Steel mill profit decline，Iron ore futures prices fell

The price of iron ore futures, which has been relatively strong in the previous period, has also recently ushered in a fall. Since last Thursday, the main contract I1901 of iron ore futures has fallen sharply. It once fell to a new low of 459 yuan/ton in more than four months yesterday, and has fallen nearly 13% since this month. Analysts said that recently, steel mill profits have declined rapidly, the active maintenance of the blast furnace has increased, and the ratio of raw materials has also increased the use of low-grade ore, which has affected the total demand of iron ore and the demand structure of minerals. However, with the release of short-term risk sentiment, there is limited room for the iron ore futures price to continue to fall sharply.

Closing price is lower than opening price for 4 consecutive days

On Tuesday, the opening price of I1901 contract of iron ore futures was lower than the closing price on Monday. The I1901 contract was as low as 459 yuan/ton, setting a new low since July 11, closing at 465.5 yuan/ton, down 3.72%. And the closing price of I1901 contract is lower than opening price for 4 consecutive days.

“The pressure mainly comes from the transmission of steel profit shrinkage, the active maintenance of steel mill blast furnaces has increased recently, the new raw material ratio also increases the use of low-grade ore, and at the same time impacts the total demand of iron ore and the demand structure of minerals.” An analyst of Futures company said.

According to the analyst, after the completion of the China Import Expo, the steel mills in Jiangsu Province gradually resumed production. However, due to the rapid decline in steel mill profits recently, steel plants in inland areas such as Shanxi and Shaanxi have increased their active maintenance, and the operating rate of blast furnaces has begun to decline. Mysteel surveyed 163 steel mills showing that the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 77.26%, a decrease of 1.24% from the previous month.

Futures Analyst Zhang Hejia said, as steel prices continue to fall sharply, steel mill profits have fallen sharply, more and more steel mills will shift their blending to medium and low varieties such as Jimblebar fines, Mac fines and SSF，the premium of high-quality mines will go down, make the overall price of iron ore shift down. In addition, with the recovery of Australian mine port logistics, the shipments of mainstream mines in Brazil and Australia will resume growth during the peak season. However, the operating rate of domestic steel mills may decline due to environmental protection, maintenance and other factors. Later fundamental pressures gradually increase, and the pattern of weak iron ore prices is difficult to change.

The pattern of weak iron ore prices is difficult to change

Last week, the total number of iron ore arrivals in the six northern ports of China was 9.161 million tons, a decrease of 1.352 million tons from the previous month; the port inventory increased slightly by 410,000 tons to 14.314 million tons.

Futures analysts said that steel profits fell rapidly, steel mills will control costs by reducing the proportion of scrap, reducing the grade of iron ore in the furnace, and increasing the blast furnace maintenance. The pressure is turned to the raw material end. After the scrap steel price falls, there is not much difference between the cost of hot metal and scrap steel. The coke and iron ore at the end of the hot metal will face a downward pressure.

Zhang Hejia believes that the price of iron ore in the sea float market has fallen sharply in the near future, and the low order may affect future supply. In addition, the current volume of iron ore arrivals and shipments in Brazil and Australia is still at a lower level than in previous years. Although the domestic blast furnace operating rate has declined, it is still at a seasonally high level. With the high inventory consumption of steel mills and the rapid decline in spot prices, some low-inventory steel mills will have the demand for low-priced replenishment, which can stabilize the fundamentals.

For the market outlook, Zhang Hejia said that, at present, the price of iron ore is near the low of the year after deducting the exchange rate factor. With the release of short-term risk sentiment, there will be limited room for prices to continue to fall, which will be shocks under weak prices. However, if the ferrous metal sector continues to weaken, the iron ore is still a product whose price is easy to fall.

钢厂利润下滑 铁矿石期货价格补跌

前期走势一直相对坚挺的铁矿石期货近期也迎来补跌。上周四以来，铁矿石期货主力1901合约接连大幅下挫，昨日一度跌至逾四个月新低459元/吨，本月以来累计跌近13%。分析人士表示，近期，钢厂利润迅速下降，高炉主动检修增多，且原料配比也增加低品矿的使用，冲击了铁矿石总量需求以及矿种需求结构。但随着短期风险情绪释放，铁矿石期价继续大跌空间有限。

期价“四连阴”

周二，铁矿石期货低开低走，1901合约最低至459元/吨，创下7月11日以来新低，收报465.5元/吨，跌3.72%，日线“四连阴”。

“压力主要来自于钢材利润收缩的传导，钢厂高炉主动检修增多，原料配比也增加低品矿的使用，同时冲击铁矿石总量需求以及矿种需求结构。”期货分析师表示。

据该分析师介绍，进博会结束后，江苏地区钢厂逐步复产，但由于近期钢厂利润快速收缩，山西、陕西等内陆地区钢厂主动检修增多，高炉开工率开始下降。Mysteel调研163家钢厂数据显示，高炉产能利用率为77.26%，环比下降1.24%。

期货分析师张贺佳表示，随着成材价格持续大幅下跌，钢厂利润迅速大幅下降，越来越多钢厂将配矿转向金步巴、麦克、超特等中低品种，高品矿溢价将走低，使得铁矿石整体价格重心将下移。此外，随着澳洲矿山港口、物流的恢复，巴西、澳洲主流矿山旺季发运量将恢复性增长，而国内钢厂由于环保、检修等因素开工率可能有所下降，后期基本面压力逐步增大，铁矿石价格弱势难改。

短期弱势格局难改

上周，国内北方六大港口铁矿石到港总量为916.1万吨，环比减少135.2万吨；港口库存小幅增加41万吨至14314万吨。

期货分析师表示，钢材利润快速收缩，钢厂会通过降低废钢比例、降低入炉品位、增加高炉检修等手段控制成本。压力转向原料端，在废钢价格现行下跌后，目前与铁水成本差距不大，后期铁水端的焦炭、铁矿石将面临较大补跌压力。

张贺佳则认为，近期，海漂货市场铁矿石价格大幅下跌，商家订货清淡可能影响未来阶段性供给。此外，目前铁矿石到港量及巴、澳发运量仍处往年较低水平，而国内高炉开工率虽有下滑，但仍处季节性偏高水平。随着钢厂偏高库存的消耗及现货价格快速下跌，部分低库存钢厂将出现一定低价补货需求，可阶段性维稳基本面情绪。

对于后市，张贺佳表示，目前铁矿石价格在扣除汇率因素后已至年内低点附近，随着短期风险情绪释放，继续大跌空间有限，将以弱势盘整为主，但若黑色系继续走弱，则仍为易跌品种。