The Trend of PTA Returns to Rationality after Moving Up and Down
2019-02-23 06:32 Sources: China Securities Journal
After the Spring Festival, PTA price fluctuations have intensified obviously. The main contract price of PTA futures has dropped rapidly from above 6700, and has gained support after falling to around 6200. It is now back to the 6400-6500 shock range in late January. In the short-term, after the release of the short-selling sentiment, the decline will be suspended under the support of cost. In the later period, the PTA trend is still subject to the trend of crude oil prices and the demand for downstream polyester. The risk of short-selling lies comes from no resonance between the cost and the supply-demand side.
In terms of the short-term, PTA after the Spring Festival is contrary to the trend of crude oil recovery, which is mainly caused by the increasing influences of short funds. In the fall of PTA, the top 20 positions of PTA were turned over, and the clearance of 05 was increased, while the position of 09 clearances was reduced. The driver behind the expectations comes from the reverse operation of the 5-9 spread. The data shows that on February 13, the 5-9 spread was around 300. As the PTA price fell, the 5-9 spread narrowed to below 200. After the spread narrowed, the arbitrage funds left the market, the PTA net position returned to the net pattern, the PTA trend also stabilized, and the 5-9 spread fluctuated in the 210-220 range.
however, the impact of funds is relative short-term. With the reduction of 5-9 anti-set space, the space for PTA unilateral decline will be affected by factors such as cost profit and fundamentals. As a result of short-term cost and demand support, PTA unilateral downside Space is temporarily limited.
As the aspects of cost, the recent crude oil price continued to rise, and the PX was also firmer. Under the influence of the sharp drop in PTA prices, the recent PTA spot processing fee and disk processing fee both fell back to 600 yuan / ton, lower than the average processing fee of 800 yuan / ton since 2019. It is generally believed when the processing fee fall to around RMB 500/ton, the cost support will appear, and the profit need to be repaired. However, for medium to long-term, the delivery of PX capacity will be one of the main short-selling factors at the cost end. At the beginning of March, another 800,000-tonne plant of Tenglong Aromatics was planned to start driving. The new PX plant of Hengli Petrochemical is also expected to start a 2.25 million-ton production line in the middle-to-late March. By then, the domestic PX production capacity will reach 16.88 million tons / year, and if it produces full effective capacity for 54.99 million tons of polyester, corresponding to PX demand is about 30.8 million tons. The increase in domestic PX supply will reduce the demand for imports, while the control of PX prices by foreign mainstream PX suppliers will be challenged, and the price of PX will be lowered. In addition, the processing fee of the current PX-naphtha section is close to 600 USD/ton. The reasonable price difference of 300-350 USD/ton, the PX price also has a large downward adjustment. After the industry is reallocated, the room for the PTA price can be reduced. In addition, the trend of crude oil prices will remain uncertain factors, the key is to concerned about whether oil prices and PX price movements continue to resonate, if the trend deviates, to some extent, the firm of the oil price may reduce the degree of PX weakens.
In terms of supply-demand side, the improvement of post-holiday polyester demand is the main driving force for PTA staged supply and demand. At present, the polyester product has performed better, and the polyester load rebounded to over 80% in the first week after the holiday. Although the first quarter is the traditional accumulation stage of PTA, the current total inventory of PTA is 1.22 million tons. During the Spring Festival, the accumulated inventory is about 260,000 tons higher than the same period of last year, but the total inventory is still lower than the level of the same period in the past three years. The pressure is less than the same period. However, the recovery of downstream demand is not always smooth. At present, the rework of the weaving industry is lagging behind the polyester link, and it will generally have to wait until after the Lantern Festival. In addition, due to the large number of stockings before the festival, the inventory is at the level of 25-30 days, which will also delay the improvement of short-term demand. Caused by these factors, although the recovery of polyester starts is ideal, the inventory of polyester products is also rising. If the demand for weaving is started later than the end of February, the staged benefits of demand will also be weakened. Observation data can track the weaving operation rate, polyester production and sales rate, also the trend of polyester stocks.

