熊牛的转折点要到了吗？

Is the turning point of the bull market coming?

有业内人士称，2440点有望成为中国股市第五轮牛市起点，那么A股变盘点来了吗？对此羽翰资产基金经理李新江认为，2440点是不是中国股市第五轮牛市起点现在就此下结论没有任何依据，我们认为还没有到变盘点，但是不排除2440点是阶段性底部，目前中美贸易战有所缓和，但是国内的经济环境依然不乐观。

Some insiders said that 2440 is expected to be the starting point of the fifth bull market in China's stock market. So has the A-share change come? Li Xinjiang, manager of Yuhan Asset Fund, believes that there is no basis for us to conclude whether 2440 is the starting point of the fifth bull market in China's stock market. We believe that we have not reached a change in the stock market, but we do not exclude 2440 as the stage bottom. At present, the Sino-US trade war has eased, but the domestic economic environment is still not optimistic.

高溪资产合伙人陈继豪在接受私募排排网采访时表示，目前看显然2440点被大家公认为底部，不管是政策底还是市场底，进入2019年，资金在回流A股是不争的事实。尤其是北上资金在1月份累计净流入超过300亿元，这似乎在向市场传递一个信号，那就是外资在抄A股的底。但自开通陆股通以来，外资持续在净流入A股，几年来累计净流入超过7000亿，这些资金应当是大部分处于浮亏状态。如果仅仅依据外资的动向就做投资决定显然是草率的，外资的资金运作一般是长期持有，典型的左侧交易，这和资金性质有关。对于2019年整体的国内经济环境和外部环境，还是存在很多不确定性因素。从经济运行周期角度看2019年可能是缓跌筑底之年，牛市的启动显然不具备条件。

Chen Jihao, Gaoxi Asset Partner, said in an interview with the Simuwang that at present, it is clear that 2440 points are generally recognized as the bottom, whether at the end of policy or market, in 2019, it is an indisputable fact that funds are flowing back into A shares. In particular, the accumulated net inflows of capital from Beijing and Shanghai in January exceeded 30 billion yuan, which seems to send a signal to the market that foreign capital is copying the bottom of A shares. However, since the opening of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the net inflow of foreign capital into A shares has continued, with a cumulative net inflow of more than 700 billion over the past few years. Most of these funds should be in a state of floating deficit. It is obviously rash to make investment decisions only on the basis of the trend of foreign capital. The operation of foreign capital is generally long-term holding, typical left-side transactions, which is related to the nature of capital. There are still many uncertainties about the overall domestic and external environment in 2019. From the point of view of the economic cycle, 2019 may be the year when the slump bottomed out, and the start of the bull market is obviously not qualified.

巨泽投资董事长马澄认为，上证指数在1月4日创出2440点低点后，在券商、煤炭、钢铁、保险、银行和5G通讯等题材股的带动下，持续反弹三周，市场温度明显回暖。在技术上2240点与前期的2449点形成典型的小双底形态，加上近三个月来，国家层面出台了众多包括降准、修订回购细则、引进长线资金入市等激活资本市场的政策、措施，同时，当前A股整全估值处于28年以来的底部区间。所以，我们坚定地这里是未来牛市的山脚下，坚定地看好未来三年的A股表现。

Ma Cheng, chairman of Juze Investment, believes that after the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index hit a 2440 low on January 4, driven by securities firms, coal, iron and steel, insurance, banks and 5G telecommunications, it has rebounded for three weeks and the market temperature has obviously warmed up. In technology, 2240 points and 2449 points formed a typical small double bottom pattern. In addition, in the past three months, many policies and measures have been introduced at the national level to activate the capital market, including lowering the benchmark, revising the rules of repurchase and introducing long-term capital into the market. At the same time, the current full valuation of A shares is in the bottom range of 28 years. Therefore, we firmly believe that this is the foot of the future bull market, and firmly look forward to the performance of A shares in the next three years.

聚瀚投资总经理李佳亮向私募排排网介绍，短期行情无法判断，但现在不论是从历史纵向估值比，还是横向全球主要市场对比估值，A股港股都处在底部区域。对比银行理财，现在股息率高于4%并且未来五年能维持增长的公司不难找，所以现在是值得满仓的历史性机会。

Li Jialiang, general manager of Juhan Investment, introduced to the Simuwang that the short-term market can not be judged, but now, whether from the historical vertical valuation ratio or the horizontal comparative valuation of major global markets, A-share and Hong Kong shares are in the bottom region. Comparing with bank financing, it is not difficult to find companies with dividend rate higher than 4% and can maintain growth in the next five years, so it is a historic opportunity to fill warehouses.