Recently, at the International Conference on Derivatives Market and Risk Management of Tongji University in 2019, Yang Jian, Research Director of JPMorgan Chase Commodity Research Center of the University of Colorado and Professor of JPMorgan Chase Lifelong Lecture, said that China's crude oil futures market is more effective in international comparison.
Professor Yang Jian's team compared and analyzed all the trading data of four major global crude oil futures markets, namely, WTI Futures, Brent Crude Oil Futures in London, Shanghai Crude Oil Futures and Dubai Oman Crude Oil Futures from March 26 to August 31, 2018, and found the trading volume to holding ratio of China Crude Oil Futures was high. At present, China's crude oil futures trading volume has leapt to the third place in the world.
Another feature of China's crude oil futures is the high activity and frequency of night trading, but the low morning and noon trading. Yang Jian suggested that in order to give full play to the greater pricing power of China's crude oil futures, the focus should be on the day trading. At the same time, we should distinguish different types of institutional investors and formulate policies to introduce long-term institutional investors.
Yang Jian said that the liquidity of the first China crude oil futures contract has been basically comparable with the major international crude oil futures contracts, which laid a good foundation for the introduction of options and other derivatives on this basis. Indicators show that the response of China's crude oil market to the news fundamentals of U.S. crude oil inventory can be compared with that of the U.S. market in both magnitude and length, which indicates that the development of China's crude oil futures market is quite mature.
【媒体看期市】中国原油期货市场有效性好
近日,在“同济大学衍生品市场与风险管理国际会议2019”上,美国科罗拉多大学摩根大通商品研究中心研究主任和摩根大通终身讲席教授杨坚表示,从国际比较看,中国原油期货市场有效性好。
杨坚教授团队将全球4大原油期货市场,即美国WTI(西德州轻质原油)期货、伦敦布伦特原油期货、上海原油期货、迪拜阿曼原油期货从2018年3月26日至8月31日的所有交易数据比较分析后,发现中国原油期货的交易量和持仓量比率高。目前,中国原油期货交易量已跃居全球第三。
中国原油期货另一个特征是,夜盘的交易活跃程度高、频率高,但是早盘和午盘比较低。杨坚建议,要发挥中国原油期货更大的定价权,重点要在日盘上下功夫。同时要区分不同类型的机构投资者,制定政策引入长期机构投资者。
杨坚表示,第一个中国原油期货合约的流动性已经与国际主要原油期货合约基本可比,为在此基础上推出期权等其他衍生品奠定了较好基础。指标表明,中国原油市场对美国原油库存消息基本面的反应,无论是幅度和长度都可以跟美国市场可比,这说明中国原油期货市场发展已相当成熟。