On October 8, domestic crude oil futures soared in the midnight trading period of domestic futures market, when crude oil prices in the external market were in a downturn. The main contract, 1911, soared sharply near the closing time, reaching a maximum of 470 yuan/barrel, up more than 6.5%. After the opening of the market on October 9, the price of the contract fell rapidly, but the whole day's rise was around 3%.

Analysts said that closing large short positions were the main cause of the abnormal rise in crude oil futures prices during the domestic night trading period on October 8, while the rise in crude oil freight and RMB fluctuations were the main reasons for the recent domestic oil price to be stronger than the external market. After the stabilization of crude oil freight, the trend of domestic crude oil futures may not be able to keep independence.

Night market surge

Affected by the downturn of crude oil prices in the external market during the long holiday period, crude oil futures remained weak after the opening of domestic futures market on October 8. However, the seemingly insipid night trading period, but staged a flat thunder scene. Towards the close, the main contract of 1911 for crude oil futures rose rapidly, with prices soaring from 456.2 yuan per barrel to 469.3 yuan per barrel, closing at 466.8 yuan per barrel, up 6.77%.

Although the main 1911 contract of crude oil futures dived sharply after the opening of domestic futures market on October 9, the whole day's rise was almost around 3%, closing at 449.3 yuan/barrel, up 2.77%, intraday turnover increased by 210,000 to 254,000 lots, and positions decreased by 1126 to 25848 lots.

"On the trading level, before the closing of the domestic futures market at night on October 8, the direct cause of the sharp rise in the price of Shanghai crude oil futures was closing large short position.” Sui Xiaoying, chief analyst of crude oil at a futures company research department, told China Securities Journal.

Li Lei, a chemical researcher at a futures company, also believes that "short stop-loss liquidation is the main reason for the surge of domestic crude oil futures." On October 8, when the domestic crude oil futures market closed at night, the price of the main 1911 contract rose rapidly by more than 10 yuan/barrel, reaching the stop-loss point set by the short, triggering the automatic short closing operation of the risk management program, while a large number of short positions at the same time caused a serious squeezing phenomenon, which made the multi-short balance of the market skewed to a long position, causing the price to rise by 2.35% in the last minute.

"On October 8, when the domestic futures market closes, Shanghai crude oil futures' temper is a reasonable reflection of the market fundamentals." She Jianyue, assistant general manager of a futures company, commented.

Outstanding Branch

Since September, the trend of domestic crude oil futures has been stronger than that of the external market as a whole. Wenhua financial data show that since September, the main domestic crude oil futures contracts of 1911 have increased by 3.05%, while the main contracts of NYMEX and Brent crude oil have decreased by 4.66% and 2.03% respectively in the same period.

Why does domestic crude oil futures show a trend independent of the external market?

From the monthly difference point of view, She Jianye thinks that, in the case of OPEC continued to reduce production, Saudi oil facilities on September 14 were suddenly attacked by unmanned aerial vehicles, resulting in a temporary interruption of 5.7 million barrels per day production capacity. Although Saudi Arabia has announced that production has been restored, Saudi light crude oil exports are still affected to some extent. Some customers have adjusted Saudi light crude oil to Saudi heavy and medium crude oil. The delivery oil is relatively close to Saudi light crude oil. As a result, the Saudi incident has exacerbated the recent tension in the spot market of benchmark oil in the Middle East. Oman crude oil futures first and second line contract price spreads of $1.5 per barrel, oil prices since the rise of Saudi Arabia, the monthly spread continued to maintain high, showing the strength of spot in the Middle East.

During the closing period of domestic futures market on October 8, the price difference between Shanghai crude oil futures contract 1911 and 1912 reached 10 yuan per barrel, which is to follow the Oman crude oil monthly difference market.

Li Lei believes that under the circumstance of falling international oil prices, the main reason for the strong rise of domestic crude oil futures price is that the operation issue of a company with 52 VLCC tankers, a total carrying capacity of 15.78 million tons, which has affected the global capacity of 6.5% VLCC tankers. The unprecedented tension of crude oil transportation market, the soaring freight of tankers from the Middle East to China, and Shanghai crude oil futures to purchase crude oil from the Middle East. Bonded delivery and higher freight directly lead to higher delivery cost of crude oil futures, which further promotes the rise of domestic oil prices.

