FangQuant › Commodities Futures

Ore Concentrates may enter iron ore futures delivery

Fang submitted 2019-07-19 15:45:10

On Tuesday, DCE issued a circular saying that starting from the trading on July 18, 2019 (the after-hours trading on July 17), the trading fee rate of iron ore futures shall be adjusted to 0.1‰ of the trading turnover. Specifically, the intraday trading fee rate and non-intraday trading fee rate of iron ore futures contract 1909 shall be adjusted to 0.25‰ and 0.1‰ of the trading turnover respectively; and the intraday trading fee rate and non-intraday trading fee rate of iron ore futures contract 2001 shall be adjusted to 0.15‰ and 0.1‰ of the trading turnover respectively.
After a brief adjustment last week, as of 15:00 on July 16, iron ore futures contract 1909 closed at 905 yuan/ton, up 2.38%. Futures Daily reporters learned that yesterday's rise in iron ore prices was related to the news circulated in the Wechat circle that " JMBF lowered iron content", which prompted bullish sentiment in the market. However, people concerned said that the news should not be over-interpreted. On the contrary, in the context of the existing delivery rules, the situation that ore concentrates may enter futures delivery beyond expectations should be paid more attention according to the high-price and favorable rules.
According to reports, JMBF is a medium and high-grade mine launched by BHP in 2015, which is currently more common in trade circulation. Since July 16, BHP Billiton has readjusted the typical values of some varieties, notifying individual enterprises to reduce the grade of JMBF iron from more than 60% to 59.5%. In this regard, some people are concerned that if JMBF into delivery may be affected, affecting some of the delivery sources. The market forecast that the futures convenience delivery products will be adjusted from JMBF to PB Fines. Driven by the above news, iron ore futures prices rose on Monday night and main contracts closed at 905 yuan/ton on Tuesday.
To this end, the journalist to the professionals to verify. After understanding, in fact, the effect of adjusting iron grade of JMBF on futures price and delivery is very limited. At present, iron ore futures are available for delivery. According to statistics, the output of JMBF in 2018 is about 50 million tons, and the import of JMBF in China is about 45 million tons, accounting for 4-5% of the total import of iron ore in the whole year. The impact of its quality adjustment on the spot market should not be magnified.
In terms of stocks, at present, the stocks of JMBF in the port are less than 4% of the total stocks in the port. As of July 9, the stock of JMBF in Qingdao, Rizhao, Caofeidian and other major delivery ports was about 2.3 million tons, accounting for 8-9% of the stock of high-grade fine ore. During the same period, the port stock of PB powder with similar quality was about 4.5 million tons, accounting for 16%-17% of the high-grade fine ore stock. The quantity available for delivery was much larger than that of JMBF, and the stock of other types of high-grade fine ore was also sufficient. It is also understood that the weekly arrival of iron ore imports in the first week of July increased to 17.647 million tons, an increase of 1.096 million tons annually, which is higher than the average annual value of 6.68 million tons in June. Among them, the arrival volume of Brazilian mines reached 3.06 million tons, which has increased for four consecutive weeks. As the supply of imported minerals resumes, the amount of spot available for trading and delivery becomes more abundant.
Some market participants said that even if the futures convenience products were adjusted to 61.5% of PB Fines, its impact on futures prices was not significant. It is understood that on July 16, the market price of PB powder in Rizhao Port was 893 yuan/wet ton. After deducting moisture and converting futures standard products, the market price was about 986 yuan/dry ton.
On that day, the price of JMBF in Rizhao Port was 868 yuan per wet ton, which was about 968 yuan per dry ton after deducting moisture and converting futures standards. The difference between them was about 18 yuan per dry ton. The clearing price of iron ore futures contract 1909 has risen in recent two days, and the impact of the above information on the market has been fully released on the market.
In addition, the recent rise in the price of imported iron ore has also boosted the demand for concentrates. According to Hegang Mining Company, since the iron ore futures listed in 2013, Hegang Mining has been one of the designated warehouses of the exchange. At present, Hegang Concentrate has a certain amount of warehouse receipts. Each index meets the futures delivery standard and can be used for delivery. Relevant institutions estimate that with the rise of iron ore prices, concentrate delivery has made profits, and its delivery volume will increase, which will restrain the price of iron ore to a certain extent.

