How should investors make money in the aspect of oil and gas assets?
2019-02-23 09:37:10 Source: China Security Journal

Recently, whatever the crude oil market is rising fast, NYMEX crude oil futures, Brent oil futures have hit a new high. As the most important commodity in the modern economy, crude oil is extremely versatile. Which industries or commodities are expected to benefit from this？How should investors lay out oil and gas assets? To talk about this issue, we have invited Jin Xiao, senior crude oil analyst, Yao Wei, chief crude oil researcher and Sui Xiaoying, researcher of futures crude oil.

Both domestic and foreign oil price are rising

China Security Journal: Since the end of December in 2018, domestic and foreign crude oil price have continued to climb, what are the driving factors behind them?

Jin Xiao: Around December 25th, it is the boundary between crude oil price movements. From this date, crude oil has bottomed out. As of now, Brent crude oil price have accumulative increased by more than 30%. There are three main factors driven behind：
First, the overall risk appetite of the market has turned from extreme pessimism to optimism, which can be seen from the price trend of the oil price and other risk assets, especially for US stocks; Second, the rapid rise in oil prices itself stimulates downstream refineries and traders to replenish stock units, which further promotes oil price increases, in other words, the change of the prices also shaping fundamentals; Third, reduction of the Saudi Arabia’s production capacity, US sanctions against Venezuela and Libya’ supply instability have restores the condition of excess supply in oil market from supply level. Although the US shale oil supply has not stopped growing, the short term supply has not changed much. However, OPEC’s supply has dropped significantly, which has led to an obvious tightening of overall supply.

Sui Xiaoying: there are both macro-level factors and fundamental factors of supply-demand behind the rising price. In terms of the macro perspective, since the end of 2018, the three major US stock indexes have rebounded continuously after hitting the bottom, with an increase about 20%, which has boosted the trend of crude oil to some extent. From the aspects of supply-demand, both production and export volume of crude oil in Venezuela has been declining sharply in past two years. The recent increase in US sanctions make market panic, and the difference between light and heavy oil has also shrunk significantly. In addition, the production reduction agreement turned into an implantation phase when entering 2019. From the current market situation, Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers maintain a high implementation rate of production cuts, and it is expected that the future cuts will keep high. Furthermore, after the continuing decrease if oil price in the fourth quarter of 2018, the US oil drilling data also began to weaken, but it is a question that whether it will form a slowdown in output in the future.

Yao Xi: From the fundamentals point of view, Saudi Arabia took the lead in reducing production significantly to provide confidence for the market bulls. On the one hand, the crude oil production of Saudi exceeded 11 million barrels per day in November 2018, but it is reduced by 1 million barrels per day in just two months, and the Saudi oi minister promised to reduce production to 9.8 million barrels per day by March. This behavior has greatly reduced the concerns about oversupply oil of market. On the other hand, the change in Fed’s attitude has also reversed the market’s risk aversion. Since the FOMC meeting in December 2018, the Fed’s main officials have repeatedly stated in public stated in public that they will ‘maintain patience’ in raising interest rates, and said that if the market is in crisis, it will use all means to protect. The various statements of Fed officials reversed the global market risk sentiment. The market’s forecasting probability of the Fed stopping interest rate hikes and even cutting interest rates in 2019n rose sharply, funds begun to flow into risky assets, which in turn boosted oil prices.

What are the guidelines for the ‘wind vane’?

China Securities Journal: As the crude oil strengthened, the CRB index covering a variety of commodities also fluctuated. As the ‘leading’ of bulk commodities, what is the significance of this round of oil price rebound on the trend of bulk commodities?

Sui Xiaoying: As the leader of bulk commodities, crude oil will inevitably lead the trend of other commodities, especially guide industrial products. In the process of continuous rebound of crude oil prices in the beginning of this year, energy chemical products and some non-ferrous metal varieties maintain strong synchronization with crude oil. The industrial products including crude oil and non-ferrous metals have a strong linkage with each other. It is even more self-evident of the linkage between crude oil and its downstream energy and chemical products. Since early this year, whatever the futures varieties of gasoline and diesel in the international market, or asphalt, fuel oil and PTA in the domestic market, all keep pace with crude oil.

Jin Xiao: The current round of crude oil price recovery is mainly concentrated in the downstream of crude oil, and the transmission to non-industrial commodity prices is relatively limited. If crude oil and commodities that are not in the same industrial chain rise at the same time, then this type of rise is more likely to be driven by demand.

