On July 5, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange issued a notice on requesting public comments on Standard TSR 20 Futures Contract and related implementing rules. After years of painstaking research and careful preparation, the TSR 20 futures finally reached the final sprint stage of the listing. Natural rubber futures have come across a lot of ups and downs, and the listing of TSR 20 futures will be a milestone in the history of the rubber futures market.
The development of natural rubber futures is a process of growth in change. In March 1993, the Shanghai Chemical Trading Market, one of the predecessors of the SHFE, launched the first natural rubber futures contract in China. In November of the same year, the Hainan China Merchants Futures Exchange also launched natural rubber futures contracts. In 1997, the R708 incident resulted in the close of rubber futures contracts in the Hainan China Merchants Futures Exchange, and RU contracts in the SHFE became the only domestic rubber futures contracts left.
In terms of the underlying delivery commodity, the earliest underlying delivery commodity is SCR 5, which is also called the No. 5 rubber. Later, because the national standard separated different raw materials and producing route of the SCR 5, the rubber made of all the fresh field latex was called WF and that made of micells and rubber fliaments was called SCR 5, which was the first change of underlying delivery commodity. The premium design of the WF and RSS3 in the underlying delivery commodity made the RSS3 a good stopper, and RSS3 could enter the market and limit the price when futures prices were maliciously manipulated.
2011 was a year of great growth in the history of natural rubber futures market. In 2011, the contract size increased from 5 tons to 10 tons, and the warehouse receipts with a nominal value of 5 tons were also converted into standard warehouse receipts of 10 tons each. In the limit system of individual customers, the hedging transaction position was divided into the general monthly hedging trading position and the hedging trading position near the delivery month, which reduced the excessive short-term speculative behavior, increased industrial customers' positions in general months, made the supply and demand relationship near the delivery month more realistic than speculative and the whole rubber industry more rational. In the same year, domestic natural rubber futures market also implemented the registration management system for delivery commodities, and both the quality and service of the delivery commodity were regulated. So far, the relevant framework foundations about the delivery of natural rubber are basically established.
In the following years, the 40Kg package has been eliminated, and new delivery brand has been introduced, and warehouse has been replaced, and the price of natural rubber futures has become the authoritative price and wind vane of the industry, and the pricing system has completed the transition from spot to futures. Many companies use natural rubber futures to avoid risks and smooth profits, and more trade companies have reshaped the rubber trade pattern through price pointing and basis trading.
In Yunnan and Hainan, since 2017, the SHFE has carried out large-scale projects of insurance and futures for poor rubber farmers and served “three rural issues” and targeted poverty alleviation through futures and OTC options for three consecutive years.
2019 is destined to be the year of change in the natural rubber series of derivatives in the SHFE. After years of hard work, 2019 has become a harvest year. At the beginning of the year, natural rubber options were listed, which provided more tools for risk management. In the middle of the year, standard warehouse receipts of natural rubber were listed, and authoritative prices went from online to offline. In August, the long-awaited TSR 20 futures will be listed, which will be the best footnote for the year of change.
Natural rubber is a futures variety highly correlated with the Belt and Road Initiative. As the world's largest consumer of natural rubber, China imports a large amount of TSR 20 from Southeast Asia every year. In the past, due to the difference of underlying delivery commodities, it was very difficult for tire and other industries to directly participate in natural rubber futures, and the listing of TSR 20 would definitely change this situation. As an international trading platform, the TSR 20 futures will follow the crude oil model and be denominated in RMB and introduce foreign traders to participate. The listing of TSR 20 futures will provide more risk hedging tools for trade companies and tire factories and arbitrage tools for more investors to participate in the arbitrage of two varieties. The subdivision of the two varieties and the participation of foreign investors will better reflect the fundamentals of the two varieties in the future, making the price discovery function more precise and the rubber price in the SHFE more authoritative.