As the star variety of domestic commodity market this year, iron ore market has attracted wide attention. Relevant responsible persons of major commercial offices said that the exchange will continue to strengthen market supervision, prevent and control risks, and crack down on illegal and irregular acts to maintain the normal order and smooth operation of the market. At the same time, the exchange is studying the feasibility of the iron ore brand delivery system. The deliverable brand will still include JMBF. In addition, some representative iron ore varieties with less than 60% iron content will be included, and domestic iron ore such as refined powder will be retained to further expand the deliverable volume. Through the above measures, we can further adapt to the changes in spot trade and meet the needs of enterprises for hedging.


精矿可能超预期进入铁矿石期货交割
本周二,大商所发布通知称,自2019年7月18日交易时(即7月17日夜盘交易小节时)起,铁矿石期货品种交易手续费标准调整为成交金额的万分之1。其中,铁矿石期货1909合约的日内交易手续费标准调整为成交金额的万分之2.5,非日内交易手续费标准为成交金额的万分之1。铁矿石期货2001合约的日内交易手续费标准调整为成交金额的万分之1.5,非日内交易手续费标准为成交金额的万分之1。
经过上周短暂调整之后,截至7月16日15时收盘,铁矿石期货1909合约报收905元/吨,涨幅2.38%。期货日报记者了解到,昨日铁矿石价格上涨,与流传于微信圈一则“金布巴粉下调铁含量”的消息有关,一时激起市场的看涨情绪。但相关人士表示,这则消息不应过度解读,相反,在现有交割规则的背景下,根据价高有利的规则,精矿可能超预期进入期货交割的情况更应被重视。
据介绍,金布巴粉是必和必拓公司(BHP)2015年起推出的、目前贸易流通较为常见的中高品矿。7月16日起,必和必拓公司重新调整了部分品种的典型值,通知个别企业将金布巴粉铁品位从60%以上降至59.5%。对此,部分人士担忧如果金布巴粉进入交割可能受影响,影响部分交割货源。市场预测期货便利交割品将由金布巴粉调整为PB粉。受上述消息推动,周一夜盘铁矿石期货价格上涨、周二主力合约收于905元/吨。
为此,记者向专业人士进行了求证。经了解,实际上此次金布巴粉调整铁品位对期货价格和交割的影响极为有限,目前铁矿石期货可供交割品充足。据统计,2018年金布巴粉产量约5000万吨,我国金布巴粉进口量约4500万吨,约占全年铁矿石总进口量的4%—5%,其品质调整对期现货市场影响不应被放大。
库存方面,目前金布巴粉在港口上的库存不到港口总库存的4%。截至7月9日,青岛、日照、曹妃甸等主要交割港口的金布巴粉库存约230万吨,约占高品粉矿库存的8%—9%。同期,品质与其接近的PB粉的港口库存约450万吨,约占高品粉矿库存的16%—17%,可供交割量远多于金布巴粉,其他类型高品粉矿库存同样充足。另据了解,7月首周进口铁矿石的当周到港量增至1764.7万吨,环比增加109.6万吨,高出6月周度均值106.8万吨。其中,巴西矿到港量304.6万吨,已经连续四周增加。随着进口矿供给量恢复,可供交易和交割的现货量更加充足。
有市场人士表示,即使期货便利交割品调整为61.5%的PB粉,其对期货价格的影响也不大。据了解,7月16日,日照港PB粉市场价893元/湿吨,扣除水分、换算期货标准品后的价格约986元/干吨。
当日,日照港金布巴粉868元/湿吨,扣除水分、换算期货标准品后的价格约968元/干吨,二者相差约18元/干吨。近两日铁矿石期货1909合约结算价已经上涨,上述信息对市场的影响已在盘面上充分释放。
此外,近期进口铁矿石价格的上涨也提振了精矿的需求。据河钢矿业公司相关人士介绍,自2013年铁矿石期货上市以来,河钢矿业一直是交易所指定交割厂库之一,目前河钢精矿已有一定的仓单量,各项指标符合期货交割标准,可供交割使用。相关机构测算,随着铁矿石价格上涨,精矿交割已有利润,其交割量将会增加,这将在一定程度上抑制铁矿石价格。
作为今年国内大宗商品市场的明星品种,铁矿石市场的一举一动广受关注。大商所相关负责人表示,交易所将继续强化市场一线监管,防控风险,并打击违法违规行为,维护市场正常秩序和平稳运行。同时,交易所正在研究铁矿石品牌交割制度的可行性,可交割品牌中仍将包括金布巴粉,此外还将纳入60%铁含量以下、具有代表性的部分铁矿石品种,并保留精粉等国产铁矿石,以此进一步扩大可供交割量。通过上述措施,进一步适应现货贸易变化,满足企业避险需求。


Currently no Comments.