In general, after the short period short-selling funds leave the market, before the supply-demand pattern has not reached a new level, the probability of PTA price maintaining range fluctuation is greater. Upside support still requires the resonance of cost and demand. On the one hand, when the profit of PTA is repaired, the cost boost needs raw material price to reach a new level; on the other hand, the demand expansion requires the recovery of terminal demand and weaving. The negative factor is still the no resonance between the cost and supply-demand side.

PTA走势大起大落后重回理性
2019-02-23 06:32 来源：中国证券报
春节之后，PTA价格波动明显加剧，PTA期货主力合约价格从6700上方快速下挫，跌至6200附近后获得支撑，目前重回1月下旬6400-6500震荡区间。短期看，偏空情绪释放后，在成本的支撑下，跌势暂止。后期，PTA走势仍受制于原油价格走势以及下游聚酯需求的表现，偏空风险则在于成本和供需面无法共振。
短期来看，春节后的PTA走势与原油回升的走势相背离，而这主要是受空头资金的影响增强所致。PTA此轮下挫中，PTA前20位持仓由多转空，其中05净空持仓大增，而09净空持仓减少。预期背后的驱动来自5-9价差的反套操作。数据显示，2月13日，5-9价差在300附近，随着PTA价格的下跌，5-9价差缩小至200以下。价差收窄后，套利资金离场，PTA净持仓重回净多格局，PTA走势也随之企稳，5-9价差在210-220区间波动。
但是，资金的影响主要是偏短期，随着5-9反套空间的减少，PTA单边下跌的空间将受成本利润以及基本面等因素的影响，因为短期成本和需求支撑，PTA单边下行空间暂时有限。
成本方面，近期原油价格延续回升格局，PX也较为坚挺。在PTA价格大幅下挫的影响下，近日PTA现货加工费和盘面加工费双双回落至600元/吨以下，低于2019年以来800元/吨的现货平均加工费。而一般认为，加工费跌至500元/吨附近，成本支撑将显现，利润存修复需求。然而，中长期看PX产能的投放将是成本端的主要偏空因素之一。3月初，腾龙芳烃另80万吨装置计划开车，恒力石化PX新装置也有望在3月中下旬启动一条225万吨生产线。届时国内PX产能将达1688万吨/年左右，而目前聚酯5499万吨有效产能若满负荷生产，对应PX需求量约3080万吨。国内PX供应量的提升，将令进口需求量减少，而国外主流PX供应商对PX价格的把控力将受到挑战，PX价格有下调倾向。加上目前PX-石脑油环节的加工费接近600美元/吨，以300-350美元/吨的合理价差看，PX价格也有较大的下调空间。在行业重新分配后，留给PTA价格的可下调空间将增加。此外，原油价格的走势仍将是不确定影响因素，关注油价与PX价格走势是否持续共振，若走势背离，即油价的坚挺或减弱PX走弱的程度。
供需方面，节后聚酯需求的改善是PTA阶段性供需由空转多的主要驱动。而目前聚酯环节的复工表现较好，节后第一周聚酯负荷就回升至80%以上。虽然一季度是PTA传统的累库阶段，但目前PTA总库存在122万吨，春节期间累库约26万吨高于去年同期，但总库存量仍低于近3年同期水平，库存的绝对压力要小于同期水平。然而，下游需求的恢复也并非一帆风顺。目前，织造行业的复工较聚酯环节滞后，一般要等到元宵节之后才会有明显起色。此外，由于织造环节节前备货较多，库存量在25-30天的水平，这也会令短期需求改善的效果滞后。由于这些因素，也导致虽然聚酯开工恢复较理想，但聚酯品库存也在同步走高。若织造环节的需求启动迟于2月底，则需求的阶段性利好也将弱化。观察数据可以跟踪织造开工率、聚酯产销率、聚酯库存的走势等。
总体而言，短期偏空资金离场后，供需格局未上新台阶前，PTA价格维持区间震荡的概率较大。上行支撑，仍需成本和需求的共振，一方面，当PTA利润修复后，成本的提振需原料价格迈上新台阶；另一方面，需求利好的扩大需终端需求和织造的恢复。利空因素，仍在于成本和供需面无法共振。