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A group of busy "runners" appeared on commodity markets before the tax cut

Fang submitted 2019-03-26 13:02:43

Recently, the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Taxation and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued policies to deepen VAT reform, marking the beginning of VAT tax reduction. Just before the tax cut on April 1st, a group of busy "runners" appeared on commodity markets. They either hoarded goods or arbitraged them, stirring up a pool of spring water for short-term supply and causing short-term distortions in commodity prices.

With the new VAT policy coming to the ground, everything will return to calm. But under the calm lake, commodity pricing pattern will be reshaped, and those with strong bargaining power will win the world. However, in any case, the reduction of VAT tax rate is one of the important measures to stimulate the economy. In the long run, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages for the commodity market.


Trade enterprises are busy with arbitrage

Following the further deployment of tax reduction and fee reduction at the executive meeting of the State Council, on March 21, the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Taxation and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued the Announcement on Deepening the Policy of VAT Reform, which will begin on April 1 and enter the operational stage.

The announcement made it clear that since April 1, taxpayers in general have engaged in VAT taxable sales or imported goods, and the original 16% tax rate will be adjusted to 13%, while the original 10% tax rate will be adjusted to 9%. When taxpayers purchase agricultural products, the original deduction rate of 10% is applied, and the deduction rate is adjusted to 9%. Taxpayers who purchase agricultural products for the production or commissioned processing of goods with a 13% tax rate shall calculate the input tax according to a 10% deduction rate.

But there is still a period of time before April 1, during which many enterprises began to "rush", some hoarding, some arbitrage, busy and happy.

"As far as we know, many production and trading enterprises in the rubber industry chain choose to hoard goods now in order to get 16% of the input tax. If the tax rate is reduced to 13% and the sales tax to 13% in the future, the tax difference of 3% can be obtained. Gao Linlin, a futures researcher at a securities company, said.

Gao Linlin pointed out that for downstream enterprises, the manufacturing tax rate fell from 16% to 13%. For the tire and automobile industry, the most direct impact is to reduce tax burden and increase corporate profits, which helps to enhance the ability of enterprises to expand reproduction. Taking the automobile industry as an example, according to incomplete statistics, the current VAT tax rate applicable to automobiles is 16%. Taking the listed automobile enterprises as samples, the scale of tax reduction in this round reaches 18.43 billion yuan, and the proportion of tax reduction in net profit reaches 13.3%.

This phenomenon is not isolated, according to industry sources, this short-term hoarding, arbitrage phenomenon is also common in other non-ferrous metals, ferrous metals, cotton, sugar, chemical industry. For example, a trader in the non-ferrous industry said, "We are now grappling with purchasing and waiting to sell when VAT falls in April to make a profit margin."

Zhang Ping, an analyst at a futures company, said that because the non-ferrous metal trading company does not involve production and consumption, the change of VAT tax rate has a greater impact on its trade activities. For example, buying ingots in March and selling ingots in April, regardless of price differences and other transaction fees, can lead to a yield of 4.58%.

For example, in the methanol industry, a futures company analyst disclosed that "the 3% reduction in VAT expectations has started to prompt methanol traders to stock up and purchase some paper goods in late March and late April."

For example, in the steel industry, Huang Wentao, an analyst at a securities company, said: "The reduction of steel VAT from 16% to 13% will be implemented on April 1, which will have a significant impact on the short-term industry, because most of the threaded steel and hot coils are tax-containing prices, and it is expected that they will have a significant impact on steel trading from now to the end of March."

An insider said: "At present, most enterprises operate by not receiving tickets in the last few days before the end of March, crediting the receipt of invoices and receiving new invoices after the formal implementation of documents."


Temporary Change of Commodity Pricing Logic

Hoarding behavior in some industries has distorted short-term market supply and affected commodity prices, which has become the dominant logic of short-term fluctuations in futures prices.

