In recent years, commodity prices have fluctuated dramatically under the influence of changes in the international political and economic environment. At present, international commodity prices are generally priced in US dollars. Domestic enterprises are facing the risk of exchange rate fluctuation while bearing the risk of price fluctuation. Especially for energy-based enterprises, in recent years, with the degree of marketization of domestic related industries and the improvement of the dependence of domestic crude oil on foreign countries, the days become more and more difficult. Under such circumstances, the effective use of relevant futures can be said to have become a necessary condition for domestic energy enterprises to avoid market risks and survive successfully in the market. Domestic crude oil futures have been listed for more than a year, and the overall operation is good. The market function has been initially brought into play. Domestic energy-based enterprises have more options in choosing risk management tools.
At present, how about the application of crude oil futures in private refineries and what can be optimized in the future? Recently, in the second training session of the first National Training Course on Advanced Management of Finance and Commodity Futures in Petrochemical Industry co-sponsored by PetroChina (6.690, 0.03, 0.45%) Chemical Industry Federation and Beijing last time, the participants had a thorough discussion.
Opening to the outside world has been steadily promoted, and the effectiveness of the crude oil futures market has initially emerged.
According to the reporter of Futures Daily, since the domestic crude oil futures were listed on March 26, 2018, there has been a good trend of "smooth trading, smooth settlement, smooth delivery, strict supervision, controllable risk, positive public opinion and preliminary function".
Especially the market size of crude oil futures, it is known that less than one month after the listing, its trading volume has exceeded Dubai crude oil futures. Three months later, the trading scale of main contracts has become the largest crude oil futures market in Asia and the Middle East, after the US WTI and European Brent crude oil futures, and its price is even higher. Many large oil-related enterprises at home and abroad have been used as the benchmark of spot trade pricing. They have been awarded the Best New Listed Derivatives Contract Award in Asia in 2018 by American Futures Options World magazine.
Yang Jian, research director of JPMorgan Chase Commodity Research Center at the University of Colorado and professor of JPMorgan Chase's life-long lecture, imported all trading data in four global crude oil futures markets (WTI, Brent, Shanghai crude oil futures and Oman crude oil futures in Dubai) for a certain period of time (March 29-August 31, 2018). Through analysis and comparison, it is found that domestic crude oil futures not only improve their liquidity at an alarming rate, but also perform well in the overall market operation.
It is reported that, academically, the small difference between buying and selling price is recognized as the best indicator of good market liquidity. The study finds that with the passage of time, the liquidity of domestic crude oil futures contracts has been improving, especially at the end of sampling time, the liquidity of domestic crude oil futures has been basically the same as that of the main Brent contracts at that time. It can be said that the improvement rate of domestic crude oil futures is astonishing. In fact, the average trading scale of domestic crude oil futures has reached 3-4 times of that of overseas markets in the five-month period of sampling, day or night trading. In view of this, Yang Jian believes that domestic crude oil futures have good liquidity, which will lay a good foundation for the future launch of options and other derivatives.
In addition, relevant data show that the market effectiveness of domestic crude oil futures is also apparent. Take the domestic crude oil futures market's reaction to US crude oil stocks as an example, the data reflected by the domestic crude oil futures market can be compared with the US market, and the volatility and continuity of transactions have exceeded the Brent market. This shows that China's crude oil futures from a fundamental point of view, even just launched soon, the development is quite mature.
In addition, it is still the relevant institutions that are sensitive to the fundamentals, "so when a market reacts to the fundamentals, even if there are some speculative transactions, it shows that they are not pure speculative transactions".
From a statistical point of view, it is found that the price changes of domestic crude oil futures play a significant positive stretching role in the price changes of the two major international crude oil futures. "This further proves that domestic crude oil futures indeed operate effectively."
In addition, after more than a year of development, the internationalization of crude oil futures is also deepening. It is understood that at present (as of July 9), domestic crude oil futures have been filed by 53 overseas intermediaries from Hong Kong, China, Singapore, the United Kingdom, Korea, Japan and the Netherlands, and now there are more than 100 overseas intermediaries from 9 countries such as the United Kingdom, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macao of China. Customers have completed opening accounts. In addition, the daily average turnover and the proportion of foreign customers'positions are also increasing after more than a year of development. Believe that with the further development of domestic crude oil futures, the number and degree of foreign investors' participation will continue to rise.
This will also help to consolidate the position of RMB in the international crude oil market. With more and more foreign participants participating in domestic crude oil futures trading, the position of RMB in the international crude oil market will become more and more solid.

