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China Iron Ore Futures Weekly Report (December 3, 2018)

Fang submitted 2018-12-03 08:01:06

Part A: Review (2018/11/26-2018/11/30)

From November 26, 2018 to November 30, 2018:the closing price of iron ore futures I1905 contract on Friday was 455 yuan, 42 yuan lower than the closing price of the last trading day of last week. The highest price for this week is 494 yuan/ton, and the lowest point is 450 yuan/ton.

This week (2018/11/26-2018/11/30), the total volume of the main contract was 4,096,070 lots, a decrease of 2,511,578 lots from last week. After the close of trading this Friday, the open interest of the main contract was 480,078 lots, a decrease of 106,090 lots from the last trading day of last week.

Notes: The main contract refers to the futures contract with the maximum open interest.

Part B: Market Dynamics

1.Inventory

(1) Port stock of imported iron ore

Under the background of the country's policy of increasing environmental protection

and production limits in various regions, the blast furnace start-up of steel mills has been suppressed. In order to increase the production capacity per unit, steel mills' demand for high-quality mines has gradually increased.

According to the inventory data of 45 ports of Mysteel, as of November 30, the inventory of imported mines at 45 ports was 140.35 million tons, a decrease of 2.79 million tons from last week.

Among them, the Australian mine inventory was 78. 25 million tons, down 1,650,000 tons from last week; the Brazilian mine inventory was 32.3354 million tons, down 538,900 tons from last week.

The stock of lump ore was 15.91 million tons, a decrease of 477,800 tons from last week; the inventory of pellets was 2,467,900 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from last week; the inventory of iron concentrate was 7,619,700 tons, a decrease of 409,200 tons from last week.

(2) Available days of steel mill inventory

As of November 30, the average available days of imported iron ore stocks in domestic

large and medium-sized steel mills was 26 days. 2. Capacity utilization rate

This week, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 76.89%, down 0.70% from the previous week and up 1.86% year-on-year; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 79.31%, up 0.09% from the previous week and up 4.65% from the previous year; Steel mill profit rate is 76.52%,down 10.12% from the previous week; the daily average molten iron output was 2,218,000 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from the previous week and an increase of 130,200 tons year-on-year.

Part C: Transaction Summary

Since March 26 and up to November 30 closing, China iron ore futures’ cumulative trading volumes is 322.75 million lots and the cumulative amount of transaction is 15.35 trillion yuan.

Average daily turnover of 1,909,745 lots (2018/3/26-2018/11/30). Open interest declined steadily, with 2,224,492 lots on March 26th and 1,029,452 lots after the closing of November 30.

Because DCE raised the delivery quality standards for iron ore futures at the end of 2017, the volume and open interest of iron ore futures showed a downward trend.


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