Yao Wei: This round of crude oil price increase is not a separate event, but a shift in risk sentiment in global financial markets. Fed’s attitude turned to ‘pigeon’, global funds began a ‘carnival’, and a large amount of funds poured into emerging markets and risky assets, causing the stock and commodity markets to rise in the same direction. As the ‘leader’ of commodities, the crude oil market is more closely related to the financial market, and it can reflect the changes in market sentiment more sensitively than other commodities, thus playing a ‘wind vane’ role in the trend of commodities.


How should investors make money?

China Securities Journal: How to treat the trend of crude oil price in the market?
Sui Xiaoying: At present, the crude oil market is still in a favorable atmosphere. The rebound of US stocks, the tight supply of heavy oil caused by US sanctions in Venezuela, the high production cut rate of oil-producing countries and the slowdown of US oil drilling data are supporting the oil market. However, the current bullish factors have basically been cashed in the oil price. If there are no more favorable factors, the oil price will face greater resistance, and the technical indicators also show overbought. It does not rule out the staged fallback adjustment, but shrinks at the supply end. Under the boost, it is still bullish on the performance of medium-term oil prices.

Jin Xiao: After the turbulent year of 2018, it is expected that the oil price volatility will return to normal in 2019, and the price will seek a balance between demand growth and shale oil production growth. Although there is still a large amount of oil capacity to be put into production in 2019, the capacity injection cannot fundamentally solve the problem of the downward growth of demand for end products. As shale oil production efficiency increases significantly, it is expected that the problem of production bottlenecks in the second half of 2019 will be greatly alleviated. But what really inhibits the growth of shale oil production is the long-term low oil price. Therefore, what OPEC should do is to increase production, not to cut production. Before the shale oil production growth rate is significantly suppressed, it is impossible to place too much expectation on OPEC production reduction. In the long run, OPEC will lose its crude oil pricing power, because the swing producer (mobile oil producing country) is no longer Saudi, but shale oil, the big pattern will not change.

Yao Wei: From a technical point of view, the current WTI crude oil price is close to the upper $60/barrel. At the same time, from the WTI options market, a large number of call options are concentrated at $58/barrel and $60/barrel. Oil prices will face greater upward pressures in the 58-60 US dollars’ / barrel area. From a fundamental point of view, there are not too many unexpected events in the oil market, and the impact of the market on Saudi Arabia, Russia's production cuts, and supply disruptions in Venezuela and Iran has already reacted to prices. Although the international trade situation has eased, it is all open information to the market that has little impact on prices. From the demand side, the current market fundamentals are relatively weak, the US refinery overhaul has increased crude oil inventories for five weeks, indicating a decline in demand, and the US crude oil market has also entered the stage of seasonal accumulation. Therefore, both the technical and fundamental aspects lack sufficient power to support WTI oil prices to break through $60/barrel. However, it is worth noting that once the price effectively breaks through $60/barrel, the stop loss of the option contract on the market is likely to cause the oil price to rise further and enter the overbought condition.

China Securities Journal: How do investors arrange investment opportunities for related oil and gas assets?
Sui Xiaoying: The crude oil-related derivatives investment that investors can participate in, including crude oil futures, crude oil options, related stocks, and crude oil ETF funds. Due to the different risks of various types of assets, the investment principle is different. Among them, the risk of stocks and funds is relatively low, which is suitable for stable investors; while the assets such as crude oil futures and options have higher professionalism and risk, which is more suitable for relatively professional investors. In the long run, the price of crude oil and related stocks such as stocks and bonds are not highly correlated. It can effectively disperse the risks brought by assets such as stocks and bonds in the global asset allocation.

Jin Xiao: From the investment strategy, investors are advised to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities of crude oil futures and related products. Arbitrage opportunities mainly include arbitrage opportunities between regions, such as domestic arbitrage opportunities between crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures, crude oil and downstream product processing profits, domestic crude oil futures and asphalt futures or fuel oil futures, and domestic crude oil futures itself. After the Spring Festival, our main recommended strategy is to bullish the domestic crude oil futures and bearish asphalt futures, because the market has been too optimistic about the infrastructure expectations, there are risks of decline. In addition, due to weather conditions, the release of asphalt demand in East China and North China may be seriously delayed, and asphalt supply should not have major problems in the first quarter. The focus of the market game is between cost and demand. If demand is not strong, even if the price of heavy oil is strong, it is difficult to support the price of asphalt.