For example, in the case of threaded steel, Zhao Yiming, an analyst at a futures company, said that due to the anticipated reduction of VAT on April 1, traders were hoarding goods and selling them sparingly, short-term supply was distorted, and short-term prices of threaded steel were expected to fluctuate strongly.

However, after the new VAT policy comes into being, commodity prices will be re-priced. Gao Linlin said that VAT belongs to turnover tax, and the change of VAT tax rate paid by enterprises can be transmitted to price through tax burden transfer. However, due to market competition, price stickiness and the bargaining power of upstream and downstream industries, there may be two situations in which the prices of goods and services produced by enterprises are subject to the new VAT tax rate: one is that the sales price of products and services with tax does not change; the other is that the sales price of products and services with tax changes according to the new applicable tax rate.

"From the point of view of the whole rubber industry chain, due to the weak bargaining power in the upstream, the second situation may occur after the VAT rate is lowered." Gao Linlin believes that whether the tax rate of imported rubber is lowered from 16% to 13%, or the domestic rubber is lowered from 10% to 9%, the rigid cost of rubber will be lowered. It is expected that the price in the distant months will be depressed after the VAT is lowered.

"Because commodity prices are tax-laden prices, tax reductions will make commodities re-priced without considering other factors." Huang Liqiang, director of a futures company’s investment consulting department, said.

Huang Li-qiang calculates an account for China Securities Journal reporter: Take methanol as an example, assuming that the price of methanol is 3000 yuan/ton when the value-added tax is 16%, when the value-added tax is reduced to 13%, the theoretical price of methanol is 3000/(1+16%)* (1+13%)=2922.41 yuan/ton, and the theoretical price of methanol is reduced (3000-2922.41)/3000=2.59%. This is also an important reason for the recent weakening of the price of industrial products.

From the perspective of internal and external arbitrage, a securities derivatives research institute said that the reduction of VAT is conducive to reducing import costs. According to the current model (for example, copper), the VAT tax rate is reduced by 3%, and the import cost is reduced by about 1300 yuan. This will widen the gap between internal and external prices, facilitate the import of non-ferrous metals, and open up more room for business. After the implementation of the VAT reduction, the pressure of non-ferrous metal inventory transfer will increase. If the bonded area inventory flow into the domestic market accelerates, it will cause some pressure on the growth of domestic supply and short the internal price.


The Importance of Bargaining Ability

Although in the short run, commodity prices have fallen year-on-year due to the "burden reduction" of enterprises, in the medium and long term, it is generally believed that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.

Gao Linlin pointed out that although in the short term, the cost space of rubber enterprises has been compressed, in the medium and long term, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. Firstly, for downstream tire and automobile enterprises, tax reduction is expected to reduce their tax burden significantly, increase their profits, stimulate their vitality in the medium and long term, enhance their competitiveness and feedback the upstream; secondly, tax reduction can also play a role in stimulating the economy and expanding demand at the macro level.

"From the point of view of the degree of impact, the impact of the reduction of VAT tax rate on the cost side of commodities is mainly considered from the concentration of commodity industry and the bargaining power of the industrial chain. With the process of "clearing" from active to passive upstream production since 2012, the industry pattern has changed greatly. For black products, some non-ferrous products and chemical products which are on the supply side of concentration, the rise of concentration increases the structural voice of the industry, thus weakening the reaction of raw material cost in price. Xu Wenyu, director of macro strategy research at a futures company Research Institute, said.

Xu Wenyu pointed out that the impact of tax cuts on commodities would be marginal. Value-added tax relief is mainly aimed at the manufacturing sector in the middle reaches of the economy, reducing the old cost burden in the process of economic restructuring and enhancing the new innovation vitality. As for commodities in raw material industry, the direct impact lies in the decline of the forward curve due to the lower cost; the indirect impact lies in the positive impact on the dimension of "supply-demand-inventory" of commodities with the improvement of the demand of midstream manufacturing industry, which is still limited in the process of economic structural transformation.

