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The investment opportunities of Year 2019

Fang submitted 2019-02-12 14:29:45

In 2019, Qiu Guolu of Gaoyi Asset said that he has been focusing on three areas for a long time: financial real estate, brand consumption and advanced manufacturing. Now, it is the financial industry that has more opportunities. And the market is likely to enter a new round of asset shortage, high-quality assets will be scarce again.


Qiu Guolu continues to say that the credibility of some corporate teams in China's financial industry is still worthy of respect. This year's cuts is one of the most reasonable options. In the process of cuts, banks as an industry will still benefit. Many economic measures must rely on the financial system as the blood system, and only by stabilizing the financial system can the whole economy be stabilized. Pessimistic pricing has been reflected in the valuation of bank shares. Some banks do not have much bad debts and are conservative banks in the industry. However, the corresponding Hong Kong shares have a net market value of 0.5 times, which is lower than the net market value of a leading bank in 2008, when the financial crisis occurred once in a century in the United States. Think carefully, valuation has reflected pessimistic pricing, is a financial crisis-style pricing, but the financial crisis did not occur. Although it has been more than half a year, the excess revenue has been reflected, but there is still room. You should reduce your expectations appropriately. It can give you a steady annual profit growth of more than 10% and a single-digit valuation. In fact, it is quite rare.

From the beginning of the Spring Festival, weak incremental funds appeared in the market, and the game logic changed. Tianhe believes that short-term investment opportunities are mainly determined: 1. New long-term beneficiary funds enter the market, long-term value growth stocks with long logic, such as compulsory consumption, finance and so on. 2. Regional theme, referring to Xiongan New Area, and laying emphasis on the beneficiaries of the overall planning of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, such as port, warehousing, wharf, cement and other infrastructure related targets; 3. Industrial theme, focusing on the beneficiaries related to science and technology support industry, hard science and technology, new infrastructure, such as new drug research and development, chips, 5G/industrial Internet/Internet of Things and so on.


Yuen Lesheng believes that the performance declines continuously due to the impairment of goodwill and other factors, but it mainly comes from small-capitalized stocks with low attention, which has limited impact on the index. On the other hand, Beijing and Shanghai continue to maintain a high enthusiasm to increase their A-share holdings, with a net inflow of 60.7 billion yuan in January, a record high, and the consumer sector remains the most popular, with relevant stocks rising more than 15% in January. Stimulated by policy, banks and non-bank finance have also risen strongly in recent weeks. Banks and insurance have led the industry sector for many times. Although the overall index performance of the securities company sector is flat, the internal differentiation is relatively large, benefiting from the continuous advancement of Science and technology innovation board, leading securities companies are in a leading position in the sector.

From the view of market point, the market risks are controllable. The major factors that led to the rapid decline in the market last year, have eased down such as Sino-US trade friction, equity pledge risk and the sharp increase in operating pressure of private enterprises. At the end of the month, the centralized release of goodwill risk of listed companies sounded a warning bell for the market, and in the future it will also help to promote the institutional and professional value investment. Taiyan Asset Judgment, the capital-driven valuation recovery market in Beijing and Shanghai will continue. Professional investors will pay more attention to the quality of the balance sheets and cash flow statements of listed companies. Super blue chips will also get valuation premium.


Shi Feng assets said that before the Spring Festival, the A-share Bonus Pack market will close, and the future market is expected to be lightly loaded. After the festival, more attention should be paid to stable performance, benefiting from policies, and the industry prosperity.


In the future, Park Shi's investment judgment: the probability of big opportunities is low, but the structural opportunities of high-quality stocks exist, especially those of high-quality blue-chip stocks which are not affected by macro-economy and undervalued by the market. Of course, At present, the market often appears sharply declining performance of stocks, which has restrained investors ‘risk preference to a certain extent. How to reduce the investment risk? we must have a very professional stock selection ability.


关于2019年投资机会,高毅资产邱国鹭表示长期一直关注三个领域:金融地产、品牌消费和先进制造,现在比较有机会的还是金融业。并且市场有可能会进入新一轮资产荒,优质资产会再次稀缺。

邱国鹭继续表示,中国的金融业有一些企业团队的靠谱程度还是很值得尊敬的。今年降准是最合理的可选项之一,降准过程中,银行作为行业还是会受益的。很多经济措施必须要依靠金融体系作为血脉系统,得先稳金融才能稳整个经济。银行股估值中已经体现了悲观的定价,有些银行坏帐也不多,而且还算是行业中比较保守的银行,但对应的港股才0.5倍市净率,比美国2008年百年一遇的金融危机时某龙头银行的估值1.3倍市净率还低。仔细想想,估值已经体现出悲观的定价,是金融危机式的定价,但金融危机并没有发生。虽然已经过去半年多,超额收益已经在体现,但空间还有。大家应适当降低预期,能给你稳定的每年百分之十几的利润增长、估值在个位数,其实已经挺难得的。

天和投资认为贯穿全年有两条投资主线:贸易谈判结果、预期下行的宏观经济与宏观政策的对冲会。其中贸易谈判结果决定增量资金是否来,来多少;宏观政策主线决定未来市场的贝塔机会多大,在哪里。

2月伊始到春节后,市场出现弱增量资金,博弈逻辑发生变化,天和投资认为短期比较确定的投资机会主要有:1、新增受益长线资金入场、具有长逻辑的价值成长股,如必选消费、大金融等。2、区域主题,参照雄安新区,重点布局粤港澳大湾区整体规划出台的受益标的,如港口、仓储、码头、水泥等基础设施互联互通相关标的;3、产业主题,关注与科创板支持产业、硬科技类、新基建、补短板相关的标的,如新药研发、芯片、5G/工业互联网/物联网等。

源乐晟认为,受商誉减值等因素影响业绩雷不断,但基本来自关注度不高的小市值股,对指数影响有限。另一方面,北上资金继续保持较高热情增持A股,一月份净流入607亿元创新高,消费龙头依然最受青睐,相关个股一月份涨幅均达到15%以上。受政策刺激,银行及非银金融近几周也在强势抬头,银行、保险多次领涨行业板块;券商板块虽然整体指数表现平平,但内里分化较大,受益于科创板的不断推进,头部券商表现在板块内处于遥遥领先的位置。

泰旸资产表示,从市场角度来看,目前市场风险整体可控,去年导致市场出现快速下跌的主要因素-中美贸易摩擦、股权质押风险以及民营企业经营压力陡增等突出问题已经较为缓和,月底上市公司商誉风险的集中释放为市场敲响了警钟,未来也有助于推动机构化、专业化的价值投资浪潮。 泰旸资产判断,北上资金推动的估值修复行情将会继续,专业投资者将更加关注上市公司资产负债表以及现金流量表的质量,超级蓝筹也将因此获得估值溢价。

石锋资产表示,春节前A股红包行情收官,未来市场有望轻装上阵,节后更应关注业绩稳定、受益于政策面、行业景气度提高的板块。

展望后市, 朴石投资判断整体趋势性大机会概率较低,但优质股票的结构性机会却是存在的,尤其是那些不受宏观经济影响的被市场低估的优质蓝筹股的结构性机会。当然,目前市场频发业绩暴雷个股,在一定程度上抑制了投资者的风险偏好。如何避免踩雷风险,就必须具备非常专业的选股能力。

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