Yao Wei: From a long-term perspective, it is currently in the ascendant stage of global oil and gas investment, the opportunities of the upstream drilling services sector could be noticed.

原油红火搭台油气资产戏份几何 投资者该如何掘金？
2019-02-23 09:37:10 来源：中国证券报

（原标题：原油红火搭台油气资产戏份几何 投资者该如何掘金？）
近期，原油市场犹如坐上“上涨快车”，NYMEX原油期货、布伦特原油期货、国内原油期货纷纷创下阶段新高。作为现代经济中最主要的大宗商品，原油用途极为广泛。哪些行业或大宗商品有望受益于此？投资者该如何布局油气资产？本期邀请资深原油分析师金晓、首席原油研究员姚曦、期货原油研究员隋晓影一起探讨。
内外盘油价联袂走高
中国证券报：2018年12月底以来，内外盘原油期货价格持续攀升，背后的驱动因素有哪些？
金晓：2018年12月25日前后是原油价格走势分界岭。自2018年12月25日起，原油开始触底反弹，截至目前，布伦特原油价格累计涨幅超30%。驱动这波油价上涨的因素主要在三方面：其一，市场整体风险偏好出现转折，从极度悲观转向乐观，这一点上可以从油价与其他风险资产价格走势上看出，尤其是与美股之间具有较强的同步性；其二，油价快速上涨本身刺激下游炼厂和贸易商进行补库存，此举又进一步促进油价上涨，也就是说，价格变化本身也在塑造基本面变化；其三，沙特减产、美国对委内瑞拉制裁和利比亚供应的不稳定性等，从供应层面修复了此前油市供给过剩的局面。尽管美国页岩油供应量并未停止增长，但短期供应量环比变化不大。而OPEC的供应量出现较明显的下降，因此导致整体供应出现明显收紧。
隋晓影：这波油价上涨背后既有宏观层面因素，也有供需基本面因素。从宏观层面上看，2018年底以来，美国三大股指触底后连续反弹，涨幅达20%左右，在一定程度上提振了原油走势。从供需层面上看，美国宣布加大对委内瑞拉的制裁直接导致近期国际市场对于重油供应紧张的担忧加剧。实际上，在近两年以来，委内瑞拉原油产量及出口量已在大幅下滑，近期美国制裁的加大令市场恐慌，轻重油价差也出现大幅收缩。另外，进入2019年，减产协议进入实施阶段。从当前市场情况来看，沙特等主要产油国维持较高的减产执行率，且预期未来减产幅度仍较高。除此之外，在2018年四季度油价持续大跌后，美国的石油钻井数据也开始走软，但是否会在未来形成产量增长趋势放缓态势有待观察。
姚曦：从基本面来看，沙特带头大幅度减产为市场多头提供信心支撑。沙特原油产量在2018年11月曾超1100万桶/天，但在短短两个月时间里就减少100万桶/天，且沙特石油部长承诺到3月会将产量降至980万桶/天。沙特在减产上的举动极大地降低了市场对油市供应过剩的担忧。另一方面，美联储态度的转变也扭转了市场的避险情绪。自2018年12月FOMC会议以来，美联储主要官员多次在公开场合表示将对加息“保持耐心”，并表示若市场出现危机将动用一切手段保护市场。美联储官员的种种表态扭转了全球市场风险情绪，市场对美联储在2019年停止加息、甚至降息的预测概率大幅上升，资金也开始持续流入风险资产，进而助推油价上涨。
“风向标”有何指引
中国证券报：在原油走强之际，涵盖多种大宗商品的CRB指数也出现震荡上涨。作为大宗商品的“龙头”，此轮油价回升对大宗商品走势有何“风向标”意义？
隋晓影：原油作为大宗商品的龙头，其走势对其他大宗商品走势必然会形成引领作用，尤其是对工业品的指引更加明显。在年初以来原油价格持续反弹过程中，能源化工品与部分有色金属品种与原油保持较强的同步性。原油与有色金属都属于工业品，走势联动性较强；而原油与其下游能源化工品种的联动性更是不言而喻，自年初以来，包括国际市场上的汽油、柴油等期货品种以及国内市场的沥青、燃料油、PTA等期货品种均与原油保持同步上涨态势。
金晓：本轮原油价格回升对于其他大宗商品的传导作用主要集中在原油的下游领域，对非产业链商品价格的传导作用相对有限。若原油与非同一产业链的商品同时上涨，那么该类型的上涨由需求驱动的可能性更高。
姚曦：此轮原油价格上涨不是一个单独的事件，而是全球金融市场风险情绪的转向。在美联储态度转“鸽”之后，全球资金开始了一场“狂欢”，大量资金涌入新兴市场和风险资产，使得股票、商品市场出现同向上涨。而作为大宗商品的“领头羊”，原油市场因为与金融市场的联系更为紧密，相对于其他大宗商品能更敏感地反映市场情绪变化，从而对大宗商品走势起到“风向标”作用。
投资者该如何掘金