According to the Institute of Derivatives of the a Securities Exchange, except for crude oil futures, domestic commodity futures are all priced with VAT. In theory, VAT is reduced by 3 percentage points, and the price of commodity tax should be reduced by 2.6% (calculated according to 1-(1+13%)/(1+16%) simultaneously. In fact, it is uncertain whether the upstream enterprises reduce the factory price synchronously according to the range of tax reduction. To a greater extent, it is affected by the bargaining power of upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. That is to say, the extent of the impact of commodity futures prices by the value-added tax downward events also depends on their supply and demand fundamentals. In addition, the reduction of VAT tax rate by 3 percentage points is actually one of the important measures to stimulate the economy. The market's expectations of better domestic demand have increased, which has boosted the commodity market.


近日,财政部、税务总局、海关总署三部门联合发布深化增值税改革有关政策,标志着增值税降税大幕即将拉开。而就在4月1日降税“开幕”之前,商品江湖上出现了一群忙碌的“抢跑族”,他们或囤货、或套利,搅动了短期供应的一池春水,让商品价格出现了短时的扭曲。
随着增值税新政落地,一切又将回归平静。但平静的湖水下面,商品定价格局将被重塑,议价能力强者得天下。但无论如何,增值税税率调降,都是刺激经济的重要举措之一,对于商品市场长远来看利大于弊。

贸易企业套利忙
在国务院常务会议对减税降费作出进一步部署之后,3月21日,财政部、税务总局、海关总署联合发布《关于深化增值税改革有关政策的公告》,即将于4月1日拉开大幕的增值税降率进入到操作环节。
公告明确,自4月1日起,一般纳税人发生增值税应税销售行为或者进口货物,原适用16%税率的,税率调整为13%;原适用10%税率的,税率调整为9%。纳税人购进农产品,原适用10%扣除率的,扣除率调整为9%。纳税人购进用于生产或者委托加工13%税率货物的农产品,按照10%的扣除率计算进项税额。
但距离4月1日还有一段时间,这段时间内不少企业开始“抢跑”,有的囤货、有的套利,忙得不亦乐乎。
“据我们了解,不少橡胶产业链上的生产及贸易企业,选择现在囤货,以获得16%的进项税额。若未来卖出时税率下调至13%,销项税额变为13%,则可以获得3%的税差。”研究员高琳琳表示。
高琳琳指出,对于下游企业来说都坐上了制造业税率16%降至13%的顺风车。对于轮胎、汽车行业来说,最直接的影响就是降低税负、增加企业利润,有助于增强企业扩大再生产的能力。以汽车行业为例,据不完全统计,目前汽车适用的增值税税率为16%,以上市车企为样本,本轮减税规模达到184.3亿元,减税规模占净利润比重达到13.3%。
这种现象并非孤立,据业内人士透露,这种短期囤货、套利的现象在其他有色金属、黑色金属、棉花、白糖、化工行业也普遍存在。例如,一位有色行业贸易商表示:“我们现在抓紧采购,等着4月增值税降下来的时候卖出去,赚个利差。”
分析师张平表示,由于有色金属贸易公司不涉及生产消费,增值税税率变动对其贸易活动影响较大。比如,3月买锭,而到4月份卖锭,不考虑价差变动以及其他交易手续费,仅仅税差就能导致收益率达到4.58%。
又如甲醇行业,期货分析师透露:“增值税下调3%的预期开始促使甲醇贸易商囤货,部分采购3月下旬及4月下旬纸货。”
再如钢铁行业,分析师黄文涛表示:“钢材增值税从16%下降至13%将于4月1日实施,这对于短期行业将有重大影响,因为螺纹钢和热卷多数都是含税价,预计从现在到3月底会对钢材交易有重大影响。”
一位业内人士表示:“目前多数企业的操作方法是3月底之前最后几天不收进项票,把手头收到的发票认证抵扣,待文件正式执行后再收新发票。”

