Last week, China Financial Futures Exchange started the whole market simulation trading of 30-year treasury bond futures. If this simulation trading is officially launched soon, the Treasury bond futures market will form 2-year, 5-year, 10-year and 30-year trading varieties, which will greatly enrich the trading strategies of the fixed income market, promote price discovery, hedging demand, and Benefiting the Formation of Yield Curve of Treasury bond.

The failure of commercial banks to enter the bond futures market restarted in 2013, which was mainly due to existing regulations and regulatory factors. The Commercial Bank Law stipulates that commercial banks may engage in the business, but does not include futures business, unless approved by the China Banking Regulatory Commission, they may engage in futures business. For example, in 2008, the original CBRC authorized commercial banks to engage in gold futures business on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. In July 2016, the original CBRC proposed that the bond futures trading system has high leverage and market fluctuations may be amplified in extreme cases. In the early stage, some relevant departments have reservations about commercial banks’ participation in treasury bond futures business. It is suggested that the risks and feasibility of commercial banks' participation in treasury bond futures business be further demonstrated.

As the main participant in the inter-bank bond market, commercial banks use bond futures to hedge interest rate risk is the main purpose of their participation in the bond futures market. However, due to the strong convergence of bond market trading direction and the large position of commercial banks'bond holdings, the short hedging inertia will have a major impact on futures prices, which is also the most worrying issue of previous management. Based on this, the author suggests that regulators should adjust the rules, regulations and risk control of treasury bond futures trading in accordance with special circumstances, such as regulating the maximum exposure of commercial banks to Treasury bond futures hedging, speculative arbitrage warehousing quota, reporting to CFFEX, and so on.

In the previous membership system of CFFEX, securities companies, funds, insurance companies and other institutions must participate in financial futures trading through futures companies. For futures companies, according to the relevant requirements for the net capital of financial institutions, if banks deposit a large amount of margin in futures companies, they will inevitably require futures companies to substantially increase their net capital. For banks, they will also face some management problems from the perspective of capital security and futures position confidentiality. In July 2013, CFFEX announced the revised Regulations on the Management of Members of China Financial Futures Exchange, which added the regulations for clearing members to handle settlement and delivery business for themselves. This means that commercial banks can apply to become clearing members of CFFEX without using the seat channels of futures companies, and realize their own trading and clearing business independently. Therefore, the barriers to membership have been basically eliminated.

At present, the Shanghai Clearing House is actively promoting the standard bond forward transaction of inter-bank cash delivery. However, in the early stage of development, there are few market participants and the liquidity of products is poor, which has limited hedging significance to the interest rate risk of commercial banks. If commercial banks enter the Treasury bond futures market, it will greatly enrich the curve trading strategy. According to the expected changes of short-end, middle-end, long-end and super-long-end forms of the yield curve of Treasury bonds, investors can construct a variety of strategic combinations of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year and 30-year treasury bond futures. In addition, lin addition, we can hedge the interest rate risk of credit debt by matching the futures and cash.

Observed from many aspects, the time for commercial banks to enter the Treasury bond futures market has gradually matured. Therefore, the author appeals that, on the basis of controlling financial risks, we should consider opening commercial banks to the Treasury bond futures market as soon as possible.

中国金融期货交易所上周开始了30年期国债期货的全市场仿真交易，若这项仿真交易不久后正式上线，国债期货市场将形成2年期、5年期、10年期、30年期交易品种，将极大丰富固定收益市场的交易策略，促进价格发现、套期保值及对冲需求，利于国债收益率曲线的形成。

商业银行未能进入2013年重启的国债期货市场，主要是受限于现有的制度法规和监管因素。在《商业银行法》规定商业银行可从事的业务中，未包括期货业务，除非经国务院银行业监督管理机构批准，方可从事期货业务。比如，原银监会在2008年曾特批商业银行在上海期货交易所从事黄金期货业务。2016年7月，原银监会在答复政协委员提案时提出，由于国债期货交易实行保证金制度，杠杆较高，在极端情况下可能放大市场波动。前期推进过程中，已有相关部门对商业银行参与国债期货业务持保留态度，建议进一步论证其风险和可行性。

作为银行间债券市场最主要的参与主体，商业银行利用国债期货对冲利率风险是其参与国债期货市场的主要目的。但是，由于债市交易方向的趋同性很强，商业银行债券持仓规模大，在做空对冲惯性下将会对期货价格构成重大冲击，这也是此前管理层最为担忧的问题。基于此，笔者建议监管机构在国债期货交易规则、监管条例、风险控制方面依据特殊情形相应调整，如规范商业银行国债期货套期保值最大敞口、投机套利建仓额度、向中金所汇报持仓情况等。

在此前的中金所会员体系中，证券公司、基金、保险公司等机构必须以期货公司客户名义参与金融期货交易。对期货公司而言，根据对金融机构净资本的相关要求，如果银行在期货公司存入大量保证金，必然要求期货公司大幅提高净资本。对银行而言，从资金安全和期货仓位保密角度考虑，也会面临一些管理难题。2013年7月，中金所公布了经过修订的《中国金融期货交易所会员管理办法（征求意见稿）》，增加了结算会员为其自身办理结算、交割业务的规定。这意味着商业银行可不用期货公司的席位通道就能申请成为中金所结算会员，独立实现自身交易与结算业务。因此，会员资格的障碍已基本排除。

目前，上海清算所正在积极推进银行间现金交割的标准债券远期交易，但在发展初期市场参与机构较少，产品流动性较差，对商业银行的利率风险对冲意义很有限。若商业银行进入国债期货市场，将极大丰富曲线交易策略。投资者可根据对国债收益率曲线短端、中端、长端、超长端形态的预期变化，构建2年期、5年期、10年期、30年期国债期货的多种策略组合。另外，还可从期限匹配出发，与信用债相配合，对冲信用债的利率风险。

从多个方面观察，商业银行进入国债期货市场的时机已渐趋成熟。笔者因此在此呼吁，在达到金融风险可控的基础上，请考虑尽快开放商业银行进入国债期货市场。