She Jianyue said that macro-disturbance incidents triggered more market worries and that under the resonance of fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, it is also reasonable that the price of crude oil in the inner market reflects the fundamentals with an unusual trend.

Fear of persistence

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, industry insiders believe that the independent operation of domestic crude oil futures will be difficult to sustain.

Sui Xiaoying believes that in the future, the trend of domestic crude oil prices will still be linked with crude oil on the outside. On the demand side, the global economy has been weakening and the demand for crude oil has been directly suppressed. This year, the three major energy agencies have continuously lowered their expectations for the growth of global crude oil demand this year and next year. In addition, from the perspective of stage demand, the U.S. market, the world's largest crude oil consumer, entered the off-season of oil consumption, and crude oil entered the accumulation cycle, which also depressed oil prices. On the supply side, although the supply of Saudi Arabia was drastically reduced in September due to the UAV attack, it has been basically restored. In addition, although OPEC maintains its policy of reducing production, there is limited room for further decline in OPEC production, and there is only an expectation of an increase in supply in the United States without a decrease. Therefore, the crude oil market fundamentals in the fourth quarter are still weak on the whole, and bearish oil price performance in the case of pessimistic expectations caused by macro disturbances.

Li Lei also believes that the future domestic crude oil prices will follow the trend of the external market, but the range is different. It is expected that after the stabilization of crude oil freight, domestic crude oil futures will not be able to survive alone, and will follow the international oil prices to fall synchronously. It is worth mentioning that the domestic oil price has stepped out of a unique upward trend, indicating that Shanghai crude oil futures have been able to reflect the balance between supply and demand of crude oil in China and even in the Asia-Pacific region, and gradually adapted to the role of benchmark crude oil in the Asia-Pacific region. Domestic oil prices will rise and fall differently from international oil prices when they are in line with international oil prices in the general direction. Under the situation of tight crude oil supply in the Asia-Pacific region, domestic oil prices will be stronger than international oil prices.

She Jianyue said that in the fourth quarter, the international crude oil market will continue to be a situation where macro-market pessimism and geo-risk are competing with each other, where the basic situation is strong and future expectations are pessimistic. Macroscopically, the correlation between crude oil and inflation expectations has weakened, and the Federal Reserve may further cut interest rates as economic indicators weaken. On the micro-level, OPEC on the supply side continued to reduce oil production, while shale oil production growth was hindered, which was more favorable to oil prices; on the demand side, oil institutions lowered their global oil demand expectations for this year and next year, which was less favorable to oil prices. The forthcoming new ship fuel oil specification will boost the demand for diesel oil and low sulfur ship fuel, and the structural contradictions will be favorable to the trend of crude oil to a certain extent. Overall, oil prices are expected to rise in the short term and repair some of the market.

10月8日国内期市夜盘交易时段，在外盘原油价格走势低迷之际，国内原油期货出现飙升，主力1911合约临近收盘时一度快速上冲，最高逼近470元/桶，大涨逾6.5％。10月9日期市开盘后，该合约价格一度快速回落，但全天涨幅围绕3％上下震荡。

分析人士表示，空头大单平仓是导致10月8日国内夜盘交易时段原油期价异常大涨的诱因，而原油运费上升及人民币波动则是近期国内油价强于外盘的主因。在原油运费稳定后，国内原油期货走势恐难以独善其身，或会继续跟随外盘运行。

夜盘大涨

受“十一”长假期间外盘原油价格走势低迷影响，10月8日国内期市开盘后，原油期货整体维持偏弱震荡。然而，当晚看似平淡的夜盘交易时段，却上演了平地响惊雷的一幕。在临近收盘之时，原油期货主力1911合约快速拉涨，价格一度从456.2元/桶飙升至469.3元/桶，收报466.8元/桶，涨6.77％。

虽然10月9日国内期市开盘后，原油期货主力1911合约出现快速跳水，但全天涨幅几乎围绕3％上下浮动，收报449.3元/桶，涨2.77％，日内成交量增21万手至25.4万手，持仓量减1126手至25848手。

“从交易层面上看，10月8日国内期市夜盘收盘前，空头大单平仓是导致上海原油期货价格大涨的直接原因。”一家期货公司研究院原油首席分析师隋晓影对中国证券报记者表示。

期货公司化工研究员黎磊也认为，“空头止损平仓是国内原油期货大涨的主因。”10月8日，临近国内原油期货夜盘收市之际，主力1911合约价格快速上涨超10元/桶，到达空头设置的止损点位，触发风控程序自动进行空头平仓操作，而大量的空头同时平仓造成严重的挤仓现象，使得市场的多空天平一下子偏向了多头，让价格在最后一分钟上涨2.35％。