中国证券报：如何看待后市原油价格走势？
隋晓影：当前来看，原油市场仍处利多氛围，美股反弹、美国制裁委内瑞拉引发的重油供应紧张、产油国维持较高的减产执行率以及美国石油钻井数据放缓等因素均在支撑油市。不过，当前利多因素基本已在油价中兑现，如果没有更多利好因素出现，油价进一步上涨将面临较大阻力，同时技术指标也显示超买，不排除出现阶段性回落调整，但在供应端收缩的提振下，仍看涨中期油价表现。
金晓：经历2018年波动大年之后，预计2019年油价波动率将回归常态，价格将在需求增速和页岩油产量增速之间寻求平衡。尽管2019年仍有大量炼油产能投放，但产能投放并不能从根本上解决终端产品需求增速下行问题。随着页岩油产出效率显著提升，预计2019年下半年产量受到基础设施瓶颈约束的问题将大幅缓解。但真正能够抑制页岩油产量增速的是长期低迷的油价。因此，OPEC应该做的是增产，而不是减产。在页岩油产量增速被明显抑制之前，不可对OPEC+减产寄予太多期望。长期来看，OPEC将失去原油定价能力，因为swing producer(机动产油国)不再是沙特，而是页岩油，这种大的格局不会改变。
姚曦：从技术面上看，目前WTI原油价格已接近上方60美元/桶压力位，同时从WTI期权市场上看，大量的看涨期权持仓集中在58美元/桶、60美元/桶一线，因此油价在58-60美元/桶一带将面临较大上涨压力。从基本面上看，油市供应端并未出现太多出乎市场预料的事件，而市场对沙特、俄罗斯减产以及委内瑞拉、伊朗的供应中断事件的影响已在价格上有所反应。虽然国际贸易局势出现缓和，但都属于市场公开信息，对价格影响不大。从需求端来看，目前市场基本面相对正在走弱，美国炼厂检修已使得原油库存连增五周，表明需求出现下滑，美国原油市场也进入季节性累库阶段。因此，技术面与基本面均缺乏足够动力支撑WTI油价突破60美元/桶。不过，值得注意的是，一旦价格有效突破60美元/桶，那么市场上期权合约的止损很可能造成油价进一步上涨，从而进入超买状态。
中国证券报：投资者该如何布局相关油气资产标的投资机会？
隋晓影：投资者可参与的原油相关衍生品投资主要包括：原油期货、原油期权、相关股票以及原油ETF基金等。由于各类资产风险不同，因此投资原理也不同。其中，股票、基金类风险相对较低，适合稳健型投资者；而原油期货、期权等资产专业性及风险度较高，更加适合相对专业的投资者。从长期来看，原油价格与相关的股票、债券等资产价格相关性并不高，其在全球大类资产配置中能够有效分散股票、债券等资产所带来的风险。
金晓：从投资策略上，建议投资者关注原油期货与相关产品的套利机会。套利机会主要有地区之间价差套利机会，例如国内原油期货与布伦特原油期货、原油与下游产品加工利润之间的套利机会、国内原油期货与沥青期货或燃料油期货以及国内原油期货本身的跨期套利机会。春节过后，我们主要推荐的策略就是看多国内原油期货看空沥青期货，因为市场此前对基建的预期过于乐观，存在下修风险。此外，华东和华北地区因为天气原因，沥青需求的释放可能会被严重推迟，而沥青供给在一季度应该不存在较大问题。市场博弈的焦点在成本与需求之间，如果需求不振，即便重油价格再强，也难以支撑沥青价格走升。
姚曦：从长周期看，目前正处全球油气投资的上升阶段，可关注上游钻井服务板块机会。