天然橡胶期货的“成人礼”
7月5日，上海国际能源交易中心发布20号胶期货标准合约及相关细则征求意见的通知。经过多年的潜心研究和精心准备后，20号胶期货终于到了上市的最后冲刺阶段。笔者前前后后大约研究了10年的橡胶，看到这个消息的时候不禁思绪万千。天然橡胶期货这一路走来跨过多少沟沟坎坎，在不断与时俱进的过程中，天然橡胶期货逐渐成长成熟，在市场多年呼吁之后，天然橡胶期货马上将迎来自己的“成人礼”。

在变革中成长
1993年3月，上海化工交易市场（上期所的前身之一）推出了国内第一个天然橡胶期货合约。同年11月，当时的海南中商期货交易所也上市了天然橡胶期货合约。1997年R708事件使得海南中商期货交易所停止，上期所RU成为国内天然橡胶期货的独苗。此后，这颗独苗日益茁壮，不断跟随着时代的进步而成长。
听老一辈的研究员说研究合约是一件非常有意思的事情，从合约里可以看到很多有趣的故事和独具匠心的设计。以交割标的来说，最早的交割标的是SCR5，也就是平时大家说的5号胶，后来因为国标将不同原料、工艺路线的5号胶分开，以全部新鲜的田间胶乳制成的称为WF，而由胶团胶丝等制成的称为5号胶，交易所对交割标的进行了一次变更，这也是笔者所知道的第一次与时俱进。而交割标的中WF和RSS3平水设计，也使得3号烟胶片成为良好的“限位器”：当资金恶意爆炒时，烟胶片就能进入平抑价格。
这中间还有一个小插曲，3号烟胶片实行产地认证交割，除了大家熟知的主产国泰国、马来西亚及印尼以外，还有一个令人感到意外的名字——斯里兰卡。今天的斯里兰卡已经没有多少烟胶片生产了，但依然名列其中，或许是对解放初期中国被封锁时，斯里兰卡通过“大米换橡胶”帮助我们打破封锁的感谢吧。
2011年是笔者印象中天然橡胶期货大成长的一年，当年合约规模从5吨提到了10吨，相应的原面值5吨一张的仓单也每两张转换为10吨的标准仓单；同时还实行了个人客户的限仓制度，套期保值交易头寸划分为一般月份套期保值交易头寸和临近交割月份套期保值交易头寸，缩减短线客的过度投机行为的同时，又尽可能地扩大了产业客户在一般月份的头寸，近月交割也更倾向于实盘供需而非投机需求，整个行业更趋于理性。同年，国产天然橡胶还实行了交割商品注册管理制度，交割品有了约束，不论是质量还是服务都上了一个新台阶。至此，如今我们看到的关于天然橡胶交割的相关框架基础基本确立。
随后的几年，40kg包装淘汰、新交割品牌的进入、仓库的更替、交割厂的更迭，这一品种在交易所的精心呵护下吹呴呼吸、吐故纳新。天然橡胶期货价格也成为产业的权威价格和风向标，产业定价完成了从现货到期货的转变。很多企业通过天然橡胶期货规避风险、平滑利润，更多的贸易企业通过点价、基差等工具重塑了橡胶贸易的格局。
从2017年起，上期所已连续3年大规模开展针对云南、海南两省贫困胶农的“保险+期货”项目，通过期货、场外期权等工具服务“三农”，为精准扶贫贡献期货力量。
2019年注定是上期所天然橡胶系列衍生品的变革之年，经过这几年的辛勤工作，今年成为丰收之年。年初天然橡胶期权上市，衍生品工具队伍壮大，为产业避险提供了更多的选择；年中天然橡胶标准仓单交易挂牌上线，权威价格从线上走到线下；8月份，产业千呼万唤的20号胶期货又要上市，可以说是变革之年的最好注脚。

血统纯正的“一带一路”品种
天然橡胶是一个带着“一带一路”深深烙印的品种，我国作为全球天然橡胶的最大消费国，每年从东南亚进口大量20号胶，过去苦于标的差异而难以直接参与期货的轮胎等行业终于盼来了这个最重要、最具代表性的品种登上舞台。复制原油期货模式、国际平台、人民币计价、全面引入境外交易者参与，也给了大家一个惊喜。这个血统纯正的“一带一路”品种更贴近实体经济，丰富了风险管理工具组合，给广大贸易商、轮胎厂提供了合适的风险对冲工具，为更多投资者参与两个品种的套利提供了工具。两个品种的细分以及境外的参与，未来能更好地反映两个品种各自的基本面情况，使得价格发现功能更精准，上海价格更权威。
细数研究橡胶10年间的种种，笔者觉得自己赶上了好时候，2019年必定将铭记在天然橡胶的史册。这变革的一年，工具的不断丰富、线上与线下更多的互动都将深深地影响每一个橡胶人。而8月天然橡胶的“成人礼”——20号胶期货的上市，或许将会改变更多的东西。感谢20年间为天然橡胶期现货付出的所有人，感谢精心呵护天然橡胶的交易所，是产业的一致努力让这变革的一天到来。
愿橡胶人在新的旅程上一帆风顺。