“10月8日国内期市夜盘交易临近收盘之际，上海原油期货‘发脾气’是对市场基本面的一次合理反映。”一家期货总经理助理佘建跃对此评价道。

一枝独秀

9月以来国内原油期货走势整体强于外盘。文华财经数据显示，9月以来，国内原油期货主力1911合约累计上涨3.05％，而同期NYMEX、布伦特原油主力合约跌幅分别约为4.66％、2.03％。

国内原油期货缘何会呈现独立于外盘的走势？

从月差角度来看，佘建跃分析，在欧佩克持续减产的情况下，9月14日沙特石油设施突然遭遇无人机袭击，导致570万桶/日产能临时中断。虽然目前沙特方面宣布产量已恢复，但沙特轻原油出口仍受到一定影响，一些客户将沙特轻质原油调节为沙特重、中原油。而交割油种就是相对贴近沙特轻质原油的油种。因此，沙特事件加剧了近期中东标杆油种现货市场的紧张程度。阿曼原油期货的首行和次行合约价差达到1.5美元/桶，油价自沙特事件冲高后，月差持续维持高位，显示出中东地区现货的强势。

10月8日国内期市收盘交易时段，上海原油期货1911合约与1912合约价差就达到了10元/桶，就是对阿曼原油月差市场的跟随。

黎磊认为，在国际油价下跌的情况下，国内原油期价强势上涨的重要原因是国内某能源运输巨头旗下52艘载重量总计达1578万吨VLCC油轮经营受阻，影响全球6.5％的VLCC油轮运力，原油运输市场空前紧张，中东到中国的油轮运费暴涨，而上海原油期货以采购中东原油进行保税交割，运费增加直接导致原油期货的交割成本上升，进而推动国内油价上涨。

佘建跃表示，宏观扰动事件诱发了更多市场担忧情绪以及在人民币汇率出现波动的共振下，内盘原油价格以一种不寻常的走势来反映基本面也在情理中。

恐难持久

展望四季度，业内人士认为，国内原油期货独立运行态势恐难持续。

隋晓影认为，后市来看，国内原油价格走势仍会与外盘原油形成联动。从需求层面上看，全球经济持续走弱，对原油需求形成直接压制，今年三大能源机构连续下调今明两年全球原油需求增长预期。另外，从阶段性需求来看，全球最大的原油消费国美国市场进入油品消费淡季，原油进入累库周期，亦对油价形成打压。从供给层面上看，虽然9月份沙特遭无人机袭击事件导致供应一度大幅减少，但目前已经基本恢复供给。此外，虽然OPEC维持减产政策，但当前OPEC产量进一步下降空间较有限，美国供给也只有增加的预期并无下降的预期。因此，四季度原油市场基本面整体来看仍偏弱，在宏观扰动事件带来较悲观预期的情况下，看空油价表现。

黎磊也认为，后市国内原油价格运行方向将跟随外盘走势，但幅度有所不同。预计在原油运费稳定后，国内原油期货恐难以独善其身，将跟随国际油价出现同步下跌。值得一提的是，本次国内油价走出独树一帜的涨势，说明上海原油期货已能够反映中国甚至亚太地区的原油供需平衡状况，逐步适应了亚太地区基准原油的角色。国内油价在大方向上与国际油价保持一致的情况下，涨跌幅度将与国际油价有所不同，在亚太地区原油供给偏紧的局面下，国内油价将强于国际油价。

佘建跃则表示，进入四季度，国际原油市场仍将是宏观市场悲观情绪和地缘风险相互抗衡、基本面的现状强势和未来预期悲观相抗衡的局面。宏观方面，原油对通胀预期的关联有所减弱，且经济指标弱化下，美联储可能进一步降息。而微观方面，供应端，石油供给侧欧佩克继续保持减产，而页岩油产量增速受阻，对油价偏利多；需求端，各石油机构均下调今明两年全球石油需求预期，对油价偏利空。即将实行的船舶燃料油新规范利好柴油和低硫船燃的需求，届时产生的结构性矛盾将在一定程度上利好原油走势。综合来看，油价短期有望震荡上行，修复部分行情。