商品定价逻辑暂换手
部分行业的囤货行为已经扭曲了短期的市场供应,对商品价格也形成影响,成为期货价格短期波动的主导逻辑。
例如,螺纹钢方面,分析师赵一鸣表示,受4月1日调降增值税预期影响,贸易商囤货惜售,短期供给受到扭曲,预计短期螺纹钢价格将偏强震荡。
不过,在增值税新政落地之后,商品价格将会被重新定价。高琳琳表示,增值税属于流转税,企业缴纳的增值税税率变化可以通过税负转嫁方式传导至价格上。但因市场竞争、价格黏性以及行业上下游议价能力等原因,企业所生产的商品和服务价格在行业适用新的增值税税率后,可能出现两种情况:一是产品和服务的含税销售价格不变;二是产品和服务的含税销售价格根据新适用的税率进行变化。
“从整个橡胶产业链来看,由于上游议价能力偏弱,在增值税率下调后大概率会发生第二种情况。”高琳琳认为,无论是进口胶税率从16%下调至13%,还是国产胶从10%下调至9%,都会使橡胶的刚性成本下移,预计增值税实施下调后,远月价格或受到打压。
“由于商品价格是含税价格,因此在不考虑其他因素的情况下,降税会使商品重新定价。”投资咨询部主管黄李强表示。
黄李强给中国证券报记者算了一笔账:以甲醇为例,在增值税为16%时,假设甲醇价格为3000元/吨,当增值税下调至13%,甲醇的理论价格为3000/(1+16%)*(1+13%)=2922.41元/吨,甲醇的理论价格下降(3000-2922.41)/3000=2.59%,这也是近期工业品价格走弱的重要原因。
从内外盘套利角度说,某衍生品研究院表示,增值税下调有利于降低进口成本,以当前模型测算(以铜为例),增值税税率调降3%,进口成本下降约1300多元,这将令内外价差扩大,利于有色金属进口,交易上也将为正套打开更大的空间。增值税下调正式执行之后,有色金属库存转移压力将增大,如果保税区库存流入国内市场加速,这将给国内供给增长造成一定压力,利空内盘期价。

议价能力重要性凸显
虽然从短期来看,商品价格因企业“减负”而同比回落,但从中长期而言,业内人士普遍认为,利大于弊。
高琳琳指出,虽然短期来看,橡胶企业成本空间被压缩,但从中长期来看,利大于弊。第一,对于下游轮胎、汽车企业来说,减税预计可以使其税负显著降低,企业利润将有所抬升,中长期或能激发企业活力,增强企业竞争力反哺上游;第二,减税降负对于整个宏观层面上来说,也能起到刺激经济、扩大需求的作用。
“从影响强弱程度来看,增值税税率下调对于商品成本端的冲击主要考虑从商品产业集中度和产业链的议价能力。随着2012年开始的上游产能从主动到被动的‘出清’过程,行业格局发生了较大变化。对于在供给侧集中度上行的黑色系、部分有色和能化类产品而言,集中度的上升料增加行业的结构性话语权,从而削弱原材料成本在价格中的反应。”研究院宏观策略研究总监徐闻宇表示。
徐闻宇指出,减税对商品的影响将是边际上的。增值税减免主要针对的是经济中游制造业环节,降低在经济结构转型中旧的成本负担以及提升新的创新活力。作为原材料行业的商品而言,直接影响在于远期曲线由于成本下移带来的回落;间接影响在于随着中游制造业需求的改善,带来对于商品“供给-需求-库存”维度的有利影响,在经济结构性转型过程中,这一影响依然有限。
某衍生品研究院表示,除原油期货外,国内商品期货均为含增值税计价,理论上增值税下调3个百分点,商品含税价应同步降低约2.6%(按照1-(1+13%)/(1+16%)计算得出)。然而实际上,上游企业是否按照减税幅度同步降低出厂价是不确定的,更大程度上是受到产业链上下游议价能力的影响,即商品期货价格受增值税下调事件的影响程度还取决于各自的供需基本面。此外,增值税税率调低3个百分点,实际是刺激经济的重要举措之一,市场对于内需向好的预期增强,这对于商品市场有提振作用。

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