原油期货市场有效性逐步提升

产业企业期待进一步丰富下游期货品种
近年来，受国际政治经济环境变化影响，大宗商品价格“波涛汹涌”。目前，国际大宗商品价格普遍以美元定价，国内相关生产企业在承担价格波动风险的同时，还面临着汇率的波动风险。特别是能化企业，近年来随着国内相关产业市场化程度以及国内原油对外依存度的提升，日子越发艰难。在这样的情况下，有效使用相关期货品种，可以说已成为国内能化企业规避市场风险，成功在市场上存活下去的必备条件。国内原油期货上市一年多以来，整体运行良好，市场功能初步发挥，国内能化企业在风险管理工具的选择上有了更多可选项。
目前，原油期货在民营炼厂方面的运用情况如何，未来又有哪些可以优化的地方？近日，在由中国石油化学工业联合会和上期所于北京联合举办的第一届全国石化行业金融与商品期货高级管理培训班的第二期培训中，与会人员进行了深入的探讨。
对外开放稳步推进?原油期货市场有效性初步显现
据期货日报记者了解，境内原油期货自2018年3月26日上市至今，总体呈现出“交易平稳、结算流畅、交割顺利、监查严格、风险可控、舆论正面，功能初步显现”的良好态势。
特别是原油期货的市场规模，据了解，早在上市后不到1个月，其成交就已经超过了迪拜原油期货，3个月以后，主力合约的成交规模已经仅次于美国WTI和欧洲Brent原油期货，成为亚洲及中东地区最大的原油期货市场，其价格更是已被多家国内外大型涉油企业作为现货贸易定价基准，并被《美国期货期权世界》杂志授予“2018年度亚洲地区最佳新上市衍生品合约奖”。
美国科罗拉多大学摩根大通商品研究中心研究主任、摩根大通终身讲席教授杨坚在对全球四大原油期货市场（美国WTI、伦敦Brent、上海原油期货和迪拜阿曼原油期货）一定时间内（即2018年3月29日——8月31日）的所有交易数据进行分析对比后发现，境内原油期货不仅在流动性方面改进速度惊人，在市场运作方面也整体表现良好。
据介绍，在学术上，买入卖出价差小是公认最优的市场流动性好的指标。而研究发现，随着时间的流逝，境内原油期货合约的流动性不断改进，特别是到了抽样时间的末期，境内原油期货的流动性已经与当时Brent主力合约的流动性基本持平。可以说，境内原油期货的改进速度惊人，事实上，在取样的5个月期间，无论日盘还是夜盘，境内原油期货交易时段内的平均成交规模都已达到境外市场的3—4倍。鉴于此，杨坚认为，境内原油期货已有较好的流动性，这将为未来推出期权等其他衍生品奠定良好的基础。
此外，相关数据表明，境内原油期货的市场有效性也有所显现。以境内原油期货市场对美国原油库存消息基本面的反映为例，无论是弧度和长度，境内原油期货反映出来的数据都可以和美国市场相比，交易的波动性和连续性已超过Brent市场。对此，杨坚认为，这说明中国原油期货从基本面的角度衡量，即使刚推出不久，发展也相当成熟。
另外，考虑对基本面比较敏感的仍是相关机构，“因此当一个市场对基本面有反应时，即使会存在一些投机性的交易，也说明其中并非是纯投机性交易”。
从统计角度来说，他发现，境内原油期货的价格变动对两大国际原油期货的价格变化起到了显著的正向拉伸作用。“这进一步证明了境内原油期货确实是有效地运行。”杨坚说。
除此之外，经过一年多的发展，原油期货的国际化程度也在不断加深。据了解，目前（截至7月9日），境内原油期货已经完成了来自中国香港以及新加坡、英国、韩国、日本、荷兰53家境外中介机构的备案，现已有来自英国、澳大利亚、新加坡等9个国家及我国香港、台湾和澳门地区的一百余家境外客户完成了开户。加之，境外客户的日均成交和持仓量占比经过一年多的发展也在不断提升，相信随着境内原油期货的进一步发展，境外投资者参与数量和程度会继续上行。
“而这也将有助于巩固人民币在国际原油市场上的地位。”普氏亚洲石油市场编辑总监JontyRushforth说。在他看来，随着越来越多的境外参与者参与到境内原油期货的交易，人民币在国际原油市场上的地位将越来越牢固。