addition to crude oil futures, the prices of energy and chemical futures rose sharply, fuel oil and methanol soared to the daily limit. Such as the main contract of fuel oil futures rose 5.98% to 3648 yuan / ton, and the increase has exceeded 16% in just over half a month.

Wang Xiao, director of research on crude oil of Guotai Junan Futures, says that “China crude oil and fuel oil prices both rose sharply, and fuel oil futures hit the daily limit once. From a fundamental perspective, during the National Day holiday, there was a significant increase in international crude oil prices due to concerns about supply shortages caused by US sanctions against Iran, China's crude oil futures prices also followed the international oil price after the long holiday ended. And considering that China is the biggest buyer of Iranian crude oil, the shortage of supply caused by the Iranian issue may have a greater impact on China. Therefore, the price trend of China's crude oil futures is significantly higher than the foreign crude oil price trend recently. Fuel oil, due to the United Arab Emirates’s consideration of restarting the RFCC(Residue Fluidized Catalytic Cracking), may lead to a reduction in fuel oil supply, so fuel oil futures are stronger with the help of rising crude oil prices. At the same time, it can be seen that in the case of a reduction in the reserve ratio in China, the interest rate spread between China and the United States may continue to narrow, leading to the market's expectation that the future crude oil import cost will continue to rise, this is one of the reasons for pushing up oil prices.”

Dongwu Futures Research Institute reported, Saudi Arabia and Russia increased production, and international oil prices fell sharply. However, the largest oil refinery explosion in Canada and another hurricane are about to come to help boost oil prices. The tropical storm "Michael" of the Atlantic has been reinforced into a hurricane and is expected to hit Florida in the middle of this week, threatening the Gulf Coast. The US Security and Environmental Enforcement Agency said oil operators in the Gulf region of the United States shut down 19% of oil production during the storm. Affected by Hurricane Michael, oil operators in the Gulf of Mexico will shut down 11% of natural gas production, and the United States will have 324,190 barrels per day of crude oil production affected.

Platts shipping tracking data shows that Iran's crude oil and gas condensate exports in September were 1.7 million barrels per day, down 11.5% from the previous month. Reuters said Iran's crude oil in the first week of October fell to 1.1 million barrels per day. Earlier reports said that the Trump administration was actively studying exemptions for Iranian oil sanctions, while India preemptively announced its decision to continue importing Iranian crude oil. The president of the Indian oil company said that it will seek to build a payment system for Iranian crude oil, one of the options is to use the Indian rupee. In addition, energy-related coke, chemical-related polypropylene and rubber have also increased by more than 3%, and the market has resonance.

“In the context of inflation expectations and the depreciation of RMB, the entire energy and chemical sector has been funded as a safe haven, and the fundamentals of many varieties have also supported price increases.” A person from an investment company told reporters.


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